Scientists' Uncertainty and Disagreement about Global Climate Change: A Psychological Perspective

Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists' judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made despite continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. The best that policy makers can do is look for guidance in the best available expert judgment. But when the best experts express great uncertainty and disagree, as seems to be the case with the greenhouse effect, policy makers are unsure about how to proceed. Despite its importance, scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect has not been systematically studied. Psychological research on expert judgment and decision making provides theory, methods, and empirical results that can be used to study judgments based on uncertain and incomplete data and can help to explain the sources of expert uncertainty and disagreement regarding the greenhouse effect. Possible explanations are discussed.     

Lessons Learned from the National Arts and Youth Demonstration Project: Longitudinal Study of a Canadian After-School Program

We discuss some of the lessons the investigators learned during the development, implementation, and dissemination phases of the National Arts and Youth Demonstration Project (NAYDP). The lessons learned are relevant to various groups involved in large-scale, multi-site, community-based intervention studies: parents, youth, researchers, project staff, policy makers, and funders. Specific lessons learned include: (1) how to engage the community; (2) methodological lessons, including cross-site training and monitoring adherence to research protocol; (3) recruiting and sustaining involvement of parents and youth; (4) program development; and (5) dissemination strategies.     

Loss Aversion and Foreign Policy Resolve

This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how loss aversion affects foreign policy resolve. We theorize that U.S. policy makers are more resolute in pursuing preventive policies that seek to avoid losses than they are in pursuing promotive policies that seek to acquire new gains. To test our theory, we conduct the first large‐n analysis of foreign policy hypotheses derived from the neuroscience of loss aversion using data from 100 cases of U.S.‐initiated Section 301 trade disputes. The results provide strong support for the loss‐aversion‐based theory, revealing that American policy makers are willing to fight harder and hold out longer in trade disputes with preventive objectives than they are in cases with promotive ones. Our study demonstrates that hypotheses derived from neuroscientific findings can be tested using large‐n techniques in study of foreign policy, revealing a new avenue of inquiry within the field.     

行为社会政策：“助推”公共福利的实践与探索

行为社会政策是基于人的行为特点而设计, 使用“助推”作为政策工具来执行的社会政策。它是行为科学在社会政策范畴的应用, 其原理在于洞察人们做选择时的行为偏好, 以隐性且非明显经济刺激的方式谋求公众利益。从政策制定者的角度出发, 基于自愿性和信息性的统一, 可将行为社会政策中的助推策略分为增加策略、减少策略和转换策略; 三大策略被用于再住院率、儿童健康、社区养老、入学资助、就业问题、器官移植和精准扶贫等民生领域, 帮助人们做出更好的选择, 提高公共福利。作为一种新兴的方法和技术, 助推并非万能, 需要政策制定者对症下药、精确识别、权衡使用, 规避“行为官僚”, 才能真正实现国家治理现代化和社会利益最大化。     

Issues in psychotherapeutic encounters of patients suspected of post-traumatic stress disorder malingering

The literature indicates on high rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) malingering in various mental health settings but only few articles relate to therapeutic encounters with this population. The aim of this article is to present some of the difficulties that characterize psychotherapeutic encounters with patients suspected of PTSD malingering, and to examine the vicissitudes of significant elements of psychotherapy during these complex clinical situations. Some therapeutic interventions and indications that may help therapists to distinguish between patients with exaggerated symptomatology who suffer from true mental distress, and from full malingerers are also provided. It is argued that therapists and policy makers should relate to PTSD malingering more seriously due to the negative consequences of this phenomenon.     

Understanding Affirmative Action

The purpose of this article is to lay a conceptual groundwork that is needed if social scientists and policy makers are to design and implement fair and effective affirmative action programs. Because affirmative action is not well understood, in or out of the academy, the article starts with definitions, both general and technical, contrasts affirmative action with equal opportunity, and touches on the distinction between policy and practice. I then argue that affirmative action is a necessary policy, that it can be effective, and that it is fair. But the policy is for three other reasons: (a) it focuses on deficiencies, (b) it disturbs expectations, and (c) it poses a threat to individualism, interfering with self-congratulations.     

Responsible Research: What is Expected?

"Responsible research" and "good science" are concepts with various meanings depending on one's perspective and assumptions. Fellow researchers, research participants, policy makers and the general public also have differing expectations of the benefits of research ranging from accurate and reliable data that extend the body of knowledge, to solutions to societal concerns. Unless these differing constituencies articulate their differing views they may fail to communicate and undermine the value of research to society.     

Truth or consequences: the role of philosophers in policy-making

Reflecting on his experiences as a staff philosopher on the President's Commission for the Study of Ethical Problems in Medicine and Biomedical and Behavioral Research and with other advisory bodies, Brock contends that there is a deep conflict between the goals and constraints of the public policy process and those of scholarly activity in general and philosophical activity in particular. Whereas unconstrained search for the truth is the central virtue of scholarly work, the first concern of policy makers is the impact of their actions on policies and people. The need to persuade policy makers and to maintain their own credibility leads philosophers to cut and trim their views. While the philosophers should be open to radical change if persuasive argument supports it, policy makers deal in incremental change. Philosophers can help widen the policy agenda, but their contribution should be limited and temporary and their primary base should remain an academic one.     

Problem Representation,Option Generation,and Poliheuristic Theory: An Experimental Analysis

Poliheuristic (PH) theory has received strong empirical support for its depiction of the option selection process: it explains how leaders evaluate, weigh, and ultimately choose among a set of policy options. But PH theory does not explain how this initial set of options is generated. Foreign policy problem representation (PR) research has shown that the way in which leaders mentally represent decision problems determines which options are generated for consideration. In this article, we develop a hybrid PR‐PH framework in which leaders’ problem representations drive an unconscious screening process that occurs prior to the conscious screening of PH stage 1. We test hypotheses drawn from this framework experimentally and find that key elements of PR (most notably, perceived threat) determine which options consciously occur to decision makers and which options are not generated during a simulated foreign policy crisis.     

Synthesizing Single-Case Research to Identify Evidence-Based Practices: Some Brief Reflections

The purposes of this paper are to (a) propose an operational standard for defining a ??practice,?? (b) encourage development of professional standards for visual and statistical analysis of single-case research, and (c) propose a standard for using single-case research results to identify practices that are ??evidence-based.?? These topics are not new for behavioral researchers, but they become critical for the larger conversations now occurring among researchers, policy makers, and educators working to implement effective practices in psychology and education.     

Poverty and child outcomes: a focus on Jamaican youth

Compared with children from more affluent families, poor children face a higher risk of developmental delays and fare worse on various measures of developmental outcomes. This paper examines the relationship between poverty and child outcomes in the Jamaican context. Specifically, the paper focuses on the detrimental consequences for poor Jamaican children. The literature is reviewed on the effects of economic disadvantage on children and the short- and long-term implications for individuals and society is discussed. In addition, the modus operandi and implications for human development utilizing a theoretical model that hypothesizes the associations among economic deprivation and various aspects of child well-being is examined. Suggestions to policy makers for addressing the issues related to economically deprived families and children are offered.     

Using Ethnography to Inform Policy and Programs for the Integration of Immigrants: a Case Study in Andalusia,Spain

This paper seeks to extend the utility of ethnography to the planning of successful integration policy and programs for immigrants. I posit that, through a better understanding of the multiple and intersecting contexts in which immigration is located, especially in regard to how culture informs the way that host nationals frame immigration, policy makers and social scientists can work together to formulate policies and programs appropriate to local contexts that are more successful at fostering communities of inclusion and cohesion. Findings from a small ethnographic study completed in Andalusia, Spain, illustrate how experience-near approach, ethnographic research reveals opportunities for co-operation between host nationals and newcomers that can be used by policy makers and others concerned with the welfare of immigrants to foster integration and to promote social cohesion. In doing so, findings from this study demonstrate that culture is not simply a contested site used by members of the dominant group to exclude newcomers, but also a site in which there is the potential for co-operation between members of a community.     

Leader-focused search: The impact of an emerging preference on information search

This article examines the influence an emerging preference (i.e., a leader) has on predecisional information search. We explore two possibilities. First, decision makers may seek information they expect will support their leader (leader-supporting search). Second, decision makers may seek information about their leader, irrespective of the expected valence of the information (leader-focused search). Across various studies, product domains and experimental designs, we consistently find that decision makers engage in leader-focused search, not leader-supporting search. We also find that leader-focused search can steer decision makers towards information sources that are less important, less credible, and objectively suboptimal.     

Small Wins Matter in Advocacy Movements: Giving Voice to Patients

In this article, the various players are delineated in a story of a contested illness and patient advocacy, played out within the corridors of federal power. It is suggested that the mistreatment and negative attitudes that health care providers and others have towards those with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is possibly due to the social construction of this illness as being a "Yuppie flu" disease. Institutional factors are identified that created these norms and attributions, as well as the multiple stakeholders and constituent groups invested in exerting pressure on policy makers to effect systemic change. This article also provides examples of how the field of Community Psychology, which is fundamentally committed to/based on listening to and giving voice to patients, is broadly relevant to patient activism communities. This approach focused, over time, on epidemiological studies, the name, the case definition, and ultimately the change in CFS leadership at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Keys to this "small wins" approach were coalition building, use of "oppositional experts" (professionals in the scientific community who support patient advocacy goals) to challenge federal research, and taking advantage of developing events/shifts in power. Ultimately, this approach can result in significant scientific and policy gains, and changes in medical and public perception of an illness.     

Community Engagement to Facilitate,Legitimize and Accelerate the Advancement of Nanotechnologies in Australia

There are increasing calls internationally for the development of regulation and policies related to the rapidly growing nanotechnologies sector. As part of the process of policy formation, it is widely accepted that deliberative community engagement processes should be included, enabling publics to have a say about nanotechnologies, expressing their hopes and fears, issues and concerns, and that these will be considered as part of the policy process. The Australian Federal and State governments have demonstrated a commitment to these ideals, undertaking a number of public engagement activities in recent years. However, despite promises that these community engagement activities will enable policy makers to identify complex and contested community attitudes, and that these will be included as part of the policy making process, a closer look at Australia’s engagement activities reveals something quite different. Through an analysis of a number of Australia’s nano-engagement activities, this paper demonstrates the limits of public engagement related to the development of nanotechnology related policies and regulation in Australia. Our analysis reveals the extent to which industry interests have captured policy makers and regulators, dissenting voices have been excluded from engagement processes, and engagement processes have not connected with actual policy making activities. Reflecting on these limits, this paper concludes with recommendations for improving public engagement processes related to nanotechnologies in Australia.     

THE AUSTERITY POLICY AND THE RULE OF LAW: RELATIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC IN FLEDGLING ISRAEL 1

This article examines the concept of the rule of law as perceived by the Israeli public and decision‐makers during Israel’s early years. The purpose of the article is to examine the relationship between policy‐makers and the general public in the early stages of Israeli statehood. The “rule of law” is employed to facilitate greater understanding of the weaknesses or even failures of the austerity policy and to unveil some of the mechanisms leading to public disobedience, during times of nation‐building fervour. The roles of the public, policy‐makers, law enforcement apparatus and adjudicators in shaping the social order and economic reality is addressed.     

UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TEST VALIDITY AND BIAS ON SELECTION ERRORS AND ADVERSE IMPACT IN HUMAN RESOURCE SELECTION

We propose an integrative framework for understanding the relationship among 4 closely related issues in human resource (HR) selection: test validity, test bias, selection errors, and adverse impact. One byproduct of our integrative approach is the concept of a previously undocumented source of selection errors we call bias‐based selection errors (i.e., errors that arise from using a biased test as if it were unbiased). Our integrative framework provides researchers and practitioners with a unique tool that generates numerical answers to questions such as the following: What are the anticipated consequences for bias‐based selection errors of various degrees of test validity and test bias? What are the anticipated consequences for adverse impact of various degrees of test validity and test bias? From a theory point of view, our framework provides a more complete picture of the selection process by integrating 4 key concepts that have not been examined simultaneously thus far. From a practical point of view, our framework provides test developers, employers, and policy makers a broader perspective and new insights regarding practical consequences associated with various selection systems that vary on their degree of validity and bias. We present a computer program available online to perform all needed calculations.