Sustainability and Governmental Foresight

"Sustainability" is a popular term right now, but it needs considerable clarification, particularly as to whether growth itself is sustainable. Moreover, it is a meaningless abstraction unless ways are found of bringing it into political decisions. "Foresight" is the name of the process needed to bring lateral and long-term perspectives into those decisions and thus offer some hope of achieving sustainability. It has a long history but few successes. This article explores the obstacles to taking that step and ways in which it might be accomplished.     

The Great Sustainability Challenge: How Visitor Studies Can Save Cultural Institutions in the 21st Century

ABSTRACT

Sustainability will be the great challenge for many cultural institutions in the first quarter of the 21st Century. Changing patterns of government, corporate, and individual support, new demographics, and new ways of creating, preserving, and sharing information are all challenging the sustainability of museums and other cultural institutions. In 2001 a meeting of science museum leaders in Bristol identified 3 distinct but interacting dimensions to sustainability: financial, intellectual, and social. Financial crises are the most obvious threats to the survival of institutions, but intellectual and social weaknesses can be equally dangerous and can make a temporary financial problem fatal. Visitor studies have the potential to provide crucial understandings that cultural institutions will need to build new, more sustainable models than the ones which served the previous century.     

An Experiential, Game-Theoretic Pedagogy for Sustainability Ethics

The wicked problems that constitute sustainability require students to learn a different set of ethical skills than is ordinarily required by professional ethics. The focus for sustainability ethics must be redirected towards: (1) reasoning rather than rules, and (2) groups rather than individuals. This need for a different skill set presents several pedagogical challenges to traditional programs of ethics education that emphasize abstraction and reflection at the expense of experimentation and experience. This paper describes a novel pedagogy of sustainability ethics that is based on noncooperative, game-theoretic problems that cause students to confront two salient questions: “What are my obligations to others?” and “What am I willing to risk in my own well-being to meet those obligations?” In comparison to traditional professional ethics education, the game-based pedagogy moves the learning experience from: passive to active, apathetic to emotionally invested, narratively closed to experimentally open, and from predictable to surprising. In the context of game play, where players must make decisions that can adversely impact classmates, students typically discover a significant gap between their moral aspirations and their moral actions. When the games are delivered sequentially as part of a full course in Sustainability Ethics, students may experience a moral identity crisis as they reflect upon the incongruity of their self-understanding and their behavior. Repeated play allows students to reconcile this discrepancy through group deliberation that coordinates individual decisions to achieve collective outcomes. It is our experience that students gradually progress through increased levels of group tacit knowledge as they encounter increasingly complex game situations.     

The Social Psychology of Sustainability

The earth cannot support humanity's increasing population and consumption. Concerned scientists and citizens are therefore wondering how we might work toward a sustainable, survivable human future. Sustainability involves increased technological efficiency and agricultural productivity, but also incentives and attitudes that moderate consumption. Social psychology contributes to changing attitudes and behavior with evidence that a) materialism exacts psychic as well as environmental costs, and b) economic growth has failed to improve human morale. Two principles-the adaptation level phenomenon and social comparison-help explain why materialism and increasing affluence fail to satisfy.     

Sustainable Family Care for Children with Disabilities

The majority of parents want to continue caring for their sons and daughters with disabilities at home, and they are expected and actively encouraged to do so. Notwithstanding, and for reasons that are not well understood, a substantial number of parents seek to place their disabled son or daughter out-of-home. The aim of this study was to investigate the attitudes of parent-carers in Alberta, Canada, toward out-of-home placement. The primary objective was to identify factors that may explain why some families, and not others, seriously consider out-of-home placement as an option for their child. This knowledge is vital for developing social care policies and programs that support parents and promote sustainable family care for children with disabilities. A stratified (by child age group) random sample of 538 families raising children with disabilities in Alberta, Canada took part. Participants completed the family life survey, which incorporated measures of child and family characteristics, sustainability of the daily routine, and out-of-home placement propensity. Results suggest that family placement propensity is inversely associated with the sustainability of the daily routine. Sustainability of the daily routine is, in turn, more strongly associated with social-ecological resources, including parental control-over-work and the adequacy of child care options, than with child characteristics, including activity limitations and behaviour problems. If families have the social-ecological resources they need to create and maintain a daily routine that is congruent with their values and goals, and with the needs, interests and competences of family members, then they are unlikely to give out-of-home placement any serious consideration.     

The dragons of inaction: pychological barriers that limit climate change mitigation and adaptation

Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure are part of the answer, but psychological barriers also impede behavioral choices that would facilitate mitigation, adaptation, and environmental sustainability. Although many individuals are engaged in some ameliorative action, most could do more, but they are hindered by seven categories of psychological barriers, or "dragons of inaction": limited cognition about the problem, ideological world viewsthat tend to preclude pro-environmental attitudes and behavior, comparisons with key other people, sunk costs and behavioral momentum, discredence toward experts and authorities, perceived risks of change, and positive but inadequate behavior change. Structural barriers must be removed wherever possible, but this is unlikely to be sufficient. Psychologists must work with other scientists, technical experts, and policymakers to help citizens overcome these psychological barriers.     

Residents’ Perceived Quality Of Life in a Cultural-Heritage Tourism Destination

Seasonal phenomena for a tourism destination may be key factors influencing residents’ perceived quality of life, in particular, during peak tourism seasons. Furthermore, these challenges may influence residents’ attitudes toward tourism support in the host community. Numerous studies have discussed the major impacts of tourism, such as economic benefits, social concerns, environmental sustainability, and their associations with residents’ attitudes toward tourism support in the host community. However, few studies have incorporated attributes of seasonal factors into variables regarding residents of the area, including dissatisfaction of living in the community, unsafe feeling due to rise in crime, frustration with traffic, and disruption of quality of life during peak tourism seasons. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate influences of seasonal attributes on residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts and, in turn, residents’ perceived quality life in a cultural-heritage tourism destination. Salem, Massachusetts, was selected for the study site, due to this city’s rich history and cultural heritages that draw tourists from around the world. For example, Salem attracts more than four times its population during the entire month of October, due to the wide range of tourism resources, such as month-long events (Haunted Happenings) in its correlation with the historical event of the witch trials in 1692. Data analysis supported all six hypotheses. Results confirmed seasonal factor attributes adversely affected residents’ perceptions of economic benefits; seasonal attributes positively affected residents’ perceived social costs; seasonal attributes inversely influenced residents’ perceptions of environment sustainability; perceptions of economic benefits positively impacted residents’ perceived quality of life; perceived social costs adversely affected residents’ perceived quality of life; and perceived environment sustainability positively affected residents’ perceived quality of life. Findings from this study could assist tourism decision-makers and planners when establishing local tourism planning and provide strategies to ensure residents’ quality of life year round. More specified managerial implications are discussed as well as limitations of this study and suggestions for future study.     

Development of the Questionnaire on the Acceptance of Automated Driving (QAAD): Data-driven models for Level 3 and Level 5 automated driving

Automated driving comes with many promises like zero traffic casualties that are, however, only realizable given their technological development and public acceptance for wide-spread deployment. To investigate the potential acceptance, we developed a new data-driven questionnaire focusing on drivers and barriers of the anticipated possible (non-)adoption of automated driving (AD). Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire study with 725 respondents (351 female, 374 male) ranging from 18 to 96 years. We applied exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation modeling, to pursue the overarching goal to develop the QAAD questionnaire (short and long version for SAE Level 3 (L3) and 5 (L5) AD). Hence, we identified the three latent factors PRO (positive aspects), CON (negative aspects), and NDRTs (non-driving related tasks) of L3 (short: 9 items; long: 16) and L5 (short: 11, long: 17), respectively. Additionally, we queried general questions on AD (8 items) and extracted the two factors Early Adoption/Pro AD and Sustainability. Our findings and the goodness-of-fit indices suggest data-driven models for L3 and L5 automated driving and on general aspects focusing on early adoption and sustainability in the context of AD. They can be applied in future research settings, in particular, in (quasi-)experimental L3 and L5 AD studies and in population surveys on AD. The evidence of the presented study should be validated and compared to other questionnaires on AD in different countries around the globe.     

Understanding sustainability

Proposed solutions to sustainability often bring different economic sectors into conflict; when a sustainable solution for one sector is non-sustainable for another it creates what we call the dilemma of sustainability. A recent example took place in the Columbia Basin of the Pacific Northwest, involving competing notions of sustainability by fisheries and the energy industry. Taking up some ideas of Eger and Lyotard, we criticize the constructivist approach which treats large ecosystems as constructions and the process of resolving conflicts of sustainability as one solely consisting of negotiations involving the trading off of interests. We propose instead to treat such conflict resolution via a Gadamerian-inspired hermeneutics that sees different economic sectors as having different interpretations of sustainability and that aims at common understanding.     

Understanding sustainability

Proposed solutions to sustainability often bring different economic sectors into conflict; when a sustainable solution for one sector is non-sustainable for another it creates what we call the dilemma of sustainability. A recent example took place in the Columbia Basin of the Pacific Northwest, involving competing notions of sustainability by fisheries and the energy industry. Taking up some ideas of Eger and Lyotard, we criticize the constructivist approach which treats large ecosystems as constructions and the process of resolving conflicts of sustainability as one solely consisting of negotiations involving the trading off of interests. We propose instead to treat such conflict resolution via a Gadamerian-inspired hermeneutics that sees different economic sectors as having different interpretations of sustainability and that aims at common understanding.     

Decision‐Analytic Approach for Water Sustainability Definition: A Higher Education Case Study

The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a multi‐criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to circumscribe the definition of sustainability within an organization or institution with multiple operational divisions. Although our overall definition of sustainability is a process, the George Washington University (GW) definition of water sustainability is articulated through construction of an objective‐value hierarchy representing GW's strategic objectives and articulation of strength of preference among the attributes in that hierarchy. This study used multi‐criteria decision analysis methods, including structured interviews with four individual stakeholders and swing weighting. Three findings are of note. First, our stakeholders' thinking about their objectives was greatly influenced by perceived constraints and mandatory obligations on institutional performance implied by contracts or tradition. Second, in considering the trade‐off weights obtained from the swing‐weighting portion of the value assessment, all stakeholders placed similar emphasis on each of the fundamental objectives. Third, because of the decentralized nature of the university, the process through which the value assessment will be achieved must be transparent and accepted by each of the stakeholders supporting sustainability decisions. This case study illustrates a decision‐analytic sustainability approach that may be applied to large‐scale infrastructure systems, stakeholder engagement and negotiation in sustainability investments or alternatives assessments. Although the commitment to reduce climate impacts has been widespread, there have been fewer publicly announced water initiatives at the university level. At the university level, GW is only one of a handful of universities with a cohesive, visible, water plan. In addition, we demonstrate an approach in which explicit structuring of fundamental sustainability objectives may increase transparency for sustainability definition construction. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Unique Historical Case to Understand the Present Sustainable Development

Every innovation seeks to become a profitable business, with this considered to be the engine for economic prosperity. When an innovation is revolutionary, its long-term consequences can be revolutionary too. The Haber-Bosh process for ammonia synthesis is arguably the twentieth century’s most significant innovation, and its importance to global food production and its impact on the environment are not expected to diminish over the coming decades. The historical case of the ammonia synthesis process invented by Fritz Haber and the ensuing innovation provides an incomparable opportunity to illustrate the interactions across contemporary needs, prominent scientists, political concerns, moral dilemmas, ethics, governance and environmental implications at a time when the concept of sustainability was still in its infancy. Despite its high economic and environmental costs, no cleaner or more efficient sustainable alternative has so far been found, and so replacing this “old” innovation that still “feeds” a large part of the world’s population does not appear to be on the cards in the near future.     

Evaluating a Complex and Uncertain Future

Social systems are emergent complex systems that are prone to uncertainty and change. Complexity and uncertainty increase the difficulty of evaluating for sustainability. However, backcasting from visions of sustainability using indicators that are positively correlated to principles of sustainability allows for congruence and complexity in achieving the vision. This article presents a model of how this can be done using Causal Layered Analysis and the Ecological Framework. Reiterating the evaluation and visioning process allows for indicators to accommodate change while remaining relevant to sustainability principles.     

Afro-communal virtue ethic as a foundation for environmental sustainability in Africa and beyond

This paper addresses the question: Can an Afro-communal virtue ethic provide a plausible foundation for environmental sustainability? Drawing on Thaddeus Metz’s perspective and contributions to the Afro-communal ethic tradition, this paper examines the extent to which his proposal provides plausible grounds for environmental sustainability. Metz, in several essays, advances the need for an ethic of communion, which rests on the ubuntu (humanness) virtue principles of shared identity, solidarity, and participative empathy. This paper argues that Metz’s view is a version of virtue ethics, of which flourishing, care and goodwill are important aspects. While this African ethical construct has some limitations, this paper nevertheless maintains that it entails some virtues that have promising normative implications for environmental sustainability. Metz’s views on an Afro-communal virtue ethic is relevant to motivating behavioural changes in the environmental sustainability quest through its capacity to provoke salient virtuous attitudes and values of responsible inter-generational and intra-generational Earth stewardship. Though an African ethical construct, this paper argues that the potential foundational import of Metz’s proposal for environmental sustainability reaches far beyond the geopolitical boundaries of Africa.     

Sustainability in multi-religious societies: an Islamic perspective

The question of sustainability in multi-religious societies underscores interrelating theological, moral and cultural issues affecting the very process of social co-existence, cohesion and development. This article discusses Islam’s understanding of the question of sustainability in multi-religious contexts while highlighting the contribution of Islam’s spiritual, moral, and legal values to sustainability. This article sheds light on key Islamic concepts and core values related to sustainable development in multi-religious societies. The study of Islamic insights to sustainability offers valuable considerations for the understanding and amelioration of development in multi-religious or multi-cultural societies.     

The Sustainable Development Goals: a comment

The agreement on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a tremendous achievement. The goals represent an advance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), by aiming to eliminate poverty, by including an equality goal and by bringing sustainability into the agenda. Nonetheless, three outstanding issues remain. First, national ownership is likely to be a problem. The centrally agreed goals need to be interpreted nationally to allow for national priorities and circumstances and to secure national commitment to them. Secondly, the goals are silent on the underlying economic structures needed to realize some of the goals, particularly of reducing inequality. Existing economic structures and policies are likely to result in a move away from achievement of this goal. Thirdly, most important, there is not true integration of the sustainability and economic goals. The goal of promoting economic growth needs to be seriously qualified for middle and high income countries, if the sustainability objectives – particularly on carbon emissions – are to be realized. This requires either that economic growth should only be promoted if sustainability can be assured, or that growth is redefined as ‘green growth’ so that promoting economic growth and achieving sustainability become consistent.     

Defining the new concept of sustainable success – A state-of-the-art analysis on the phenomenon

Research on success and sustainability has been somewhat limited and narrow. Yet, in the current world, a positively oriented understanding about the concept of sustainable success is needed. The purpose of this research was to analyze what kind of research about sustainable success has been conducted and what the elements of sustainable success according to research found around this topic are. These questions were answered through a literature review or a state-of-the-art review that focused on nine articles that were chosen for a more detailed analysis. The findings illustrate how success and sustainability appeared as research targets and what the main elements of success and sustainability were in the data. None of the articles under review used positive psychological knowledge or strength-based approaches in their definition of success and sustainability. The need for a conceptual definition for sustainable success appeared evident. From the perspective adopted in this research, sustainable success consists of positive development, flourishing, and well-being, and also top performances. It is based on positive educational psychological knowledge. Educational psychological research alongside multidisciplinary perspectives can provide new and innovative ways of understanding and guiding people's behaviors toward sustainability.     

Assessment of Quality of Outcomes within a Local United Way Organization: Implications for Sustaining System Level Change

This paper provides a historical case study of efforts to implement and sustain "outcomes based funding" in a large United Way system in Central Ohio. The case study describes how community practitioners employed specific strategies to promote sustainability. The use of these strategies corresponds to several techniques suggested in the sustainability literature. This case study is offered as a means of considering how practitioners helped sustain the shift to outcomes based funding within the United Way system. In addition, this case study demonstrates how skills related to implementation and sustainability might be transferred to other situations where practitioners are interested in promoting change within large organizations and/or communities. The authors suggest that skills related to implementation and sustainability are essential to community practice.     

Economic Impact of the Statewide Implementation of an Evidence-Based Treatment: Multisystemic Therapy in New Mexico

Several states have made considerable investments into large-scale implementation of evidence-based treatments (EBTs), yet little is known about key success indicators for these implementation efforts such as cost and sustainability. To that end, the present study examined the economic impact of statewide implementation of multisystemic therapy (MST; Henggeler, Schoenwald, Borduin, Rowland, & Cuningham, 2009), a family- and community-based behavioral EBT for serious juvenile offenders in New Mexico. Participants were 1,869 youth who received MST across 23 teams during the study period. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis using metrics from state data sources that compared the cost of MST to its benefits (i.e., avoided expenses from pre- to posttreatment) in two domains: (a) behavioral health services (i.e., Medicaid claims) and (b) juvenile crime (i.e., taxpayer expenses, tangible and intangible expenses to crime victims). MST costs were based on Medicaid claims, which were reimbursed at an enhanced billing rate that was intended to cover expenses for both clinical and implementation (e.g., training, quality assurance) activities. Results suggest that implementation of MST in New Mexico over the 7-year study period may have produced net benefits, through 2 years posttreatment, of more than $4,643 per youth in avoided behavioral health claims and $15,019 per youth through reductions in juvenile crime. Stated differently, every dollar that New Mexico spent on MST appeared to have returned $3.34 for a total benefit of $64.2 million over the course of the study. We discuss implications of these findings for policymakers, administrators, and researchers who are interested in increasing the sustainability of complex EBTs in community settings.