The Future of Social‐Health Psychology: Prospects and Predictions

Social‐health psychology has made substantial contributions to health psychology and is poised to make many more in the future. Some new developments will come from empirical progress in theoretical and empirical social psychology that can elucidate the psychological mechanisms whereby social variables affect health. Others will come from technological advances, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging, that will uncover mechanisms that underlie effects of stress, coping, persuasive communications, and other factors on health. Progress will also come from social psychologists’ increasing comfort with biological processes and measures, including genetics and neuroendocrine mechanisms. As such, social‐health psychology will not only continue to enrich both health psychology and social psychology, but increasingly be able to speak to intervention possibilities. Moreover, by virtue of its emphasis on psychobiological mechanisms, social‐health psychology leads the way for an expanding role of social psychology in the integrative science of the future.     

Unpacking Intuition: A Conjecture

ABSTRACT— Can intuition be taught? The way in which faces are recognized, the structure of natural classes, and the architecture of intuition may all be instances of the same process. The conjecture that intuition is a species of recognition memory implies that human intuitive decision making can be enormously enhanced by virtual simulation.     

The Hubris Hypothesis: You Can Self-Enhance, But You'd Better Not Show It

We tested whether and why observers dislike individuals who convey self-superiority through blatant social comparison (the hubris hypothesis). Participants read self-superiority claims ("I am better than others"; Experiments 1-7), noncomparative positive claims ("I am good"; Experiments 1-2, 4), self-equality claims ("I am as good as others"; Experiments 3-4, 6), temporally comparative self-superiority claims ("I am better than I used to be"; Experiment 5), other-superiority claims ("S/he is better than others"; Experiment 6), and self-superiority claims accompanied by persistent disclaimers (Experiment 7). They judged the claim and the claimant (Experiments 1-7) and made inferences about the claimant's self-view and view of others (Experiments 4-7) as well as the claimant's probable view of them (Experiment 7). Self-superiority claims elicited unfavorable evaluations relative to all other claims. Evaluation unfavorability was accounted for by the perception that the claimant implied a negative view of others (Experiments 4-6) and particularly of the observer (Experiment 7). Supporting the hubris hypothesis, participants disliked individuals who communicated self-superiority beliefs in an explicitly comparative manner. Self-superiority beliefs may provoke undesirable interpersonal consequences when they are explicitly communicated to others but not when they are disguised as noncomparative positive self-claims or self-improvement claims.     

Two Is Not Always Better Than One: A Critical Evaluation of Two-System Theories

ABSTRACT— Over the past two decades, there has been an upsurge in theoretical frameworks alluding to the existence of two different processing systems that supposedly operate according to different rules. This article critically examines the scientific advance offered by these theories (in particular advances in the domains of reasoning, decision making, and social cognition) and questions their theoretical coherence as well as the evidence for their existence. We scrutinize the conceptual underpinnings of two-system models and explicate the assumptions underlying these models to see whether they are reasonable. We also evaluate the empirical paradigms used to validate two-system models and ponder about their explanatory strength and predictive power. Given the popularity of these models, we discuss the appeal of two-system theories and suggest potential reasons for their prevalence. We comment on the potential costs associated with these models and allude to the desired nature of potential alternatives. We conclude that two-system models currently provide little scientific advance, and we encourage researchers to adopt more rigorous conceptual definitions and employ more stringent criteria for testing the empirical evidence in support for two-system theories.     

Risk-Taking and Creativity: Convergent,but Not Divergent Thinking Is Better in Low-Risk Takers

The relationship between risk-taking and creativity is critical to understanding social harmony and innovation. Although some studies have assessed the link between risk-taking and divergent thinking, the association between risk-taking and convergent thinking remains unclear. Two studies were conducted to systemically investigate whether risk-taking is linked to convergent thinking. In Study 1, a sample of 127 healthy participants performed a Chinese remote associate test (RAT) and completed a risk-taking questionnaire. As predicted, risk-taking was negatively correlated with RAT performance, implying that risk-taking has a negative association with convergent thinking. Study 2 was an online survey study that replicated Study 1 and extended the measures to include self-rated risk and a measure of divergent thinking (the alternate uses task). The findings were fully replicated, showing that low risk-taking goes with better convergent thinking and risk-taking was not significantly correlated with divergent thinking. Furthermore, the risk-taking/convergent-thinking relationship was best described by a linear regression model in both studies. Taken together, these results suggest that appropriate reductions in risk-taking can boost convergent thinking.     

Prospect Theory Predictions When Escalation Is Not the Only Chance to Recover Sunk Costs

Two experiments tested the effect of risk of alternative investment opportunities on decision behavior in an escalation context. In the first experiment (n = 170), the risk of the reinvestment option, which had been unsuccessful and incurred a sunk cost, was held equal to that of an alternative investment project. Responsibility for the previous decision was manipulated between these subjects. Subjects were required to choose between the reinvestment option and the alternative. Responsible subjects demonstrated classic reinvestment (escalation) tendencies, and nonresponsible subjects exhibited a significant tendency to avoid reinvestment. Subjects in the second experiment (n = 195) completed the same decision task and were also assigned to high and low responsibility conditions. In this experiment the risk of investing further in a previously chosen project, relative to the risk of the alternative project, was manipulated. Those subjects who were responsible for the first decision (a) demonstrated no preference for or against continued pursuit of the initial project (i.e., there was no escalation tendency) and (b) preferred the less risky of the second investments, regardless of whether it was or was not the initially chosen project. Nonresponsible subjects showed no risk preference or proclivity for reinvestment. The results of these experiments suggest that salient information concerning relative risk dominates the effect of prior performance information when alternative investments are considered. We discuss the implications of these findings for decision theory and for methodology in commitment escalation research.     

Unpacking Response Contingent Positive Reinforcement: Reward Probability,but Not Environmental Suppressors,Prospectively Predicts Depressive Symptoms via Behavioral Activation

Behavioral models of depression conceptualize the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms as occurring within a system of response-contingent positive reinforcement (RCPR). Such models propose a negative cycle in which a decrease in positive reinforcement of adaptive, approach-oriented behaviors (i.e., RCPR) results in reduced behavioral activation and increased depressive symptoms, which in turn feeds back into further decreases in positive reinforcement and maintains the cycle. Previous research indicates that RCPR has two lower-order constructs, reward probability and environmental suppressors. The present study evaluated a hypothesized mediational model in which the paths from each of the two domains of RCPR to depressive symptoms are mediated by behavioral activation. The sample consisted of 150 college students (78.0% women), ranging in age from 18 to 47 years (M = 20.81, SD = 3.96), who endorsed moderate to severe depressive symptoms at a baseline (time 1) evaluation. Findings from a path analysis provide support for the mediated path between reward probability at time 1 and depressive symptoms at time 3, via behavioral activation at time 2. In contrast, environmental suppressors at time 1 demonstrated a direct impact on depressive symptoms at time 3, and this relationship was not mediated by behavioral activation at time 2. These findings provide a partial test of behavioral frameworks and provide evidence of separate pathways between domains of RCPR and depressive symptoms.     

The Emergence of a Sustainable Future: Brainstorming Better Ways to Globalize at the Esalen Institute

This article provides excerpts and highlights from the insights of twenty global leaders, business executives, and sustainability experts who gathered at the Esalen Institute in California for four days in March 2002 to discuss how to best leverage change toward an environmentally sustainable and socially equitable global economy. The conference topic was sparked by the path-breaking book Natural Capitalism, which outlines an expanded vision of capitalism suitable for the environmental era. The natural capitalism model is qualitatively different from industrial era capitalism in that it counts both humanity and ecosystem services as valid sources of capital in addition to the traditionally recognized sources, financial and manufactured. One early adopter of natural capitalism, CEO of the Atlanta-based carpet tiling company, Interface, shared how increased efficiency and greater employee and customer satisfaction have resulted. Although some of the conference participants forecasted that globalization is likely to bring humanity face-to-face with a planetary-wide environmental, financial, and social crisis, the overall message of this gathering was positive. Through the imaginative implementation of evolutionary and biomimicry design models in the cultural, financial, and economic spheres, novel solutions to global problems already are being discovered, and, if such innovative and solutions-oriented design thinking can spread rapidly enough, humanity may be able to ameliorate-or even obviate-the deleterious effects of globalization.     

Feeling Closer to the Future Self and Doing Better: Temporal Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Academic Performance

This research examined the function of future self‐continuity and its potential downstream consequences for academic performance through relations with other temporal psychological factors and self‐control. We also addressed the influence of cultural factors by testing whether these relations differed by college generation status. Undergraduate students enrolled at a large public university participated in two studies (Study 1: N = 119, M_age = 20.55, 56.4% women; Study 2: N = 403, M_age = 19.83, 58.3% women) in which they completed measures of temporal psychological factors and psychological resources. In Study 2, we also obtained academic records to link responses to academic performance. Future self‐continuity predicted subsequent academic performance and was related positively to future focus, negatively to present focus, and positively to self‐control. Additionally, the relation between future focus and self‐control was stronger for continuing‐generation college students than first‐generation college students. Future self‐continuity plays a pivotal role in academic contexts. Findings suggest that it may have positive downstream consequences on academic achievement by directing attention away from the present and toward the future, which promotes self‐control. Further, the strategy of focusing on the future may be effective in promoting self‐control only for certain cultural groups.     

Training Psychologists for a Future in Evolving Health Care Delivery Systems: Building a Better Boulder Model

Recent and dramatic changes in the demand for and reimbursement of psychological services and expertise in health care delivery systems have radical implications for the preparation of psychologists at the predoctoral, internship, and postdoctoral levels. In order to respond to these changes effectively and advance the profession, training programs must realize the expanded and potential role of psychological expertise in evolving health care delivery systems. In this paper, we review several limitations and unfortunate consequences of traditional training programs that have confined the scope of research and practice to the realm of mental health. We propose that future psychologists be recognized and trained from a broader perspective as behavioral scientists, prepared to operate at the highest levels of health care delivery systems. Specific recommendations for training and education are discussed.     

The decay of short-term implicit memory: Unpacking lag

McKone (1995) reported a short-lived repetition priming effect, superimposed on long-lived priming. This short-term implicit memory survived a few intervening items and several seconds for words but decayed precipitously for nonwords, producing a lag 3 lexicality interaction. Here, mechanisms of decay are studied by disconfounding the time delay and interference components of lag. In Experiment 1, time delay was varied while number of intervening items was held constant, and vice versa. In Experiment 2, priming was plotted as a function of time delay, with and without intervening items. Using a lexical decision task, both experiments found independent contributions of time and interference to the decay of short-term priming. Further, Experiment 2 attributed the lag 3 lexicality interaction to a particular sensitivity of nonword traces to interference. An illustration of how these effects might arise in the word recognition system is provided.     

Unpacking cognitive reappraisal: goals, tactics, and outcomes

Studies of emotion regulation typically contrast two or more strategies (e.g., reappraisal vs. suppression) and ignore variation within each strategy. To address such variation, we focused on cognitive reappraisal and considered the effects of goals (i.e., what people are trying to achieve) and tactics (i.e., what people actually do) on outcomes (i.e., how affective responses change). To examine goals, we randomly assigned participants to either increase positive emotion or decrease negative emotion to a negative stimulus. To examine tactics, we categorized participants' reports of how they reappraised. To examine reappraisal outcomes, we measured experience and electrodermal responding. Findings indicated that (a) the goal of increasing positive emotion led to greater increases in positive affect and smaller decreases in skin conductance than the goal of decreasing negative emotion, and (b) use of the reality challenge tactic was associated with smaller increases in positive affect during reappraisal. These findings suggest that reappraisal can be implemented in the service of different emotion goals, using different tactics. Such differences are associated with different outcomes, and they should be considered in future research and applied attempts to maximize reappraisal success.     

Replication and p Intervals: p Values Predict the Future Only Vaguely, but Confidence Intervals Do Much Better

ABSTRACT— Replication is fundamental to science, so statistical analysis should give information about replication. Because p values dominate statistical analysis in psychology, it is important to ask what p says about replication. The answer to this question is "Surprisingly little." In one simulation of 25 repetitions of a typical experiment, p varied from <.001 to .76, thus illustrating that p is a very unreliable measure. This article shows that, if an initial experiment results in two-tailed p = .05, there is an 80% chance the one-tailed p value from a replication will fall in the interval (.00008, .44), a 10% chance that p < .00008, and fully a 10% chance that p > .44. Remarkably, the interval—termed a p interval —is this wide however large the sample size. p is so unreliable and gives such dramatically vague information that it is a poor basis for inference. Confidence intervals, however, give much better information about replication. Researchers should minimize the role of p by using confidence intervals and model-fitting techniques and by adopting meta-analytic thinking.     

I am Not a Better Teacher,But Others are Doing Worse: Burnout and Perceptions of Superiority Among Teachers

This study examined differences between teachers high and low in burnout in the perception of being superior to others. Because burnout implies a decline in well-being and because well-being is related to perceived superiority, it was hypothesized that perceived superiority would be reduced among individuals high in burnout. This would be particularly true for superiority with respect to positive behaviors (feeling better than others). As negative behaviors of others are generally highly salient, it was expected that even individuals high in burnout would be able to maintain a sense of negative superiority (feeling less bad than others). One hundred twenty teachers in secondary education were asked to generate information about inferior and superior others. Perceived superiority was assessed by response latencies and the quality of the information generated. As expected, only positive superiority was reduced among teachers high in burnout. Thus, they felt less good, but also less bad than others. Consequences for classroom performance and suggestions for the treatment of burnout are discussed.     

Accuracy of Clinician Predictions of Future Self‐Harm: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis of Predictive Studies

Assessment of a patient after hospital‐treated self‐harm or psychiatric hospitalization often includes a risk assessment, resulting in a classification of high risk versus low risk for a future episode of self‐harm. Through systematic review and a series of meta‐analyses looking at unassisted clinician risk classification (eight studies; N = 22,499), we found pooled estimates for sensitivity 0.31 (95% CI: 0.18–0.50), specificity 0.85 (0.75–0.92), positive predictive value 0.22 (0.21–0.23), and negative predictive value 0.89 (0.86–0.92). Clinician classification was too inaccurate to be clinically useful. After‐care should therefore be allocated on the basis of a needs rather than risk assessment.     

Emotion Regulation and Attachment: Unpacking Two Constructs and Their Association

This study examined the association between the security of attachment and processes influencing the development of emotion regulation in young children. A sample of 73 4 1/2-year-olds and their mothers were observed in an emotion regulation probe involving mild frustration for children, and mothers and children were later independently interviewed about how the child had felt. Fewer than half the mothers agreed with children’s self-reports in the emotion they attributed to children (a lower rate than the concordance of observer ratings with children’s self-reports), and higher mother-child concordance was associated with secure attachment and mother’s beliefs about the importance of attending to and accepting their own emotions. Mother-child conversations about recent events evoking children’s negative emotion were also analyzed. Children were less likely to avoid conversing about negative feelings when they were in secure attachments and when mothers were more validating of the child’s perspective. Children’s greater understanding of negative emotions was also significantly associated with higher mother-child concordance and less child conversational avoidance. Taken together, these findings underscore the multiple influences of attachment on emotion regulation and the importance of children’s emotion understanding to these processes.