The Politics of Choice: Political Ideology and Intolerance of Ambiguity

The authors examine how political ideology impacts consumer preferences for hedonic and utilitarian choices and the underlying reasons for these differences. Five studies indicate that conservatives are less tolerant of ambiguity than liberals, leading to a preference for utilitarian options, whereas liberals are more tolerant of ambiguity leading to a preference for hedonic options. However, these preferences were reversed when utilitarian options were framed as ambiguous and hedonic options were framed as explicit and clear.     

Is luck on my side? Optimism,pessimism, and ambiguity aversion

The influences of optimism and pessimism on ambiguity aversion were investigated in two tasks that manipulated the presence or absence of a potentially competitive experimenter. A total of 112 participants chose which option—ambiguous or known-risk—they preferred in the two slightly differing Ellsberg urns tasks. Optimism was measured using the Extended Life Orientation Test (ELOT). Highly optimistic people showed significantly less ambiguity aversion than less optimistic people when information was given that the number of balls was randomly determined. This pattern was present but less pronounced in the condition when the composition of the ambiguous urn could be interpreted as being influenced (rigged) by the experimenter. Pessimism was uninfluential. Perceptions of the situation, especially the degree of trust in the experimenter, were significantly influenced by the participants' optimism. People who do not have highly optimistic personalities tend to shy away from choosing ambiguous options. When ambiguity is clear, and trust issues are removed, people's optimistic outlook influences their degree of ambiguity aversion and thus their decisions.     

Implicit awareness of ambiguity: a role in the development of obsessive-compulsive disorder

The cognitive-behavioral model of obsessive-compulsive disorder proposes that obsessional symptoms are the consequence of the manner in which intrusive cognitions are interpreted [e.g., Salkovskis, P. M. (1998). Cognitive-behavioral approach to understanding obsessional thinking. British Journal of Psychiatry, 173(35S), 53-63]. The present study suggests that this may be attributable to maladaptive implicit cognitive processing, a deficit that results in the explicit awareness of ambiguity in idiographic obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) stimuli. The present study examines decision-making responses of low and high OCD scorers in a non-clinical undergraduate sample. Via a computer console, participants were shown sentence statements for three levels of ambiguity. They were then presented with a propositional statement for which they had to indicate agreement or disagreement for sentences of varying ambiguity. After this, the participants indicated whether they were completely confident or unconfident as regards their previous agree-disagree decisions. Results indicate that the high compared to the low OCD scoring group had less agreement and subsequent less confidence in decisions made for sentences of varying ambiguity. Response latencies partially fitted the predicted hypotheses. Consequently, an addition to Salkovskis, Forester, and Richards' [1998. Cognitive-behavioral approach to understanding obsessional thinking. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 173(35S), 53-63] model of OCD is suggested: namely that an implicit ambiguity deficit mediates the likelihood of normally occurring intrusions developing into abnormal obsessions. Methodological limitations and future research are considered.     

不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性*

研究以Ellsberg选瓶任务为决策材料,探讨了不同任务特征下个体不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响。结果发现,获益情景下:高概率时高、低容忍度个体对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均偏好模糊规避;中概率时低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体表现出更低程度的模糊规避,前者倾向于模糊中立,后者倾向于模糊规避;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊中立。损失情景下:高概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊寻求;中概率时低容忍度比高容忍度个体更偏好模糊寻求,前者倾向于模糊寻求,后者倾向于模糊中立;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊规避。这表明,不确定性容忍度对模糊决策偏好产生作用,但这种作用会受到损益概率和损益结果的影响,具有情景依赖性。     

Impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion

Although prior research has shown that some people prefer a risky to an ambiguous option, this study further proposes that people's regulatory focus (promotion vs. prevention) might influence their ambiguity aversion. Three experiments have tested whether people with promotion focus showed less ambiguity aversion than those with prevention focus: The first experiment revealed that, compared with chronically promotion‐focused individuals, prevention‐focused subjects preferred a risky to an ambiguous option. In the second experiment, priming of the subjects' goal orientations led to similar results. Experiment 3 demonstrated that participants showed less ambiguity aversion for the expected performance of an investment product representative of promotion (e.g., a stock fund) rather than one representative of prevention (e.g., a bond fund). In other words, people showed less preference for a bond fund when the probability distribution of its expected performance was unknown than when it was known, whereas they showed less preference difference between known and unknown probability distributions for the expected performance of a stock fund. This study has integrated research pertaining to regulatory focus and ambiguity aversion, and the results have confirmed that the impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion is robust across different methods and decision tasks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effects of factors that might underlie the differential perception of acquaintance and stranger rape

There is evidence to suggest that in an acquaintance rape the victim is perceived less favorably and there is more leniency toward the perpetrator than in a stranger rape. The purpose of the present study was to assess the perceptual effects of factors that might underlie this differential perception. Victim-perpetrator attraction and ambiguity in victim's desire for intercourse were varied since both are often perceived to occur at a much higher frequency in acquaintance rape than stranger rape. The design of the study was a 3 (victim-perpetrator attraction — minimal, moderate, maximal) × 2 (ambiguity in desire for intercourse — ambiguous, relatively unambiguous) × 2 (gender of subject — male, female) factorial. The results indicated that ambiguity had a significant effect on perceptions. More specifically, perception tended to be less favorable toward the victim and more lenient toward the defendant when there was ambiguity in the victim's desire for intercourse. Additionally, when compared to females, males' perception tended to be less favorable toward the victim and more lenient toward the perpetrator. There were no other significant main effects or interactions. The implications of these findings for the differential perception of acquaintance and stranger rape are discussed.     

The role of competition and knowledge in the Ellsberg task

Ambiguity avoidance denotes people's preference for gambling situations with known over unknown, or ambiguous, probability distributions. In four experiments we provide evidence for the interaction between competitiveness and knowledge in Ellsberg's task, in which people have a choice between a risky box (distribution of balls known) and an ambiguous box (distribution of balls not known). If the situation is perceived as competitive (the experimenter or an opponent is responsible for composing the boxes) people avoid ambiguity by betting on the box with the known probability distribution. If the task is perceived as cooperative (a partner or friend is composing the boxes) people are indifferent toward ambiguity or even ambiguity seeking. In addition, we find that people expect their winning odds to be less than even in the ambiguous box. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊决策的认知神经机制

模糊决策是特殊、复杂的风险决策, 还是一种独立的决策类型, 是当前认知神经科学争论的热点问题。一系列的fMRI研究分别得出了不同结论, 但大多数证据支持模糊决策和风险决策之间存在分离, 模糊决策有其独特的决策机制; 模糊决策的认知神经机制也是一个亟待解决的问题。因此本研究拟应用事件相关电位技术、生物反馈技术和基因技术, 采用IGT和GDT任务范式, 通过网络成瘾人群和正常人群的对比研究, 去探索模糊决策和风险决策之间的分离; 应用事件相关电位技术和磁共振技术, 采用IGT范式和选瓶任务范式, 研究模糊决策的认知神经机制; 并从临床角度进一步验证上述结果。该项目的开展, 有助于拓广模糊决策的研究领域和视野, 对理解人类在模糊情境下的决策机制以及模糊决策和风险决策之间的关系, 具有重要的理论意义; 对临床上成瘾人群、脑损伤患者的认知诊断和治疗以及现实中企业和个人的决策, 具有重要的参考价值。     

Task formats and ambiguity aversion

This paper proposes that task format (choosing or rejecting) moderates the effect of ambiguity aversion. Specifically, an ambiguous option is more attractive in a choosing task than in a rejecting task compared with a risky option. The author performed three experiments to test the propositions. In the first experiment, participants showed less ambiguity aversion when they had to choose a preferred option (risky or ambiguous) compared with when they had to reject an option they preferred less. In the second experiment with a monetary incentive, participants had to form a cash‐equivalent estimate for both a risky gamble and an ambiguous gamble in a traditional Ellsberg scenario. The ambiguous option emerged as more attractive than the risky option in the choosing task compared with the rejecting task. The third experiment showed that the participants' decision rationale mediated the effect of the task format on choice. These three experiments support the proposition that task formats moderate the effect of ambiguity aversion. On the basis of the findings, the author provides suggestions for practice and further research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Settling Liability Disputes: The Effects of Asymmetric Levels of Ambiguity on Negotiations

Past research has found that ambiguity surrounding the alternative to a negotiated settlement can increase the likelihood of a negotiated settlement (Hogarth, 1989; Fobian & Christensen-Szalanski, 1993). This study extends the previous research by showing that the extent to which settlement propensity will be affected depends on which of the parties perceives greater ambiguity. In simulated liability settlement negotiations, manipulating whether ambiguity was greater for the defendant or the plaintiff resulted in up to a 69% difference in the number of settlements. The research also suggests that the party with less ambiguity will generally have the advantage in a negotiation situation.     

Role Satisfaction Mediates the Relation between Role Ambiguity and Social Loafing among Elite Women Handball Players

The aims of the study were to develop a questionnaire on self-reported social loafing (SRSLQ), and then to examine its relations with role ambiguity and role satisfaction in a sample of 110 women handball players competing at the elite level in Norway. Structural equation modeling analyses indicated that the SRSLQ was a psychometrically sound measure. In line with the expectations, role satisfaction fully mediated the positive relation between role ambiguity and self-reported social loafing: The more players experienced role ambiguity, the less satisfied they were with their role in the team, and the more social loafing they reported.     

Ambiguity Attitudes over Time

Previous research demonstrates that individuals exhibit a stronger level of ambiguity aversion for high probabilities than for low probabilities. Given that risky and ambiguous prospects are often unresolved until a future date (e.g., investment decisions, new product launches, and medical interventions), this study examines the impact of time on ambiguity preferences at different probability levels. Our experimental results indicate that although ambiguity preferences for low‐probability events remain constant, a robust effect of time occurs for high‐probability events. More specifically, temporal distance mitigates ambiguity aversion. This effect is consistent for different elicitation methods (preference rating and probability–ambiguity trade‐off tasks). We propose a dual‐process model (affective versus cognitive processing styles) to explain our results. Affective processing for high‐probability lotteries resolved in the current period increases ambiguity aversion, while cognitive processing leads to less ambiguity‐averse choices for future lotteries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust Tolerance for Ambiguity

We argue first that "ambiguous prospects" should be defined in a way that is compatible with dictionary definitions and other technical uses of ambiguity. We then define an ambiguous prospect as a disjunction of risky prospects. Then to harmonize some findings in the literature we test the hypothesis that people are ambiguity indifferent up to moderate amounts of ambiguity and are ambiguity averse only for large amounts of ambiguity. To test the hypothesis we found probability equivalents to risk for prospects of varying degrees of ambiguity. Up to an ambiguity range of .7 the equivalents were near that of a normatively equivalent risky prospect while the equivalents of highly ambiguous prospects differed. We interpret the data in terms of competing desires for minimum effort and maximum accuracy.     

句法歧义消解影响因素、认知机制及其神经基础

句法歧义消解主要是指人们在面临多种句法分析可能性的情况下,句法分析器抑制不正确的句法分析而选择正确句法分析的认知过程。研究表明,该过程受到工作记忆、认知控制能力、语言分布频率、语境、韵律等因素的影响。为有效说明人们是如何完成句法歧义消解的,研究者们建构了诸如花园路径模型、约束满意理论、弱交互作用句法分析理论等相关模型。另外,基于脑成像技术研究表明,左侧额下回、左侧颞叶后部、中部和前部在句法消歧任务中都有显著激活。未来研究当围绕着句法消歧中的语义效应、句法和词汇歧义消解机制的异同、句法消歧中抑制能力的效应等方面展开。     

Predictors of depression in caregivers of dementia patients: boundary ambiguity and mastery

This study examined the role of two perceptual variables in predicting the development of depressive symptoms in caregivers. The first, boundary ambiguity, refers to whether the dementia patient is perceived as psychologically in or out of the family system. The second, an orientation toward mastery, is related to how persons manage various stressful situations, including caring for a dementia patient. This study included 70 patients and their caregivers. Stepwise regression and path analytic techniques were used to compare the impact of variables related to the illness per se and of variables related to caregivers' perceptions of their situations. Results indicate that both perceptual variables, boundary ambiguity, and mastery, are significantly related to a caregivers' depression level whereas severity of the patient's dementia is not. In sum, the more a caregiver perceives a mate as psychologically absent, the less masterful and the more depressed she or he is.     

英语句法歧义消解过程中基于激发点的权变模型

采用自控速度的移动窗口技术,在3个实验中分别考察句法歧义消解的基本过程。阅读材料为 不含有词汇歧义的较为单纯的英语句法歧义句。结果为：实验1的研究结果表明在语料中不存 在歧义激发点的情况下,被试不会启动歧义的消解过程;实验2的研究结果表明当歧义激发点 与解歧区重合时,人们会选用再分析机制来处理解歧区语料;实验3的研究结果表明当歧义激 发点与歧义区重合时,人们会选用竞争机制来处理歧义区语料。本研究初步验证了基于激发点 的权变模型关于句法歧义消解过程的相关设想。     

Accessing lexical ambiguities during sentence comprehension: Effects of frequency of meaning and contextual bias

Two hypotheses concerning the nature of lexical access, the exhaustive access and the terminating ordered search hypotheses, were examined in two separate studies using a crossmodal lexical priming task. In this task, subjects listened to sentences that were biased toward either the primary interpretation (a meaning occurring 75% or more of the time) or a secondary interpretation (a meaning occurring less than 25% of the time) of a lexical ambiguity that occurred in each sentence. Simultaneously, subjects made lexical decisions about visually presented words. Decisions to words related to both the primary and secondary meanings of the ambiguity were facilitated when presented immediately following occurrence of the ambiguity in the sentence. This effect held under each of the two biasing context conditions. However, when they were presented 1.5 sec following occurrence of the ambiguity, only visual words related to the contextually relevant meaning of the ambiguity were facilitated. These results support the exhaustive access hypothesis. It is argued that lexical access is an autonomous subsystem of the sentence comprehension routine in which all meanings of a word are momentarily accessed, regardless of the factors of contextual bias or bias associated with frequency of use.     

Ambiguity,generality, and indeterminacy: Tests and definitions

The problem addressed is that of finding a sound characterization of ambiguity. Two kinds of characterizations are distinguished: tests and definitions. Various definitions of ambiguity are critically examined and contrasted with definitions of generality and indeterminacy, concepts with which ambiguity is sometimes confused. One definition of ambiguity is defended as being more theoretically adequate than others which have been suggested by both philosophers and linguists. It is also shown how this definition of ambiguity obviates a problem thought to be posed by ambiguity for truth theoretical semantics. In addition, the best known test for ambiguity, namely the test by contradiction, is set out, its limitations discussed, and its connection with ambiguity's definition explained. The test is contrasted with a test for vagueness first proposed by Peirce and a test for generality propounded by Margalit.The earliest version of this paper was presented to The Logical Grammar Study Group at The University of Alberta, which included, at that time, Matthew Dryer, Bernard Linsky, Jeff Pelletier, and Len Schubert, Among others. Section 2 of the paper was presented 25 May, 1987 at the annual meeting of the Canadian Philosophical Association (Hamilton, Ontario); and Section 1 was presented 22 January, 1900 to the Department of Philosophy at the University of Ottawa. I am grateful to these audiences and others who have provided helpful criticism and comments.