An Optimized Design of Choice Experiments: A New Approach for Studying Decision Behavior in Choice Task Experiments

In this paper, we present a new approach for the optimal experimental design problem of generating diagnostic choice tasks, where the respondent's decision strategy can be unambiguously deduced from the observed choice. In this new approach, we applied a genetic algorithm that creates a one‐to‐one correspondence between a set of predefined decision strategies and the alternatives of the choice task; it also manipulates the characteristics of the choice tasks. In addition, this new approach takes into account the measurement errors that can occur when the preferences of the decision makers are being measured. The proposed genetic algorithm is capable of generating diagnostic choice tasks even when the search space of possible choice tasks is very large. As proof‐of‐concept, we used this novel approach to generate respondent‐specific choice tasks with either low or high context‐based complexity that we operationalize by the similarity of alternatives and the conflict between alternatives. We find in an experiment that an increase in the similarity of the alternatives and an increase in the number of conflicts within the choice task lead to an increased use of non‐compensatory strategies and a decreased use of compensatory decision strategies. In contrast, the size of the choice tasks, measured by the number of attributes and alternatives, only weakly influences the strategy selection. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maximization and Search for Alternatives in Decision Situations With and Without Loss of Options

Maximizing tendency has been associated with greater accumulation of choice alternatives prior to selection of a preference. It is not known whether this search behavior extends to situations in which accumulation of new choice alternatives comes with the potential loss of existing ones. In Study 1, we replicate the original finding of greater accumulation of choice alternatives, using a computer‐based laboratory task. We then provide evidence, in Studies 2 and 3, that when potential loss of existing options is incorporated into the task, maximization is associated with less rather than more search for additional options. Maximization components of decision difficulty and alternative search, but not high standards or satisficing, explain this behavior. Other task measures are also collected, but few maximization‐related differences are observed. The findings support an interpretation of maximizers as decision makers who are as concerned with the potential loss of existing options as with the loss of undiscovered future ones. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploration and exploitation during sequential search

When we learn how to throw darts we adjust how we throw based on where the darts stick. Much of skill learning is computationally similar in that we learn using feedback obtained after the completion of individual actions. We can formalize such tasks as a search problem; among the set of all possible actions, find the action that leads to the highest reward. In such cases our actions have two objectives: we want to best utilize what we already know (exploitation), but we also want to learn to be more successful in the future (exploration). Here we tested how participants learn movement trajectories where feedback is provided as a monetary reward that depends on the chosen trajectory. We mathematically derived the optimal search policy for our experiment using decision theory. The search behavior of participants is well predicted by an ideal searcher model that optimally combines exploration and exploitation.     

On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies

Analysis of binary choice behavior in iterated tasks with immediate feedback reveals robust deviations from maximization that can be described as indications of 3 effects: (a) a payoff variability effect, in which high payoff variability seems to move choice behavior toward random choice; (b) underweighting of rare events, in which alternatives that yield the best payoffs most of the time are attractive even when they are associated with a lower expected return; and (c) loss aversion, in which alternatives that minimize the probability of losses can be more attractive than those that maximize expected payoffs. The results are closer to probability matching than to maximization. Best approximation is provided with a model of reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies (RELACS). This model captures the 3 deviations, the learning curves, and the effect of information on uncertainty avoidance. It outperforms other models in fitting the data and in predicting behavior in other experiments.     

Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Naïve Groups Can Solve the Hidden‐Profile Problem

Research involving hidden‐profile tasks suggests that groups typically fail to detect hidden profiles. In previous studies, group members always considered the alternatives in the choice tasks prior to joining the group and, thus, entered discussions with preformed preferences (predecided groups). We set up a new condition, in which group members received their information regarding the choice alternatives at the beginning of their group session (naïve groups). When information was provided in the form of common rather than in the form of unique cues, naïve groups detected the hidden profile throughout. The results indicate that naïve groups are able to detect hidden profiles.     

Search strategies in decision making: the success of “success”

Examination of search strategies has tended to focus on choices determined by decision makers' personal preferences among relevant cues, and not on learning cue‐criterion relationships. We present an empirical and rational analysis of cue search for environments with objective criteria. In such environments, cues can be evaluated on the basis of three properties: validity (the probability that a cue identifies the correct choice if cue values differ between alternatives); discrimination rate (the proportion of occasions on which a cue has differing values); and success (the expected proportion of correct choices when only that cue can be used). Our experiments show that though there is a high degree of individual variability, success is a key determinant of search. Furthermore, a rational analysis demonstrates why success‐directed search is the most adaptive strategy in many circumstances. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors influencing the use of internal summary evaluations versus external information in choice

Decision makers cope with more demanding tasks by shifting their cognitive strategies, balancing effort expenditure against the desire to produce an accurate response. In choice tasks, one method for reducing effort while simultaneously maintaining accuracy is to shift from a reliance on information obtained from the external environment to that retrieved from memory, particularly summary evaluations (i.e. relatively stable evaluative reactions to the overall attractiveness of individual alternatives) acquired from previous decision-making experience. We examined four factors that should all encourage decision makers to rely to some extent on internal summary evaluations rather than external information search: (1) increased external search costs, (2) greater time pressure, (3) increased incentives to make an accurate choice, and (4) increased levels of prior experience with the choice context. Sixty experimental subjects chose their preferred alternative from a set of women's magazines. Decision processes were inferred from verbal protocols, computer-generated search records, and decision times. Only increased external search costs led to a greater reliance on summary evaluations. Although increased time pressure, increased incentives, and increased experience with the context did lead to changes in search and evaluation processes, contrary to initial expectations decision makers did not shift to a greater reliance on summary evaluations. These results suggest that while decision makers do sometimes use summary evaluations as a substitute for external search, this is only one of several mechanisms available for effort reduction. Understanding when and where decision makers rely upon summary evaluations probably requires a broader conceptualization of knowledge structures, particularly a consideration of the knowledge that decision makers possess about different choice strategies and their effectiveness.     

Sequential search by groups with rank-dependent payoffs: An experimental study

In many sequential search situations, decisions are reached by groups. We examine behavior in such situations experimentally using an extension of the “secretary problem”. In our setup, group members (players) with non-aligned preferences inspect alternatives or “applicants” one at a time with no backward solicitation. A minimal information structure is assumed where players are only informed of the relative ranks of the alternatives as they inspect them sequentially. We present the equilibrium solution, and then use it as a benchmark for our analysis. We report the results from a controlled experiment showing that subjects over-searched relative to equilibrium. Decisions were affected by theoretically irrelevant observations including the relative rank of the previous alternative and the other player’s relative rank of the current alternative. For managers engaged in committee sequential search tasks, our findings highlight the importance of being aware to reach compromises early on, among other implications.     

Optimism and Self-Mastery Predict More Rapid Disengagement from Unsolvable Tasks in the Presence of Alternatives

Do favorable beliefs about the self, the future, and one's degree of control over events compromise one's ability to recognize what one cannot accomplish? Previous studies indicating that people with favorable self-beliefs spend more time on unsolvable tasks typically examined persistence with respect to a single unsolvable task or set of tasks. To test whether such seemingly maladaptive persistence would occur in the presence of alternative tasks, we varied whether an initial set of seven unsolvable anagrams was followed by 14 solvable anagrams and examined problem-solving efforts among college students (N = 96) given a 20-min time limit. In the absence of alternatives, most participants worked on the unsolvable trials until the end of the time limit; however, in the presence of alternatives, participants high in optimism or self-mastery beliefs who were not allowed to return to previous trials disengaged from the unsolvable anagrams nearly 4 min sooner than participants low in such beliefs. Additionally, optimists tended to outperform participants low in optimism on the subsequent solvable trials when these trials were said to test an aspect of verbal intelligence different from the initial set. These results suggest that people high in optimism and self-mastery are able to disengage from unsolvable tasks in order to allocate effort to solvable tasks. Implications for the study of nonproductive persistence, the adaptiveness of positive beliefs, and the modification of coping efforts are discussed.

     

The Effects of the Selective Consideration of Alternatives on Consumer Choice and Attitude–Decision Consistency

There are many instances of consumer decision making in which more consideration is given to 1 brand than to others in the choice set. This research explored how selective consideration of a brand affects attitudes toward the brand, relative standing of the focal brand within the choice category, and decision making. Experiment 1 demonstrated that when participants were prompted to consider a randomly determined focal alternative, that alternative was more likely to be chosen than nonfocal alternatives. Moreover, willingness to pay for an alternative was higher if it was the focus of consideration. Attitudinal data suggest that the selective consideration effect occurred because attitudes toward the focal alternative became more positive compared to those toward other alternatives in the choice set. Experiment 2 elucidated this attitudinal effect by demonstrating that selective consideration could cause the extremity of consumers’ attitudes toward a focal brand to become more positive. Experiment 3 explored the potential of the selective consideration of a focal alternative to influence the consistency between consumers’ attitudes and decisions and established that the initial attitude toward a focal alternative moderated the selective consideration effect.     

Moving Onwards: An Action Continuation Strategy in Finding the Way

In four studies, we examined people's strategies when deciding between multiple routes of equivalent length in way‐finding tasks. The results reveal the important role of continuing behavior when faced with a choice from multiple viable routes. After affirming the existence of asymmetric preferences for alternatives (Studies 1 and 2), we observed that variations of simple known‐environment mazes supported action continuation as prevailing process over alternative strategies such as preference for long initial path segments, paths with a least deviating angle, and a modified hill climbing strategy (Study 3). Moreover, asymmetric preferences disappeared with the absence of initial behavior to inform subsequent decision making (Study 4). Results are discussed within the context of decision making, navigation strategies, and everyday life path finding. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of attention to threat across tasks in behaviorally inhibited children at risk for anxiety

Although attention bias towards threat has been causally implicated in the development and maintenance of fear and anxiety, the expected associations do not appear consistently. Reliance on a single task to capture attention bias, in this case overwhelmingly the dot‐probe task, may contribute to this inconsistency. Comparing across attentional bias measures could help capture patterns of behavior that have implications for anxiety. This study examines the patterns of attentional bias across two related measures in a sample of children at temperamental risk for anxiety. Children (Mean_age = 10.19 ± 0.96) characterized as behaviorally inhibited (N = 50) or non‐inhibited (N = 64) via parent‐report completed the dot‐probe and affective Posner tasks to measure attentional bias to threat. Parent‐report diagnostic interviews assessed children's social anxiety. Behavioral inhibition was not associated with performance in the dot‐probe task, but was associated with increased attentional bias to threat in the affective Posner task. Cross‐task convergence was dependent on temperament, such that attention bias across the two tasks was only related in behaviorally inhibited children. Finally, children who were consistently biased across tasks (showing high or low attentional bias scores in both tasks, rather than high in one but low in the other) had higher levels of anxiety. Convergence across attention bias measures may be dependent on individuals' predispositions (e.g. temperament). Moreover, convergence of attention bias across measures may be a stronger marker of information processing patterns that shape socioemotional outcomes than performance in a single task.     

Eye movements and time-based selection: Where do the eyes go in preview search?

In visual search tasks, presenting one set of distractors (previewing them) before a second set which contains the target, improves search efficiency compared to when all items appear simultaneously. It has been proposed that this preview benefit reflects an attentional bias against old information and toward new information. Here we tested directly whether there was such a bias by measuring eye movement behavior. The main findings were that fixations were biased against, and overall dwell times were shorter on, old stimuli during search in the preview condition. In addition, the initial onset of search was delayed in the preview condition and saccades made during the preview period did not disrupt the ability to prioritize new items. The data demonstrate directly that preview search results in an attentional bias toward new items and against old items.     

Recency Tendency: Responses to Forced‐Choice Questions

The present study was conducted to investigate whether forced‐choice questions would lead to any particular tendency in young children's responses. Two experiments were conducted in which 3‐ to 5‐year‐olds children were shown a short animation and then were asked a set of two‐option, forced‐choice questions. Consistent findings were obtained: (i) Forced‐choice questions influenced children's responses; (ii) Children displayed a consistent ‘recency tendency.’ That is, they tended to choose the second option in forced‐choice questions; (iii) This tendency grew weaker as children aged. The findings suggest that forced‐choice questions carry some suggestibility load and can bias children's responses. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The nanoeconomics of concurrent choice behavior

We introduce to behavior analysis a way of analyzing choice behavior that exploits recent developments in nanoeconomics, financial economics, and econometrics. A response return, modeled on an economic return, is the log differenced count of responses allocated to each of two alternatives during a short time window, compared with that in the immediately preceding window. The response return is a new dependent variable which offers a novel and useful way of looking at operant behavior, especially at the molecular level of analysis. The response–return series is a near‐instantaneous measure of an organism's dynamic preferences for each of two alternatives. Analyzing such a series requires time‐analytic techniques, including Auto‐Regressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) models. We illustrate these techniques by analyzing choices between combinations of arithmetic and exponential variable‐interval schedules with pigeon subjects. All response–return series were well‐fitted by one of three ARCH‐family models. The fitted models were differentially sensitive to transition versus steady‐state data samples. The particular insights that the ARCH analyses offer are improved understanding of the effects of the instantaneous effects of reinforcers and their absence, of how the distribution of reinforcers in time affects choice, and of the differences between choice in transition and at steady state.     

Observed Variability and Values Matter: Toward a Better Understanding of Information Search and Decisions from Experience

The search for different options before making a consequential choice is a central aspect of many important decisions, such as mate selection or purchasing a house. Despite its importance, surprisingly little is known about how search and choice are affected by the observed and objective properties of the decision problem. Here, we analyze the effects of two key properties in a binary choice task: the options' observed and objective values, and the variability of payoffs. First, in a large public data set of a binary choice task, we investigate how the observed value and variability relate to decision‐makers' efforts and preferences during search. Furthermore, we test how these properties influence the chance of correctly identifying the objectively maximizing option, and how they affect choice. Second, we designed a novel experiment to systematically analyze the role of the objective difference between the options. We find that a larger objective difference between options increases the chance for correctly identifying the maximizing option, but it does not affect behavior during search and choice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reinforcement uncertainty enhances preference for choice in humans

Under concurrent‐chains schedules of reinforcement, participants often prefer situations that allow selection among alternatives (free choice) to situations that do not (forced choice). The present experiment examined the effects of reinforcement probability on choice preferences. Preferences for free versus forced choice were measured under a condition in which participants' choices were always reinforced (reinforcement probability of 1.0) and a condition in which outcomes were uncertain (reinforcement probability of 0.5). Forty‐four college students participated and preferences were examined under a concurrent‐chains schedule of reinforcement. Participants preferred free choice under uncertain reinforcement, but a bias toward free choice was not observed when reinforcement was certain. These results align with previous findings of preference for free choice under conditions of uncertainty, but suggest that preference may be dependent upon probabilistic reinforcement contingencies in the terminal links of the concurrent‐chains arrangement. Thus, reinforcement probability is an important variable to consider when conducting similar studies on the value of choice.     

目标概念的辨析及其对决策的影响

目标对决策的影响过程包含了明晰目标的决策过程和在目标的动机作用下完成后续决策任务的过程。目标是个体期望实现的多个未来结果相互之间竞争动机作用的结果。依据对未来结果的渴望性和可行性等特征的认知, 个体抉择出某个未来结果作为自己的目标, 使其具有了动机作用。在明晰目标的过程中, 解释水平、自我控制的人格特质和成功经验都会产生重要影响。在明确了目标以后, 目标通过改变个体对有利于目标实现的决策备择方案的态度和选择性注意来影响个体的决策。未来研究可以从目标的意识程度对决策负面结果的影响, 对决策的心理过程进行直接测量等角度来探讨目标对决策的影响。     

‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.