风险投资中的短视效应及理论解释

“投资者难以长远地将多重投资看作整体,而更倾向于分割成单一决策进而表现出每次决策风险规避的现象”被称为风险投资中的短视效应.短视/远视风险投资常通过单一决策/重复决策范式予以研究.大多数的研究发现,在单一决策条件下,投资者接受投资的人数比例或者投资金额低于重复决策条件.短视效应的调节机制有反馈频率、投资灵活性、选择组块、风险状况等.研究者分别提出短视损失厌恶（myopic loss aversion,简称MLA）理论和短视预期理论（myopic prospect theory,MPT）对短视现象进行解释;但这些理论受到基于齐当别理论（equate-to-differentiate theory）研究的挑战.文章在总结短视效应已有相关研究的基础上指出今后有必要深入探索的方向.     

The Impact of Culture on Loss Aversion

Based on the literature on the relationship between culture, emotion, and loss aversion, we derive that culture can influence the degree of loss aversion. To test our hypotheses, we conduct a standardized survey in 53 countries worldwide that includes the questions from the Hofstede survey on cultural dimensions as well as lottery questions on loss aversion. The results show that individualism, power distance, and masculinity increase loss aversion as predicted, whereas the impact of uncertainty avoidance is less significant. Moreover, we also find a relation between the distribution of major religions in a country and loss aversion. In comparison, the connection of loss aversion to macroeconomic variables seems to be much smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

民众收入不公平感的机制与对策——基于参照依赖和损失规避双视角

近年来,贫富差距的不断加大已引起民众较为强烈的收入不公平感,而导致收入不公平感产生的一个主要原因是人们对自己收入所得不如他人的相对比较。本项目基于预期理论价值函数的参照依赖和损失规避双视角,对当前民众收入不公平感的形成机制与管理对策进行系列实证研究;采用心理测量、实验室实验和干预研究相结合的方法,并借助神经电生理的ERP技术和心理生理学的多导生理记录仪(SCR),以检验民众收入不公平感的自我-他人参照、单参照点-多参照点比较的整合性参照依赖框架;探索损失规避对多得不均等和少得不均等的非对称不公平感的根源性作用和神经生理机制;选取社区居民,操纵参照对象、参照点和得失框架,进行多轮次和多变量的干预研究,以探索减少民众收入不公平感的应对策略,并据此提出切实有效的管理对策。     

Loss aversion in the eye and in the heart: The autonomic nervous system's responses to losses

The common view in psychology and neuroscience is that losses loom larger than gains, leading to a negativity bias in behavioral responses and Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) activation. However, evidence has accumulated that in decisions under risk and uncertainty individuals often impart similar weights to negative and positive outcomes. We examine the role of the ANS in decisions under uncertainty, and its consistency with the behavioral responses. In three studies, we show that losses lead to heightened autonomic responses, compared to equivalent gains (as indicated by pupil dilation and increased heart rate) even in situations where the average decision maker exhibits no loss aversion. Moreover, in the studied tasks autonomic responses were not associated with risk taking propensities. These results are interpreted by the hypothesis that losses signal the subjective importance of global outcome patterns. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of prior acquisition of food aversion on the poisoned‐partner effect

It has been suggested that poisoned conspecifics function as aversive unconditioned stimuli for rats. The present study examined whether the prior acquisition of food aversion could enhance this effect. In phase 1, subjects were given pairings of cocoa‐flavored pellets and a toxin. In phase 2, they were given the cocoa‐flavored pellets and later presented with a poisoned or nonpoisoned conspecific. Subsequent testing involved a choice between the cocoa‐flavored pellets and regular pellets. Prior exposure to a poisoned conspecific prevented extinction of the conditioned aversion. In contrast, exposure to a nonpoisoned conspecific allowed extinction of the conditioned aversion. These findings suggest that a rat's reaction to a stressed conspecific is affected by their prior experience of aversive events.     

The Prospects for Prospect Theory: An Empirical Evaluation of International Relations Applications of Framing and Loss Aversion

International relations theorists have tried to adapt prospect theory to make it relevant to the study of real-world decision-making and testable beyond the constraints of the laboratory. Three experiments with undergraduate samples were conducted in an effort to clarify the advantages and limitations of prospect theory as adapted to explain political behavior. The first experiment tested hypotheses regarding the impact of prospect framing on group polarization, but these were only weakly supported. The second and third experiments examined alternative adaptations of the concept of framing; the results suggest that the political science expansion of the concept of framing may, under certain conditions, produce clear and robust preference reversals.     

个体权力高低对其损失规避的影响

摘 要 以中国大学生为被试,采用问卷的方式,探讨权力对损失规避倾向的影响。实验一发现,与低权力被试相比,高权力被试具有较少的损失规避。实验二进一步考察权力影响损失规避的原因机制,结果发现,权力对收益的价值估计没有影响,但降低了个体对损失的价值估计,从而导致损失规避的减少。结果表明,权力除了激活个体对收益的趋近,还可能抑制个体对损失的感知,权力也是影响决策的因素之一。 关键词 权力 损失规避 估计价值     

基于预期理论的风险决策的神经机制

预期理论基于对期望效用理论的批判与发展,提出了价值函数与权重函数,对以往风险决策研究中所发现的现象进行了很好的预测与解释。预期理论的核心概念包括参照依赖、损失规避与权重函数。基于预期理论的一些决策偏差包括框架效应、禀赋效应和默认偏差也部分揭示了与人们风险决策有关的脑区。近年来,通过采用功能性核磁共振等脑成像手段对预期理论的一些核心成分进行的研究表明,涉及到人们风险决策的脑区主要有前额叶、纹状体、脑岛与杏仁核。未来的研究可以从预期理论的产生根源、个体发展以及遗传基因等角度进行进一步的探讨。     

The effect of swimming experience on acquisition and retention of swimming-based taste aversion learning in rats

Swimming endows rats with an aversion to a taste solution consumed before swimming. The present study explored whether the experience of swimming before or after the taste-swimming trials interferes with swimming-based taste aversion learning. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a single preexposure to 20 min of swimming was as effective as four or eight preexposures in causing the interference effect. Experiment 2 found that a single 5-min preexposure was enough to cause the interference effect. Experiment 3 showed that preexposure to swimming interfered with but did not completely thwart the acquisition of swimming-based taste aversion learning. Experiment 4 failed to demonstrate a reliable retroactive interference effect by swimming postexposures. With a modified procedure, however, Experiment 5 successfully demonstrated a reliable effect by four postexposures. The associative and habituation accounts of these results are discussed.     

禀赋效应的心理机制及其影响因素

禀赋效应是指个体在拥有某物品时对该物品的估价高于没有拥有该物品时的估价的现象。这一现象在行为经济学中普遍存在。禀赋效应的研究范式包括经典研究范式与物物交换范式。禀赋效应的心理机制主要包括损失规避与查询理论。禀赋效应的影响因素主要包括认知角度、动机、情绪、交易物品的特征、研究设计的选择等。未来的研究需要从禀赋效应的适用条件、产生根源、研究范式的改进等方面进一步探讨。     

Mementos and the endowment effect

This research provides evidence for a new moderator of the endowment effect: having a memento of the endowed object. Three studies adapting classic endowment effect paradigms and using a variety of endowment objects and mementos demonstrate that having a memento of an endowment increases willingness to trade the endowment and decreases selling prices for the endowment. We provide evidence that mementos attenuate the endowment effect regardless of whether the memento is a separate small gain when facing the loss of the endowment or a small part of the original endowment that is kept. Examining mementos in context of the endowment effect not only provides insight into the psychology underlying the reluctance to part with one's endowment but also other consumer disposition behaviors.     

Power Politics and the Balance of Risk: Hypotheses on Great Power Intervention in the Periphery

Great powers frequently initiate risky diplomatic and military interventions in the periphery—regions that do not directly threaten the security of a great power's homeland. Such risky interventions are driven by leaders' aversion to losses in their state's relative power, international status, or prestige. These leaders often persist in such courses of action even when they incur mounting political, economic, and military costs. More surprisingly, they undertake risky strategies toward other great powers in an effort to continue these failing interventions. Hypotheses concerning such interventions are derived from the prospect theory and defensive realist literatures.     

The influence of involvement on the endowment effect: The moveable value function

The endowment effect is based on the loss aversion built into Prospect Theory's asymmetric value function. This paper posits that the level of consumer involvement with a decision is a moderator of the endowment effect. It is proposed that high involvement increases the slope differential between the loss and gain regions of the value function, enhancing loss aversion. The research further posits that higher involvement is accompanied by higher arousal and cognitive processing which produces stronger negativity in thoughts. The argument for these effects is discussed in the context of evolutionary theory. We conclude that consumers are more loss averse in high versus low involvement conditions.     

Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion,chasing, and regret in decisions from experience

The current paper explores choice among alternatives that can be classified into distinct classes. All the members of a particular class were ‘replicated alternatives’: they promised the same payoff distribution. Information to decision makers was limited to feedback concerning the realized (obtained and foregone) payoffs. Experiment 1 demonstrates that increasing the number of replicated alternatives creates confusion (which facilitates random choice) and changes the implications of the tendency to chase recent returns (i.e., select the alternative with the best recent outcomes). This effect, termed ‘confused chasing,’ facilitates risk seeking even when this behavior impairs expected earnings. Experiment 2 reveals that increasing the number of replicated alternatives can reduce (but does not eliminate) the tendency to underweight rare events. Experiment 3 shows that the relative importance of chasing and confusion is sensitive to the likelihood of realizing lower payoffs than the forgone payoffs. The main results are summarized with a simple model assuming that payoff sensitivity decreases with experienced regret. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distractor effect on the latent inhibition of conditioned flavor aversion in rats

Using a conditioned flavor aversion procedure with rats as subjects, the effect of the addition of a distractor stimulus on the magnitude of the latent inhibition effect was examined. Experiment 1 showed that latent inhibition to vinegar was attenuated by the addition of sucrose during preexposure. On the other hand, sucrose added during conditioning to vinegar did not attenuate latent inhibition. It was also found that the degree of latent inhibition to the vinegar-sucrose compound solution was less when vinegar alone was preexposed (i.e., when sucrose was added only during conditioning) than when the compound solution was preexposed (i.e., when sucrose was added both during preexposure and during conditioning). Experiment 2 gave similar results but with sucrose assigned as the target flavor and vinegar as the distractor. These findings are in full agreement with the generalization decrement account of latent inhibition.     

源于“反常”终于“常理”的禀赋效应

如果忽略收入影响和交易成本, 愿意为一样物品支付的价格应等于愿意出售的价格。而塞勒教授却发现, 现实生活中有一些“反常”现象, 个体会对自己所拥有的物品赋予更高的价值, 造成“愿意支付价格”和“愿意出售价格”的不一致。塞勒利用预期理论中的损失厌恶对这些反常现象进行解释, 并将该现象称为禀赋效应(endowment effect)。此后, 众多研究者从不同角度对该效应进行了探索和论证。文章详细梳理了禀赋效应的多种解释机制, 包括损失厌恶、心理所有权理论、偏差的认知过程以及进化的观点等, 论证了禀赋效应符合“常理”的原因, 同时也探讨了禀赋效应在商业销售策略和政府拆迁政策等方面的应用前景。     

Calculation,culture, and the repeated operand effect

A basic phenomenon of cognitive arithmetic is that problems composed of a repeated operand, so-called "ties" (e.g. 6+6, 7 x 7), typically are solved more quickly and accurately than comparable non-tie problems (e.g. 6+5, 7 x 8). In Experiment 1, we present evidence that the tie effect is due to more efficient memory for ties than for non-ties, which participants reported solving more often using calculation strategies. The memory/strategy hypothesis accounts for differences in the tie effect as a function of culture (Asian Chinese vs. non-Asian Canadian university students), operation (addition, multiplication, subtraction, and division), and problem size (numerically small vs. large problems). Nonetheless, Blankenberger (Cognition 82 (2001) B15) eliminated the tie response time (RT) advantage by presenting problems in mixed formats (e.g. 4 x four), which suggests that the tie effect with homogenous formats (4 x 4 or four x four) is due to encoding. In Experiment 2, using simple multiplication problems, we replicated elimination of the tie effect with mixed formats, but also demonstrated an interference effect for mixed-format ties that slowed RTs and increased errors relative to non-tie problems. Additionally, practicing non-tie problems in both orders (e.g. 3 x 4 and 4 x 3) each time ties were tested once (cf. Cognition 82 (2001) B15) reduced the tie effect. The format-mismatch effect on ties, combined with a reduced tie advantage because of extra practice of non-ties, eliminated the tie effect. Rather than an encoding advantage, the results indicate that memory access for ties was better than for non-ties.     

安于现状偏差的心理机制、影响因素及应用启示

安于现状偏差是指个体在决策时,倾向于不作为、维持当前或者以前的决策的一种现象。安于现状偏差包括内源的安于现状偏差与外源的安于现状偏差。目前研究者对这一现象的解释主要有两种:损失规避与后悔理论。安于现状偏差的影响因素主要包括备择项的数目、决策者的情绪以及认知与动机特征等。安于现状偏差有利于认识日常决策行为,而且在销售、管理与公共政策等实践领域有着重要的研究价值。未来的研究则需要从安于现状偏差与其他决策现象之间的关系,安于现状偏差的产生根源及其应用研究的拓展等方面来进一步探讨。