Will They Do It Again? Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism

This article reviews the empirical research on the prediction of reoffending among sexual offenders. The major predictors of sexual-offense recidivism are factors related to sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, previous sex crimes) and, to a lesser extent, criminal lifestyle (e.g., antisocial personality disorder, total number of prior offenses). The factors that predict general recidivism among sex offenders are the same as the factors that predict general recidivism among nonsexual criminals (e.g., juvenile delinquency, prior violent offenses). Given that there are special predictors of sexual recidivism, evaluators should consider separately the risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.     

Pornography use and sexual aggression: the impact of frequency and type of pornography use on recidivism among sexual offenders

In this study, we examined the unique contribution of pornography consumption to the longitudinal prediction of criminal recidivism in a sample of 341 child molesters. We specifically tested the hypothesis, based on predictions informed by the confluence model of sexual aggression that pornography will be a risk factor for recidivism only for those individuals classified as relatively high risk for re-offending. Pornography use (frequency and type) was assessed through self-report and recidivism was measured using data from a national database from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Indices of recidivism, which were assessed up to 15 years after release, included an overall criminal recidivism index, as well as subcategories focusing on violent (including sexual) recidivism and sexual recidivism alone. Results for both frequency and type of pornography use were generally consistent with our predictions. Most importantly, after controlling for general and specific risk factors for sexual aggression, pornography added significantly to the prediction of recidivism. Statistical interactions indicated that frequency of pornography use was primarily a risk factor for higher-risk offenders, when compared with lower-risk offenders, and that content of pornography (i.e., pornography containing deviant content) was a risk factor for all groups. The importance of conceptualizing particular risk factors (e.g., pornography), within the context of other individual characteristics is discussed.     

An Exploration of Factors Reducing Recidivism Rates of Formerly Incarcerated Youth with Disabilities Participating in a Re-Entry Intervention

Juvenile offenders are costly to our society in terms of the monetary and social expenditures from the legal system, victims’ person costs, and incarceration. The re-entry and community reintegration outcomes for formerly incarcerated youth with a disabling condition are bleak compared to peers without disabilities. In this study, we examined the factors––both static and intervention-related––that reduce recidivism rates for project participants possessing a mental health and/or special education diagnosis and were served by a facility-to-community re-entry intervention. Our sample was comprised of a total of 320 youth formerly incarcerated who received project services between August of 1999 through June of 2004. Project services include a transition specialist whose role is service coordination to youth from the facility to the community. Kaplan–Meier survival functions were calculated for participants on the outcome measure of the rates of recidivism. Additionally, Cox regression modeling was used to identify factors for the prediction of time to recidivate. Our findings indicate that the intervention may contribute to reduced recidivism rates but that a set of static demographic and pre-incarceration risks contribute more to the prediction of recidivism than community adjustment factors (e.g., employment or enrollment). With these findings, the intervention seems promising yet it remains unclear about which programmatic features contribute to reduced recidivism rates. Implications for research and practice are shared.     

Die Validit?t dynamisch-ver?nderbarer Risikofaktoren bei der Vorhersage einschl?giger R��ckf?lle p?dosexueller Straft?ter

The present study examines the predictive validity of dynamic risk factors for the prediction of sexual recidivism in a sample of pedosexual offenders (N?=?135) released from the Austrian prison system between 2002 and 2005. Static-99 was used to rate static risk factors and in order to measure dynamic risk factors Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 were applied. In addition to the demonstration of results about the interrater reliability the results about the predictive and incremental validity of the dynamic risk assessment are presented. After a mean follow-up period of 5½ years Static-99, Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 showed excellent interrater reliability and good predictive validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism. Furthermore, Stable-2007 showed better predictive accuracy than its predecessor and added incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99.     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years post-release. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism post-release and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature.     

Predicting recidivism in adolescent sexual offenders

The prediction of risk of sexual recidivism in adult sex offenders has been grounded on research identifying reliable markers or risk factors, the so-called static and dynamic variables. For adolescents such reliable factors in the prediction of risk of sexual recidivism have so far not been unequivocally revealed. The aim of this systematic review was to screen the available research literature for such factors. The results indicated that regarding static or historical risk variables some can be found repeatedly to be linked to sexual recidivism in adolescents such as previous offending and multiple or stranger victims. Considering dynamic variables there is much less documented evidence in the research literature possibly as a result of lack of adequate psychometric tools. Overall, regarding risk of sexual recidivism there continues to be a great need for research.     

Zur rückfallprognostischen Bedeutung des Tatverhaltens bei Sexualdelinquenz

The study examined the possibility of predicting sexual recidivism within a period of 5 years in a sample of 612 male sex offenders by means of behavioural crime scene variables. A total of 20 variables were selected based on a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine combined predictive accuracy. Step-wise reverse logistic regression extracted 12 variables explaining 22% of total variance in sexual recidivism. The unweighted sum score of these variables showed considerable predictive power (AUC?=?0.76; r?=?0.34). Findings were robust not only for different subgroups of sexual offenders, but also when cross-validated on an independent sample. In addition, the unweighted sum score showed significant incremental validity above and beyond common risk measures [Static99, Sexual Violence Risk- (SVR-)20], both in the original and the cross-validation sample. Thus, the potential of crime scene analysis in predicting sexual recidivism has been clearly demonstrated. Future research should provide a more accurate access to psychologically meaningful interpretations of the risk immanent in crime scene actions by adapting risk scales to certain subgroups of perpetrators.     

An Evaluation of the Reliability and Validity of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) in South African Context

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ: Loza, 2005) is a self-report questionnaire designed to assist with the prediction of violent and nonviolent recidivism among correctional populations. Use of scale could help in the assessment of risk and the identification of factors that could be addressed by programming or other intervention to reduce recidivism risk. Evidence for use of the SAQ in South African settings is needed. The SAQ was administered at two separate occasions and a week apart to a total of 125 male offenders in South Africa to evaluate its psychometric properties. Scores from the SAQ were reliable with South African inmates.     

Sexually Violent Predators: Toward Reasonable Estimates of Recidivism Base Rates

The sexual recidivism rate of sex offenders is a controversial issue. Perhaps as controversial is the sexual recidivism rate of the select group of sex offenders who are examined pursuant to sexually violent predator (SVP) statutes. At present, reliable estimates of SVP recidivism are unavailable. We propose that reasonable estimates of SVP recidivism can be reached by considering three available pieces of data: (i) a likely recidivism rate of the general population of sex offenders; (ii) procedures typically followed by jurisdictions that civilly commit sex offenders; and (iii) classification accuracy of procedures. Although sexual recidivism rates vary across jurisdictions, the results of our analyses suggest sex offenders referred for examination pursuant to SVP statutes recidivate at substantially higher rates than typical sex offenders. Our results further suggest that sex offenders recommended for commitment as SVPs recidivate at even greater rates than SVP respondents who are not recommended for commitment. We discuss practice and policy implications of these findings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zur Gefährlichkeit ehemaliger Patienten des Maßregelvollzugs (§ 63 StGB)

Background

The prediction of dangerousness in mentally ill offenders – and here mainly the issue of safety – is still of primary interest for forensic experts and also the public. The effectiveness of treatment and therefore of the whole German forensic system is generally measured by recidivism rates of this clientele.

Methods

The Essen prospective Multi-Centre Prognosis Study began in 1997, and 23 forensic hospitals in Germany took part. Data of 321 subjects were collected with a follow-up of up to 10 years (mean 7.5 years). This article presents topical recidivism rates.

Results

Currently the general recidivism rate is 31.5% and for severe reoffences 10.3% which is relatively low in comparison to other recent studies.

Conclusions

The rate of general recidivism of forensic patients in Germany has been reduced in the last years while the rate of severe reoffence was constant. In order to reduce the number of reoffences further studies should analyze the forensic aftercare.     

Pro-criminal attitudes,intervention, and recidivism

We review the recent research literature on pro-criminal attitudes (PCAs) as a causal factor of recidivism with a focus on studies on the effectiveness of offender treatment programs targeting PCAs to prevent recidivism. The main conclusions that can be derived from the literature are: (1) the evidence supports the hypothesis that PCAs are related to reoffending; (2) most investigated offender treatment programs tend to reduce PCAs, although the general lack of adequate control group designs does not rule out alternative explanations for this reduction; and (3) there is no conclusive empirical evidence that intervention programs designed to reduce PCAs are effective in reducing recidivism. Empirical research in this area lacks the theoretical and methodological rigor to test causal models of the influence of treatment on reducing PCAs, and effects of PCAs on recidivism. Limitations of the empirical evidence are related to inadequate research designs and/or suboptimal data analysis strategies. Recommendations concerning optimized research designs and data analysis strategies that are likely to provide more conclusive evidence on the relation of PCAs, PCA treatment, and recidivism are given.     

The dark figure of sexual recidivism

Empirical studies of sexual offender recidivism have proliferated in recent decades. Virtually all of the studies define recidivism as a new legal charge or conviction for a sexual crime, and these studies tend to find recidivism rates of the order of 5–15% after 5 years and 10–25% after 10+ years. It is uncontroversial that such a definition of recidivism underestimates the true rate of sexual recidivism because most sexual crime is not reported to legal authorities, a principle known as the “dark figure of crime.” To estimate the magnitude of the dark figure of sexual recidivism, this paper uses a probabilistic simulation approach in conjunction with the following: (i) victim self‐report survey data about the rate of reporting sexual crime to legal authorities; (ii) offender self‐report data about the number of victims per offender; and (iii) different assumptions about the chances of being convicted of a new sexual offense given that it is reported. Under any configuration of assumptions, the dark figure is substantial, and as a consequence the disparity between recidivism defined as a new legal charge or conviction for a sex crime and recidivism defined as actually committing a new sexual crime is large. These findings call into question the utility of recidivism studies that rely exclusively on official crime statistics to define sexual recidivism, and highlight the need for additional, long‐term studies that use a variety of different measures to assess whether or not sexual recidivism has occurred.     

The relationship between psychometric test scores and reconviction in sexual offenders undertaking treatment

The evidence is mixed regarding the utility of psychometric test scores in prediction of the likelihood of sexual reoffending. This paper summarizes the research examining the relationship between psychometric measures and sexual recidivism, before detailing the findings of four large-scale studies in England and Wales, and comparing the findings of these studies to similar studies from other countries. The implications of the evidence to date are discussed, and recommendations are made for the future of psychometric testing as a way of determining risk of recidivism, dynamic risk factors, change over treatment, and the efficacy of rehabilitative programs.     

Treatment impact on recidivism of family only vs. generally violent partner violence perpetrators

Background/ObjectiveThe outcome of a treatment program for a large sample of male perpetrators on probation for intimate partner violence (IPV) was evaluated with particular reference to the differential impact on family only (FO) versus generally violent (GV) perpetrators.MethodOfficial rates of recidivism for three years post termination of treatment and probation were examined for 456 perpetrators after they were classified as FO and GV.ResultsBoth treatment completion and type of perpetrator were predictive of IPV recidivism and time to recidivism. However, analyses conducted separately for the two groups indicated that participation in the intervention predicted both recidivism and time to recidivism for the GV but not FO perpetrators who participated in treatment. Specifically, GV men were responsive to treatment whereas FO men were not. Results were somewhat different depending on who was included in the no treatment comparison group.ConclusionsImplications of these findings for one size fits all interventions in IPV are discussed with specific reference to the need to develop different interventions for GV and FO perpetrators.     

The utility of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) facet and item scores in predicting violent recidivism

There is relatively limited research on psychopathy in non-Caucasian ethnic groups and even less on the utility of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) that focuses on PCL-R facet and item scores in predicting violent recidivism. In this study, we assessed the utility of the PCL-R in prospectively predicting violent versus nonviolent recidivism during an 11-year follow-up window. A high-risk sample of 451 incarcerated Korean male offenders was assessed on the PCL-R at baseline. A total of 445 were reconvicted after release (353 violent and 92 nonviolent recidivists). Psychopathy facet scores were higher in violent compared to nonviolent recidivists. Facet 2 (affective) showed the strongest effect size (Cohen's d = 0.53; Percentage change in odds = 22.6%) in predicting violent recidivism. Analyses of the four items constituting the affective facet indicated that callous/lack of empathy (Percentage change in odds = 134.4%) and failure to accept responsibility (Percentage change in odds = 94.5%) were the strongest predictors of violent recidivism. Findings are to our knowledge the first to document the utility of the PCL-R in distinguishing violent from nonviolent recidivism and highlight the role of affective impairment (particularly lack of empathy) in violent recidivism.     

L’intelligence artificielle peut-elle aider à estimer le risque de récidive dans les comportements violents ?

In forensic psychiatry, magistrates raise the question of the existence of a risk of recidivism and dangerousness to psychiatric experts. Follow-up studies in forensic psychiatry showed that the psychiatric elements predictive of recidivism were mainly related to serious mental illnesses, toxic consumption, addictions, high levels of impulsivity, low insight, associated personality disorders, in particular antisocial personality disorders. There are also protective factors, in particular the observance of treatments. Given the complexity of psychiatric and criminological risk factors and protection, can artificial intelligence (AI) help psychiatrists and magistrates to improve the predictivity of recidivism?MethodsSystematic review of the literature on AI applications in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatry, conducted according to PRISMA criteria, using the: “Artificial Intelligence”, “Recidivism”, “Personality Disorder”, “Impulsive” Behavior”, “Alcohol abuse”, “Drug Abuse”, “Schizophrenia”, “Bipolar disorder” on the PubMed, Science Direct, Clinical Trial and Google Scholar databases.ResultsThe vast majority of studies come from legal or computer reviews and very few from medical databases. The studies evaluating the AI in Forensic Psychiatry most often used Machine Learning based on sociodemographic, sociological and criminological data, notably the age of the first offense and the number of previous convictions. To date, there are very few studies evaluating psychiatric parameters, focusing on psychopathic personality disorders.Discussion/conclusionThe applications of the AI in Forensic Psychiatry are still very premature. However, some psychiatric criteria should be more prominent in this field, especially those from Webster's HCR-20 and Hare PCL-R scales. The challenge will also be to find relevant behavioral, psychological and psychiatric keywords to include in AI.     

Predictors of Treatment Completion and Recidivism Among Intimate Partner Violence Offenders

This study examined the variables that predicted completion of an AMEND-Emerge-based program designed to treat men (n = 202) who had engaged in intimate partner violence and the rates of recidivism among those who completed versus those who failed to complete the program. Data were collected from an archival database that housed historical and demographic data on each participant; recidivism was determined by accessing publicly available court records, and was defined very broadly as any charges filed within a year after participating in the program. Overall recidivism for this sample was low (22.28%). Demographic factors demonstrated to correctly classify post-treatment recidivism included age, race, and relationship status. Whereas those who completed the program had lower recidivism than non-completers, the differences between those groups in age, race, and relationship status suggest that features of the program may not address the needs of younger African Americans who are not married.     

Neighborhood Risk Factors for Recidivism: For Whom do they Matter?

Justice‐involved people vary substantially in their risk of reoffending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual‐level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting reoffending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual’s susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of reoffending. Based on a sample of 2218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder—and these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts “matter” for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.     

The Roles of Childhood Maltreatment and Psychopathy in Sexual Recidivism of Treated Sex Offenders

Abstract

The Intensive Treatment Program for Sexual Offenders (ITPSO) at the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) provides cognitive-behavioral group treatment to federally incarcerated sex offenders. Follow-up data for 81 of these men were examined, looking at psychopathy and childhood maltreatment history as potential predictors of recidivism using Survival Analysis. Offenders who had been placed in foster care as a child were more likely to recidivate; however when PCL-R Factor 2 scores (a history of antisocial behavior) were entered, they predicted over and above foster care history. Childhood physical abuse predicted sexual recidivism; however, childhood sexual abuse and PCL-R scores did not predict sexual recidivism. PCL-R Factor 2 scores predicted violent recidivism.     

Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism

Detected or reported (“observed”) rates of sexual reoffending have long been recognized as underestimating the occurrence of actual sexual recidivism. Past attempts to bridge the gap between the two rates have been unsuccessful. Scurich and John try to reverse this course by presenting a simulation model to estimate the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sexual offenses based on three parameters; they also apply these data to calibrate the sexual recidivism rates from four sexual recidivism studies. The accuracy of the predicted actual sexual recidivism rates is wholly dependent upon the reliability of the inputs to the model. This analysis relies upon scientific studies and literature to delve into the precision of the parameters of Scurich and John in relation to the accuracy of their predicted actual sexual recidivism rates and the validity of the calibration process. The results reveal that some of the assumptions by Scurich and John about the parameters are supported empirically, while others are not. Overall, the simulation model parameters suffer from significant deficiencies that likely produce inaccurate predicted actual sexual recidivism rates. Moreover, the methodologies of the comparison studies used in the calibration process do not actually meet the requirements of the analytic strategy of Scurich and John, which effectively invalidates their findings. Until computational strategies are employed that account for linear and nonlinear effects of model parameters, closing the gap between observed and actual sexual recidivism rates will remain elusive.