判断与决策中的基线比例忽略

基线比例忽略是指在事件的判断中忽略相关事件统计学上的信息, 而只关注当前呈现的案例信息, 从而造成判断和决策偏差的一种现象。目前对这一现象的解释主要包括双加工理论和线性整合理论, 而影响基线比例忽略的因素有许多方面, 如信息特征、认知能力等等。在未来研究中, 应该深入分析双加工理论的作用机制以及依据模糊痕迹理论提出新的研究视角, 同时拓展在团体和公共领域中的应用性研究。     

Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making: Extensive Thinking Without Effort

We claim that intuition is capable of quickly processing multiple pieces of information without noticeable cognitive effort. We advocate a component view stating that intuitive processes in judgment and decision making are responsible for information integration and output formation (e.g., preference, choice), whereas analytic thinking mainly guides input formation such as search, generation, and change of information. We present empirical evidence corroborating this notion and show that integration of information and preference formation works without cognitive control and is unconstrained by the amount of encoded information and cognitive capacity. We discuss the implications of our findings for the bounded rationality perspective and the multiple strategy approach to judgment and decision making. Finally we outline a connectionist framework for integrating intuitive and analytic thought processes.     

Normative and Descriptive Models of Military Decisions to Deploy Precision Strike Capabilities

Precision strike capabilities represent a significant and highly controversial part of present day military operations. And yet, there is a surprising dearth of empirical research on military decision making in this domain. In this article, we therefore review different psychological perspectives on how these decisions can be made. Specifically, we compare the application of normative models of judgment and choice against the empirical research on human decision making, which suggests that people are more likely to employ heuristic strategies. We suggest that several features of decision tasks in the precision strike domain evoke the use of intuitive (heuristic) decision making whereas other features such as the sometimes unfamiliar (or novel) nature of the decision task requires analytic strategies to generate good solutions. Therefore, decisions about precision strike capabilities are best made with a mixture of intuitive and analytic thought, a mode of thinking known as quasirationality.     

The Development of Judgment and Decision Making During Childhood and Adolescence

Research on adult judgment and decision making has focused on deviations from normative models, demonstrating biases and reliance on heuristic shortcuts, thus presenting a very different picture than developmental theories that describe a unidirectional progression toward greater logic and efficiency. Recent research related to this apparent contradiction indicates that children develop competencies to reason effectively and make normative decisions, but also develop biased judgment strategies that are used inappropriately in some situations. We suggest potential explanations for the findings, highlighting the need to consider models that incorporate development in both experiential and analytic information processing systems.     

The Role of Numeracy and Intelligence in Health‐Risk Estimation and Medical Data Interpretation

Despite ample evidence that numeracy is an important influence on patient understanding and use of health‐related information, there is a dearth of studies examining the concept's relationship to other individual differences measures that may underlie complex judgments in the health domain. In this study, we compared the relative contributions of selected extant numeracy measures and general intelligence and other measures to varied judgment and decision‐making outcomes. Two hundred participants completed numeracy items, subscales of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales, the need for cognition scale, and four relevant outcome measures including risk estimation and medical data interpretation. A numeracy scale constructed using item response and confirmatory factor analyses was consistently the strongest predictor across all outcome measures and accounted for unique variance over and above general intelligence. The results support the concept of numeracy as an independent construct that merits consideration in patient communication. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of information relevance on decision making in complex environments

Previous research based on predictions of complexity theory has often varied information load and measured characteristics of group decision making. A reinterpretation of related data on success and failure effects suggests that the obtained load effects may be confounded by simultaneous variation of information load and information relevance. To begin studying the separate effects of the two variables, information load was held constant at the previously determined optimal level and information relevance was varied as a proportion of load. It was found that integrated decision making (a complex decision response) was modified by changes in information relevance; but that respondent decision making and information search (simple decision responses) did not change. The results were tentatively interpreted to suggest that complex decision making varies with relevance, while simple decision making varies with information load. It was suggested that complexity theory might be correspondingly modified.     

Judgment and decision making: Behavioral approaches

The area of judgment and decision making has given rise to the study of many interesting phenomena, including reasoning fallacies, which are also of interest to behavior analysts. Indeed, techniques and principles of behavior analysis may be applied to study these fallacies. This article reviews research from a behavioral perspective that suggests that humans are not the information-seekers we sometimes suppose ourselves to be. Nor do we utilize information effectively when it is presented. This is shown from the results of research utilizing matching to sample and other behavioral tools (monetary reward, feedback, instructional control) to study phenomena such as the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect, and probability matching. Research from a behavioral perspective can complement research from other perspectives in furthering our understanding of judgment and decision making.     

Concurrent explanations can enhance visual decision making

The verbalization of one's thoughts has been shown to impair judgment and decision making in some cases, particularly when targets are perceptual. This finding has been attributed to the fact that non-verbal processes are sometimes difficult to verbalize, which may cause a shift in processing that is maladaptive to the task. The study shows that concurrent written explanations can also enhance judgment and decision making in certain visual choice tasks. This finding suggests that the effect of verbalization on perceptual tasks is not dependent on whether the targets of the judgment are verbal or perceptual but rather on whether there is adequate vocabulary to execute the task and whether the task benefits from a more analytic approach.     

The Logic of Feeling

The contribution of the feelings‐as‐information hypothesis to our understanding of the role of affect in judgment and decision making is discussed. Basic principles and regularities in how affective feelings guide judgments and decisions are then identified. Based on these principles and regularities, it is argued that the role of feelings in judgment and decision making may be more adaptive than has been assumed in most academic circles. This adaptivity transpires (a) in the variety of goal‐relevant signals that feelings convey, (b) the flexibility with which feelings are interpreted, (c) the judgmental properties of feelings, and (d) the selectivity with which feelings are invoked. It is speculated that affective feelings may tap into a separate system of judgment and decision making with its unique strengths and weaknesses.     

Emotional Intelligence: An Opportunity for Occupational Therapy

Emotional intelligence theory developed within the psychology and business fields and is described as an ability to monitor emotions and to use the information to guide thinking and problem solving. Emotional intelligence skills are needed by occupational therapy practitioners to support therapeutic use of self, promote client-centered care, and foster communication skills within the workplace. A scenario illustrates how emotional intelligence supports the therapeutic use of self during a clinical interaction. The Mayer Salovey Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test is introduced as a resource for occupational therapy practitioners to measure and develop therapeutic relationship skills based upon emotional intelligence research.     

Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for judgment and decision theory and important pragmatic implications for older-adult decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age. However, age-related adaptive processes, including motivated selectivity in the use of deliberative capacity, an increased focus on emotional goals, and greater experience, predict better or worse decisions for older adults depending on the situation. The aim of the current review is to examine adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes in order to understand their potential impact on judgments and decisions. We review evidence for the role of these dual processes in judgment and decision making and then review two representative life-span perspectives (based on aging-related changes to cognitive or motivational processes) on the interplay between these processes. We present relevant predictions for older-adult decisions and make note of contradictions and gaps that currently exist in the literature. Finally, we review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and how theories and findings regarding dual processes could be applied to decision theory and decision aiding. In particular, we focus on prospect theory ( Kahneman & Tversky, 1979 ) and how prospect theory and theories regarding age differences in information processing can inform one another.     

Processes of patient decision making: Theoretical and methodological issues

Abstract

There is a paucity of research studying patients' decision making processes. Traditional normative approaches investigating human decision have presented rational, analytic processing as a ‘gold standard’ for decision making with decision aids developed to facilitate such thinking. This paradigm has been challenged by the recent emergence of naturalistic decision making. Naturalistic approaches argue for techniques modelled closer to how decisions are actually made in ‘real life’. Early work in this evolving field suggests the importance of more automatic, intuitive processing such as the use of heuristic short-cuts. This paper discusses the contribution of naturalistic decision theory and assesses its usefulness as an alternative to classical decision approaches in investigating patient decision making. Approaches for measuring underlying cognitive processes are also critically discussed.     

Game relativity: how context influences strategic decision making

Existing models of strategic decision making typically assume that only the attributes of the currently played game need be considered when reaching a decision. The results presented in this article demonstrate that the so-called "co-operativeness" of the previously played prisoner's dilemma games influence choices and predictions in the current prisoner's dilemma game, which suggests that games are not considered independently. These effects involved reinforcement-based assimilation to the previous choices and also a perceptual contrast of the present game with preceding games, depending on the range and the rank of their co-operativeness. A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory and H. Helson's (1964) adaptation level theory are plausible theories of relative judgment of magnitude information, which could provide an account of these context effects.     

CHC theory and the human cognitive abilities project: Standing on the shoulders of the giants of psychometric intelligence research

During the past decade the Cattell–Horn Gf–Gc and Carroll Three-Stratum models have emerged as the consensus psychometric-based models for understanding the structure of human intelligence. Although the two models differ in a number of ways, the strong correspondence between the two models has resulted in the increased use of a broad umbrella term for a synthesis of the two models (Cattell–Horn–Carroll theory of cognitive abilities—CHC theory).The purpose of this editorial is three-fold. First, I will describe the CHC framework and recommend that intelligence researchers begin using the CHC taxonomy as a common nomenclature for describing research findings and a theoretical framework from which to test hypotheses regarding various aspects of human cognitive abilities. Second, I argue that the emergence of the CHC framework should not be viewed as the capstone to the psychometric era of factor analytic research. Rather, I recommend the CHC framework serve as the stepping stone to reinvigorate the investigation of the structure of human intelligence.Finally, the Woodcock-Muñoz Foundation Human Cognitive Abilities (HCA) project, which is an evolving, free, on-line electronic archive of the majority of datasets analyzed in Carroll's (1993) seminal treatise on factor analysis of human cognitive abilities, is introduced and described. Intelligence scholars are urged to access the Carroll HCA datasets to test and evaluate structural models of human intelligence with contemporary methods (confirmatory factor analysis). In addition, suggestions are offered for linking the analysis of contemporary data sets with the seminal work of Carroll. The emergence of a consensus CHC taxonomy and access to the original datasets analyzed by Carroll provides an unprecedented opportunity to extend and refine our understanding of human intelligence.     

The Path of Least Resistance: Using Easy-to-Access Information

Abstract— Recent work on judgment and decision making has focused on how people preferentially use cues, or pieces of relevant information, that are easy to access when making decisions. In this article, we discuss a framework for understanding the ways that cues become accessible. We begin by identifying two components of cues and show how these components can become accessible during different parts a decision process. We highlight evidence for the use of accessible information and discuss implications for future research on heuristics.     

A dual‐system framework to understand preference construction processes in choice

Building on the dual-system theory of judgment, we propose an intuitive and deliberate framework for understanding the effects of preference construction in choice. We argue that while certain choice effects can be attributed primarily to rapid, unintentional, and intuitive processing, others arise from intentional and deliberate processing. We use this distinction to group choice effects previously identified in the literature, discuss evidence in support of the dual-system framework of preference construction, and propose new research directions. Since the defining property of intuitive versus deliberate mental processes is the degree to which they engage working memory, the proposed framework sheds light on how these previously identified effects will change with conditions such as the availability of cognitive resources. We conclude by calling for additional research to explore the interplay between intuitive and deliberate processing to determine which processes are implicated in generating a preference, as well as research on new moderators of choice effects based on the difference in the amount of willful information processing that underlies decision making.     

Intelligence analysts’ strategies for solving analytic tasks

Analytic performance may be assessed by the nature of the process applied to intelligence tasks and analysts are expected to use a “critical” or deliberative mindset. However, there is little research on how analysts do their work. We report the findings of a quantitative survey of 113 intelligence analysts who were asked to report how often they would apply strategies involving more or less critical thinking when performing representative tasks along the analytic workflow. Analysts reported using “deliberative” strategies significantly more often than “intuitive” ones when capturing customer requirements, processing data, and communicating conclusions. Years of experience working in the intelligence community, skill level, analytic thinking training, and time spent working collaboratively (opposed to individually) were largely unrelated to reported strategy use. We discuss the implications of these findings for both improving intelligence analysis and developing an evidence-based approach to policy and practice in this domain.     

时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响

本文基于经典的分解效应, 提出并证实了一种影响人们判断与决策中时间知觉的新因素--时间分解效应。共包括两个研究, 分别在“时间够用”判断与跨期决策中检验了该效应的存在性与稳固性。实验结果表明：(1)相比未分解条件, 分解条件下的被试判断给定时间内完成某项任务的时间更够用, 即时间知觉更长。该效应受到任务难度的调节, 在较简单的任务中时间分解效应更显著; (2)在跨期决策中, 分解操纵增大了人们对较大较远的收益(larger & later, LL)选项中时间延迟的知觉, 证实了时间分解效应。此外, 还发现时间分解效应会导致人们在跨期决策中更偏好较小较近的收益(smaller & sooner, SS)选项, 对时间延迟的知觉中介了这一过程。总之, 本研究不仅在理论上提出了一种新的分解效应, 同时对现实生活中的决策(如计划制定等)有重要的应用价值。     

Intelligence,Executive Functions,and Decision Making as Predictors of Antisocial Behavior in an Adolescent Sample of Justice‐Involved Youth and a Community Comparison Group

A clinical sample of justice‐involved male adolescents and a community comparison group were compared on a battery of cognitive ability tasks (intelligence and executive functions), decision making measures, and other individual difference measures, including ratings of self‐control, recognition of morally debatable behaviors, and antisocial beliefs. The clinical sample displayed lower performance on cognitive abilities and decision making than the community comparison group. In particular, the clinical group displayed less otherside thinking and more hostile attribution biases in unintentional situations compared with the community comparison group. Cognitive abilities and the decision making performance predicted group membership. Then, group membership, ratings of self‐control, attitudes about morally debatable behaviors, and antisocial beliefs predicted ratings of antisocial behavior in the full sample. These findings suggest that measures of cognitive ability and decision making make separate contributions to explaining antisocial behaviors. In addition, the predictors of group membership and antisocial behavior did not overlap, suggesting that antisocial behavior engagement in clinical samples may be separable from the continuum of antisocial behavior across the full sample. Cognitive science models of decision making can provide a framework for understanding antisocial behavior in clinical and community samples of adolescents. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Intelligence IV: Toward a restoration of general intelligence

The present paper points to the limitations of a focusing on narrow primary factors of intelligence and argues for broad-factor structuring of ability data. Recent studies of such broad attributes would suggest a "rapprochement" between Spearman's general intelligence model and Cattell's theory of Fluid and Crystallized Intelligence. Discussing the neo-Spearman organization of abilities thus proposed, the paper argues, however, that the conceptualization of intelligence suggested by this structural model is more akin to Thomson's "sampling" model than to the "power" model of both Spearman and Cattell. The possible role of these interpretations of ability data in future research on intelligent behavior is discussed.