一种新决策模型——量子决策模型

近10年以来, 一些学者基于量子理论研究思想与方法探索出了量子决策模型。由于该模型独特的理论结构, 它可被用于解释传统决策理论所难以解释的问题, 尤其是个体在不确定情况下的决策行为。该模型解释了诸如分离效应、分类决策的干涉效应以及合取谬误等传统决策模型很难解释的问题, 研究者已经证实其中一种称为量子问题等式的决策模型可以精确地预测决策中的顺序效应。作为一个有助于分析心理学中决策现象的新研究领域, 量子决策模型具有深入研究的理论意义和实践意义。     

Skill-based differences in option generation in a complex task: a verbal protocol analysis

In recent models of decision-making, cognitive scientists have examined the relationship between option generation and successful performance. These models suggest that those who are successful at decision-making generate few courses of action and typically choose the first, often best, option. Scientists working in the area of expert performance, on the other hand, have demonstrated that the ability to generate and prioritize task-relevant options during situation assessment is associated with successful performance. In the current study, we measured law enforcement officers’ performance and thinking in a simulated task environment to examine the option generation strategies used during decision-making in a complex domain. The number of options generated during assessment (i.e., making decisions about events in the environment) and intervention (i.e., making decisions about personal courses of action) phases of decision-making interact to produce a successful outcome. The data are explained with respect to the development of a situational representation and long-term working memory skills capable of supporting both option generation processes.     

团队决策及其影响因素

随着组织结构的变化,团队决策为越来越多的组织所采用。该文将团队决策的研究范式概括为以下四类：社会决策图式（social decision scheme, SDS）、信息取样模型（information sampling model）、项目排序任务（ranking item task）团队以及组织中以安全优先的团队（safety priority team）;并从影响团队决策的因素,提高团队决策质量的策略等角度分别对四类团队决策的研究进行探讨,在此基础上本文对未来研究进行了展望     

Religion and atrocity: the influence of religion on perpetrators,bystanders and victims during the Holocaust

Historical accounts of the Holocaust rarely pay regard to the impact of religion on the individual decision‐making process. Yet questions about how individuals perpetrated atrocities in the Final Solution stimulated research by Festinger, Kohlberg and Milgram which have contributed to developments in our understanding of decision making. It is the contention of this article that religion played an important role in individual thinking. The Holocaust occurred in the heart of Christian Europe, in societies that were actively religious. Thus, this article explores primary and secondary sources for evidence of the impact of religion on people at the time. Hilberg’s framework of perpetrators, bystanders and victims provides the structure for consideration. In each section issues are raised about the impact of religion in both interpreting and responding to events.     

To Use or Not to Use: Male Partners' Perspectives on Decision Making About Prenatal Diagnosis

We conducted an exploratory, qualitative pilot study investigating the use of genetic counseling and prenatal genetic technologies between women and their male partners for two referral groups: pregnant women 35 years of age and over (AMA) at the time of delivery and pregnant women with an abnormal maternal serum triple screen (MSAFP3). The convenience sample consisted of 25 semistructured interviews and 50 observations of genetic counseling sessions. Male partners' styles of decision making and the way they viewed prenatal diagnosis decision making were examined. We defined three decision-making styles based on our interpretation of the data: (1) domain, (2) joint-delegated, and (3) saliency. The male partners also seemed to view prenatal diagnosis as either an information decision or an action decision and appeared to take a more active role in decision making when the decision was viewed as an action decision.     

Paradoxical effects of base rates and representation in category learning

The inverse base rate effect (IBRE) continues to be a puzzling case of decision making on the basis of conflicting information in human category learning. After being trained via feedback over trials to assign combinations of cues to high- and low-frequency categories, participants tend to respond with the low-frequency category to an otherwise perfectly conflicting pair of test cues, contrary to the category base rates. Our Experiment 1 demonstrated that decision making on the basis of an explicit summary of the cue-outcome and outcome base rate information from the standard learning task does not result in the effect. The remaining experimental conditions evaluated the necessary and sufficient conditions for the effect by systematically exploring experimental deviations between the standard learning task and the pure decision-making task. In partial disagreement with both recent theoretical accounts of the effect, these experiments indicate that asymmetric outcome representation and profound base rate neglect are individually necessary and jointly sufficient conditions. Broader theoretical implications are discussed.     

Preference reversal in multiattribute choice

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity effects, have been explained by a number of theoretical proposals. Yet a major theoretical challenge is capturing all 3 effects simultaneously. We review the range of mechanisms that have been proposed to account for decoy effects and analyze in detail 2 computational models, decision field theory (Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001) and leaky competing accumulators (Usher & McClelland, 2004), that aim to combine several such mechanisms into an integrated account. By simulating the models, we examine differences in the ways the decoy effects are predicted. We argue that the LCA framework, which follows on Tversky's relational evaluation with loss aversion (Tversky & Kahneman, 1991), provides a more robust account, suggesting that common mechanisms are involved in both high-level decision making and perceptual choice, for which LCA was originally developed.     

The causal psycho-logic of choice

Choices do not merely identify one option among a set of possibilities; choosing is an intervention, an action that changes the world. As a result, good decision making generally requires a model specifying how actions are causally related to outcomes. Interventions license different inferences than observations because an event whose state has been determined by intervention is not diagnostic of the normal causes of that event. We integrate these ideas into a causal framework for decision making based on causal Bayes nets theory, and suggest that deliberate decision making is based on simplified causal models and imaginary interventions. The framework is consistent with what we know so far about how people make decisions.     

Constraint Respecters, Constraint Challengers, and Crisis Decision Making in Democracies: A Case Study Analysis of Kennedy versus Reagan

Models linking domestic political constraints (audience costs, pressures for the diversionary use of force, democratic norms and institutions) to foreign policy behavior generally assume that leaders simply recognize and submit to constraints in their domestic environments—a strong structural argument. In contrast, research on political leadership and decision making suggests that leaders vary systematically in their orientations toward constraints: "constraint respecters" tend to internalize potential constraints, while "constraint challengers" are more likely to view them as obstacles to be overcome. This article develops an integrative theoretical framework that explicitly incorporates these insights and applies them to the domain of crisis decision making. After identifying leaders' expected orientations toward constraints via at-a-distance methods, the plausibility of hypotheses derived from this framework is examined through case studies that explore the decision-making processes employed by President Kennedy (a "constraint respecter") and President Reagan (a "constraint challenger") during international crises. The results suggest that there is important variation in how leaders perceive and respond to domestic constraints, and that leadership style is one—though not the only—important source of this variation.     

Breaking the rules in perceptual information integration

We develop a broad theoretical framework for modelling difficult perceptual information integration tasks under different decision rules. The framework allows us to compare coactive architectures, which combine information before it enters the decision process, with parallel architectures, where logical rules combine independent decisions made about each perceptual source. For both architectures we test the novel hypothesis that participants break the decision rules on some trials, making a response based on only one stimulus even though task instructions require them to consider both. Our models take account of not only the decisions made but also the distribution of the time that it takes to make them, providing an account of speed-accuracy tradeoffs and response biases occurring when one response is required more often than another. We also test a second novel hypothesis, that the nature of the decision rule changes the evidence on which choices are based. We apply the models to data from a perceptual integration task with near threshold stimuli under two different decision rules. The coactive architecture was clearly rejected in favor of logical-rules. The logical-rule models were shown to provide an accurate account of all aspects of the data, but only when they allow for response bias and the possibility for subjects to break those rules. We discuss how our framework can be applied more broadly, and its relationship to Townsend and Nozawa’s (1995) Systems-Factorial Technology.     

Employing Ethical Codes and Decision-Making Models: A Developmental Process

Counselors often encounter seemingly intractable ethical dilemmas. To assist counselors who face difficult situations, the helping professions have generated both ethical codes and decision-making models. Because the process of decision making seems to be related to cognitive-moral development, this article details ethical codes and decision models and speculates on how counselor level of development may influence use of such codes and models.     

Decision moving window: using interactive eye tracking to examine decision processes

It has become increasingly more important for researchers to better capture the complexities of making a decision. To better measure cognitive processes such as attention during decision making, we introduce a new methodology: the decision moving window, which capitalizes on both mouse-tracing and eye-tracking methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology in a probabilistic inferential decision task where we reliably measure attentional processing during decision making while allowing the person to determine how information is acquired. We outline the advantages of this methodological paradigm and how it can advance both decision-making research and the development of new metrics to capture cognitive processes in complex tasks.     

决策风格的理论发展及建构：基于信息加工视角

决策风格是人们在决策中表现出来的习惯性或独特的行为模式, 对决策、管理等领域均有重要影响。近年兴起的决策风格理论主要基于个体信息加工策略, 如基于双加工理论和基于后悔情绪的决策风格模型等。决策风格对个体决策的影响表现在决策策略与偏差、情绪和无意识加工等方面。该领域在诸如决策风格的主要理论、测量工具和理论检验等方面亦取得积极进展, 未来研究方向应注意基于双加工理论和进化心理学建构决策风格理论。     

Task conflict,information processing,and decision-making: The damaging effect of relationship conflict

A popular theoretical assumption holds that task-related disagreements stimulate critical thinking, and thus may improve group decision making. Two recent meta-analyses showed, however, that task conflict can have a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect at all on decision-making quality (De Dreu & Weingart, 2003; De Wit, Greer, & Jehn, 2012). In two studies, we built upon the suggestion of both meta-analyses that the presence of relationship conflict determines whether a task conflict is positively or negatively related to decision making. We hypothesized and found that the level of perceived relationship conflict during task conflict (Study 1), and the actual presence (vs. absence) of relationship conflict during task conflict (Study 2), increased group members’ rigidity in holding onto suboptimal initial preferences during decision making and thus led to poor decisions. In both studies the effect of relationship conflict on decision making was mediated by biased use of information.     

The relation between career decision-making strategies and person-job fit: A study of job changers

This study examined relations between three career decision-making strategies (rational, intuitive, and dependent) and person-job fit among 361 professionals who had recently changed jobs. We found that the relation between each decision-making strategy and fit was contingent upon the concurrent use of other strategies. A rational strategy related more strongly to fit when individuals also engaged in extensive intuitive decision making than when they engaged in limited intuitive decision making. In addition, a dependent strategy related negatively to fit only in the absence of extensive rational or intuitive strategies. Moreover, self-awareness and awareness of the environment mediated relations between career decision-making strategies and person-job fit. The implications of these findings for future research on career decision making were discussed.     

Cross-cultural Differences in Self-reported Decision-making Style and Confidence

The Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, Burnett, Radford, & Ford, 1997) measures self-reported decision-making coping patterns. The questionnaire was administered to samples of University students in the US (N = 475), Australia (N = 262), New Zealand (N = 260), Japan (N = 359), Hong Kong (N = 281), and Taiwan (N = 414). As predicted, students from the three Western, individualistic cultures (US, Australia, and New Zealand) were more confident of their decision-making ability than students from the three East Asian, group-oriented cultures (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan). No cross-cultural differences were found in scores on decision vigilance (a careful decision-making style). However, compared with Western students, the Asian students tended to score higher on buck-passing and procrastination (avoidant styles of decision making) as well as hypervigilance (a panicky style of decision making). Japanese students scored lowest on decision self-esteem and highest on procrastination and hypervigilance. It was argued that the conflict model and its attendant coping patterns is relevant for describing and comparing decision making in both Western and Asian cultures.     

State-based versus reward-based motivation in younger and older adults

Recent decision-making work has focused on a distinction between a habitual, model-free neural system that is motivated toward actions that lead directly to reward and a more computationally demanding goal-directed, model-based system that is motivated toward actions that improve one’s future state. In this article, we examine how aging affects motivation toward reward-based versus state-based decision making. Participants performed tasks in which one type of option provided larger immediate rewards but the alternative type of option led to larger rewards on future trials, or improvements in state. We predicted that older adults would show a reduced preference for choices that led to improvements in state and a greater preference for choices that maximized immediate reward. We also predicted that fits from a hybrid reinforcement-learning model would indicate greater model-based strategy use in younger than in older adults. In line with these predictions, older adults selected the options that maximized reward more often than did younger adults in three of the four tasks, and modeling results suggested reduced model-based strategy use. In the task where older adults showed similar behavior to younger adults, our model-fitting results suggested that this was due to the utilization of a win-stay–lose-shift heuristic rather than a more complex model-based strategy. Additionally, within older adults, we found that model-based strategy use was positively correlated with memory measures from our neuropsychological test battery. We suggest that this shift from state-based to reward-based motivation may be due to age related declines in the neural structures needed for more computationally demanding model-based decision making.     

Goal‐Proximity Decision‐Making

Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision‐making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal‐option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed mechanism, Goal‐Proximity Decision‐making (GPD), is implemented within the ACT‐R cognitive framework. GPD is found to be more efficient than RL in three maze‐navigation simulations. GPD advantages over RL seem to grow as task difficulty is increased. An experiment is presented where participants are asked to make choices in the absence of prior reward. GPD captures human performance in this experiment better than RL.     

Curriculum-based measurement: Conceptual underpinnings and integration into problem-solving assessment

This article presents a case study exemplifying the use of curriculum-based measurement (CBM) in educational decision making. CBM is portrayed as more than just a set of brief fluency tests with strong conceptual ties to three related assessment models, viz., behavioral, ecological, and problem-solving assessment. The key elements of each of these models are delineated. A case study is presented to show how CBM is integrated into problem-solving educational assessment and decision-making practices.