Akrasia,instincts and revealed preferences

Recently in epistemology a number of authors have mounted Bayesian objections to dogmatism. These objections depend on a Bayesian principle of evidential confirmation: Evidence E confirms hypothesis H just in case Pr(H|E) > Pr(H). I argue using Keynes’ and Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty that the Bayesian principle fails to accommodate the intuitive notion of having no reason to believe. Consider as an example an unfamiliar card game: at first, since you’re unfamiliar with the game, you assign credences based on the indifference principle. Later you learn how the game works and discover that the odds dictate you assign the very same credences. Examples like this show that if you initially have noreason to believe H, then intuitively E can give you reason to believe H even though Pr(H|E) ≤ Pr(H). I show that without the principle, the objections to dogmatism fail.     

Second-order probability affects hypothesis confirmation

Bayesian confirmation measures give numerical expression to the impact of evidence E on a hypothesis H. All measures proposed to date are formal—that is, functions of the probabilities Pr(E∧H), Pr(E∧¬H), Pr(¬E∧H), Pr(¬E∧¬H), and nothing more. Experiments reported in Tentori, Crupi, and Osherson (2007) suggest that human confirmation judgment is not formal, but this earlier work leaves open the possibility that formality holds relative to a given semantic domain. The present study discredits even this weaker version of formality by demonstrating the role in confirmation judgments of a probability distribution defined over the possible values of Pr(E∧H), Pr(E∧¬H), Pr(¬E∧H), and Pr(¬E∧¬H)—that is, a second-order probability. Specifically, when for each of the latter quantities a pointwise value is fixed with a maximal second-order probability, evidence impact is rated in accordance with formal and normatively credible confirmation measures; otherwise evidence impact is systematically judged as more moderate.     

Irrelevant conjunction and the ratio measure or historical skepticism

It is widely believed that one should not become more confident that all swans are white and all lions are brave simply by observing white swans. Irrelevant conjunction or “tacking” of a theory onto another is often thought problematic for Bayesianism, especially given the ratio measure of confirmation considered here. It is recalled that the irrelevant conjunct is not confirmed at all. Using the ratio measure, the irrelevant conjunction is confirmed to the same degree as the relevant conjunct, which, it is argued, is ideal: the irrelevant conjunct is irrelevant. Because the past’s really having been as it now appears to have been is an irrelevant conjunct, present evidence confirms theories about past events only insofar as irrelevant conjunctions are confirmed. Hence the ideal of not confirming irrelevant conjunctions would imply that historical claims are not confirmed. Confirmation measures partially realizing that ideal make the confirmation of historical claims by present evidence depend strongly on the (presumably subjective) degree of belief in the irrelevant conjunct. The unusually good behavior of the ratio measure has a bearing on the problem of measure sensitivity. For non-statistical hypotheses, Bayes’ theorem yields a fractional linear transformation in the prior probability, not a linear rescaling, so even the ratio measure arguably does not aptly measure confirmation in such cases.     

On Ratio Measures of Confirmation

There are different Bayesian measures to calculate the degree of confirmation of a hypothesis H in respect of a particular piece of evidence E. Zalabardo (Analysis 69:630–635, 2009) is a recent attempt to defend the likelihood-ratio measure (LR) against the probability-ratio measure (PR). The main disagreement between LR and PR concerns their sensitivity to prior probabilities. Zalabardo invokes intuitive plausibility as the appropriate criterion for choosing between them. Furthermore, he claims that it favours the ordering of pairs evidence/hypothesis generated by LR. We will argue, however, that the intuitive non-numerical example provided by Zalabardo does not show that prior probabilities do not affect the degree of confirmation. On account of this, we conclude that there is no compelling reason to endorse LR qua measure of degree of confirmation. On the other side, we should not forget some technicalities which still benefit PR.     

Empirical evidence claims are a priori

This paper responds to Achinstein’s criticism of the thesis that the only empirical fact that can affect the truth of an objective evidence claim such as ‘e is evidence for h’ (or ‘e confirms h to degree r’) is the truth of e. It shows that cases involving evidential flaws, which form the basis for Achinstein’s objections to the thesis, can satisfactorily be accounted for by appeal to changes in background information and working assumptions. The paper also argues that the a priori and empirical accounts of evidence are on a par when we consider scientific practice, but that a study of artificial intelligence might serve to differentiate them.     

On what inferentially justifies what: the vices of reliabilism and proper functionalism

We commonly say that some evidence supports a hypothesis or that some premise evidentially supports a conclusion. Both internalists and externalists attempt to analyze this notion of evidential support, and the primary purpose of this paper is to argue that reliabilist and proper functionalist accounts of this relation fail. Since evidential support is one component of inferential justification, the upshot of this failure is that their accounts of inferential justification also fail. In Sect. 2, I clarify the evidential support relation. In Sects. 3–5, I subject reliabilist and proper functionalist accounts of evidential support to various counterexamples. In Sect. 6, I show that the most promising ways to address these counterexamples aren’t very promising.     

Commentary on Wolford,Taylor, and Beck: The conjunction fallacy?

AlthoughP(A&B|X) can never exceedP(A|X) (the conjunction rule), it is possible forP(X|A&B) to exceedP(X|A). Hence, people who rankA&B as more probable thanA are not necessarily violating any normative rule if the ranking is done in terms of the probability of these events to yield an eventX. Wolford, Taylor, and Beck (1990) have argued that this indeed is what happens in some problems (e.g. Tversky& Kahneman’s [1983] Linda problem). The claim made here is that the Linda problem is hard to reconcile with this interpretation; that there is little if any evidence that subjects utilize this interpretation; and that in any case, representativeness can account for all Linda problem results.     

When does self-reported prosocial motivation predict helping? The moderating role of implicit prosocial motivation

In three studies, we tested a motivational model to predict different types of helping from an interactionist, dual-system perspective. We argued that helping behavior is determined by the interplay of two distinct motivational systems: the explicit (i.e., conscious) and the implicit (i.e., unconscious). In line with previous research we expected that explicit prosocial motivation relates to helping, and additionally proposed that depending on the type of helping this relationship is moderated by implicit prosocial motivation: For planned helping, explicit prosocial motivation is a sufficient predictor, regardless of implicit prosocial motivation. For spontaneous helping, on the other hand, the effect of explicit prosocial motivation is moderated by implicit prosocial motivation, and only predictive when also implicit prosocial motivation is high. Study 1 (207 Dutch participants, M _age  = 51.7 years; 51.7 % female) with self-reported willingness to help as dependent variable confirmed that planned helping was determined by explicit prosocial motivation, whereas its effect on spontaneous helping was moderated by implicit prosocial motivation. Study 2 (193 U.S. participants, M _age  = 35.2 years; 64.2 % female) with real-life measures of planned help confirmed the hypothesized main effect of explicit prosocial motivation. Study 3 (73 Dutch participants, M _age  = 20.8 years; 68.5 % female) with a real-life measure of spontaneous helping confirmed the moderating role of implicit prosocial motivation, as the effect of explicit prosocial motivation on helping was only significant for individuals with high implicit prosocial motivation. We argue that considering implicit prosocial motivation provides an overlooked avenue for a more systematic investigation of helping.     

Tensile properties of precracked tempered martensitic steel specimens tested at ultralow strain rates in high-pressure hydrogen atmosphere

Tensile tests were performed on precracked Cr–Mo martensitic steel (C: 0.38, Si: 0.22, Mn: 0.84, P: 0.024, S: 0.021, Ni: 0.08, Cr: 1.11, Mo: 0.15, Cu: 0.12, Fe: bal. (wt%)) specimens at various strain rates (ranging from 6.5 × 10^?8 s^?1 to 1.0 × 10^?4 s^?1) in high-pressure (95 MPa) hydrogen and helium atmospheres. Irrespective of the strain rate, the tensile strength in the helium atmosphere was 1400 MPa. In the hydrogen atmosphere, the tensile strength decreased to less than 600 MPa at a strain rate of 2.0 × 10^?5 s^?1. However, the tensile strength increased to 900 MPa when the strain rate was decreased to 6.5 × 10^?8 s^?1. This recovery of the tensile strength was because of the decrease in the local stress in the vicinity of the precrack because of hydrogen.     

Development and Preliminary Validation of the Threat Appraisal Questionnaire for Children (TAQ-C)

Despite the emphasis on threat appraisal in cognitive models of anxiety, self-report measures of related processes in children and adolescents have been lacking. This paper reports on the development and preliminary psychometric evaluation of a new measure of threat appraisal for children and adolescents – the Threat Appraisal Questionnaire for Children (TAQ-C). Based on current conceptualisations of threat appraisal, the TAQ-C was designed to index the construct across three dimensions: probability, cost, and coping difficulties. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was used to examine this structure in a community sample of n = 312 children (ages 9–15 years, 55% female). Results indicated that the scores on the instrument capture three factors (Probability, Cost and Coping difficulties). Moreover, a model in which the 1st-order factors loaded significantly on a single 2nd order factor of threat in general, was supported. The TAQ-C was found to demonstrate good internal consistency, and acceptable levels of test-retest reliability within a 3–4 week interval, when evaluated with a subsample of n = 51 children. Support for convergent validity was demonstrated, with TAQ-C scores found to correlate strongly with existing measures of child anxiety, and conceptually related cognitive processes. Divergent validity was also evidenced, with low correlations found between TAQ-C scores and the unrelated construct measure of Hyperactivity-Inattention. The TAQ-C, therefore, appears to be a promising measure with a range of potential applications for child and adolescent settings.     

Skill Acquisition and Utilization During Evidence-Based Psychosocial Treatments for Childhood Disruptive Behavior Problems: A Review and Meta-analysis

We review 85 empirical articles published since 2000 that measured the acquisition and/or utilization of parent management skills and/or child cognitive-behavioral skills in the context of an evidence-based treatment (EBT) for childhood behavior problems. Results showed that: (1) there are no standardized measures of skill acquisition or skill utilization that are used across treatments, (2) little is known about predictors, correlates, or outcomes associated with skill acquisition and utilization, and (3) few studies systematically examined techniques to enhance the acquisition and utilization of specific skills. Meta-analytic results from a subset of 68 articles (59 studies) showed an overall treatment–control ES = .31, p < .01 for skill acquisition and ES = .20, p = ns for skill utilization. We recommend that future research focus on the following three areas: (1) development of standardized measures of skill acquisition and utilization from a “common elements” perspective that can used across EBTs; (2) assessment of the predictors, correlates, and outcomes associated with skill acquisition and utilization; and (3) development of innovative interventions to enhance the acquisition and utilization of cognitive-behavioral and parent management skills.     

Conditional Random Quantities and Compounds of Conditionals

In this paper we consider conditional random quantities (c.r.q.’s) in the setting of coherence. Based on betting scheme, a c.r.q. X|H is not looked at as a restriction but, in a more extended way, as \({XH + \mathbb{P}(X|H)H^c}\) ; in particular (the indicator of) a conditional event E|H is looked at as EH +  P(E|H)H ^c . This extended notion of c.r.q. allows algebraic developments among c.r.q.’s even if the conditioning events are different; then, for instance, we can give a meaning to the sum X|H + Y|K and we can define the iterated c.r.q. (X|H)|K. We analyze the conjunction of two conditional events, introduced by the authors in a recent work, in the setting of coherence. We show that the conjoined conditional is a conditional random quantity, which may be a conditional event when there are logical dependencies. Moreover, we introduce the negation of the conjunction and by applying De Morgan’s Law we obtain the disjoined conditional. Finally, we give the lower and upper bounds for the conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events, by showing that the usual probabilistic properties continue to hold.     

The Role of Spiritual Experiences and Activities in the Relationship Between Chronic Illness and Psychological Well-Being

Our research explores the correlates of spiritual experiences over a 2-year period in a sample of older adults (N = 164; mean age 81.9 years) living in a continuing care retirement community. Utilizing responses to the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale, scores were analyzed for changes over time and for their hypothesized moderating effect in the relationship between chronic illness impact and markers of psychological well-being (as measured by the Geriatric Depression and Life Satisfaction scales). Repeated measures ANOVA indicated a significant decline (P < .01) in the reported spiritual experiences over a 2-year period of time, and t tests showed a significant difference by gender (P < .01) in years 1 and 2, with women reporting higher levels of spiritual experiences than men. Analyses found low spirituality scores associated with low life satisfaction in all years (baseline: r = ?.288, P < .01; year 1: r = ?.209, P < .05; year 2: r = ?.330, P < .001). Only weak associations were detected between low spirituality and the presence of depressive symptoms at baseline (r = .186, P < .05) and year 2 (r = .254, P < .01). Moderation effects of spirituality on the relationship between chronic illness impact and markers of psychological well-being were explored in all years, with a statistically significant effect found only for the presence of depressive symptoms in year 2. Higher impact of chronic illnesses is associated with more depressive symptoms under conditions of low spirituality. Future research may center upon longer-duration evaluation of reliance upon spiritual practices and their impact in care management models.     

The Social Behavior Scale for Preschool Children: Factorial Structure and Concurrent Validity

The aims of the present study were to examine the factor validity of a new social behavior assessment - the Social Behavior Scale (SBS) - using exploratory (sample 1, n = 169) and confirmatory (sample 2, n = 127) factor analysis, and to test factor invariance across gender in a sample of Italian preschoolers. The concurrent validity of the SBS was examined with measures of peer nominations and observed interactions (sample 3, n = 277). Findings confirmed the three-factor structure of the SBS: Emotional Competence, Social Engagement and Aggressiveness. Multigroup analysis provided evidence of factor invariance across gender. Concerning concurrent validity, results confirmed a great association between teacher-rating SBS and the other concurrent measures.     

Patients’ and Parents’ Perceptions of Appearance in Scoliosis Treated with a Brace: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

The perspective of trunk deformity is a matter of special concern for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients. No research group has ever reported interviewing patients and their parents regarding differences in perception of body appearance in the course of Cheneau brace treatment. We aimed to investigate the level of agreement in the field of concerns and perceptions of spinal appearance in relation to brace- and scoliosis-related data between parents and female patients with AIS, treated with a Cheneau brace, by means of the Spinal Appearance Questionnaire-pl (SAQ-pl). In this cross-sectional study forty-one pairs of parents and female patients with AIS were asked to separately complete the Polish versions of the Spinal Appearance Questionnaire-pl patient form (SAQ-pl patient form) and the SAQ-pl parent form. Age of patients was 13.60 years SD 1.60 (range 10–17). Patients scored 2.70 (SD 0.60) and parents scored 2.70 SD 0.60 in the total score of the SAQ-pl. The study groups do not differ significantly in regards to the SAQ-pl results. The percentage of consistent answers on SAQ-pl items ranges from 34.10 % (item 20) to 78 % (item 8). Height, age and brace-wearing time per day, were significantly related to the differences in the patient-parent General perception of body shape (r _s  = ?0.51, r _s  = ?0.34, r _s  = 0.36, respectively). Parents and female patients with AIS have similar concerns and perceptions of spinal appearance. The discrepancies in General perception of spinal appearance between parents and AIS females decrease with age of patient. Parental emotional support may contribute to minimizing the risk factors of psychological impairment, especially in late adolescents with AIS.     

Effects of Weight Cue Reactivity on Self-Report Measures of Body Dissatisfaction

Research has shown that answers on self-report measures can be influenced by a participant’s awareness of information regarding the study (“reactivity”). There exists a gap in the literature regarding weight cue reactivity on self-report measures of body dissatisfaction (BD). This type of reactivity involves exposing participants to information regarding their height, weight, or body mass index (BMI). Ninety-Nine participants (45.5 % female, mean age = 20.17, SD = 3.08) were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: proximal weight cue (being weighed before completing measures); distal weight cue (knowledge of impending measurement following questionnaire completion); and no weight cues (control), all before measures of BD. Perceived body size and BD were measured using the Stunkard Figure Rating Scale. Two separate ANCOVAs revealed a significant main effect for condition on self-reported perceived body size F [2,92] = 5.22, p = 0.01, η2 = 0.10, as well as on BD, F [2,92] = 9.46, p < 0.001, η2 = 0.17, while controlling for BMI. Both proximal and distal cues elicited elevated BD; only proximal cues elicited self-reported perceived body size. These results quantify the impact of weight cue reactivity effects on self-report measures and suggest that researchers and/or clinicians collect answers on such measures prior to anthropometric data.     

Resilience to Interpersonal Trauma and Decreased Risk for Psychopathology in an Epidemiologic Sample

Quantitative measures of psychological resilience related to discrete stressors, such as interpersonal (IP) trauma, are lacking. The current study examined whether a novel, quantitative measure of resilience was related to decreased risk for a broad range of lifetime DSM-IV axis I disorders in an epidemiologic sample. Resilience was defined as the residual resulting from the difference between the individual’s predicted and observed PTSD symptom count, based on their cumulative exposure to IP traumatic events. Participants were 6288 adults (59.5% women; M _age  = 46.9, SD = 14.5) from the National Epidemiologic Study on Alcohol and Related Conditions endorsing at least one lifetime IP traumatic event. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between resilience and axis I diagnoses, covarying for age, sex, education level, social support, and recent stressful life events. Greater resilience scores were associated with decreased likelihood of major depression (OR = .64, p < .001), generalized anxiety disorder (OR = .65, p < .001), social anxiety disorder (OR = .74, p < .001), panic disorder (OR = .65, p <. 001), and alcohol dependence (OR = .85, p < .001). Discrepancy between expected and observed PTSD symptom severity based on IP trauma load may represent a useful, quantitative measure of resilience.