The effect of accountability on loss aversion

This paper investigates the effect of accountability—the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else—on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.     

概率水平与模糊性对短视损失规避的影响

短视损失规避是指如果投资者频繁地评估其投资回报,那么他就会经常改变其投资决策,进而减少对风险资产的投入。本文采用实验法探讨了任务概率水平以及模糊性对短视损失规避的影响。结果发现短视损失规避只存在于中等损失概率任务中,说明该现象并非普遍存在;当概率模糊时,高损失概率任务中出现短视损失规避,而低损失概率任务中则出现反向的短视损失规避,说明模糊性能扩展“短视”起作用的概率范围。     

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory.     

On the composition of risk preference and belief

Prospect theory assumes nonadditive decision weights for preferences over risky gambles. Such decision weights generalize additive probabilities. This article proposes a decomposition of decision weights into a component reflecting risk attitude and a new component depending on belief. The decomposition is based on an observable preference condition and does not use other empirical primitives such as statements of judged probabilities. The preference condition is confirmed by most of the experimental findings in the literature. The implied properties of the belief component suggest that, besides the often-studied ambiguity aversion (a motivational factor reflecting a general aversion to unknown probabilities), perceptual and cognitive limitations play a role: It is harder to distinguish among various levels of likelihood, and to process them differently, when probabilities are unknown than when they are known.     

行为决策中模糊规避研究的回顾与展望

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会偏好有精确概率的事件而不是从主观上判断具有相同模糊概率的事件。自从Ellsberg提出模糊规避的概念以来,模糊规避已在行为决策研究的多个领域得到广泛验证。本文梳理了近五十年来关于模糊规避的研究文献,系统分析了模糊规避的研究范式、心理机制和影响因素,同时提出了未来的研究展望。     

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon.     

Attributions for ambiguity in a treatment-decision context can create ambiguity aversion or seeking

The phenomenon of ambiguity aversion suggests that people prefer options that offer precisely rather than imprecisely known chances of success. However, past work on people's responses to ambiguity in health treatment contexts found ambiguity seeking rather than aversion. The present work addressed whether such findings reflected a broad tendency for ambiguity seeking in health treatment contexts or whether specific attributions for ambiguity play a substantial role. In three studies, people choose between two treatment options that involved similar underlying probabilities, except that the probabilities for one option involved ambiguity. The attributions offered for the ambiguity played an important role in the results. For example, when the range of probabilities associated with an ambiguous treatment was attributed to the fact that different studies yield different results, participants tended to show ambiguity aversion or indifference. However, when the range was attributed to something that participants could control (e.g., regular application of a cream) or something about which they were overoptimistic (e.g., their immune system function), participants tended to show ambiguity seeking. Health professionals should be mindful of how people will interpret and use information about ambiguity when choosing among treatments.     

Joint independent random utility models where one of the choice structures satisfies the strict utility model

It is known that one cannot construct an independent joint random utility model for which both the preference and aversion probabilities satisfy the strict utility model. Given this result, it is natural to ask what kind of relations are possible in such contexts. Here, for instance, we demonstrate that if a structure of preference and aversion probabilities are generated by a common independent random utility model, and if the preference probabilities satisfy the strict utility model, then the preference and aversion probabilities are related by what is known as the strong acceptance condition. We also prove an appropriate converse of this result. Finally, an example is given of a process (other than the random utility model) that is compatible with the assumption that a structure of preference and aversion probabilities satisfies a common strict utility model.     

概率大小、损益结果和认知闭合需要对模糊规避的影响

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会力图规避从主观上判断具有模糊概率的事件而偏好具有相同精确概率的事件。本研究探讨了概率大小、损益结果和认知闭合需要对模糊规避的影响。研究发现,在小概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊寻求;在中概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在高概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在小概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在中概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在高概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊寻求。但是,研究并未发现认知闭合需要对模糊规避有预测作用。     

模糊规避的形成机制：基于可评价性假设的视角

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会力图规避从主观上判断具有模糊概率的事件而偏好具有相同精确概率的事件。本研究使用同时评价、单独评价的研究范式从随机事件和自然事件两个领域来探讨模糊规避的形成机制。研究结果表明,当风险事件和模糊事件同时评价时,个体倾向于模糊规避;当风险事件和模糊事件单独评价时,模糊规避会消失。     

Circadian rhythm sleep disorders as a possible side effect of fluvoxamine

Sleep problems, day somnolence, and fatigue as a result of psychotropic drugs are very common. Psychiatrists usually consider these effects a result of insomnia and treat them by prescribing sleeping pills or other benzodiazepine agents. We describe here 10 cases of circadian rhythm sleep disorders (CRSD)--and not merely insomnia--as a possible side effect of fluvoxamine (FVA). Two other serotonin reuptake inhibitors, fluoxetine and clomipramine, did not induce CRSD in any of these 10 patients. We speculate that FVA-induced CRSD is caused by the effect of FVA on serotonin and melatonin levels in the central nervous system. CRSD as a side effect of FVA can be treated by replacing the suspected FVA or adding melatonin to a beneficial FVA treatment. Thus, it is important to be aware of possible iatrogenic CRSD in order to treat appropriately. Prospective studies are needed to confirm our observation and to study the influence of other psychotropic drugs on sleep-wake schedule.     

LOTTERIES AND THE TIME HORIZON

Abstract— People chose between hypothetical alternatives of (a) a million-dollar lottery prize and (b) a much smaller but certain amount of money When probabilities of winning the lottery were above about 1/100,000, subjects avoided risk, for example, a 1/100,000 probability of the million-dollar prize was chosen about as often as $700 for sure But at probabilities below 1/100,000, subjects sought risk, for example, a 1/1,000,000 probability of the million-dollar prize was chosen about as often as $9 for sure This crossover from risk aversion to risk seeking is predicted by Mazur's (1987) hyperbolic delay discount function with probability expressed as average delay due to strings of losses followed by a win, together with a time horizon limiting subjective delay     

Tests for inhibition after extinction of a conditioned stimulus in the flavour aversion procedure

In four experiments, rats received flavour aversion conditioning followed by extinction. The flavour was then subjected to retardation and summation tests. Experiment 1 showed that reacquisition of an extinguished flavour aversion was retarded with respect to the performance shown by rats for whom the flavour was novel. No retardation was found, however, with respect to a control group that had been given non-reinforced pre-exposure to the flavour. Experiment 2 demonstrated that extinction showed the same sensitivity to the effects of a retention interval as did latent inhibition, consistent with the view that the retardation effect was a consequence of the occurrence of latent inhibition during extinction. An extinguished stimulus was also found to alleviate the response governed by aseparately trained excitor in a summation test (Experiments 3 and 4), but the size of this effect did not exceed that produced by a control stimulus when the procedure used ensured an equivalent aversion to the test excitor in the two cases. These results challenge the proposal that extinction can turn a stimulus into a net inhibitor.     

澳门人少涉赌是规避风险还是规避后悔？

是风险规避还是后悔规避左右人们的冒险行为？基于风险行为跨领域特殊性,本研究假设：决策者是规避风险还是规避后悔具有领域特异性。本研究选取有涉赌经验的澳门居民为样本,以其参与13种博彩的次数为指标考察其真实风险行为。结果验证了上述假设,风险规避说或后悔规避说都不能单独解释个体的风险倾向,个体是风险规避、后悔规避,或二者皆有,取决于其所处的具体风险情境类别。该发现有助于加深对风险行为特征的认识,亦可为预防及应对问题赌博提供启发和指导。     

Chemical aversion conditioning as a treatment for alcoholism: A re-analysis

The literature on chemical aversion conditioning is characterized by the lack of controlled clinical research. The existing data derive primarily from methodologically inadequate studies. Although short-term conditioned aversion reactions to alcohol have been demonstrated, the independent efficacy of this technique in clinical treatment remains to be shown. Beyond the failure to demonstrate the value of adding chemical aversion conditioning to more standard treatments for alcoholism, evaluation in terms of broader outcome criteria (e.g. safety, intrusiveness, acceptability, the availability of alternative methods, and cost-effectiveness) indicates that chemical aversion conditioning cannot be recommended as a standard form of treatment for alcoholism.     

The Elusiveness of Gustatory Potentiation of an Environmental Aversion

Two experiments investigated conditions that influence whether or not the presence of a flavor cue potentiates acquisition of an environmental aversion. Experiments 1 and 2 exposed rats to either a salient sucrose flavor or nonsalient water with black box-illness pairings. Half of the rats in the sucrose and water treatment groups became ill after exposure to the black chamber in their home cage. The other half of the rats in the two treatment conditions became ill in the black box. The results of each study indicated that a strong environmental aversion was established when illness was associated with exposure to the black box. The aversiveness of the black chamber was indicated by both less time spent in the black side and reduced intake in the black chamber. The presence of sucrose during conditioning did produce a stronger black box aversion than did water. Reliable potentiation of the environmental aversion, however, was seen only when the illness experience occurred in the black chamber but not when illness occurred in the home cage. A weaker aversion to the black chamber was also found in the water groups when illness occurred shortly after experience with the black box than when illness immediately followed exposure to the black chamber.

     

Ambiguity Attitudes over Time

Previous research demonstrates that individuals exhibit a stronger level of ambiguity aversion for high probabilities than for low probabilities. Given that risky and ambiguous prospects are often unresolved until a future date (e.g., investment decisions, new product launches, and medical interventions), this study examines the impact of time on ambiguity preferences at different probability levels. Our experimental results indicate that although ambiguity preferences for low‐probability events remain constant, a robust effect of time occurs for high‐probability events. More specifically, temporal distance mitigates ambiguity aversion. This effect is consistent for different elicitation methods (preference rating and probability–ambiguity trade‐off tasks). We propose a dual‐process model (affective versus cognitive processing styles) to explain our results. Affective processing for high‐probability lotteries resolved in the current period increases ambiguity aversion, while cognitive processing leads to less ambiguity‐averse choices for future lotteries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Top Management in Developing a Customer-Oriented Sales Force

A national random sample of industrial salespeople was surveyed to examine the effects of salespeople’s perceptions of top management long-term orientation, top management emphasis, and top management risk aversion on customer-oriented selling behaviors. The results indicated that perceived top management long-term orientation had a significantly positive effect on perceived top management emphasis and a significantly negative effect on perceived top management risk aversion. In turn, perceived top management emphasis positively affected customer-oriented selling, whereas perceived top management risk aversion did not affect customer-oriented selling. The study underscores the importance of salespeople’s perceptions of top management factors for implementing the marketing concept. The managerial implications of these findings are discussed and several directions for future research are proposed.     

行为经济学中的损失规避

损失规避是指,人们总是强烈倾向于规避损失：一定数额的损失所引起的心理感受,其强烈程度约相当于两倍数额的获益感受。这种强烈的心理与行为倾向广泛存在于风险与非风险领域,在该两个领域中损失规避的研究范式也不同。损失规避常见于经济和消费等领域,可用于解释行为决策中有悖于规范化理论的诸多现象,如禀赋效应、现状偏差、股权溢价之迷和赢者的诅咒等。然而,损失规避的机制研究还存在许多尚未解决的问题,如损失规避的本质以及适用条件。今后的研究不仅要注重认知角度和情感依恋,还要结合认知过程来研究损失规避的性质和内在机制,以期帮助人们认识、预测及干预由损失规避造成的经济损失和非理性决策。