Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates

Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the “process-performance paradox.” The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.     

Studies in olfactory acuity. I: Measurement of olfactory thresholds in the rat

The capacity of the rat to respond to olfactory cues has been studied in three experimental situations: (i) an elevated Y-maze, (ii) a rectangular choice apparatus in which extraneous environmental cues were present, and (iii) a circular choice apparatus from which such cues were either excluded or randomized.

No rat showed any sign of learning on the Y-maze even after extensive training and the application of electric shock as deterrent for error.

Some rats succeeded in performing an olfactory discrimination in the rectangular choice apparatus but learning was retarded, and in some cases inhibited, by the counter-influence of non-olfactory factors.

All rats readily learned an identical discrimination when shielded from such cues in the circular choice apparatus which provides a satisfactory medium both for training and for the study of olfactory acuity.

Differences in the behaviour of rats on these three types of apparatus suggest first, that the formation of learned habits based on olfaction depends on the close contiguity of stimulus and reward, and second that the sense of smell possesses weak orientating properties by comparison with those exerted by other modalities. The findings thus help to explain differences in the ease or di+culty uith which olfactory discriminations have been established by earlier workers.     

Factors in the waning of muricide in the rat: I. Analysis of intra- and intersession decrement

If each mouse killed by a rat is removed from the rat's home cage and replaced immediately by another live mouse, the rate of killing declines within 1- and 3-hr sessions. Muricide could not then be dishabituated by either a “nonspecific” stimulus (a loud noise) or a specific change in target characteristics (a frog substituted for the mouse). By systematically varying intersession intervals, we found that 1 hr of ad lib killing produced a monotonically decreasing suppression of muricide over the succeeding 96 hr. Subjects performed an interesting kind of forward didng which was influenced by both dishabituating stimuli and killing; this may be a form of die placement behavior.