风险决策的概率权重偏差：心理机制与优化策略

概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。“重结果轻概率”的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差; 改变“概率”的描述形式、“结果”的情绪体验、“损益”的参照点、风险的心理距离等可调整权重偏差、优化决策。未来需深究权重偏差的适用情境、机制关联及偏差辨别等问题。     

小概率事件对因果关系认知的影响

1　引言　　心理学对因果关系的认知和迷信行为有过不少研究。人类的天性之一 ,就是当一件事情发生以后 ,都会有意无意的去寻找导致事情发生的原因 ,即归因。心理学一般将归因看成是一种决策过程 ;而对一种结果 ,往往有多种可能的候选因素存在 ,到底哪一种因素是造成该结果的原因 ,这就需要通过比较、推断 ,最后做出决策。归因出错就是产生了错误的因果关系认知。迷信就是因果关系的错误认知的一个典型例证 ,它在结果与原因之间建立了错误的关联 ,形成了错误的因果认知。在心理学历史上对于错误的因果认知以及迷信的一个经典的研究就是行为…     

用文字概率衡量不确定性：特征和问题

文字概率是衡量不确定性的方式之一, 即人们使用诸如“也许”、“未必”的词汇来描述特定事件发生的可能性。文字概率不同于数字概率, 主要体现在文字概率的模糊性、非概率运算性和语义特性上。这使得相对于数字概率, 用文字概率衡量不确定性既有优势也有问题, 进而对人们的不确定信息沟通和风险决策造成影响。虽然文字概率与数字概率存在特征上的差异并且人们在日常交流中偏爱文字概率, 但是大部分风险领域的研究却仅局限于数字概率, 今后有必要研究使用文字概率测量的风险决策。在已有文字概率特征研究的基础上, 还可以进一步探究其不同于数字概率的其它特征(文字/数字概率与双系统模型的联系、文字概率的跨文化差异等)及其对风险决策的影响。     

二级项目题组混合IRT模型及其稳健权重估计

在心理测量和教育测量中,二级项目和题组项目是两类常见的项目类型。由这两种项目混合构成的测试在实践中有着重要的应用。被试在答题时,由于个人的潜在能力和项目难度不匹配,常常会产生异常反应,这些异常反应会影响IRT中潜在特质估计的准确性。仿真实验证明,二级项目题组混合IRT模型的稳健估计方法在出现异常值的情况下,能够比极大似然估计对被试的潜在特质做出更加准确的估计,能够满足实际测试的需求。     

动机的概率意义——概率归并定理与Monty Hall问题的非贝叶斯解

本文探讨Monty Hall问题认知困惑的形成因素。通过对该问题数学结构的分析,导出一个与该问题的解密切相关的定理——概率归并定理;并依据该定理给出了Monty Hall问题的一种更直观的数学解。     

不确定性容忍度、损益概率及延迟风险对延迟选择的影响

研究通过两个实验考查了不确定性容忍度及相关变量对延迟选择的影响,其中实验1采用2（不确定性容忍度：高/低）×2（概率水平：高/中）被试间实验设计;研究2将实验任务设定在有延迟风险情景下中等概率水平,采用单因素（不确定性容忍度：高/低）被试间实验设计.实验1结果表明：不确定性容忍度与概率水平存在交互作用：中等概率时,低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体更偏好延迟选择,高概率时,两者的延迟选择无显著差异,都偏好于选择决策.实验2结果表明：在有延迟风险中等概率时,高、低容忍度个体的决策偏好无显著差异,都偏好选择决策.结论：不确定性容忍度对延迟选择存在影响且受概率水平和延迟风险的调节.     

单个概率事件形式表述的MHD问题新质疑

以单个概率事件形式表述的“超级思维黑洞”MHD问题的学术价值在文章中遭到具体的质疑.文章首先介绍了Baumann基于一个以单个概率事件形式表述的“两嘉宾一轿车”版本的MHD问题对上述问题所展开的讨论、所引起的争论及其探讨所存在的缺陷;然后重点阐述了笔者以MHD问题中嘉宾最后选择策略的意义为基点所展开的新质疑.根据笔者的推导,在单个概率事件形式表述的MHD问题中将得出一个极端荒谬的结论:嘉宾获车的概率决定于嘉宾的主观意念.这一结论的出现显示出该形式的MHD问题应该遭受质疑.     

概率估计的趋势效应及其对决策的影响机制——基于心理动量的视角

概率是反映风险与不确定性的重要指标, 概率估计具有趋势效应, 会对决策产生影响。文章描述了概率估计趋势效应的两种表现形式, 概率估计变化的趋势性(即不同时间点概率估计变化产生的趋势作用)与单边概率估计的趋势性(即高于或低于某个概率区间范畴的上界或下界的估计表述所产生的趋势作用), 揭示了概率估计趋势效应对于个体判断、决策行为和非理性决策偏差的影响; 基于心理动量的理论视角提出了一个整合模型, 阐述了概率估计趋势效应催生心理动量体验继而引发后续决策行为的内在机理。未来的研究可进一步关注：多方信息来源主体下概率估计的趋势效应; 动态趋势效应与静态概率估计的交互作用; 风险沟通中的概率估计变化趋势。     

四卡问题解决中的内容与逻辑分析效应

选取条件概率(P(Q|P))由低到高的四个命题作为四卡问题中的检验规则,探讨了大学生被试对四张卡片的逻辑证明作用的推断能力及其对解决四卡问题的影响。结果发现:(1)不同条件概率的命题之间正确选择P-Q的人数百分比不存在显著差异,命题的条件概率因素对四卡问题的正确解决没有影响。(2)逻辑分析过程对四卡问题的正确解决产生了一定的抑制作用,这可能是因为被试不能从整体上思考四张卡片在命题检验中的逻辑作用的缘故。(3)一些被试即使在逻辑分析过程中表现出知道-Q卡片的证伪作用,仍然倾向于选择卡片Q而非-Q,这一现象再次证实了人类思维的非形式逻辑的一面。     

油画创作中的小稿及其重要性

在整个油画创作过程中,小稿具有很重要的地位。正视小稿的重要性并学会绘制小稿是非常重要的。我们应重视"小构图""小素描稿""小色稿"的应用,它不仅可以使我们在正稿绘制时少走弯路,而且能提高我们的构图能力、组织画面的能力,并且培养我们正确的观察方式,同时还能迅速地把开始的设想和感受快速地呈现在小稿上。小稿不仅对我们后期创作具有很大的帮助,其本身也具有较高的艺术价值。     

How Affect Shapes Risky Choice: Distorted Probability Weighting Versus Probability Neglect

People's choices between prospects with relatively affect‐rich outcomes (e.g., medical side effects) can diverge markedly from their choices between prospects with relatively affect‐poor outcomes (e.g., monetary losses). We investigate the cognitive mechanisms underlying this “affect gap” in risky choice. One possibility is that affect‐rich prospects give rise to more distortion in probability weighting. Another is that they lead to the neglect of probabilities. To pit these two possibilities against each other, we fitted cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to the choices of individual participants, separately for choices between options with affect‐rich outcomes (adverse medical side effects) and options with affect‐poor outcomes (monetary losses); additionally, we tested a simple model of probability neglect, the minimax rule. The results indicated a qualitative difference in cognitive mechanisms between the affect‐rich and affect‐poor problems. Specifically, in affect‐poor problems, the large majority of participants were best described by CPT; in affect‐rich problems, the proportion of participants best described by the minimax rule was substantially higher. The affect gap persisted even when affect‐rich outcomes were supplemented by numerical information, thus providing no support for the thesis that choices in affect‐rich and affect‐poor problems diverge because the information provided in the former is nonnumerical. Our findings suggest that the traditional expectation‐based framework for modeling risky decision making may not readily generalize to affect‐rich choices. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kaufmann on the Probabilities of Conditionals

Kaufmann has recently argued that the thesis according to which the probability of an indicative conditional equals the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent under certain specifiable circumstances deviates from intuition. He presents a method for calculating the probability of a conditional that does seem to give the intuitively correct result under those circumstances. However, the present paper shows that Kaufmann’s method is inconsistent in that it may lead one to assign different probabilities to a single conditional at the same time.     

Semantic Coherence and Inconsistency in Estimating Conditional Probabilities

Two studies examined semantic coherence and internal inconsistency fallacies in conditional probability estimation. Problems reflected five distinct relationships between two sets: identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, subsets, overlapping sets, and independent sets (a special case of overlapping sets). Participants estimated P(A), P(B), P(A|B), and P(B|A). Inconsistency occurs when this constellation of estimates does not conform to Bayes' theorem. Semantic coherence occurs when this constellation of estimates is consistent with the depicted relationship among sets. Fuzzy‐trace theory predicts that people have difficulty with overlapping sets and subsets because they require class‐inclusion reasoning. On these problems, people are vulnerable to denominator neglect, the tendency to ignore relevant denominators, making the gist more difficult to discern. Independent sets are simplified by the gist understanding that P(A) provides no information about P(B), and thus, P(A|B) = P(A). The gist for identical sets is that P(A|B) = 1.0, and the gist of mutually exclusive sets is that P(A|B) = 0. In Study 1, identical, mutually exclusive, and independent sets yielded superior performance (in internal inconsistency and semantic coherence) than subsets and overlapping sets. For subsets and overlapping sets, interventions clarifying appropriate denominators generally improved semantic coherence and inconsistency, including teaching people to use Euler diagrams, 2 × 2 tables, or relative frequencies. In Study 2, with problems about breast cancer and BRCA mutations, there was a strong correlation between inconsistency in conditional probability estimation and conjunction fallacies of joint probability estimation, suggesting that similar fallacious reasoning processes produce these errors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bets and Boundaries: Assigning Probabilities to Imprecisely Specified Events

Uncertainty and vagueness/imprecision are not the same: one can be certain about events described using vague predicates and about imprecisely specified events, just as one can be uncertain about precisely specified events. Exactly because of this, a question arises about how one ought to assign probabilities to imprecisely specified events in the case when no possible available evidence will eradicate the imprecision (because, say, of the limits of accuracy of a measuring device). Modelling imprecision by rough sets over an approximation space presents an especially tractable case to help get one’s bearings. Two solutions present themselves: the first takes as upper and lower probabilities of the event X the (exact) probabilities assigned X’s upper and lower rough-set approximations; the second, motivated both by formal considerations and by a simple betting argument, is to treat X’s rough-set approximation as a conditional event and assign to it a point-valued (conditional) probability. With rough sets over an approximation space we get a lot of good behaviour. For example, in the first construction mentioned the lower probabilities are n-monotone, for every . When we examine other models of approximation/imprecision/vagueness, and in particular, proximity spaces, we lose a lot of that good behaviour. In the literature there is not (even) agreement on the definition of upper and lower approximations for events (subsets) in the underlying domain. Betting considerations suggest one choice and, again, ways to assign upper and lower and point-valued probabilities, but nothing works well. Special Issue on Vagueness Edited by Rosanna Keefe and Libor Bêhounek     

网络心理咨询的实践及其存在的问题

目前的网络心理咨询并不能算是严格意义上的心理咨询,因为除了从业人员的资格及其服务质量值得探讨之外,技术困难所导致的非言语交流的缺乏也使它与传统意义上的心理咨询有一定差异。文章根据网络心理咨询发展的特殊性,从服务人员、工具、治疗关系、服务类型和目标等维度,界定出目前网络心理咨询的基本含义,并在此基础上概览了网络心理咨询的实践状况,分析了当前网络心理咨询实践领域中存在的保密性、资格许可、伦理、不完整信息、来访者转介等主要问题     

The Effect of Temporal Distance on Attitudes toward Imprecise Probabilities and Imprecise Outcomes

Many personal, managerial, and societal decisions involve uncertain or ambiguous consequences that will occur in the future. Yet, previous empirical research on ambiguity preferences has focused mainly on decisions with immediate outcomes. To close this gap in the literature, this paper examines ambiguity attitudes toward future prospects, particularly how they may differ from the attitudes toward comparable prospects in the present. On the basis of a recent paradigm, we first distinguish between two types of ambiguity: imprecise probabilities and imprecise outcomes. Then, in accordance with construal level theory, which shows that temporal distance increases the relative importance of outcomes over probabilities in evaluating prospects, we conjecture that temporal distance would moderate attitudes toward imprecise probabilities but amplify attitudes toward imprecise outcomes. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that when the prospects are in the future, individuals are less averse toward imprecise probabilities and more seeking toward imprecise outcomes. However, the effect is most prominent for prospects where both the probability and outcome dimensions are concurrently imprecise. The paper ends with a discussion on how dimension salience may have contributed to this result. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

因果与权重：决策的眼动模型

结合眼动注视的漂移扩散模型可较好描述个体的决策行为,但尚存两个问题未得解决：注视与决策的因果关系以及决策过程中累积证据的权重问题。本研究采用基于注视的操纵范式考察了基于价值的决策中注视与决策的关系,发现操纵被试对选项的注视时间可影响其选择,注视操纵主要影响决策后期时程,且模型参数估计结果更支持近因模型。研究结果支持了漂移扩散模型的近因假设,为今后的模型发展指明了新方向。     

Linda versus World Cup: Conjunctive Probabilities in Three-event Fictional and Real-life Predictions

Conjunction errors in probability judgments have been explained in terms of representatives, non-normative combination procedures, and linguistic, conversational, or conceptual misunderstandings. In two studies, a three-event variant of the classical Linda scenario (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983) was contrasted with estimates of Norway’s chances in three coming World Cup soccer matches. Conjunction errors occurred even in the latter, real-life prediction task, but much less frequently than in the fictional Linda case. Magnitude of the conjunction effect was found to be dependent upon type of constituent (fictional versus dispositional), unequal versus equal probabilities of constituent events, prediction of positive versus negative outcomes, and, for real-life predictions only, umber of constitutent events. Fictional probability ratings were close to but lower than representativenss ratings, giving evidence for a representativeness and adjustment-for-uncertainty strategy, whereas probabilities of real-life events were given a causal model interpretation.     

大小数量加工机制分离现象的ERP研究

大量行为研究表明,个体对4以上非符号数量的加工存在加工机制分离现象,但是相关的神经机制研究还很少。本研究选取21名大学生被试,结合ERP技术和数量判断任务,以数量比率效应为指标,比较4以上不同大小数量加工的神经反应模式。结果显示,大小数量加工条件下数量比率效应对P2p成分幅值的调节模式存在显著差异。这支持了小数量加工基于数量属性,大数量加工基于非数量属性的观点。