Drinking patterns and drunk-driving behaviour in Catalonia,Spain: A comparative study

This study explores three alcohol-related databases so as to provide a comprehensive understanding of drinking patterns and the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving in Catalonia (Spain). The rate of alcohol-impaired drivers is compared with the percentage of drinkers in this population, with a particular focus on heavy episodic drinkers. Two strategies adopted by law enforcement agents when conducting alcohol breath tests are examined: (i) non-random and (ii) random approaches to roadblock location and driver selection. We find that heavy drinker profiles (in terms of age and gender) closely match those of alcohol-impaired drivers detected at strategically located, non-random sobriety checkpoints (especially in the case of female drivers), and that they also correlate with the age-gender distribution of drivers involved in road accidents with victims. Different drink driving patterns are detected when sobriety checkpoints are located randomly and drivers are tested at random. Older drivers are identified as a risk group as they abandon the safer driving habits in relation to alcohol shown when they were middle-aged. A combination of non-random and random controls would increase driver perception of their chances of being detected when drink driving. As such, the whole population, regardless of their drinking profile, would be alerted to the serious personal, social and legal implications of alcohol-impaired driving.     

Aesthetic appreciation of experiments: The case of 18th-century mimetic experiments

This article analyzes a type of experiment, very popular in 18th-century natural philosophy, which has apparently not led to insights into nature but which was aesthetically especially attractive. These experiments--"mimetic experiments"--allow us to trace a connection between aesthetic appreciation in science and in art contemporaneous with the science. I use this case as a problem for McAllister's theory of aesthetic induction according to which aesthetic standards in science tend to be associated with empirical success and propose an alternative mechanism that is able to account for the natural philosophers' predilection for unsuccessful but beautiful experiments.     

How surprising is a simple pattern? Quantifying "Eureka!"

Simple patterns are compelling. When all the observed facts fit into a simple theory or "story," we are intuitively convinced that the pattern must be real rather than random. But how surprising is a simple pattern, really? That is, given a pattern of featural data, such as the properties of a set of objects, how unlikely would the pattern be if they were actually generated at random? In conventional statistics dealing with patterns of numbers, this type of question would be answered by reference to a null distribution such as the t distribution. This paper gives the analogous answer in the realm of concept learning, that is, the formation of generalizations from patterns of featural data. Using a formal but psychologically valid definition of complexity, I derive and exhibit the distribution of subjective complexity under the hypothesis of no pattern. This leads directly to a number of applications, including a statistical test indicating whether an observed pattern is sufficiently simple that it is not likely to have been an accident: literally, the "significance of simplicity."     

Recognition in a visuospatial memory task: The effect of presentation

The influence of the mode of presentation (simultaneous vs. sequential) on accuracy and latency of visuospatial recognition was explored in three experiments. In Experiment 1, two groups were administered a visuospatial task in which a number of positions were shown either simultaneously or sequentially (in a random order); memory was tested using a recognition procedure of visuospatial patterns, either identical or different (a single cell displaced). The results showed that (1) performance was higher in the simultaneous than in the sequential presentation, and (2) decision time increased with complexity in the sequential presentation but not in the simultaneous presentation. In Experiment 2, the same task was used in three conditions of presentation, simultaneous, random sequential, and ordered sequential; at test, a single location, rather than a pattern, was presented for recognition. The results showed that (1) performance was higher in the simultaneous and in the ordered sequential presentations than in the random sequential one, and (2) decision time increased with complexity. In Experiment 3, the same task was used in the same three conditions of presentation, simultaneous, random sequential, and ordered sequential; at test either an identical or a “displaced” pattern was presented for recognition. The results showed that (1) performance was equivalent in the three types of presentation, and (2) decision time increased with complexity for “hit” items; different patterns of linear relations were observed for “correct rejections” items. The results are interpreted in terms of the organisation of visuospatial working memory, and three types of encoding—extrafigural spatial encoding, visual pattern encoding, and spatial path encoding—were proposed.     

What is magic about the magical number four?

Summary Previous studies have shown that the apprehension of number can be represented by three models according to the experimental procedure and the data analysis. The present experiment was designed to test the effect of figural characteristics of pattern on the response time. The subjects were asked to perform a same/different judgment, i.e., they were requested to decide whether a dot pattern, shown on a monitor, equalled a previously defined target number (n=2–6) or not. Different types of pattern were used and learning effects were studied. As was expected, the slopes for random and linear patterns were not so steep when the target number was low. With patterns in the dice mode, however, the slope was zero. Repeated presentations led to a slight reduction in slope for random and linear patterns only. In the case of the patterns in the dice mode, the repeated presentations caused only a change in the absolute reaction times (RTs) but had no effect on the slope. When the target numbers were larger (n=5–6), the repeated presentations led to remarkable reductions in slope for random and linear patterns. The slope discontinuity at n=4 occurred with all types of pattern but it became less pronounced in the course of training at least in the case of random and linear patterns. This result is explained by clustering effects, use of figural cues, and a more efficient scanning process.     

Cues for self-recognition in point-light displays of actions performed in synchrony with music

Self–other discrimination was investigated with point-light displays in which actions were presented with or without additional auditory information. Participants first executed different actions (dancing, walking and clapping) in time with music. In two subsequent experiments, they watched point-light displays of their own or another participant’s recorded actions, and were asked to identify the agent (self vs. other). Manipulations were applied to the visual information (actions differing in complexity, and degradation from 15 to 2 point-lights within the same clapping action) and to the auditory information (self-generated vs. externally-generated vs. none). Results indicate that self-recognition was better than chance in all conditions and was highest when observing relatively unconstrained patterns of movement. Auditory information did not increase accuracy even with the most ambiguous visual displays, suggesting that judgments of agent identity depend much more on motor cues than on auditory (action-generated) or audiovisual (synchronization) information.     

Perception of randomness: On the time of streaks

People tend to think that streaks in random sequential events are rare and remarkable. When they actually encounter streaks, they tend to consider the underlying process as non-random. The present paper examines the time of pattern occurrences in sequences of Bernoulli trials, and shows that among all patterns of the same length, a streak is the most delayed pattern for its first occurrence. It is argued that when time is of essence, how often a pattern is to occur (mean time, or, frequency) and when a pattern is to first occur (waiting time) are different questions and bear different psychological relevance. The waiting time statistics may provide a quantitative measure to the psychological distance when people are expecting a probabilistic event, and such measure is consistent with both of the representativeness and availability heuristics in people’s perception of randomness. We discuss some of the recent empirical findings and suggest that people’s judgment and generation of random sequences may be guided by their actual experiences of the waiting time statistics.     

Perception of randomness: On the time of streaks

People tend to think that streaks in random sequential events are rare and remarkable. When they actually encounter streaks, they tend to consider the underlying process as non-random. The present paper examines the time of pattern occurrences in sequences of Bernoulli trials, and shows that among all patterns of the same length, a streak is the most delayed pattern for its first occurrence. It is argued that when time is of essence, how often a pattern is to occur (mean time, or, frequency) and when a pattern is to first occur (waiting time) are different questions and bear different psychological relevance. The waiting time statistics may provide a quantitative measure to the psychological distance when people are expecting a probabilistic event, and such measure is consistent with both of the representativeness and availability heuristics in people’s perception of randomness. We discuss some of the recent empirical findings and suggest that people’s judgment and generation of random sequences may be guided by their actual experiences of the waiting time statistics.     

Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events

When students are asked to predict the outcome of a random event, where all alternatives are equally probable (lotteries), they tend to choose central, "representative" values, and avoid extreme ones. In ten informal experiments, it is shown how this pattern of choices is influenced by various procedural and structural changes in the basic task. The results show that guessing behavior can be described as a kind of absolute judgment, subject to grouping, anchoring and context effects. Of the two general prediction heuristics originally proposed by Kahneman & Tversky (1973), "representativeness" applies better than "availability". In fact, a major strategy of guessing is apparently to eschew numbers with prominent, "non-random" properties, which at the same time are highly available to the subjects.     

Agrammatic Broca's aphasia is not associated with a single pattern of comprehension performance

One influential hypothesis posits that the brain regions implicated in Broca's aphasia are responsible for specific syntactic operations that are necessary for the comprehension and production of sentences (Grodzinsky, 1986, 1990, in press). The empirical basis of this hypothesis is the claim that Broca's aphasics have no difficulty understanding sentences in the active voice (and other "canonical" sentence types, such as subject relatives and clefts with negative predicates), but perform at chance level with passive voice constructions (and other "noncanonical" sentences such as object-gap relatives and object clefts). In the face of well-established results indicating that Broca's aphasics can exhibit several different performance patterns on these sentence types, Grodzinsky, Pi?ango, Zurif, and Drai (1999) argued that these conflicting results do not challenge the theory when the data are analyzed appropriately. They carried out a creative statistical analysis of the comprehension performance of published cases of Broca's aphasia and concluded that all of these cases are in agreement with the predicted pattern: chance on passives and 100% correct on actives. Here we show that the statistical reasoning adopted by Grodzinsky et al. (1999) is flawed. We also show that the comprehension performance of a substantial number of the Broca's aphasics in their own sample does not conform to the pattern required. Rather, contrary to these authors' claim, Broca's aphasia is not associated with a consistent pattern of sentence comprehension performance, but allows for a number of distinct patterns in different patients.     

Cognition in action: testing a model of limb apraxia

Assessment of limb apraxia is still suffering from Liepmann's legacy and performance in gesture-processing tests is generally rendered by classifying patients' profile according to the classic clinical labels of ideomotor and ideational apraxia. At odds with other cognitive functions, interpretation of apraxia has suffered from a lack of a reliable model which does justice to its complexity. Recently such a model has been proposed (Rothi et al., 1991, 1997). In this article a modified version of this model is presented and predictions are made according to its functional architecture. Five different patterns of impairment of gesture processing are postulated. To validate the predicted performance profiles, 19 left-hemisphere-damaged patients were assessed by means of an ad hoc battery of four praxis tests. Four of the five predicted apraxia patterns were observed, the fifth being more equivocal. These results support the need to overcome the simplistic dichotomous view of apraxia and confirm the fruitfulness of a model of normal gesture processing in order to understand dissociations in apraxia.     

No-loss gambling shows the speed of the unconscious

This paper investigates the time it takes unconscious vs. conscious knowledge to form by using an improved "no-loss gambling" method to measure awareness of knowing. Subjects could either bet on a transparently random process or on their grammaticality judgment in an artificial grammar learning task. A conflict in the literature is resolved concerning whether unconscious rather than conscious knowledge is especially fast or slow to form. When guessing (betting on a random process), accuracy was above chance and RTs were longer than when feeling confident (betting on the grammaticality decision). In a second experiment, short response deadlines only interfered with the quality of confident decisions (betting on grammaticality). When people are unaware of their knowledge, externally enforced decisions can be made rapidly with little decline in quality; but if given ample time, they await a metacognitive process to complete. The dissociation validates no-loss gambling as a measure of conscious awareness.     

Evaluating the importance of the convex hull in solving the Euclidean version of the traveling salesperson problem: reply to Lee and Vickers (2000)

Lee and Vickers (2000) suggest that the results of MacGregor and Ormerod (1996), showing that the response uncertainty to traveling salesperson problems (TSPs) increases with increasing numbers of nonboundary points, may have resulted as an artifact of constraints imposed in the construction of stimuli. The fact that similar patterns of results have been obtained for our "constrained" stimuli, for a stimulus constructed under different constraints, for 13 randomly generated stimuli, and for random and patterned 48-point problems provides empirical evidence that the results are not artifactual. Lee and Vickers further suggest that, even if not artifactual, the results are in principle limited to arrays of fewer than 50 points and that, beyond this, the total number of points and number of nonboundary points are "diagnostically equivalent." This claim seems to us incorrect, since arrays of any size can be constructed that will permit experimental tests of whether problem difficulty is influenced by the number of nonboundary points, or the total number of points, or both. We present a reanalysis of our original data using hierarchical regression analysis which indicates that both factors may influence problem complexity.     

The development of mental models for auditory events: Relational complexity and discrimination of pitch and duration

This experiment investigated relational complexity and relational shift in judgments of auditory patterns. Pitch and duration values were used to construct two‐note perceptually similar sequences (unary relations) and four‐note relationally similar sequences (binary relations). It was hypothesized that 5‐, 8‐ and 11‐year‐old children would perform unary level pitch and duration discrimination tasks accurately. Relational shift predicted a poorer performance of the younger age groups on binary relation tasks; relational primacy predicted no effect of age. Accuracy was operationalized as a discrimination index (DI: hit rate minus false alarm rate). Results supported relational shift: DI for all age groups exceeded chance on unary and binary relation tasks, with significantly poorer performance by all age groups on binary relation tasks. The 5‐years age group showed evidence of perceptual similarity. Relational complexity of auditory dimensions and tasks, and manipulation of domain specific musical knowledge in evaluating theories of relational processing, are discussed.     

Auditory change detection: simple sounds are not memorized better than complex sounds

Previous research has shown that the detectability of a local change in a visual image is essentially independent of the complexity of the image when the interstimulus interval (ISI) is very short, but is limited by a low-capacity memory system when the ISI exceeds 100 ms. In the study reported here, listeners made same/different judgments on pairs of successive "chords" (sums of pure tones with random frequencies). The change to be detected was always a frequency shift in one of the tones, and which tone would change was unpredictable. Performance worsened as the number of tones increased, but this effect was not larger for 2-s ISIs than for 0-ms ISIs. Similar results were obtained when a chord was followed by a single tone that had to be judged as higher or lower than the closest component of the chord. Overall, our data suggest that change detection is based on different mechanisms in audition and vision.     

A quantitative approach to the study of visual symmetry

An experiment was conducted to explore the quantitative relationship between "goodness" and the amount of symmetry in visual designs. Subjects arranged items in one, two, and three dimensions in an aesthetically pleasing manner. Each design was analyzed to determine its amount of symmetry, and the percent of subjects who created designs having each possible degree of asymmetry was calculated. Perfect symmetry was the most common condition for all three dimensions. Moreover, the goodness of patterns was inversely related to the quantitative degree of asymmetry.     

Complexity and goodness of dot patterns varying in symmetry

Summary Two experiments were performed to specify stimulus determinants of pattern complexity and pattern goodness. Dot patterns distributed in 3×3 and 4×4 matrices with a rectilinear frame were used in Experiment 1, and dot patterns in hexagonal frameworks with a circular frame were used in Experiment 2. The patterns were invariant for transformations of rotation or reflection, and formed symmetry groups of different orders, i.e., cyclic and dihedral groups. The complexity and goodness of the patterns depended upon such stimulus variables as follows: (1) complexity decreased with the order of symmetry groups with equal weights for cyclic and dihedral groups, whereas goodness increased with the order of both symmetry groups with different weights; (2) the simplicity and goodness of patterns with a vertical axis were greater than those with a horizontal axis and those with an oblique one; (3) the complexity of the patterns that had collinear elements with equal length was rated the simplest; (4) pattern goodness increased as a function of the number of dots and the concentrations of dot to rotation/reflection axis in 3×3 and 4 × 4 matrices. Thus, complexity and goodness of pattern differed with respect to these stimulus variables.     

Sex similarities and differences in preferences for short-term mates: what, whether, and why

Are there sex differences in criteria for sexual relationships? The answer depends on what question a researcher asks. Data suggest that, whereas the sexes differ in whether they will enter short-term sexual relationships, they are more similar in what they prioritize in partners for such relationships. However, additional data and context of other findings and theory suggest different underlying reasons. In Studies 1 and 2, men and women were given varying "mate budgets" to design short-term mates and were asked whether they would actually mate with constructed partners. Study 3 used a mate-screening paradigm. Whereas women have been found to prioritize status in long-term mates, they instead (like men) prioritize physical attractiveness much like an economic necessity in short-term mates. Both sexes also show evidence of favoring well-rounded long- and short-term mates when given the chance. In Studies 4 and 5, participants report reasons for having casual sex and what they find physically attractive. For women, results generally support a good genes account of short-term mating, as per strategic pluralism theory (S. W. Gangestad & J. A. Simpson, 2000). Discussion addresses broader theoretical implications for mate preference, and the link between method and theory in examining social decision processes.     

Ästhetische Befriedigung und Unbestimmtheitsreduktion

Zusammenfassung Vpn mußten unter standardisierten Bedingungen zweidimensionale Farbmuster herstellen, die ihrer Meinung nach ästhetisch maximal befriedigend, bzw. maximal unbefriedigend waren. Die beiden Gruppen von Bildern wurden untersucht, wobei sich eine Gruppe von ästhetisch befriedigenden und zwei Gruppen von ästhetisch unbefriedigenden Bildern zeigten. Eine weitere Analyse ergab, daß sich die ästhetisch befriedigenden Bilder von den ästhetisch unbefriedigenden statistisch darin unterscheiden, daß bei den ästhetisch befriedigenden Bildern die Farbelemente in hohem Maße zum Aufbau komplizierter und tiefer Hierarchien von Zeichen höherer Ordnung verwendet wurden, wohingegen bei den ästhetisch unbefriedigenden Mustern übergeordnete Konfigurationen entweder nur in einfacher Form und flachen Hierarchien auftreten (1. Gruppe) oder Zeichen höherer Ordnung gar nicht vorhanden sind (2. Gruppe). Aufgrund der empirischen Ergebnisse wird die Hypothese aufgestellt, daß ästhetische Befriedigung auf Unbestimmtheitsreduktion gegen Widerstand zurückgeführt werden kann. In einem nachfolgenden Experiment wurde diese Hypothese geprüft und bestätigt.

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Aesthetical appreciation and the reduction of uncertainty

Summary Subjects were asked to construct colored pictures which they considered to be aesthetically maximally pleasing or unpleasing. These two groups of pictures were analyzed and it was found that the aesthetically pleasing pictures showed a statistically significant increase in the number of higher order configurations of color elements and a greater hierarchical organization of such configurations. Furthermore, the higher order configurations of the aesthetically pleasing pictures were of a more complicated structure than the higher order configurations of the aesthetically unpleasing pictures. Considering these results, the hypothesis was raised that aesthetical appreciation may be based on the reduction of uncertainty against the resistance of a complicated system of ordering relations within a stimulus. This hypothesis was tested and verified in a subsequent experiment.

     

Missing Data Mechanisms and Homogeneity of Means and Variances–Covariances

Unless data are missing completely at random (MCAR), proper methodology is crucial for the analysis of incomplete data. Consequently, methods for effectively testing the MCAR mechanism become important, and procedures were developed via testing the homogeneity of means and variances–covariances across the observed patterns (e.g., Kim & Bentler in Psychometrika 67:609–624, 2002; Little in J Am Stat Assoc 83:1198–1202, 1988). The current article shows that the population counterparts of the sample means and covariances of a given pattern of the observed data depend on the underlying structure that generates the data, and the normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood estimates for different patterns of the observed sample can converge to the same values even when data are missing at random or missing not at random, although the values may not equal those of the underlying population distribution. The results imply that statistics developed for testing the homogeneity of means and covariances cannot be safely used for testing the MCAR mechanism even when the population distribution is multivariate normal.