De‐reifying risk

Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management, by the Royal Society Study Group, London: Royal Society, 1992, 201 pages, pb £15.50

Social Theories of Risk, edited by Sheldon Krimsky and Dominic Golding, London/NY: Praeger, 1992, 412 pages, hb £48.50, pb £18.50

Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, by Ulrich Beck, London: Sage, 1992, 260 pages, hb £35.00, pb £13.00     

How much risk can you stomach? Individual differences in the tolerance of perceived risk across gender and risk domain

Research within the psychological risk–return framework, namely, using the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking scale, has led to a conclusion that risk attitude—measured as an individual's sensitivity to the risk they perceive—is stable across people (e.g., gender) and domains (e.g., recreational, social, financial, & health). Risk taking differences across gender and domain have been interpreted in terms of differences in the magnitude of risk perceived (and expected benefit). Yet the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking scale items, contrived by researchers rather than decision makers themselves, may have failed to detect differences in perceived risk attitude by failing to adequately represent all combinations of risks and benefits across gender and domains. In Study 1, participants generated their own examples of activities, which we selected among in Studies 2 and 3 to construct a new scale representing various levels of perceived risk and expected benefit. Our findings reveal that women are more sensitive than men to risk they perceive (i.e., are less tolerant of risk) in the recreational, social, and financial domains but not in the health domain. Risk attitude also differed across domains, with participants tolerating more risk in some domains than in others. We conclude that gender and domain differences in risk taking stem partly from gender and domain differences in people's sensitivity to perceived risks. Our findings have theoretical implications for the psychological risk–return framework and bridge with other theoretical approaches, such as the expected utility framework. Our studies also provide a new scale for assessing differences in attitudes toward risk that overcomes shortcomings of existing scales.     

Atkinson's “risk preference” model

Several revisions of Atkinson's risk preference model have been proposed in the last 10 years. The advantage of such revisions, shifting the maximum of the approach tendency to the difficult range in predicting choice behavior, is discussed. After summarizing the results of a series of studies on choice behavior in achievement-related situations, the conclusion is drawn that such a revision is unnecessary. Choice behavior is in agreement with the prediction of the original model when expectancies are assessed in the proper way. There may be other good reasons to revise Atkinson's original model. However, the tendency to choose difficulty levels with objective success probabilities less than .50 is not a reason.     

Testing Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis with psychopathic individuals: risk takers or risk averse?

Damasio and colleagues (A. R. Damasio, 1994; A. R. Damasio, D. Tranel, & H. Damasio, 1990) have theorized about a possible relationship between somatic markers and the behavior of psychopathic individuals (Ps), but, to date, there are no published data regarding the proposed relationship. The authors assessed 86 Caucasian and 71 African American male offenders using R. D. Hare's (1991) Psychopathy Checklist--Revised and used a modified version of Bechara and colleagues' (A. Bechara, A. R. Damasio, H. Damasio, & S. W. Anderson, 1994; A. Bechara, H. Damasio, D. Tranel, & A. R. Damasio, 1997) gambling task to test the hypothesis that Ps would, consistent with the somatic marker hypothesis, fail to become risk averse. Results indicated that level of anxiety, but not psychopathy, was predictive of response choices. Several limitations and implications of the study are noted.     

When do peers influence adolescent males' risk taking? Examining decision making under conditions of risk and ambiguity

Risk taking is highly prevalent among adolescent males, and a range of studies have shown that decisions become riskier if a peer is present. However, previous studies have typically provided participants with explicit probabilities of risk in each situation. This does not accurately reflect adolescents' real‐world risk taking, where decisions are made in ambiguous situations alongside their peers. Aiming for a more ecologically valid design, the present experiment manipulated situational ambiguity and examined its interplay with group decision making and developmental factors. Adolescent males (N = 202) aged 12–15 completed a “Wheel of Fortune” task and then self‐reported their score, presenting an opportunity to cheat as a measure of antisocial risk taking. As predicted, adolescents were more likely to take risks when probabilities were ambiguous rather than explicit. Further, higher levels of gambling choices were made by groups in ambiguous, but not risk situations. Age significantly predicted gambling in ambiguous conditions, whereas developmental dispositions (risk perception, reward sensitivity, and inhibitory control) did not play a role. Findings provide an insight into the social and situational conditions under which adolescent males engage in reckless behavior.     

How do personality disorders modify suicide risk?

There is a lack of psychological autopsy studies assessing the influence of axis II disorders on other risk factors for suicide. Therefore, we investigated if the estimated suicide risk for axis I disorders and socio-demographic factors was modified by personality disorders. Psychiatric disorders were evaluated by a semi-structured interview including the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I (SCID-I) and Personality Disorders (SCID-II) by psychological autopsy method in 163 completed suicides and by personal interview in 396 population-based control persons. Personality disorders modify suicide risk, differently for affective disorders, substance use disorders, smoking, life events during the last three months, and socio-demographic factors such as being single. Estimated suicide risk for socio-demographic factors and life events is not substantially altered following adjustment for affective disorders or substance use disorders. These findings suggest that treatment of personality disorders is essential for suicide prevention.     

Does anticipation training affect drivers' risk taking?

Skill and risk taking are argued to be independent and to require different remedial programs. However, it is possible to contend that skill-based training could be associated with an increase, a decrease, or no change in risk-taking behavior. In 3 experiments, the authors examined the influence of a skill-based training program (hazard perception) on the risk-taking behavior of car drivers (using video-based driving simulations). Experiment 1 demonstrated a decrease in risk taking for novice drivers. In Experiment 2, the authors examined the possibilities that the skills training might operate through either a nonspecific reduction in risk taking or a specific improvement in hazard perception. Evidence supported the latter. These findings were replicated in a more ecological context in Experiment 3, which compared advanced and nonadvanced police drivers.     

Why are hispanics at greater risk for PTSD?

Several studies have found that Hispanic Americans have higher rates of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) than non-Hispanic Caucasian and Black Americans. The authors identified predictors of PTSD symptom severity that distinguished Hispanic police officers (n=189) from their non-Hispanic Caucasian (n=317) and Black (n=162) counterparts and modeled them to explain the elevated Hispanic risk for PTSD. The authors found that greater peritraumatic dissociation, greater wishful thinking and self-blame coping, lower social support, and greater perceived racism were important variables in explaining the elevated PTSD symptoms among Hispanics. Results are discussed in the context of Hispanic culture and may be important for prevention of mental illness in the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States.     

Bicycle helmets – A case of risk compensation?

Several studies have shown that bicycle helmets have the potential of reducing injuries from accidents. Yet, no studies have found good evidence of an injury reducing effect in countries that have introduced bicycle helmet legislation. Two of the most promising explanations for why helmet laws do not work as intended are risk compensation and shifts in the cycle population as a response to the law.The present article investigates whether the lack of effect of helmet wearing laws is due to risk compensation mechanisms or population shifts (i.e. discouraging cyclists with the lowest accident risk, and thereby increasing the overall average risk per cyclist). A random sample of 1504 bicycle owners in Norway responded to a questionnaire on among other things helmet use, bicycle equipment use, accident involvement, cycling behaviour and risk perception. Data were analysed by using structural equation model (SEM). The results show that the cyclist population in Norway can be divided into two sub-populations: one speed-happy group that cycle fast and have lots of cycle equipment including helmets, and one traditional kind of cyclist without much equipment, cycling slowly. With all the limitations that have to be placed on a cross sectional study such as this, the results indicate that at least part of the reason why helmet laws do not appear to be beneficial is that they disproportionately discourage the safest cyclists.     

The assessment of incarcerated sexual delinquents’ risk of recidivism

IntroductionThe present study examined the possibility of assessing the risk of sexual recidivism on the basis of static and dynamic factors.ObjectiveA comparison was carried out of detainees on the basis of their scores on a predictive scale of risk of recidivism, on their empathy towards the victim, on their attributive style, and on their self-esteem.MethodThree samples of detainees were compared: two samples of individuals guilty of sexual crime (one sample having committed the aggression towards adults, the second towards children under fifteen years of age) and a control group composed of non-sexual delinquents.ResultsResults showed that sexual offenders targeting children had a lower risk of recidivism than sexual offenders of adults. However, when considering only the recidivists, no difference was found in risk between the two populations.ConclusionIn conclusion, some of the dynamic factors that were analyzed could be retained to complete the static factors in predictive scales of risk of recidivism.     

Occupational violence: Armed holdup—A risk management approach

Workplace violence covers a wide spectrum of incidents of aggression that may occur at work. One area of particular concern relates to holdups. This study reviewed all incidents of robbery (holdups and bag snatches) occurring in a quasi-government wagering organization throughout Queensland, Australia between 1990 and August 1993. The study covered 30 robberies, at 28 sites with 34 subjects, 22 of whom consented to complete a questionnaire related to the stressfulness and impact of the event. Most robberies occurred at opening or closing time, at sites situated on a main thoroughfare, predominantly on a Monday. Single males (n =15) or a pair (n =15) mostly carrying a gun were the perpetrators. Nineteen of the 22 victims attended critical incident debriefing and most found this valuable. Only one subject interviewed lost time for stress (and this was the fourth time she had been robbed). One subject not interviewed was hospitalized. Other subjects had minor physical injuries, but suffered emotionally for up to a year after the incident. Recommendations focused on the hierarchy of control (environmental and engineering controls in preference to people-focused change). Additionally training in the normal processes of grief and trauma was recommended.     

Adolescent maternity: A risk factor in poverty situations?

This paper describes the psychosocial characteristics of adolescent mothers living in poverty in urban communities of Uruguay, whose children are now 0 to 5 years old. A sample of 965 mothers representative of the poor urban communities in the entire country was studied. One hundred thirty-six of these mothers were adolescents, 19 years old or younger. Six major areas were explored: socioeconomic status and social support, family characteristics, child-rearing practices, maternal and paternal availability, and characteristics of the child. In the group of children 2 to 5 years of age, psychomotor development was explored using the Test de Desarrollo Psicomotor (TEPSI). Psychosocial risk and child development were compared for adolescent and nonadolescent poor urban mothers. Children in both groups showed negative effects. It was not found that children of adolescent mothers did worse than those of nonadolescent mothers. Therefore, it was concluded that adolescent maternity is a complex phenomenon that cannot be viewed in isolation from the social environment in which it takes place. The results indicated that in poor communities the poverty-related risk factors may obscure the effect of the age-related ones.     

Are comparative risk judgements consistent across time and events?

Research reveals pervasive optimism in people's comparative risk judgements such that people believe they are less likely than others to experience negative events. Two studies explored the extent to which people are consistent in their comparative risk judgements across time and events. Both studies found strong evidence for consistency across time and some evidence for consistency across events. The consistency across time and events was moderated by experience. Specifically, when viewed together, the studies suggest that experience produces an initial decrease in the consistency of comparative judgements (Study 2), followed by greater consistency in subsequent judgements (Study 1). The discussion focuses on reconciling evidence demonstrating consistency with evidence demonstrating variability.