Considering too few alternatives: The mental model theory of extensional reasoning

When solving a simple probabilistic problem, people tend to build an incomplete mental representation. We observe this pattern in responses to probabilistic problems over a set of premises using the conjunction, disjunction, and conditional propositional connectives. The mental model theory of extensional reasoning explains this bias towards underestimating the number of possibilities: In reckoning with different interpretations of the premises (logical rules, mental model theoretical, and, specific to conditional premises, conjunction and biconditional interpretation) the mental model theory accounts for the majority of observations. Different interpretations of a premise result in a build-up of mental models that are often incomplete. These mental models are processed using either an extensional strategy relying on proportions amongst models, or a conflict monitoring strategy. The consequence of considering too few possibilities is an erroneous probability estimate akin to that faced by decision makers who fail to generate and consider all alternatives, a characteristic of bounded rationality. We compare our results to the results published by Johnson-Laird, Legrenzi, Girotto, Legrenzi, and Caverni [Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 62 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]–88 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. doi:10 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar].1037 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]/0033 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]-295X Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar].106 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar].1 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar].62 Johnson-Laird, P., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., &; Caverni, J. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62–88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]], and we observe lower performance levels than those in the original article.     

Mind Perception and Individual Differences: A Replication and Extension

Mind perception involves attributing higher functional abilities to others (e.g., saying a dog feels pain). The relationships between mind perception and psychopathology—autism, psychopathy, and schizotypy—have been revealed by K. Gray, Jenkins, Heberlein, and Wegner (2011 Gray, K., Jenkins, A. C., Heberlein, A. S., &; Wegner, D. M. (2011). Distortions of mind perception in psychopathology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 477–479. doi:10.1073/pnas.1015493108[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); however, mind perception has yet to be correlated with personality. Participants (N = 180) completed measures of personality, psychopathology, and mind perception. The psychopathology results were consistent with Gray et al. (2011 Gray, K., Jenkins, A. C., Heberlein, A. S., &; Wegner, D. M. (2011). Distortions of mind perception in psychopathology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 477–479. doi:10.1073/pnas.1015493108[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The Big Five captured mind perception virtually as much as the three psychopathologies captured mind perception. Mind perception is not solely relevant to psychopathology; it is also relevant to everyday personality.     

Predictors of Self-Reported Prospective and Retrospective Memory in a Population-Based Sample of Older Adults

In this article, the authors examined predictors of self-reported everyday memory failures using the Prospective and Retrospective Questionnaire (PRMQ; Smith, Della Sala, Logie, &; Maylor, 2000 Smith, G. V., Della Sala, S., Logie, R. H. and Maylor, E. A. M. 2000. Prospective and retrospective memory in normal ageing and dementia: A questionnaire study. Memory, 8: 311–321. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in a population-based sample of older adults (age range = 60–90 years; N = 250). The results showed that a higher frequency of reported failures was associated with lower scores on the personality dimension of self-directedness as assessed by the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI; Cloninger, Dragan, Svrakic, &; Przybeck, 1993 Cloninger, R. C., Dragan, M. S., Svrakic, D. M. and Przybeck, T. R. 1993. A psychobiological model of temperament and character. Archives of General Psychiatry, 50: 975–990. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and more depressive symptoms on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D; Radloff, 1977 Radloff, L. S. 1977. The CES-D scale: A self-report depression scale for research in the general population. Applied Psychological Measurement, 1: 385–401. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, PRMQ scores showed no relationships with objective memory ability, as reflected by a series of retrospective memory measures and a measure of prospective memory. Neither were the PRMQ scales associated with general cognitive functioning as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; Folstein, Folstein, &; McHugh, 1977). Taken together, the results indicate that within the older population, self-reported memory as assessed by the PRMQ may reflect mood-state and personality factors rather than individual differences in memory and cognitive ability.     

Extending a Multilab Preregistered Replication of the Ego-Depletion Effect to a Research Program

We reanalyze the recent multilab preregistered study on ego-depletion by Hagger and Chatzisarantis (2016 Hagger, M. S., &; Chatzisarantis, N. L. D. (2016). A multilab preregistered replication of the ego-depletion effect. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11, 546–573. doi:10.1177/1745691616652873[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as if their data were obtained under the research program-strategy (Witte &; Zenker, 2016a Witte, E. H., &; Zenker, F. (2016a). Beyond schools—Reply to Marsman, Ly, and Wagenmakers. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 38, 313–317. doi:10.1080/01973533.2016.1227710[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2016b Witte, E. H., &; Zenker, F. (2016b). Reconstructing recent work on macro-social stress as a research program. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 38, 301–307. doi:10.1080/01973533.2016.1207077[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This strengthens Hagger and Chatzisarantis’s (2016 Hagger, M. S., &; Chatzisarantis, N. L. D. (2016). A multilab preregistered replication of the ego-depletion effect. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11, 546–573. doi:10.1177/1745691616652873[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) main conclusion, because our reanalysis more directly corroborates the absence of a medium-sized, or a small-sized, ego-depletion effect (d?=?.50 under α?=?β?=?.05; d?=?.20 under α?=?β?=?.01). We explain how a smaller ego-depletion effect of d?=?.04 can be tested under similar conditions, having determined this value by maximum likelihood estimation, and compare the research program-strategy to a standard meta-analytic integration.     

Childhood Sexual Abuse and Adulthood Parenting: The Mediating Role of Intimate Partner Violence

This study examined the role of intimate partner victimization in mediating the relationship between childhood sexual abuse and adulthood parenting in a community sample of mothers reliant on public assistance (N = 483). Baron and Kenny's (1986 Baron, R. M. and Kenny, D. A. 1986. The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51: 1173–1182. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) method for establishing mediation was used to address this question. A recent history of intimate partner violence mediated the relationship between childhood sexual abuse and psychological aggression; however, a lifetime history of intimate partner violence did not. Depressive symptomatology was found to mediate the relationship between childhood sexual abuse and parental warmth. The impact of childhood sexual abuse on corporal punishment was indirect through its association with childhood physical abuse and witnessing domestic violence. Implications for research, theory development, and practice are provided.     

The Effect of the Accountability Variables of Responsibility,Openness, and Answerability on Authentic Leadership

One salient aspect of authentic leadership is the possibility that it can be developed (Walumbwa, Avolio, Gardner, Wernsing, &; Peterson, 2008 Walumbwa, F. O., Avolio, B. J., Gardner, W. L., Wernsing, T. S., &; Peterson, S. J. (2008). Authentic leadership: Development and validation of a theory-based measure. Journal of Management, 34(1), 89–126. doi:10.1177/0149206307308913[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, the relative paucity of research on authentic leadership as a dependent variable needs to be addressed. The purpose of this cross-sectional quantitative study is to examine the three factors of accountability: (a) responsibility, (b) openness, and (c) answerability (Wood &; Winston, 2007 Wood, J. A., &; Winston, B. E. (2007). Development of three scales to measure leader accountability. Leadership &; Organization Development Journal, 28(2), 167–185. doi:10.1108/01437730710726859[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) as antecedents to authentic leadership. Using survey results from a sample of full-time employees at six faith-based institutions of higher education in the United States, a predictive relationship was investigated through hierarchical regression analysis. The results indicated that the variables of responsibility, openness, and answerability predict the perception of authentic leadership.     

Reconstructing Recent Work on Macrosocial Stress as a Research Program

We reconstruct recent work on macrosocial stress (Chou, Parmar, &; Galinsky, 2016 Chou, E. Y., Parmar, B. L., &; Galinsky, A. D. (2016). Economic insecurity increases physical pain. Psychological Science, 27, 434–454. doi:10.1177/0956797615625640[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as if it were an instance of a research strategy that tests point-alternative hypotheses within a full-fledged research program. Because this strategy is free of various deficits that beset dominant strategies (e.g., meta-analysis, Bayes factor analysis), our article demonstrates one way in which the confidence crisis may be overcome.     

The Rediscovery of Bifactor Measurement Models

Bifactor latent structures were introduced over 70 years ago, but only recently has bifactor modeling been rediscovered as an effective approach to modeling construct-relevant multidimensionality in a set of ordered categorical item responses. I begin by describing the Schmid-Leiman bifactor procedure (Schmid &; Leiman, 1957 Schmid, J. 1957. The comparability of the bi-factor and second-order factor patterns. Journal of Experimental Education, 25: 249–253. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and highlight its relations with correlated-factors and second-order exploratory factor models. After describing limitations of the Schmid-Leiman, 2 newer methods of exploratory bifactor modeling are considered, namely, analytic bifactor (Jennrich &; Bentler, 2011 Jennrich, R. I. and Bentler, P. M. 2011. Exploratory bi-factor analysis. Psychometrika, 76: 537–549. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and target bifactor rotations (Reise, Moore, &; Maydeu-Olivares, 2011 Reise, S. P., Moore, T. M. and Maydeu-Olivares, A. 2011. Targeted bifactor rotations and assessing the impact of model violations on the parameters of unidimensional and bifactor models. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 71: 684–711. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Then I discuss limited- and full-information estimation approaches to confirmatory bifactor models that have emerged from the item response theory and factor analysis traditions, respectively. Comparison of the confirmatory bifactor model to alternative nested confirmatory models and establishing parameter invariance for the general factor also are discussed. Finally, important applications of bifactor models are reviewed. These applications demonstrate that bifactor modeling potentially provides a solid foundation for conceptualizing psychological constructs, constructing measures, and evaluating a measure's psychometric properties. However, some applications of the bifactor model may be limited due to its restrictive assumptions.     

Processing of musical structure by high-functioning adolescents with autism spectrum disorders

Enhanced pitch perception and memory have been cited as evidence of a local processing bias in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This bias is argued to account for enhanced perceptual functioning (Mottron &; Burack, 2001 Mottron, L. and Burack, J. A. 2001. “Enhanced perceptual functioning in the development of autism”. In The development of autism: Perspectives from theory to research, Edited by: Burack, J. A., Charman, T., Yirmiya, N. and Zelazo, P. R. 131–147. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.  [Google Scholar]; Mottron, Dawson, Soulières, Hubert, &; Burack, 2006 Mottron, L., Dawson, M., Soulières, I., Hubert, B. and Burack, J. 2006. Enhanced perceptual functioning in autism: An update, and eight principles of autistic perception. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 36(1): 27–43. doi:10.1007/s10803-005-0040-7[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and central coherence theories of ASD (Frith, 1989 Frith, U. 1989. Autism: Explaining the enigma, Oxford: United Kingdom: Blackwell.  [Google Scholar]; Happé &; Frith, 2006 Happé, F. and Frith, U. 2006. The weak coherence account: Detail-focused cognitive style in autism spectrum disorders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 36(1): 5–25. doi:10.1007/s10803-005-0039-0[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A local processing bias confers a different cognitive style to individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999 Happé, F. 1999. Autism: Cognitive deficit or cognitive style?. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 3(6): 216–222. doi:10.1016/S1364-6613(99)01318-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which accounts in part for their good visuospatial and visuoconstructive skills. Here, we present analogues in the auditory domain, audiotemporal or audioconstructive processing, which we assess using a novel experimental task: a musical puzzle. This task evaluates the ability of individuals with ASD to process temporal sequences of musical events as well as various elements of musical structure and thus indexes their ability to employ a global processing style. Musical structures created and replicated by children and adolescents with ASD (10–19 years old) and typically developing children and adolescents (7–17 years old) were found to be similar in global coherence. Presenting a musical template for reference increased accuracy equally for both groups, with performance associated to performance IQ and short-term auditory memory. The overall pattern of performance was similar for both groups; some puzzles were easier than others and this was the case for both groups. Task performance was further found to be correlated with the ability to perceive musical emotions, more so for typically developing participants. Findings are discussed in light of the empathizing-systemizing theory of ASD (Baron-Cohen, 2009 Baron-Cohen, S. 2009. Autism: The Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) Theory. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1156: 68–80. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04467.x[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the importance of describing the strengths of individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999 Happé, F. 1999. Autism: Cognitive deficit or cognitive style?. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 3(6): 216–222. doi:10.1016/S1364-6613(99)01318-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Heaton, 2009 Heaton, P. 2009. Assessing musical skills in autistic children who are not savants. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences, 364: 1443–1447. doi:10.1098/rstb.2008.0327[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

A closer look at moral dilemmas: Latent dimensions of morality and the difference between trolley and footbridge dilemmas

Although a distinction between moral-personal and moral-impersonal dilemmas (Greene, Sommerville, Nystrom, Darley, & Cohen, 2001 Greene, J. D., Sommerville, R. B., Nystrom, L. E., Darley, J. M. and Cohen, J. D. 2001. An fMRI investigation of emotional engagement in moral judgement. Science, 293: 2105–2108. doi:10.1126/science.1062872.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) has been widely accepted as an explanation for a difference between the trolley and footbridge dilemmas (Thomson, 1985 Thomson, J. J. 1985. “The trolley problem”. In Ethics: Problems and principles, Edited by: Fischer, J. M. and Ravizza, M. Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.  [Google Scholar]), its psychometric properties remain a mystery. In this study 219 participants completed 62 moral dilemma tasks used in Greene et al. (2001 Greene, J. D., Sommerville, R. B., Nystrom, L. E., Darley, J. M. and Cohen, J. D. 2001. An fMRI investigation of emotional engagement in moral judgement. Science, 293: 2105–2108. doi:10.1126/science.1062872.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and the correlation structure among the dilemmas was analysed through factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Findings suggest that, first, moral-personal dilemmas are composed of one factor, indicating that the assumption in Greene et al. (2001 Greene, J. D., Sommerville, R. B., Nystrom, L. E., Darley, J. M. and Cohen, J. D. 2001. An fMRI investigation of emotional engagement in moral judgement. Science, 293: 2105–2108. doi:10.1126/science.1062872.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) was supported. Second, moral-impersonal dilemmas are explained by two factors that reflect procedural and consequential aspects of decision making. Third, the trolley and footbridge dilemmas fall under the same factor category; therefore the difference between the two dilemmas cannot be attributed to emotional involvement. Additionally, the results of the structural equation modelling suggest that they differ in the engagement of rational processing.     

Commentary Research on gene–environment interdependence: Honing the tools and examining the angles

The insightful overview by Sir Michael Rutter (this issue) on gene–environment interdependence comes about 10 years after the breakthrough Science publications on gene–environment interactions (G×E) involving the MAOA and 5-HTT genes by Caspi et al. (2002 Caspi, A., McClay, J., Moffitt, T. E., Mill, J., Martin, J.Craig, I. W. 2002. Role of genotype in the cycle of violence in maltreated children. Science, 297: 851–854. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2003 Caspi, A., Sugden, K., Moffitt, T. E., Taylor, A., Craig, I. W.Harrington, H. 2003. Influence of life stress on depression: Moderation by a polymorphism in the 5-HTT gene. Science, 301: 386–389. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Since then, a field of research has burgeoned that has produced replications as well as intriguing new evidence of gene–environment interdependence. At the same time, however, the field has witnessed a growing scepticism about the relevance of studying gene–environment interactions and has seen replication failures (see Duncan & Keller, 2011 Duncan, L. E. and Keller, M. C. 2011. A critical review of the first 10 years of candidate gene-by-environment interaction research in psychiatry. American Journal of Psychiatry, 168: 1041–1049. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Risch et al., 2009 Risch, N., Herell, R., Lehner, T., Liang, K.-Y., Eaves, L.Hoh, J. 2009. Interaction between the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), stressful life events, and risk of depression: A meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association, 301: 2462–2471. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Against this backdrop, we comment and elaborate on several of the key issues raised by Rutter, and suggest some directions for future research on G×E. Specifically, we discuss (1) replication issues; (2) the crucial role of experiments in understanding gene–environment interdependence; (3) current unknowns with regard to differential susceptibility; and (4) clinical and practical implications of G×E research.     

Motive Arousal Without Pictures? An Experimental Validation of a Hybrid Implicit Motive Test

Pictures are widely used as stimuli in implicit motive tests. Hybrid forms of such tests present pictures and declarative statements underneath pictures. Some authors have argued that explicitly declaring agreement with motive-related statements presented underneath pictures might shift the validity of such tests from capturing less implicit motives to more explicit motives. If that is the case, pictures as elicitors of implicit motives might become less relevant. Adopting the views on validity presented by Borsboom, Mellenbergh, and van Heerden (2004 Borsboom, D., Mellenbergh, G. J., &; van Heerden, J. (2004). The concept of validity. Psychological Review, 111, 1061–1071. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.111.4.1061[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Bornstein (2011 Bornstein, R. F. (2011). Toward a process-focused model of test score validity: Improving psychological assessment in science and practice. Psychological Assessment, 23, 532–544. doi:10.1037/a0022402[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), as well as item generation theory, we investigated whether the availability of pictures in hybrid motive tests causally affects test scores. To this end, we administered the Multi-Motive Grid (MMG; Sokolowski, Schmalt, Langens, &; Puca, 2000 Sokolowski, K., Schmalt, H.-D., Langens, T. A., &; Puca, R. M. (2000). Assessing achievement, affiliation, and power motives all at once: The Multi-Motive-Grid (MMG). Journal of Personality Assessment, 74, 126–145. doi:10.1207/S15327752JPA740109[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), as an example of a hybrid motive test, either with or without pictures to 108 participants. Results revealed that the availability of pictures had no effect on 3 out of 6 test scores. Furthermore, eliminating pictures had only inconsistent effects on correlations with a test of explicit motives. We conclude that pictures might not unanimously elicit motives in implicit motive tests that use declarative statements as response options.     

Beyond Schools: Reply to Marsman,Ly, and Wagenmakers

We respond to comments by Marsman, Ly, and Wagenmakers (2016 Marsman, M., Ly, A., &; Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2016). Four requirements for an acceptable research program. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 38(6), 308–312. doi:10.1080/01973533.2016.1221349[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) on Witte and Zenker (2016b Witte, E. H., &; Zenker, F. (2016b). Reconstructing recent work on macrosocial stress as a research program. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 38(6), 301–307. doi:10.1080/01973533.2016.1207077[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]).     

Quality of Life in the U.S. Navy: Impact on Performance and Career Continuance

Previous research has shown the importance of quality of life (QOL) for critical organizational outcomes such as the retention of U.S. Navy personnel (Wilcove, Schwerin, &; Wolosin, 2003 Wilcove, G., Schwerin, M. and Wolosin, D. 2003. An exploratory model of quality of life in the U.S. Navy.. Military Psychology, 15(2): 133–152. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Marines (Hindelang, Schwerin, &; Farmer, 2004 Hindelang, R. L., Schwerin, M. J. and Farmer, W. L. 2004. Quality of life (QOL) in the U.S. Marine Corps: The validation of a QOL model for predicting reenlistment intentions.. Military Psychology, 16(2): 115–134. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). These studies employed a life domains approach addressing a full range of work and non-work life needs as well as specific aspects of each life domain. In contrast, most other research exploring outcomes critical to military organizations focused only on work life needs of personnel (e.g., job satisfaction, organizational commitment, command climate). This study extends previous research by (a) including both performance and career-continuance plans of personnel as outcomes of interest, (b) exploring the contribution of an additional life need—spiritual well-being—to the measurement of QOL, and (c) examining changes in perceptions of QOL over time between 1999 and 2002 among U.S. Navy personnel. Implications of findings to military personnel, families, and manpower and personnel policy as well as future directions for research are discussed.     

Immediate Psychological Impact of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Symptoms of PTSD and Coping Skills

Five hundred eighty-eight participants completed the Short Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Rating Interview (SPRINT; Connor &; Davidson, 2001 Connor, K. and Davidson, J. 2001. SPRINT: A brief global assessment of post-traumatic stress disorder. International Clinical Psychopharmacology, 16(5): 279–284. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the Brief COPE (Carver, 1997 Carver, C. S. 1997. You want to measure coping but your protocol's too long: Consider the Brief COPE. International Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 4(1): 92–100. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to determine the psychological impacts and coping styles of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Gulf Coast residents. Participants were divided into at-risk and nonrisk groups based on their occupations. Results indicated that 28% of the respondents scored above the SPRINT cutoff score, indicating significant levels of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Furthermore, the Brief COPE results revealed that the at-risk group showed a negative correlation between active coping and the level of PTSD-related symptoms. The at-risk respondents also showed negative correlations of PTSD-related symptoms with coping strategies such as acceptance, planning, positive reframing, humor, and religion. Future research directions are also discussed.     

Correcting Overestimated Effect Size Estimates in Multiple Trials

In a simulation study, Brand, Bradley, Best, and Stoica (2011 Brand, A., Bradley, M. T., Best, L. A. and Stoica, G. 2011. Multiple trials may yield exaggerated effect size estimates. The Journal of General Psychology, 138: 1–11. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have shown that Cohen's d is notably overestimated if computed for data aggregated over multiple trials. Although the phenomenon is highly important for studies and meta-analyses of studies structurally similar to the simulated scenario, the authors do not comprehensively address how the problem could be handled. In this comment, we first suggest a corrective term d ^′ _c that includes the number and correlation of trials. Next, the results of a simulation study provide evidence that the proposed d_c′ results in a more precise estimation of trial-level effects. We conclude that, in practice, d ^′ _c together with plausible estimates of inter-trial correlation will produce a more precise effect size range compared to that suggested by Brand and colleagues (2011 Brand, A., Bradley, M. T., Best, L. A. and Stoica, G. 2011. Multiple trials may yield exaggerated effect size estimates. The Journal of General Psychology, 138: 1–11. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Calibrated Bayes Factors Should Not Be Used: A Reply to Hoijtink,van Kooten,and Hulsker

Hoijtink, Kooten, and Hulsker (2016 Hoijtink, H., van Kooten, P., &; Hulsker, K. (2016). Why Bayesian psychologists should change the way they use the Bayes factor. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 51, 1--9. doi: 10.1080/00273171.2014.969364.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) present a method for choosing the prior distribution for an analysis with Bayes factor that is based on controlling error rates, which they advocate as an alternative to our more subjective methods (Morey &; Rouder, 2014 Morey, R.D., &; Rouder, J.N. (2014). Bayesfactor: Computation of Bayes factors for common designs. R package version 0.9.9. Retrieved from http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BayesFactor [Google Scholar]; Rouder, Speckman, Sun, Morey, &; Iverson, 2009 Rouder, J.N., Speckman, P.L., Sun, D., Morey, R.D., &; Iverson, G. (2009). Bayesian t-tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 16, 225–237. doi: 10.3758/PBR.16.2.225[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, &; van der Maas, 2011 Wagenmakers, E.-J., Wetzels, R., Borsboom, D., &; van der Maas, H. (2011). Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: The case of psi. A comment on Bem (2011). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 426–432. doi: 10.1037/a0022790[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We show that the method they advocate amounts to a simple significance test, and that the resulting Bayes factors are not interpretable. Additionally, their method fails in common circumstances, and has the potential to yield arbitrarily high Type II error rates. After critiquing their method, we outline the position on subjectivity that underlies our advocacy of Bayes factors.