The generalized matching law in elite sport competition: football play calling as operant choice

A mathematical model of operant choice, the generalized matching law was used to analyze play-calling data from the 2004 National Football League season. In all analyses, the relative ratio of passing to rushing plays was examined as a function of the relative ratio of reinforcement, defined as yards gained, from passing versus rushing. Different analyses focused on season-aggregate data for the league as a whole, game-by-game data for the league as a whole, and game-by-game data for individual teams. In all analyses except those for a few individual teams, the generalized matching law accounted for a majority of variance in play calling. The typical play-calling pattern reflected undermatching (suggesting imperfect sensitivity of play calling to yardage-gained reinforcers) and a bias for calling rushing plays. Bias was found to be a function of both the relative risk of turnovers and the relative variability in yards gained associated with passing versus rushing plays. The external validity of the matching analyses was supported by significant correlations between parameters of the generalized matching law and team success on offense and season winning percentage. These results illustrate the broad applicability of the generalized matching law to problems outside of the laboratory.     

The applied importance of research on the matching law

In this essay, we evaluate the applied implications of two articles related to the matching law and published in the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, May 1994. Building on Mace's (1994) criteria for increasing the applied relevance of basic research, we evaluate the applied implications of basic research studies. Research by Elsmore and McBride (1994) and Savastano and Fantino (1994) involve an extension of the behavioral model of choice. Elsmore and McBride used rats as subjects, but arranged a multioperant environment that resembles some of the complex contingencies of human behavior. Savastino and Fantino used human subjects and extended the matching law to ratio and interval contingencies. These experiments contribute to a growing body of knowledge on the matching law and its relevance for human behavior.     

Stimulus effects on concurrent performance in transition

Six experimentally naive pigeons were exposed to concurrent variable-interval variable-interval schedules in a three-key procedure in which food reinforcement followed pecks on the side keys and pecks on the center key served as changeover responses. In Phase 1, 3 birds were exposed to 20 combinations of five variable-interval values, with each variable-interval value consistently associated with a different color on the side keys. Another 3 pigeons were exposed to the same 20 conditions, but with a more standard procedure that used a nondifferential discriminative stimulus on the two side keys throughout all conditions. In Phase 2, the differential and nondifferential stimulus conditions were reversed for each pigeon. Each condition lasted for one 5-hr session and one subsequent 1-hr session. In the last 14 conditions of each phase, the presence of differential discriminative stimuli decreased the time necessary for differential responding to develop and increased the sensitivity of behavior to reinforcement distribution in the 1st hr of training; during the last hours of training in each condition, however, the effects of the differential discriminative stimuli could not be distinguished from the effects of reinforcement distribution per se. These results show the importance of studying transitions in behavior as well as final performance. They may also be relevant to discrepancies in the results of previous experiments that have used nonhuman and human subjects.     

BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH ON CHOICE RESPONDING

Choice responding refers to the manner in which individuals allocate their time or responding among available response options. In this article, we first review basic investigations that have identified and examined variables that influence choice responding, such as response effort and reinforcement rate, immediacy, and quality. We then describe recent bridge and applied studies that illustrate how the results of basic research on choice responding can help to account for human behavior in natural environments and improve clinical assessments and interventions.     

Choice and segmented interreinforcement intervals

Pigeons were trained on a two-key concurrent schedule, where food reinforcers on one key were arranged by a simple variable-interval schedule and on the other key by a chain variable-interval variable-interval schedule. When the initial link of the chain was in effect, the pigeons tended to respond more on the simple variable-interval schedule, and hence less on the chain, than would be expected from a comparison of both the local and overall rates of reinforcement of the two schedules. When the terminal link of the chain was in effect, the pigeons responded more on the chain than would be expected from a comparison of the rates of reinforcement of the schedules then in effect. Overall responding on the chain was not proportional to overall reinforcement on the chain but rather was a by-product of responding during initial- and terminal-link phases.     

Choice between repleting/depleting patches: A concurrent-schedule procedure

Six pigeons responded on two concurrently available keys that defined patches with the following characteristics. Reinforcer stores repleted on a patch as a linear function of time when the bird had last responded to the other patch, or else did not replete. Repletion schedules thus timed only when the bird was absent from the patch. Reinforcer stores on a patch could be depleted and reinforcers obtained, again as a linear function of time, when the bird responded on a key. Depletion schedules thus timed only when the birds were present at a patch. Experiment 1 investigated changing relative depletion rates when repletion rates were constant and equal (Part 1) and changing relative repletion rates when the depletion rates were constant and equal (Part 2). Response- and time-allocation ratios conformed to a generalized matching relation with obtained reinforcer ratios, and there appeared to be no control by the size of the reinforcer stores. In Experiment 2, absolute depletion rates were varied with a pair of unequal repletion rates (Part 3), and absolute repletion rates were varied with a pair of unequal depletion rates (Part 4). Dwell times in the patches were not affected by either variation. Melioration theory predicted the results of Experiment 1 quite closely but erroneously predicted changing dwell times in Experiment 2. Molar maximization theory did not accurately predict the results of either experiment.     

Sensitivity to reinforcement in concurrent arithmetic and exponential schedules

The generalized matching law states that the logarithm of the ratio of responses emitted or time spent responding in concurrent variable-interval schedules is a linear function of the logarithm of the ratio of reinforcements obtained. The slope of this relation, sensitivity to reinforcement, varies about 1.0 but has been shown to be different when obtained in different laboratories. The present paper analyzed the results from 18 experiments on concurrent variable-interval schedule performance and showed that response-allocation sensitivity to reinforcement was significantly smaller when arithmetic, rather than exponential, progressions were used to produce variable-interval schedules. There were no differences in time-allocation sensitivity between the two methods of constructing variable-interval schedules. Since the two laboratories have consistently used different methods for constructing variable-interval schedules, the differences in obtained sensitivities to reinforcement are explained. The reanalysis suggests that animals may be sensitive to differences in the distribution of reinforcements in time.