A model for predicting the outcomes of basketball games

We investigated the task of predicting the outcomes of sporting events, in particular, basketball games. In two experiments, college students predicted the outcomes of a series of National Basketball Association (NBA) games. Following each prediction, the subject received feedback in the form of the actual outcome of the NBA game. After a period of initial learning about the relative strengths of the teams, the subjects were surprisingly successful in their predictions. We examined expert–novice differences by comparing the published predictions of professional oddsmakers to the predictions of the experimental subjects. The average predictions by the subjects were approximately as accurate as the predictions of experts. Finally, we applied a mathematical model, developed originally as an account of simpler learning experiments, to the subjects' responses. We found that the course of the subjects' learning about the teams was well-described by this model.     

The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence

Intuition suggests that having more information can increase prediction accuracy of uncertain outcomes. In four experiments, we show that more knowledge can decrease accuracy and simultaneously increase prediction confidence. Participants were asked to predict basketball games sampled from a National Basketball Association season. All participants were provided with statistics (win record, halftime score), while half were additionally given the team names. Knowledge of names increased the confidence of basketball fans consistent with their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions. Contrary to this belief, it decreased the participants’ accuracy by reducing their reliance on statistical cues. One of the factors contributing to this underweighting of statistical cues was a bias to bet on more familiar teams against the statistical odds. Finally, in a real betting experiment, fans earned less money if they knew the team names while persisting in their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions.     

Syllogistic reasoning time: Disconfirmation disconfirmed

University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada Models of deductive reasoning typically assume that reasoners dedicate more logical analysis to unbelievable conclusions than to believable ones (e.g., Evans, Newstead, Allen, & Pollard, 1994; Newstead, Pollard, Evans, & Allen, 1992). When the conclusion is believable, reasoners are assumed to accept it without much further thought, but when it is unbelievable, they are assumed to analyze the conclusion, presumably in an attempt to disconfirm it. This disconfirmation hypothesis leads to two predictions, which were tested in the present experiment: Reasoners should take longer to reason about problems leading to unbelievable conclusions, and reasoners should consider more models or representations of premise information for unbelievable conclusions than for believable ones. Neither prediction was supported by our data. Indeed, we observed that reasoners took significantly longer to reason about believable conclusions than about unbelievable ones and generated the same number of representations regardless of the believability of the premises. We propose a model, based on a modified version of verbal reasoning theory (Polk & Newell, 1995), that does not depend on the disconfirmation assumption.     

Testosterone and attribution of successful competition

Mood, personal merit, and/or its perception have been suggested to be mediating factors in testosterone responses to competition. Previously we have found that personal contribution and attribution were related to testosterone levels after successful competition. To confirm such associations, two basketball teams (n = 17 players) that emerged as winners in two actual matches were studied. Salivary testosterone levels and mood were measured before and after the games. Individual contribution to the outcome was assessed, and personal satisfaction and causal attribution of outcome were reported by players. Testosterone concentrations increased to near significance in Team 1 but not in Team 2, who attributed their victory more to luck than did Team 1. This latter team showed notably decreased vigor, and both teams showed fatigue at the end of the match. Post‐match testosterone levels were only significantly, negatively related to external attribution. The results support the idea that causal attribution of the outcome is contributing to the variance of the testosterone responses to real confrontations where the outcome is highly dependent on personal merit. Aggr. Behav. 26:235–240, 2000. © 2000 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Personal and situational variables that describe coping with acute stress in competitive sport

The authors examined the degree to which competitive basketball players in Australia were consistent in their cognitive appraisals and coping strategies in response to 4 types of stressful situations that they had experienced during previous basketball games as functions of perceived stress intensity. The authors predicted that both approach and avoidance coping strategies would be dependent on the type of stressful event, in accord with the transactional model. The results supported that prediction: Approach strategies were more prevalent than avoidance strategies following 3 of the 4 events. Cognitive appraisals and perceived stress intensity also strongly influenced the participants' use of coping strategies, accounting for 34% of the variance.     

Personal and Situational Variables That Describe Coping With Acute Stress in Competitive Sport

Abstract

The authors examined the degree to which competitive basketball players in Australia were consistent in their cognitive appraisals and coping strategies in response to 4 types of stressful situations that they had experienced during previous basketball games as functions of perceived stress intensity. The authors predicted that both approach and avoidance coping strategies would be dependent on the type of stressful event, in accord with the transactional model. The results supported that prediction: Approach strategies were more prevalent than avoidance strategies following 3 of the 4 events. Cognitive appraisals and perceived stress intensity also strongly influenced the participants' use of coping strategies, accounting for 34% of the variance.     

Match Madness: Probability Matching in Prediction of the NCAA Basketball Tournament1

Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. This study examines how individuals make predictions for tournament pools, one of the most popular forms of betting, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are nonrandom and, therefore, predictable.     

The ease-of-processing heuristic and the stability bias: dissociating memory, memory beliefs, and memory judgments

Judgments about memory are essential in promoting knowledge; they help identify trustworthy memories and predict what information will be retained in the future. In the three experiments reported here, we investigated the mechanisms underlying predictions about memory. In Experiments 1 and 2, single words were presented once or multiple times, in large or small type. There was a double dissociation between actual memory and predicted memory: Type size affected predicted but not actual memory, and future study opportunities affected actual memory but scarcely affected predicted memory. The results of Experiment 3 suggest that beliefs and judgments are largely independent, and neither consistently resembles actual memory. Participants' underestimation of future learning-a stability bias-stemmed from an overreliance on their current memory state in making predictions about future memory states. The overreliance on type size highlights the fundamental importance of the ease-of-processing heuristic: Information that is easy to process is judged to have been learned well.     

Myopic prediction, self-destructive secrecy, and the unexpected benefits of revealing final deadlines in negotiation

Three studies explored the psychology of social prediction by examining negotiators’ predictions of the effects of time pressure and comparing those predictions with actual outcomes. The results show that revealing final deadlines in negotiation can lead to better outcomes for the negotiator with the deadline because revelation speeds concessions by the other side. However, both naïve and experienced negotiators consistently predicted the opposite. As a result, when given the choice of revealing their final deadlines to their negotiating opponents, negotiators chose not to. The reasons for these erroneous expectations can be explained by myopic processes of prediction in which people anticipate the effects of constraints like deadlines more on their own behavior than on the behavior of others.     

The Relationship of Impulsiveness to Psychoticism and Extraversion in Elderly Psychiatric Patients

I conducted a correlational study to test the hypothesis that resource allocation outcomes become more favorable as uncertainty assessment accuracy (i.e., resolution and calibration) increases. For each of 32 college basketball games, participants predicted which team would win, estimated the subjective probability that their prediction was correct, and were given the opportunity to place a wager. The dependent variable was profit earned over the 32 bets. Proportion correct and mean certainty were controlled in the analyses. Results indicated that individuals with higher resolution scores earned significantly more profit than those with lower scores. Higher profits were also associated with better calibration.     

Counterfactual Production and Achievement Orientation in Competitive Athletic Settings1

Two studies examined the impact of achievement orientation on counterfactual production in competitive sporting situations. In Study 1, participants created counterfactuals after reading 4 vignettes. Results indicated that participants reading about winners created more subtractive and downward counterfactuals than did participants reading about losers, while participants reading about losers created more additive and upward counterfactuals than did participants reading about winners. In Study 2, using participants in 3-on-3 basketball games, achievement orientation interacted with game outcome to produce adaptive responses for participants who held a mastery orientation and maladaptive responses for participants who held an outcome orientation. In addition to achievement orientation, the margin of victory played an important role in determining the type of counterfactual produced. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Power influences the expression of Honesty-Humility: The power-exploitation affordances hypothesis

Across different experiments we show that individual differences in Honesty-Humility predict exploitation in economic games, and that this relation is moderated by situational power. Power was manipulated by comparing games in which allocators either had absolute power (dictator game), intermediate (delta game), or shared power (ultimatum game) over joint outcomes. We developed the power-exploitation affordances hypothesis that predicts that allocators with lower Honesty-Humility act more exploitative when they have absolute power than when their power is intermediate or shared. Additionally, we also tested these predictions for the actual earnings in these games. The results were generally supportive of our main hypotheses. Our findings contribute to understanding situational and personality effects on how individuals behave in positions of power (e.g., leaders).     

Simple method for predicting American presidential greatness from victory margin in popular vote (1824-1996)

The author tested the simple method (SM) for predicting presidential greatness from the winner's victory margin in the popular vote and A. M. Schlesinger Jr.'s (1986) cycles of American political history with the expert sample presidential rankings of W. J. Ridings Jr. and S. B. McIver (1997). The SM, which involves only simple calculations on minimal data available shortly after an election, predicts greatness ratings that are above average for winners with high victory margins in years of public purpose and for winners with low victory margins in years of private interest. Also, the SM predicts ratings that are below average for winners with low victory margins in public purpose years and for winners with high victory margins in private interest years. Based on the data for 42 elections from 1824 to 1996, the SM success rate was 81.0% for all elections, 85.2% for the 27 1st-term elections, 86.2% for elections after 1880, and 94.4% for 1st-term elections after 1880. Chi-square analyses showed all percentages significant at the .001 level.     

Predicting Soccer Matches After Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise

ABSTRACT— In two experiments, we investigated the effects of expertise and mode of thought on the accuracy of people's predictions. Both experts and nonexperts predicted the results of soccer matches after conscious thought, after unconscious thought, or immediately. In Experiment 1, experts who thought unconsciously outperformed participants in all other conditions. Whereas unconscious thinkers showed a correlation between expertise and accuracy of prediction, no such relation was observed for conscious thinkers or for immediate decision makers. In Experiment 2, this general pattern was replicated. In addition, experts who thought unconsciously were better at applying diagnostic information than experts who thought consciously or who decided immediately. The results are consistent with unconscious-thought theory.     

An especial skill: Support for a learned parameters hypothesis

We tested the ‘learned parameters’ hypothesis as an explanation of the ‘especial skill effect’. Outcome attainment and movement kinematics were recorded for 10 expert and 10 novice players performing basketball free-throw shots at five distances (11-19 ft) with a regular and heavy weight basketball. As predicted, experts performed better than expected relative to the regression equation at the 15 ft, free-throw line with the regular basketball, supporting the ‘especial skill effect’. This effect was not present for the experts when shooting with the heavy ball. Novices did not show an advantage at the free-throw line when performing with either ball. Although the outcome attainment scores support the ‘learned parameters’ hypotheses, kinematic analysis failed to identify differences in the movement pattern for the especial skill, suggesting that these skills (i.e., shooting at different distances) are not governed by separate motor programs.     

To Follow Expert Advice When Making a Decision: An Examination of Reactive Versus Reflective Autonomy

The present study examined whether reactive and reflective autonomy moderated individuals' responses to expert influence. Participants were given the opportunity to win money at a racetrack betting task for which they were provided with objective information about horses' previous performances along with specific expert recommendations. The experts were made to look either credible or noncredible by manipulating information on the success rate of their previous predictions. The results showed that the two forms of autonomy led to exactly opposite behaviors in response to the advice of credible experts. Reflective autonomy was significantly positively associated with following the recommendations of credible experts whereas reactive autonomy was significantly negatively associated with following the recommendations. The results also showed that it was particularly after losing their first race that reactive autonomy was related to rejecting the advice of experts. These findings indicate that reactive and reflective forms of autonomy may yield opposite patterns of behavior in certain situations.     

Is imagery better than reality? Performance in imagined dart throwing

We investigated whether deviations from optimal performance are predicted in motor imagery. In Experiment 1, novices and experts imagined and executed dart throws. In imagination, they reported the final position of the dart. Experts performed better than novices in execution and imagination. Distance to the target and bias were smaller in imagination than in execution. In Experiment 2, we dissociated the roles of feedback from proximal and distal action elements for predictions. Three groups of novices estimated the dart’s final position in imagination, in execution without visual feedback, or in execution with delayed visual feedback. Estimates did not differ significantly between groups, indicating that (the lack of) feedback did not influence predictions. Deviations from optimal performance were lower in estimated than in actual performance. In conclusion, although predictive mechanisms may be similar in imagination and execution, the full extent of deviation from optimal performance is not predicted.     

Angular relationships regulate coordination tendencies of performers in attacker–defender dyads in team sports

This study examined the continuous interpersonal interactions of performers in dyadic systems in team sports, as a function of changing information constraints. As a task vehicle, we investigated how attackers attained success in 1v1 sub-phases of basketball by exploring angular relations with immediate opponents and the basket. We hypothesized that angular relations would convey information for the attackers to dribble past defenders. Four basketball players performed as an attacker and defender in 1v1 sub-phases of basketball, in which the co-positioning and orientation of participants relative to the basket was manipulated. After video recording performance behaviors, we digitized participant movement displacement trajectories and categorized trials as successful or unsuccessful (from the attackers’ viewpoint). Results revealed that, to successfully dribble past a defender, attackers tended to explore the left hand side of the space by defenders by increasing their angular velocity and decreasing their angular variability, especially in the center of the court. Interpersonal interactions and goal-achievement in attacker–defender dyads appear to have been constrained by the angular relations sustained between participants relative to the scoring target. Results revealed the functionality of exploratory behaviors of participants attempting re-align spatial relations with an opponent in 1v1 sub-phases of team games.     

Reciprocal relationships between contextual and situational motivation in a sport setting

ObjectiveThe purpose of this investigation was to test the hypothesized reciprocal top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) relationships between motivation at one given level and motivation at the next adjacent level in Vallerand's [1997, Toward a hierarchical model of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (pp. 271–360). New York: Academic Press] Hierarchical Model of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation. These postulates were examined in two studies, whereby the dynamic interplay between motivation toward a specific life domain (i.e., contextual) and the motivation experienced during a specific point in time (i.e., situational) was examined.Method and ResultsIn Study 1, a sample of collegiate basketball players (N=162) were followed during two games at a pre-season tournament. Reciprocal TD and BU effects between athletes’ contextual motivation toward their sport and the situational motivation they experienced during their games were expected. The influence of situational factors such as perceptions of personal and team performance on situational motivation was also examined. Results from path analyses provided support for our hypotheses. Study 2 (N=150) replicated the findings of Study 1 which followed athletes during an entire basketball season. Reciprocal TD and BU effects between athletes’ contextual motivation toward their sport and the situational motivation they experienced during games of each half of the season were observed. Moreover, contextual motivation assessed at the end of the season predicted athletes’ sustained interest in their sport. Results from Study 2, also provided support for the mediating role of psychological need satisfaction on the relationship between situational factors such as perceptions of personal and team performance on athletes’ situational motivation experienced during games.ConclusionImplications for intrinsic/extrinsic motivation theory and research in the sports domain are discussed.