Creeping dispositionism: the temporal dynamics of behavior prediction

Four studies tested the hypothesis that temporal distance increases the weight of global dispositions in predicting and explaining future behavior. Study 1 found that the correspondence bias was manifested more strongly in predictions of distant future behavior than of near future behavior. Study 2 found that participants predicted higher cross-situational consistency in distant future behavior than in near future behavior. Study 3 found that participants sought information about others' more global dispositions for predicting distant future than near future behavior. Finally, Study 4 found that participants made more global causal attributions for distant future outcomes than for near future outcomes. The results were interpreted as supporting the assumption of construal level theory that perceivers use more abstract representations (higher level construals) to predict and explain more distant future behaviors.     

未来心理时间的新取向：集体未来思考

集体未来思考是指想象一个尚未发生的群体事件,其与集体记忆之间存在着复杂的相互作用。目前对集体未来思考的研究发现它的记忆基础更多为语义记忆。而有关集体未来思考的脑机制研究则相对较少,但在遗忘症患者中发现个体未来思考和集体未来思考是可分离的,并且非海马依赖的未来场景构建与集体未来思考可能存在重要联系。未来研究应该注重不同文化背景下的集体未来思考,探讨其产生条件及影响因素,并加强在正常人群中神经机制的研究,以更好地揭示集体未来思考的实质。     

What differentiates episodic future thinking from complex scene imagery?

We investigated the contributions of familiarity of setting, self-relevance and self-projection in time to episodic future thinking. The role of familiarity of setting was assessed, in Experiment 1, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical future events supposed to occur in unfamiliar settings. The role of self-relevance was assessed, in Experiment 2, by comparing episodic future thoughts to future events involving familiar others. The role of self-projection in time was assessed, in both Experiments, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical events that were not temporal in nature. Results indicated that episodic future thoughts were more clearly represented than autobiographical future events occurring in unfamiliar setting and future events involving familiar others. Our results also revealed that episodic future thoughts were indistinguishable from autobiographical atemporal events with respect to both subjective and objective detail ratings. These results suggest that future and atemporal events are mentally represented in a similar way.     

Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study

The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients’ future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.     

The open future, bivalence and assertion

It is highly now intuitive that the future is open and the past is closed now—whereas it is unsettled whether there will be a fourth world war, it is settled that there was a first. Recently, it has become increasingly popular to claim that the intuitive openness of the future implies that contingent statements about the future, such as ‘There will be a sea battle tomorrow,’ are non-bivalent (neither true nor false). In this paper, we argue that the non-bivalence of future contingents is at odds with our pre-theoretic intuitions about the openness of the future. These intuitions are revealed by our pragmatic judgments concerning the correctness and incorrectness of assertions of future contingents. We argue that the pragmatic data together with a plausible account of assertion shows that in many cases we take future contingents to be true (or to be false), though we take the future to be open in relevant respects. It follows that appeals to intuition to support the non-bivalence of future contingents are untenable. Intuition favours bivalence.     

Predicting the near and distant future

Four studies investigated individuals' confidence in predicting near future and distant future outcomes. Study 1 found that participants were more confident in theory-based predictions of psychological experiments when these experiments were expected to take place in the more distant future. Studies 2-4 examined participants' confidence in predicting their performance on near and distant future tests. These studies found that in predicting their more distant future performance, participants disregarded the format of the questions (e.g., multiple choice vs. open ended) and relied, instead, on their perceived general knowledge (e.g., history knowledge). Together, the present studies demonstrate that predictions of the more distant future are based on relatively abstract information. Individuals feel more confident in predicting the distant future than the near future when the predictions concern outcomes that are implied by relatively abstract information.     

Short horizons and tempting situations: Lack of continuity to our future selves leads to unethical decision making and behavior

People who feel continuity with their future selves are more likely to behave in ethically responsible ways as compared to people who lack continuity with their future selves. We find that individual differences in perceived similarity to one’s future self predicts tolerance of unethical business decisions (Studies 1a and 1b), and that the consideration of future consequences mediates the extent to which people regard inappropriate negotiation strategies as unethical (Study 2). We reveal that low future self-continuity predicts unethical behavior in the form of lies, false promises, and cheating (Studies 3 and 4), and that these relationships hold when controlling for general personality dimensions and trait levels of self-control (Study 4). Finally, we establish a causal relationship between future self-continuity and ethical judgments by showing that when people are prompted to focus on their future self (as opposed to the future), they express more disapproval of unethical behavior (Study 5).     

Make it real: Belief in occurrence within episodic future thought

While the cognitive and neural bases of episodic future thinking are well documented, questions remain as to what gives the sense that an imagined event belongs to one’s personal future. Capitalizing on previous research on metacognitive appraisals in autobiographical remembering, we propose that episodic future thinking involves, in varying degrees, a subjective belief in the potential occurrence of imagined future events and we explore the nature and determinants of such belief. To this aim, participants provided justifications for belief in occurrence for a series of past and future events. For each event, they also assessed their subjective feelings (belief in occurrence, autonoetic experience, and belief in accuracy) and rated various characteristics of mental representations that might contribute to these feelings. Results showed that belief in the occurrence of future events mostly related to their integration in a broader autobiographical context, especially their relevance to personal goals and their personal plausibility. We also found that belief in occurrence, autonoetic experience, and belief in accuracy represented distinct subjective appraisals of future events, which depended in part on different determinants. Based on these findings, we propose a new theoretical model of subjective feelings associated with episodic future thinking that conceives of belief in occurrence as arising from metacognitive appraisals that shape the sense that imagined events belong to one’s personal future.     

当下关注和未来利益

对未来可作这样的区分：一是在政治上有资格考虑的未来,二是那些在政治上无资格考虑的未来。前一段时期的长度取决于实际上对现在的政治决策施以影响的那种未来利益。这些未来利益的性质与我们现在的利益的性质很相近,都是一种关涉到自己的利益。政治上无资格考虑的未来则是一个在我们所及的世界之我的世界,那个世界中的利益对我们来说 一个他考虑的利益。然而,政治上无资格考虑的未来利益应进入我们的道德考虑而不是深谋远虑的评价之中,对政治上无资格考虑的未来利益的关注型地是道德层面的事情。     

Future work selves: how salient hoped-for identities motivate proactive career behaviors

The term future work self refers to an individual's representation of himself or herself in the future that reflects his or her hopes and aspirations in relation to work. The clearer and more accessible this representation, the more salient the future work self. An initial study with 2 samples (N = 397; N = 103) showed that future work self salience was distinct from established career concepts and positively related to individuals' proactive career behavior. A follow-up longitudinal analysis, Study 2 (N = 53), demonstrated that future work self salience had a lagged effect on proactive career behavior. In Study 3 (N = 233), we considered the role of elaboration, a further attribute of a future work self, and showed that elaboration motivated proactive career behavior only when future work self salience was also high. Together the studies suggest the power of future work selves as a motivational resource for proactive career behavior.     

青少年未来时间洞察力和学业成绩的关系:时间管理倾向的中介作用

思考未来对个体现在行为具有重要指导意义。本研究以1002名初、高中学生为调查对象,采用问卷调查法探究未来时间洞察力与学业成绩间的关系,以及时间管理倾向在其中的中介作用。结果表明:(1)学业成绩高低分组在未来时间洞察力各维度和时间管理倾向上差异显著。(2)未来积极、未来坚持、未来清晰和未来计划与时间管理倾向和学业成绩呈显著正相关,未来消极和未来迷茫与时间管理倾向和学业成绩呈显著负相关。(3)未来消极对学业成绩具有显著的直接预测作用;未来消极还通过时间效能感间接影响学业成绩;时间管理倾向在未来迷茫、未来清晰、未来坚持、未来计划和学业成绩之间起中介作用。     

未来自我连续性对不诚信行为的影响:一个有调节的中介模型

着眼于长期收益的跨期决策风格如何影响当下不诚信行为是决策研究的重要主题之一。研究着意探讨未来自我连续性对不诚信行为的规约作用及其条件。结果发现,(1)未来自我连续性高的人,更不能容忍不诚信行为,不诚信行为的意向更弱;(2)考虑未来后果在未来自我连续性与不诚信行为之间起中介作用,未来自我连续性越高的人,越多考虑行为的未来结果,不诚信行为的概率越低;(3)熟人/陌生人情境对未来自我连续性与考虑未来后果间关系发挥调节作用,熟人情境下,未来自我连续性高的人也会更多考虑行为的未来后果。这些发现对于理解自我连续性的行为规约功能和基于个体跨期选择助推诚信环境营造具有借鉴意义。     

Future anhedonia and time discounting

The temporal location of an event influences the way people mentally represent that event. We suggest (a) that such representational differences can produce an affective forecasting error that we call future anhedonia, which is the belief that hedonic states will be less intense in the future than in the present, and (b) that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting (i.e., the tendency to place a smaller present value on present events than on future events). Experiments 1a and 1b demonstrated that people are prone to future anhedonia, Experiments 2a and 2b ruled out artifactual alternatives, and Experiments 3a and 3b demonstrated that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting. These studies suggest that one reason why people prefer to enjoy benefits in the present and pay costs in the future is that they do not realize how they will feel when those costs and benefits are actually experienced.     

Mental time travel for self and other in three- and four-year-old children

Humans possess the unique ability to mentally travel backward in time to re-experience past events (i.e., episodic memory) and forward in time to pre-experience future events (i.e., episodic foresight). Although originally viewed as different cognitive skills, they are now both viewed as components of the episodic memory system. Recently, it has been suggested that the episodic system may allow us to not only pre-experience and predict our own future but also that of another person. In the current study, we investigate this possibility by examining the ability of three- and four-year-old children to plan for their own future and for that of another person. We found that both three- and four-year-old children performed equally, when planning for their own future or when planning for the experimenter's future. These data are consistent with the finding that planning for someone else's future recruits the same neural structures that are used when planning for one's own future.     

Accessibility and characteristics of memories of the future

Recent research suggests that some imagined future events are encoded in memory, leading to the formation of “memories of the future”. However, questions remain regarding the exact components of future event simulations that are encoded and the factors that determine their accessibility. To address these questions, the present study investigated memory for previously imagined future events using both free and cued recall tasks. The results showed that most future event simulations were successfully encoded and remained available in memory after a one week delay, but only some of them were readily accessible, whereas others could only be accessed when relevant cues were provided. Persons and locations were particularly well remembered, suggesting that these components are central to the simulation and memorisation of future events. We also found that memory for future event simulations was related to the clarity and familiarity of represented persons, the subjective feelings of pre-experience and mental time travel, the importance of imagined events to personal goals, and their emotional intensity during the initial simulation phase. Taken together, these findings expand our understanding of the formation, accessibility, and characteristics of memories of the future.     

中晚期青少年的个人规划及其与亲子、朋友沟通的关系

采用未来取向问卷（中文版）、亲子沟通和朋友沟通问卷调查了1741名高中生和大学生,从探索和投入两个方面考察了中晚期青少年个人规划的基本特点以及亲子沟通、朋友沟通与个人规划的关系。研究发现：青少年对未来教育的探索和投入水平高于未来职业和婚姻/家庭;从青少年中期到晚期,个体对不同领域的探索与投入遵循不同的发展模式;女青少年对未来教育的投入更多,而男青少年对未来婚姻/家庭的探索和投入更多;城市青少年对未来教育的探索和投入更多,而农村青少年对未来婚姻/家庭的投入更多。亲子沟通对中晚期青少年成就领域的规划具有较大影响,且影响大于朋友沟通,而朋友沟通对青少年未来婚姻/家庭规划的影响更大     

Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) and capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) remember future responses in a computerized task

Planning is an important aspect of many daily activities for humans. Planning involves forming a strategy in anticipation of a future need. However, evidence that nonhuman animals can plan for future situations is limited, particularly in relation to the many other kinds of cognitive capacities that they appear to share with humans. One critical aspect of planning is the ability to remember future responses, or what is called prospective coding. Two monkey species (Macaca mulatta and Cebus apella) performed a series of computerized tasks that required encoding a future response at the outset of each trial. Monkeys of both species showed competence in all tests that were given, providing evidence that they anticipated future responses and that they appropriately engaged in those responses when the time was right for such responses. In addition, some tests demonstrated that monkeys even remembered future responses that were not as presently motivating as were other aspects of the task environment. These results indicated that monkeys could anticipate future responses and retain and implement those responses when appropriate.     

中学生时间洞察力特质与健康行为选择内隐偏好：未来情景性思维的作用

本研究采用经典内隐联想测验任务,研究了现在享乐、现在宿命和未来三种时间洞察力特质中学生的健康行为选择内隐偏好以及未来情景性思维在时间洞察力类型与健康行为选择内隐偏好中的调节作用。结果发现：未来特质中学生的健康行为选择内隐偏好高于现在享乐和现在宿命特质中学生;未来情景性思维水平在中学生时间洞察力类型与健康行为选择内隐偏好的关系中起调节作用,即未来情景性思维显著提高现在享乐和未来特质中学生的健康行为选择内隐偏好,而对现在宿命特质的作用不显著。本研究的发现表明未来时间洞察力特质是中学生选择健康行为的积极因素;未来情景性思维能促进现在享乐和未来时间洞察力特质中学生的健康行为选择内隐偏好。     

When values matter: Expressing values in behavioral intentions for the near vs. distant future

It was predicted that because of their abstract nature, values will have greater impact on how individuals plan their distant future than their near future. Experiments 1 and 2 found that values better predict behavioral intentions for distant future situations than near future situations. Experiment 3 found that whereas high-level values predict behavioral intentions for more distant future situations, low-level feasibility considerations predict behavioral intentions for more proximate situation. Finally, Experiment 4 found that the temporal changes in the relationship between values and behavioral intentions depended on how the behavior was construed. Higher correspondence is found when behaviors are construed on a higher level and when behavior is planned for the more distant future than when the same behavior is construed on a lower level or is planned for the more proximal future. The implications of these findings for self-consistency and value conflicts are discussed.