Interaction with a high-versus low-competence influence source in inductive reasoning

Literature on inductive reasoning shows that when testing hypotheses, people are biased toward the use of confirmatory strategies (P. C. Wason, 1960). In the present article, the authors presented 2 studies showing how people use confirmation and disconfirmation strategies during actual interaction in problem solving. Study 1 showed that participants were able to learn to use disconfirmation when confronted with a low-competence, nonthreatening partner. When the partner was high in competence (thereby threatening the participant's competence), participants used confirmation, even when the partner used disconfirmation. In Study 2, the authors aimed at generalizing the aforementioned results by exploring the hypothesis that disconfirmation stems from the possibility of diverging from norms. Participants who were confronted with the violation of a conversational norm used a high proportion of disconfirmation, whatever the source of influence. When there was no violation but there was a low-competence partner, the proportion of disconfirmation was high; when there was no violation but there was a high-competence partner, the proportion of disconfirmation was low. The authors discussed the interpersonal functions of confirmation and disconfirmation.     

A weak symmetry condition for probabilistic measures of confirmation

This paper presents a symmetry condition for probabilistic measures of confirmation which is weaker than commutativity symmetry, disconfirmation commutativity symmetry but also antisymmetry. It is based on the idea that for any value a probabilistic measure of confirmation can assign there is a corresponding case where degrees of confirmation are symmetric. It is shown that a number of prominent confirmation measures such as Carnap’s difference function, Rescher’s measure of confirmation, Gaifman’s confirmation rate and Mortimer’s inverted difference function do not satisfy this condition and instead exhibit a previously unnoticed and rather puzzling behavior in certain cases of disconfirmation. This behavior also carries over to probabilistic measures of information change, causal strength, explanatory power and coherence.     

Claiming a large slice of a small pie: asymmetric disconfirmation in negotiation

Three studies show that negotiators consistently underestimate the size of the bargaining zone in distributive negotiations (the small-pie bias) and, by implication, overestimate the share of the surplus they claim (the large-slice bias). The authors explain the results by asymmetric disconfirmation: Negotiators with initial estimates of their counterpart's reservation price that are "inside" the bargaining zone tend to behave consistently with these estimates, which become self-fulfilling, whereas negotiators with initial "outside" estimates revise their perceptions in the face of strong disconfirming evidence. Asymmetric disconfirmation can produce a population-level bias, even when initial perceptions are accurate on average. The authors suggest that asymmetric disconfirmation has implications for confirmation bias and self-fulfilling-prophecy research in social perception.     

Eliciting Intelligence Using the Scharff‐Technique: Closing in on the Confirmation/Disconfirmation‐Tactic

The current study examined interview techniques aimed at eliciting intelligence from human sources. We compared two versions of the Scharff‐technique to the Direct Approach (a combination of open and direct questions). The Scharff conditions, conceptualised into four tactics, differed only with respect to the ‘confirmation/disconfirmation‐tactic’. The participants (N = 90) received background information and took the role as a source in a phone interview. They were instructed to strike a balance between not revealing too little and too much information. As predicted, the Scharff‐technique resulted in more new information than the Direct Approach. Importantly, the sources interviewed by the Scharff‐technique perceived that they had revealed less new information than they objectively did, whereas the sources interviewed by the Direct Approach perceived that they had revealed more new information than they objectively did. Furthermore, the interviewer's information objectives were better masked with the confirmation‐tactic than with the disconfirmation‐tactic. The results highlight the Scharff‐technique as a promising human intelligence gathering technique. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Teaching suffering: The testimonial-commentary method

Attempts to define professionalism and humanism suggest that qualities such as compliance to values, patient access, doctor-patient relationship, demeanor, professional management, personal awareness, and motivation are prominent thematic components. In this communication, we present a method for instruction in the values of humanism that may help to overcome the "curricular inertia that plagues medical education." Our approach is structured around a technique of testimonial-commentary as a novel approach to teaching humanism that does not rely upon the traditional role-modeling format. To develop effective medical school curricula for teaching humanism, we cannot rely upon the textbooks of normal and abnormal human anatomy and physiology. We must delve into the "unscientific" realms of human identity ranging from sensuality to brutality: self-preservation to sacrifice. Underneath it all, we must acknowledge that there are the ties that bind us together as people. The Seminar on Human Suffering challenges medical school educators to work with the community at large to insure that physicians will be able to serve those that seek their counsel.     

Not all stereotypic biases are created equal: evidence for a stereotype-disconfirming bias

Stereotype-confirming biases are well documented in the social psychological literature. However, motivations to disconfirm social stereotypes may be more influential for unprejudiced individuals. Three experiments are presented that test the hypothesis that extremely unprejudiced people exhibit a bias toward stereotype disconfirmation. Experiment 1 investigates stereotype disconfirmation in information-seeking preferences. Experiments 2 and 3 explore attributional strategies for stereotype disconfirmation. In all experiments, unprejudiced participants respond in ways reflecting a motivation to disconfirm social stereotypes. Implications for stereotype change and stereotypic influences on judgment and behavior are discussed.     

Theory and data interactions of the scientific mind: evidence from the molecular and the cognitive laboratory.

A number of researchers and scholars have stressed the importance of disconfirmation in the quest for the development of scientific knowledge (e.g., Popper, 1959). Paradoxically, studies examining human reasoning in the laboratory have typically found that people display a confirmation bias in that they are more likely to seek out and attend to data consistent rather than data inconsistent with their initial theory (Wason, 1968). We examine the strategies that scientists and students use to evaluate data that are either consistent or inconsistent with their expectations. First, we present findings from scientists reasoning "live" in their laboratory meetings. We show that scientists often show an initial reluctance to consider inconsistent data as "real." However, this initial reluctance is often overcome with repeated observations of the inconsistent data such that they modify their theories to account for the new data. We further examine these issues in a controlled scientific causal thinking simulation specifically developed to examine the reasoning strategies we observed in the natural scientific environment. Like the scientists, we found that participants in our simulation initially displayed a propensity to discount data inconsistent with a theory provided. However, with repeated observations of the inconsistent data, the students, like the scientists, began to see the once anomalous data as "real" and the initial bias to discount that data was significantly diminished.     

Motivation in Personal Construct Theory: A Conceptual Critique

Kelly's attempt to derive apparently motiwtional phenomena (hostility, guilt, etc.) solely from the confirmation or disconfirmation of personal constructs cannot adequately explain such phenomena. His account of hostility assumes that some beliefs are so resistant to change that the person seeks to compel confirmation of them; however, this resistance is incompatible with Kelly's own Choice Corollary. Anxiety is said to derive from the fact that disconfirmation would leave one's world in chaos, but “chaos” is shown to be an illogical concept. Humor, in turn, cannot be explained just by cognitive incongruity, since incongruity may as well lead to anxiety or hostility. Finally, guilt cannot be explained without reference to underlying fears of punishment and their rationalization in terms of supposedly objective moral concepts. Nevertheless, Kelly's Repertory Grid technique, supplemented by laddering, may be useful in indicating primary needs, moral convictions, and sources of anxiety.     

Changes in the marital relationship after the first baby is born: predicting the impact of expectancy disconfirmation.

A longitudinal study of 50 couples during the transition to first parenthood examined how failure to confirm expectations regarding the sharing of child-care and housekeeping responsibilities influenced postpartum reports of marital satisfaction. On the basis of recent theories of expectancy confirmation processes, 5 variables representing strength and importance were identified as possible moderators. As predicted, disconfirmation of stronger and more important expectations generally led to more negative reports about the marriage. Surprisingly, some subsets of wives showed opposite reactions; less negative feelings when they were doing more than they expected. These findings were interpreted in terms of personal and role traditionality influencing the valence of the reactions to expectancy disconfirmation.     

Realism of confidence in obsessive-compulsive checkers

The study examined whether obsessive-compulsive (OC) checkers have reduced confidence in their knowledge. OC checkers were compared with panic disorder (PD) patients and nonpatient controls using a calibration-of-knowledge procedure. Participants completed a general knowledge questionnaire, rated their confidence in each answer, and estimated the total number of correct answers. These responses were converted to 2 measures of confidence relative to performance--over/underconfidence and over/underestimation. OC checkers had lower scores than nonpatients did on both measures, whereas the PD patients did not differ from either group. For the OC checkers, relative confidence was inversely related to the severity of obsessions. The authors speculate that confidence may depend on a confirmation bias in testing hypotheses and that the reduced confidence in OC checkers may reflect a disconfirmation bias in this population.     

Expectation-based and data-based illusory correlation: the effects of confirming versus disconfirming evidence

The present study (n=154) examines the effects of expectations and stimulus information on the perception of illusory correlation. There have been few studies attempting to integrate expectation-based and data- (distinctiveness-) based processes. These studies suggest that data-based illusory correlation can be overruled by prior expectations, but it is not clear whether this is a consequence of a confirmation bias. In the present study, where participants were not exposed to the specific stimulus information, expectation was manipulated by stating that group B behaved more negatively than group A. Moreover, participants were provided with information contained in a statement-rating task that allowed for the confirmation and disconfirmation of the prior expectations. Participants rated the desirability of these behaviours and also performed the standard illusory correlation tasks. Based on self-categorization theory and Alloy and Tabachnik (1984), we predicted that in the absence of prior expectations, completing the rating task before the illusory correlation tasks would produce stronger illusory correlation than the reverse order. However, in the presence of prior expectations we expected the rating task to undermine illusory correlation, because the information obtained in this task tends to disconfirm prior expectations. Results support the predicted interaction between task order and expectation. We discuss some implications for research on confirmation bias.     

The reinstatement of dissonance and psychological discomfort following failed affirmations

The research in this article examined the consequences of a failed attempt to reduce dissonance through a self‐affirmation strategy. It was hypothesized that disconfirming participants' affirmations would reinstate psychological discomfort and dissonance motivation. In Experiment 1, high‐dissonance participants who affirmed on a self‐relevant value scale and received disconforming feedback about their affirmations expressed greater psychological discomfort (Elliot & Devine, 1994) than either affirmation‐only participants or low‐dissonance/affirmation disconformed participants. In Experiment 2, disconfirmation of an affirmation resulted in increased attitude change. The results of both experiments suggested that a failed attempt to reduce dissonance reinstates psychological discomfort and dissonance motivation. We discuss how the reduction of psychological discomfort may play a role in the success of affirmations in reducing dissonance‐produced attitude change. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eliminating national stereotypes: Direct versus indirect disconfirmation of beliefs in covariation

Two modes of disconfirmation of national stereotypes were compared. It was hypo-thesized that stereotypes should be revised either by stereotype-inconsistent cases from the primary target (i.e., direct disconfirmation) or by instances which belong to an alternative target but possess features stereotypic of the primary target (indirect disconfirmation). It was further predicted that politically liberal individuals would show greater change in their national stereotypes than conservatives. Two experiments were conducted in which the salience of directly and indirectly disconfirming information regarding different nations was manipulated. The results indicated that indirect disconfirmation generally had as much impact as direct disconfirmation, but that the effects were particularly visible among liberal participants. Conservatives tended to respond in a reactive manner which preserved or exaggerated their original views. A new theoretical framework for the study of stereotype change and implications for its application were discussed.     

Outcome Satisfaction in Negotiation: A Test of Expectancy Disconfirmation

The post-settlement processes that occur after negotiation outcomes are known have not been extensively studied. We propose one such process model of satisfaction using expectancy disconfirmation principles. Based on measurement of profit expectations before a bargaining session, knowledge of the profit outcomes achieved, and comparison operations between the two, analysis of data obtained from 42 negotiators provided evidence for this paradigm in negotiators′ post-settlement cognition. Expectations of one′s performance and profits attained had opposite effects on disconfirmation and later satisfaction judgments. High expectations served to decrease satisfaction and high profit outcomes had the effect of increasing satisfaction via their fully mediated effects through expectancy disconfirmation. Moreover, a negotiator′s willingness to negotiate with the partner again is shown to be primarily a function of satisfaction. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

The job satisfaction-job performance relationship: a qualitative and quantitative review

A qualitative and quantitative review of the relationship between job satisfaction and job performance is provided. The qualitative review is organized around 7 models that characterize past research on the relationship between job satisfaction and job performance. Although some models have received more support than have others, research has not provided conclusive confirmation or disconfirmation of any model, partly because of a lack of assimilation and integration in the literature. Research devoted to testing these models waned following 2 meta-analyses of the job satisfaction-job performance relationship. Because of limitations in these prior analyses and the misinterpretation of their findings, a new meta-analysis was conducted on 312 samples with a combined N of 54,417. The mean true correlation between overall job satisfaction and job performance was estimated to be .30. In light of these results and the qualitative review, an agenda for future research on the satisfaction-performance relationship is provided.     

On the Practical Significance of Hindsight Bias: The Case of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model of Consumer Satisfaction

The implications of the phenomenon of hindsight bias for the expectancy-disconfirmation model of consumer satisfaction are investigated, and the moderating effects of choice (i.e., whether or not a product is selected on the basis of one′s expectations regarding the product′s likely performance) on the incidence of hindsight bias and on the relationships between expectations, performance, disconfirmation, and satisfaction are considered. A study dealing with consumers′ satisfaction with personalized envelopes shows that perceived performance biases people′s recall of their foresight expectations in a systematic way (hindsight bias), that hindsight, rather than foresight, expectations are the more potent influence on disconfirmation and satisfaction, and that choice moderates the degree of hindsight bias and the relationships between satisfaction and its antecedents.     

Sensible reasoning in two tasks: Rule discovery and hypothesis evaluation

The hypothesis testing skills of undergraduates were measured in two tasks: the 2-4-6 rule discovery task in which students generate and assess hypotheses, and a hypothesis evaluation task, which requires only the assessment of hypotheses. The results of Experiments 1 and 2 show that the students consistently employed a disconfirmation strategy when assessing hypotheses, but employed a counterfactual inference strategy when they also were required to generate the hypotheses. The results of Experiment 3 suggest that the selection of the hypothesis testing strategy reflected a balance between the logical requirements of the task and the desirability of possible outcomes. Taken together, the findings support a more consistent picture of human rationality across tasks, and suggest alternatives to accounts of confirmation bias.     

On the meaning of statistical interactions

The problems which can arise in predicting the presence or absence of statistical interactions when a theoretical model is not set into correspondence with the experimental design model are considered in the context of a specific study of developmental differences in distractibility. It is concluded that intuitive or incomplete theoretical analyses often lead to incorrect prediction concerning statistical interactions and to spurious or ambiguous conclusions based on the confirmation or disconfirmation of those predictions and that the analysis of the relationship between a theoretical model and the experimental design model will offer considerable protection against such undesirable outcomes.     

Biased Evaluation of Abstracts Depending on Topic and Conclusion: Further Evidence of a Confirmation Bias Within Scientific Psychology

The present paper investigated whether academic psychologists show a tendency to rate the quality and appropriateness of scientific studies more favorably when results and conclusions are consistent with their own prior beliefs (i.e., confirmation bias). In an online experiment, 711 psychologists completed a questionnaire (e.g., about their belief in astrology) and evaluated research that was presented in form of a short abstract in which 40 different behaviors (e.g., alcohol consumption, willingness to share money) have been tried to be predicted. The research to be evaluated varied on three dimensions which were all manipulated between subjects: (1) the predictors of the 40 behaviors (either Big Five or astrological factors), (2) the methodological quality of the study (low, medium, high), and (3) the results and subsequent conclusion of the study (confirmation or disconfirmation of the hypotheses). Factor-analyzed scores of participants’ ratings on 8 scales, resulting in 2 factors termed quality and appropriateness, served as dependent measures. The main result of the study is a two-way interaction: Psychologists tended to evaluate results qualitatively higher when they conformed to their own prior expectations, as in this case, when astrological hypotheses were disconfirmed.     

How subtyping shapes perception: Predictable exceptions to the rule reduce attention to stereotype-associated dimensions

Two experiments examined the relation between stereotype disconfirmation and attentional processes. Using an instrumental learning-paradigm, we successfully simulated stereotype acquisition and the subsequent subtyping of disconfirming exemplars. While replicating established markers of subtyping, the present research demonstrates a hitherto neglected cognitive consequence of subtyping: Predictable stereotype disconfirmation increased attention to features that facilitated discriminating between confirming and disconfirming exemplars, and reduced attention to features associated with the original stereotype. These effects were not observed when stereotype disconfirmation was not easily predictable and, hence, subtyping proved difficult. The discussion focuses on implications for research on subtyping and stereotype change.