Causal discovery and the problem of psychological interventions

Finding causes is a central goal in psychological research. In this paper, I argue based on the interventionist approach to causal discovery that the search for psychological causes faces great obstacles. Psychological interventions are likely to be fat-handed: they change several variables simultaneously, and it is not known to what extent such interventions give leverage for causal inference. Moreover, due to problems of measurement, the degree to which an intervention was fat-handed, or more generally, what the intervention in fact did, is difficult to reliably estimate. A further complication is that the causal findings in psychology are typically made at the population level, and such findings do not allow inferences to individual-level causal relationships. I also discuss the implications of these problems for research, as well as various ways of addressing them, such as focusing more on the discovery of robust but non-causal patterns.     

The larger the cause,the larger the effect: evidence of speed judgment biases in causal scenarios

ABSTRACT

When two motions appear to be causally related, the spatiotemporal features of motions are sometimes distorted in order to increase the consistency with causal impressions. Here, in four experiments, we tested if varying the speed of an object A could affect the judged speed of an object B that appeared to be causally related to A. Participants were presented with classic launching stimuli (Experiment 1), a variant of launching stimuli in which A could move with uniformly accelerated or decelerated motion (Experiment 2), non-launching stimuli that elicited a causal impression (Experiment 3), and stimuli showing a three-object launching event (Experiment 4). Main results showed that the judged speed of B was systematically biased towards the speed of A, and moreover that the judged speed of B depended on the average speed of A, rather than on the speed of A at the moment of collision as it would be predicted by Newtonian mechanics. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that internal representations of causal events based on property transmission (for instance, impetus) can affect judgments of the low-level properties of causal scenarios.     

科学无神论在社会主义核心价值中的地位和作用

社会主义核心价值的基本内容包括富强、民主、文明、和谐、无神论思想包含在这些内容之中并起到重要作用。国强民富离不开科学技术,无神论是科学技术的理论前提和方法论起点;民主而不是神主。以人为本而不是以神为本,是无神论思想的根本体现;无神论是最初的也是最基本的文明成果;一个无神论基础上的社会和谐是真实而长久的和谐。     

科学无神论事业的发展正面临新的机遇期——在中国无神论学会2010年年会开幕式上致辞

<正>我代表中国无神论学会和中国社科院科学与无神论研究中心讲几句话。主要讲两点:第一点,可以用一句流行的话语来概括,当前,科学无神论事业的发展正面临新的机遇期。我认为,自改革开放以来,科学无神论事业发展有两     

Hypothesis testing in a rule discovery problem: when a focused procedure is effective.

We investigated individuals' ability to use negative evidence in hypothesis testing. We compared performance in two versions of Wason's (1960) rule discovery problem. In the original version, a triple of numbers--(2, 4, 6)--was presented as an example of a rule that the experimenter had in mind (i.e., "increasing numbers"). Participants had to discover the rule by proposing new triples. In the other version, the same triple was presented as a counter-example to the experimenter's rule (i.e., "decreasing numbers"). We predicted that, in both conditions, participants would form hypotheses based on the features of the triple, and test only instances of the hypothesized rule. However, in the counter-example condition, such focused testing would invariably produce negative evidence. As a consequence, participants would be forced to revise their hypotheses. The reported results corroborated our predictions: Participants solved the counter-example version significantly better than the original problem.     

On the spontaneous discovery of a mathematical relation during problem solving

People spontaneously discover new representations during problem solving. Discovery of a mathematical representation is of special interest, because it shows that the underlying structure of the problem has been extracted. In the current study, participants solved gear-system problems as part of a game. Although none of the participants initially used a mathematical representation, many discovered a parity-based, mathematical strategy during problem solving. Two accounts of the spontaneous discovery of mathematical strategies were tested. According to the automatic schema abstraction hypothesis, experience with multiple, unique problem exemplars facilitates extraction of the parity relation. According to the comparison-based abstraction hypothesis, explicitly comparing gear pathways that have different number, but the same parity, should result in extraction of parity. An event history analysis showed that accumulation of experiences with different-number, same-parity comparisons predicted discovery of parity; accumulation of unique exemplars did not. Results suggest that comparison-based abstraction processes can lead to the discovery of a mathematical relation.     

The situation

A formulation for the explanation of behavior is needed to guide the work of the applied psychologist whose first task is to explain behavior. It can also serve as a coordinating framework for the basic research that centers around each of psychology's many constructs. This paper puts forward the notion that the appropriate framework reflects the intersection of numerous person and environment systems; in other words, that it is found in the structure of a situation. Continuity within the science of psychology is promoted if an appropriate structure is found in the classic situations of the experimental laboratory. A prototypical situation that is based on the major paradigms of instrumental learning is described. It has already shown considerable utility in organizing the investigation of behavioral determinants in a real-world setting, and its ability to clarify interrelationships among psychology's constructs also looks promising.Thanks are due to C. Cofer, J. Keenan, E. Mannucci, and M. Nadien for their helpful comments on a draft of this paper.