条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。     

关于情绪与推理的理论与实验研究进展

人们普遍认为情绪会影响推理活动,但长期以来缺乏实证研究的证据。文章总结近年来有关情绪对推理影响研究的实验证据,围绕情绪的两方面因素即情绪状态与情绪信息是否影响逻辑推理的问题,对情绪与推理的关系进行探讨。简要介绍了情绪与推理的理论假设以及其实验范式,主要介绍情绪与推理研究的新进展。     

有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。     

条件推理与概率判断

选取6个具体内容的条件命题和1个纯形式的条件命题作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,深入探讨了条件推理的认知加工机制。结果发现,大学生被试对四种推理形式的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率值成正比,条件推理似乎是一种基于概率判断的直觉而高效的认知加工过程,进一步证实了Oaksford（2000）以及Evans（2003）等人的观点。     

内隐推理的实验研究

采用加工分离程序和多重分离程序,以瑞文高级推理测验为实验材料,对内隐推理进行了实验研究。实验1对包含测验与排除测验中正确猜测的期望概率进行了估计;实验2采用公式P1=Pc∪PA∪R1和PE=PC^－∩(PA∪RE)对外显推理和内隐推理的贡献进行了计算。结果发现存在显著的外显推理和内隐推理效应。     

心理实验中再认指标的发展

记忆中的再认研究已有百年历史。在行为主义高涨时期它受到冷落,当认知主义再度兴盛时,它又被广泛使用。自从1960年以来,再认记忆研究在内容和技术的广度和深度上,都是早期的这类研究所不能相比的。分析再认指标以提高再认指标的精确性和可靠性在理论上和实践上均有重要价值。     

推理中心理模型理论的研究与发展

心理模型理论是推理研究中最有影响的理论之一,理论体系完整地解释了推理的进行,认为个体推理要经历理解、描述、有效检验三个阶段。心理模型理论对推理做了大量预测,假设单模型问题比多模型问题容易、系统错误与第一个前提模型有关、知识影响推理过程,并检验了预测的合理性。近十几年来,心理模型理论在推理各个领域中均得到发展,包括对推理在大脑中编码的研究,对元推理的研究及可能性推理等方面。     

条件推理的条件概率模型述评

该文从理论模型和实验范式两个方面对Oaksford等人提出的条件推理概率模型作了综合评述,并充分肯定该模型将演绎推理与归纳推理结合起来进行研究对推理心理学的发展所作出的重要贡献。     

心理距离对自发特质推理的影响

采用错误再认范式,考察了心理距离是否影响个体对他人行为的自发特质推理。实验1采用2（配对类型：图片-可推测的特质词、图片-不可推测的特质词）× 2（空间距离：近、远）的混合设计,要求被试判断特质词是否在前面的行为句中出现过,以探讨自发特质推理形成情况。结果表明,与近空间距离相比,被试对远空间心理距离的行为主体产生了更多的自发特质推理。实验2采用2（配对类型：图片-可推测的特质词、图片-不可推测的特质词）× 2（时间距离：近、远）的混合设计,被试反应与实验1相同。结果发现,与近时间心理距离相比,被试对远时间心理距离的行为主体产生了更多的自发特质推理。实验结果提示远心理距离比近心理距离更利于自发特质推理,并在解释水平理论的框架内对结果进行了讨论。     

范畴三段论推理中信念偏差效应的实验研究

本研究利用三段论评价任务,分析了已有信念与三段论逻辑状态间的交互影响,探讨了三段论推理判断中信念偏差的存在与作用机制,同时从信念偏差角度对心理模型理论进行了初步验证。结果发现：1．范畴三段论推理的逻辑判断过程中存在信念偏差效应;2．信念偏差效应以逻辑状态与结论可信性交互作用的方式存在;3当逻辑结果与信念相一致时,信念会促进逻辑反应,反之则妨碍逻辑反应;4．信念偏差效应对逻辑有效、结论不可信的单模型三段论问题影响最大,而对逻辑有效、结论不可信的多模型三段论问题相对影响最小。     

Development and Validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale

Scientific findings and innovations play an important role in a range of decisions faced by nonscientists, yet little is known about the skills that nonscientists need in order to read and evaluate scientific evidence. Drawing on research in public understanding of science, cognitive developmental psychology, and behavioral decision research, we develop an individual difference measure of scientific reasoning skills, defined as the skills needed to evaluate scientific findings in terms of the factors that determine their quality. We present the results of three studies assessing its psychometric validity. Our results indicate that the Scientific Reasoning Scale (SRS) is internally consistent and distinct from extant measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores are more likely to have beliefs consistent with the scientific consensus on potentially contentious issues, above and beyond education, political and religious beliefs, and scores on two widely used measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores also had better performance on a task requiring them to analyze scientific information. Our results suggest that the SRS provides a theoretically informed contribution to decoding lay responses to scientific results and controversies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

因果条件中儿童社会信息推理的发展

采用因果条件性逻辑推理研究的一般模式,研究了儿童社会信息因果推理发展状况。实验结果表明：(1)儿童社会信息推理能力呈年级性递增。(2)社会信息的内容会影响儿童社会信息推理的能力。(3)儿童四种逻辑形式推理能力之间的差异显著．AC、DA在年级水平上差异都十分显著,但MP和MT在年级水平上差异不显著,儿童在各个年级四种推理能力之间的差异都显著,确定型和非确定型逻辑推理能力之间的差异显著。(4)逻辑形式的难度、儿童的年龄影响儿童合理化解释的类型。     

Ranking Theory and Conditional Reasoning

Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's (2013) ranking theoretic approach to conditionals.     

Future of Psychometrics: Ask What Psychometrics Can Do for Psychology

I address two issues that were inspired by my work on the Dutch Committee on Tests and Testing (COTAN). The first issue is the understanding of problems test constructors and researchers using tests have of psychometric knowledge. I argue that this understanding is important for a field, like psychometrics, for which the dissemination of psychometric knowledge among test constructors and researchers in general is highly important. The second issue concerns the identification of psychometric research topics that are relevant for test constructors and test users but in my view do not receive enough attention in psychometrics. I discuss the influence of test length on decision quality in personnel selection and quality of difference scores in therapy assessment, and theory development in test construction and validity research. I also briefly mention the issue of whether particular attributes are continuous or discrete.     

心理测量本身及其在应用中的问题

从三个维度对心理测量进行了探讨：由理论基础上的缺陷所导致的局限性、在应用中所带来的问题以及由于运用统计相关分析所带来的弊端。最后对克服这些局限性的其它方法做简单介绍。     

Abstract reasoning and the interpretation of basic conditionals

Studies examining the interpretation that is given to if–then statementstypically use what are referred to as basic conditionals, which give contextless relations between two unrelated concrete terms (If the ball is blue, then the shape is square). However, there is some evidence that basic conditionals require a more abstract form of representation. In order to examine this, we presented participants with truth-table tasks involving either basic conditionals or conditionals referring to imaginary categories (If it is a bori, then it has red wings), and standard conditional inference tasks with abstract and familiar premises. As expected, fewer typical defective conditional interpretations were given to basic conditionals. In addition, partial correlations showed a unique relationship between the interpretation of basic conditionals and abstract inferential reasoning. Results suggest that people process basic conditionals as a form of abstract reasoning, and that the interpretation of conditionals must consider the semantic context.     

关系推理中信念偏差效应的研究

采用结论评估范式,考察时向和空间关系推理中信念偏差效应的表现形式,以及心理模型理论对关系推理中信念偏差效应的解释力。研究结果表明,关系推理中信念偏差效应的表现形式与三段论有所不同,不论是时间推理还是空间推理中都存在信念主效应,但没有发现信念与逻辑的交互作用;心理模型理论不能对关系推理中信念偏差效应作出合理解释。