跨期选择的认知机制与神经基础

跨期选择是指个体对发生在不同时间的成本与收益进行权衡的决策过程。跨期选择的计算模型从经济学的角度用数学模型来建构时间折扣函数,而认知成分模型则从心理学的角度来研究跨期选择中的心理效应与认知成分。跨期选择的神经基础有三种不同的研究取向：双机制加工取向、单机制加工取向、自我控制取向。未来研究应该在跨期选择的认知机制、神经通路及运行机制、跨期选择的应用,以及从进化的角度对人与动物的跨期选择行为进行更深入的研究。     

时间方向等因素影响跨期决策的实验研究

跨期决策中主要存在三个价值不对等现象:时间折扣、符号效应和过去、未来的价值不对等,上述不对等现象涉及到时间距离、时间方向和损益情境三个主要评价维度。本研究旨在通过实验考察时间距离、时间方向和损益情境在跨期决策中的相互作用。通过设置获益(中奖)和损失(罚款)的假想场景,要求被试对不同时间距离、不同时间方向上的决策任务作出判断,根据双曲模型,计算时间折扣率。结果,时间距离影响未来方向决策,而不影响过去方向决策;相同时间距离条件下,未来方向折扣率显著大于过去方向折扣率;损失折扣率大于获益折扣率,得到"反符号效应"。     

时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

风险条件下的跨期选择

跨期选择是指对发生在未来不同时间点上的结果做出权衡的决策过程。由于大部分跨期选择的情景都处于某种风险之中, 把风险变量纳入跨期选择的研究中则至为关键。针对以往研究在研究范围、理论构建、现实意义等诸方面的不足, 本研究拟采用实验室实验与纸笔测验相结合的方法, 深入揭示高、中、低三种概率水平下风险对跨期选择的影响特征, 探索其发生的机制、各类经典效应的大小。在此基础上, 根据全国不同地区的大样本调查结果, 了解各地区风险条件下跨期选择的差异及其与本地宏观经济指标(如, 消费者物价指数)的关联, 进而探讨研究的现实意义。本研究期望对风险条件下的跨期选择做出系统、全面的科学探索, 并为国家相关部门制定政策提供有价值的参考。     

敬畏对跨期选择的影响：时间洞察力和时距敏感度的作用

本研究考察了情绪(敬畏、愉悦和中性)对跨期选择的影响机制,以及时距敏感度和时间洞察力在其中的作用。结果显示：(1)相比中性,敬畏情绪下个体的折扣率更大;(2)相比中性,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅更大;(3)对于未来取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率比中性条件下更大;(4)对于现在取向者,敬畏情绪下折扣率降幅比中性条件下更大。结果表明,敬畏情绪通过未来时距的敏感度影响跨期选择偏好,使个体更加偏好延迟奖赏,同时,个体的时间取向在其中起调节作用。     

佤族与汉族大学生的跨期决策：时间知觉的作用？

为探究佤族大学生的跨期决策偏好,本研究采用多领域的跨期决策任务,通过对比佤族和汉族大学生跨期决策和时间知觉特点,探讨了民族文化对不同领域延迟折扣的影响,以及时间知觉的中介作用。结果表明,金钱领域中,佤族与汉族之间的延迟折扣率无明显差异;而在健康和环境领域中,佤族延迟折扣率显著低于汉族,更偏好将来更大的收益;佤族的时间知觉显著小于汉族,并且时间知觉在民族和各领域延迟折扣之间起到了中介作用。     

适应性时间管理：死亡意识对时间知觉和跨期决策的影响

死亡意识是个体对自身死亡必然性的认识; 基于进化适应性的考量, 作者认为具有前瞻性的死亡意识作为人类特有的认知能力和个体生命史的终极坐标, 不仅可能引起恐惧感和防御反应, 更重要的是可以帮助人们做出适应性的时间管理。据此推论, 死亡意识的启动会加强人们对时间有限性的关注, 体验出更强的时间流逝感, 影响人们对时间的评估, 以及人们对不同时间点的成本与收益进行权衡而做出的跨期决策。本研究采用死亡凸显范式启动死亡意识, 通过两个实验探讨了死亡意识、时间知觉和跨期决策三者之间的关系。结果发现, 死亡意识启动使被试低估时间距离, 并表现出较低的跨期决策延迟折扣率, 从而在较小的即时获益与更大的延迟的获益之间更为偏好未来导向的选项。进一步的分析显示, 时间知觉在死亡意识和跨期决策延迟折扣率之间起到部分中介变量的作用。以上的研究结果初步揭示了死亡意识在时间管理上的适应性价值。     

资源困境中共同收益延迟的影响：时间折扣的调节效应

通过测量83名大学生的时间折扣率和不同共同收益延迟时距上的金币拿取量,以探讨资源困境中共同收益延迟对个体决策的影响及时间折扣的调节效应。结果表明：（1）金币拿取量随共同收益延迟时距的增长而增加,增加趋势和初始时间点的金币拿取量均存在显著的个体差异;（2）时间折扣率反向调节初始延迟时间点的金币拿取量,正向调节金币拿取量随延迟时距增长而增加的速率。这表明资源困境与跨期选择两个不同研究领域具有紧密联系,对当前资源保护制度的制定与实施具有一定的启发意义。     

延迟折扣的认知与神经机制:特质性与状态性研究取向

延迟折扣是指与当前或近期的获益(或损失)相比,人们总是倾向于赋予将来获益(或损失)更小的权重。为什么人们在跨期选择中会表现出冲动性行为?怎样才能让人"目光远大",而避免"鼠目寸光"呢?这些都是延迟折扣研究力求解决的问题。近几年,本课题组利用行为、ERP、多模态MRI等技术,从特质性和状态性研究角度出发,系统考察延迟折扣的影响因素、认知机制和神经基础。首先,从特质性角度,考察了跨期选择中价值评估和自我控制加工的神经分离、立即选项与延迟选项的神经表征与预测、调控方式对延迟折扣作用的神经机制;其次,从状态性角度,考察了框架效应、贫富线索等对延迟折扣的影响以及预期情绪对延迟折扣的调控机理。最后,根据特质性因素(控制能力、时间感知、识解水平等)和状态性因素(框架效应、贫富线索、预期情绪等)对延迟折扣的影响及调控机制,提出了延迟折扣可塑性的研究思路。本课题组的研究对于延迟折扣认知与神经机制的理论建构具有重要的科学价值,对于延迟折扣的可塑性及临床应用也有重要的指导意义。     

压力使人短视?来自跨期决策的证据

跨期决策是指个体对不同时间点上的收益或损失进行的权衡和选择。本研究探讨了日常慢性压力知觉和实验室急性压力操作对跨期决策的影响。研究一通过问卷调查发现高压力感与跨期决策中的短期偏好有关;研究二采用社会压力测试范式(TSST)在实验室进行压力操作,同样发现压力组被试比控制组更偏好"小而近"的选项。研究认为,压力使人在跨期决策中倾向于短视选择,可能与双系统激活模式和自我控制资源损耗有关。     

Value tradeoffs propel and inhibit behavior: Validating the 19 refined values in four countries

We assess the predictive and discriminant validity of the basic values in the refined Schwartz value theory by examining how value tradeoffs predict behavior in Italy, Poland, Russia, and the USA. One thousand eight hundred and fifty‐seven respondents reported their values and rated their own and a partner's behavior. Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis supported the distinctiveness of the 19 values and the 19 self‐rated and other‐rated behaviors. Multidimensional scaling analyses supported the circular motivational order of the 19 values. Findings affirmed the theorizing that behavior depends upon tradeoffs between values that propel and values that inhibit it. Across four countries, value importance, behavior frequency, and gender failed to moderate the strength of value–behavior relations. This raises the question of the conditions under which the widely cited assumption that normative pressure weakens value–behavior relations holds.     

保护性价值观及其对决策行为的影响

保护性价值观(protected values, PVs)是这样的一种观念:它拒绝与其他任何价值相互交易,尤其拒绝与经济价值进行交易[1]。本文对国内外有关保护性价值观及其对决策行为的影响的研究成果进行了详尽考察和评述,在此基础上,进一步提出了管理领域保护性价值观研究的设想。     

The elusive tradeoff: Speed vs accuracy in visual discrimination tasks

Theoretical models for choice reaction time and discrimination under time pressure must account for Ss’ ability to trade accuracy for increased speed. The fast guess model views these tradeoffs as different mixtures of “all-or-none” strategies, while incremental models assume they reflect different degrees of thoroughness in processing the stimulus. Three experiments sought tradeoffs for difficult visual discriminations, using explicit payoffs to control and manipulate pressures for speed and accuracy. Although guessing was pervasive, the simple fast guess model could be rejected; Experiments II and III obtained tradeoffs even when fast guesses were purged from Ss’ data. Tradeoff functions fit by several formulations revealed: (1) slower rates of increase in accuracy for more similar stimuli, and (2) substantial “dead times” (80–100 msec slower than detection times) before discrimination responses could exceed chance accuracy. Errors were sometimes faster and sometimes slower than correct responses (depending on S’s speed-accuracy trade); the latter effect may reflect a ceiling on S’s achievable accuracy. A final discussion examines implications of the results for models of discrimination under time pressure; it suggests modifications in present models, focusing on the random walk model, and describes an alternative “deadline” model.     

跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效：亚非欧美大洋洲18国跨国研究

跨期选择是对不同时间点的得失的权衡与选择。伊索寓言《蚂蚁和蚱蜢》假借群居型昆虫的跨期选择偏爱暗喻投资未来的慢策略比只顾眼前的快策略更利于生存。用跨期选择领域通用的语言解读这一寓言便是：选择大而迟选项的蚂蚁比选择小而早选项的蚱蜢更可能扛过严冬而生存下来。为了探索何种跨期选择策略更有助于我们扛过疫情,本研究调查了亚非欧美大洋洲这5大洲18个国家共计26355名受测者对混合得失双结果的跨期选择偏爱,测量了人们平时和疫时跨期选择偏爱的变易程度(2类变易的程度指标),以及人们自评的扛疫成效。跨文化比较结果的主要发现是：不同通货的选择变易程度(指标1)和不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)能联合预测中国/新加坡文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)也可以单独预测印度/马来西亚/菲律宾/尼日利亚文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;这2类选择偏爱变易的程度指标不能预测其他文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效(或者预测方向和假设相反)。基于易经“穷则变,变则通”的要旨和跨国比较的发现,我们认为：面临历史危机时善于变通的特长抑或成就了中华民族特有的竞争优势;在应对危机时,与中国文化距离越相近的国家或民族抑或也能...     

The meaning of indifference in choice behavior: Asymmetries in adjustments embodied in matching

Measuring and assessing people’s preferences is an intricate task that can be realized by different methods. Evidently, the different methods do not necessarily yield consistent results. In the present paper we examine the matching procedure and demonstrate inconsistencies within the method itself. It is shown that the inconsistencies stem from: (1) asymmetry in upward and downward matching (i.e., matching options by increasing or lowering values do not yield the same tradeoffs) and (2) participants’ tendency to match (adjust) the options such that they become more similar, eventually facilitating the choice process. Matching is the most straightforward method of eliciting indifference. Hence, the observed inconsistencies, encapsulated in the matching procedure, have direct implications for the construction of indifference curves (equal-utility contours) that are examined in the final section.     

The Effect of Decision Strategy on Deciding to Defer Choice

Recent research has examined consumer decision making when the option of not choosing any of the alternatives is also provided. The findings from this research suggest that the decision to defer choice is sensitive to the uncertainty of choosing the most preferred option from the set of alternatives provided. Building on this research, the author tests whether the decision to defer choice is also influenced by task variables that influence decision uncertainty. In the first experiment, this proposition is tested for choice problems in which information on three relatively equally attractive alternatives is presented either sequentially or simultaneously. As predicted, the preference for the defer-choice option was greater when the three alternatives were presented simultaneously. A second study forced subjects into using one of four decision strategies in order to choose between two non-dominated alternatives. The preference for the no-choice option was found to be higher when the rule required explicit attribute tradeoffs and lower when it simplified choice. These results suggest that choice uncertainty is influenced by the decision strategy used to determine the preference among alternatives. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the results for marketers' communication strategies.     

Speed-accuracy tradeoff functions in choice reaction time: Experimental designs and computational procedures

The existence of tradeoffs between speed and accuracy is an important interpretative problem in choice reaction time (RT) experiments. A recently suggested solution to this problem is the use of complete speed-accuracy tradeoff functions as the primary dependent variable in choice RT ,experiments instead of a single mean RT and error rate. This paper reviews and compares existing procedures for generating empirical speed-accuracy tradeoff, functions for use as dependent variables in choice RT experiments. Two major types of tradeoff function are identified, and their experimental designs and computational procedures are discussed and evaluated. Systematic disparities are demonstrated between the two tradeoff functions in both empirical and computer-simulated data. Although all existing procedures for generating speed-accuracy tradeoff functions involve empirically untested assumptions, one procedure requires less stringent assumptions and is less sensitive to sources of experimental and statistical error. This procedure involves plotting accuracy against RT over a set of experimental conditions in which subjects’ criteria for speed vs. accuracy are systematically varied.     

Parent-offspring conflict over mating: Testing the tradeoffs hypothesis

The difference in genetic relatedness between parents and offspring results into traits such as beauty being more beneficial in a spouse than in an in-law. As a consequence, mate and in-law preferences do not overlap, and each party tends to prefer more the traits that give it more benefits. This paper tests the hypothesis that this divergence in preferences interacts with the tradeoffs nature of mating to give rise to parent-offspring conflict over mating. In particular, using a design where mate choice is constrained by a budget, three hypotheses are tested: First, asymmetries between in-law and mate preferences result in asymmetrical compromises in the choice of an in-law and a spouse. Second, the hypothesis is tested that when choice is constrained, disagreement spreads to traits where there is no divergence between in-law and mate preferences. Finally, it is hypothesized that there is a negative relationship between mate value and parent-offspring conflict over mating. Evidence from two independent studies in two different countries provides support for all three hypotheses.     

The structure of tradeoffs in model building

Despite their best efforts, scientists may be unable to construct models that simultaneously exemplify every theoretical virtue. One explanation for this is the existence of tradeoffs: relationships of attenuation that constrain the extent to which models can have such desirable qualities. In this paper, we characterize three types of tradeoffs theorists may confront. These characterizations are then used to examine the relationships between parameter precision and two types of generality. We show that several of these relationships exhibit tradeoffs and discuss what consequences those tradeoffs have for theoretical practice. John Matthewson and Michael Weisberg have contributed equally to this paper.     

On the limits of Kagan’s impulsive reflective distinction

A logical analysis is made of the Matching Familiar Figures (MFF) Test on the basis of which children have been classified as "impulsive" or "reflective." The reflective strategy is implicitly preferred to the impulsive because the reflective child makes fewer errors though generally taking longer to make his first response. We show that the test allows the choice of a number of "game plans" and speed-accuracy tradeoffs which in practice may not be very different. Error rates may not indicate perceptual sensitivity, in any case, since sensitivity and response factors may be confounded in the error rate. Using a visual running-memory-span task to avoid the inherent difficulties of the MFF test, we found that children previously classified on the basis of that test as impulsive or reflective did not differ in recognition accuracy but did differ in response bias and response latency. Accuracy and bias are estimated by way of Luce's choice theory (Luce, 1963), and the results are discussed in those terms.