认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。     

追踪研究中缺失数据处理方法及应用现状分析

追踪研究中普遍存在缺失数据, 缺失数据处理方法的选择影响统计推断的精度及研究结果的有效性。首先, 阐述缺失机制及判断方法, 比较追踪研究中主要的缺失数据处理方法的特点、及实际应用中的缺失处理方法的选择和软件实现。其次, 对国内心理学中92篇追踪研究文献进行分析, 发现有59篇(64.13%)报告不同程度缺失, 其中仅39篇报告了处理方法且均为删除法。未来研究应深入探讨现有缺失数据处理方法的有效性, 进一步规范应用研究中缺失数据的处理。     

CAT中能力参数估计方法的改进:R-MLE估计法

本文对CAT中能力估计的常用方法——最大似然估计法(MLE)进行改进,研究中结合EAP方法提出了改进的MLE法(R-MLE)。Monte Carlo模拟研究发现:不论是在定长CAT还是非定长CAT中,不论是在1PL模型下还是在2PL或3PL模型中,不论是在何种CAT题库结构下,R-MLE法较传统的MLE法具有更佳的估计精度及更有效的测验效率;R-MLE法不仅可以提高CAT的能力估计精度还可以进一步改善CAT测试的效率,具有一定的应用前景。     

2PLM下缺失数据处理方法及其比较

项目反应理论(IRT)是用于客观测量的现代教育与心理测量理论之一,广泛用于缺失数据十分常见的大尺度测验分析。IRT中两参数逻辑斯蒂克模型(2PLM)下仅有完全随机缺失机制下缺失反应和缺失能力处理的EM算法。本研究推导2PLM下缺失反应忽略的EM 算法,并提出随机缺失机制下缺失反应和缺失能力处理的EM算法和考虑能力估计和作答反应不确定性的多重借补法。研究显示：在各种缺失机制、缺失比例和测验设计下,缺失反应忽略的EM算法和多重借补法表现理想。     

贝叶斯结构方程模型及其研究现状

在心理学研究中结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)被广泛用于检验潜变量间的因果效应, 其估计方法有频率学方法(如, 极大似然估计)和贝叶斯方法两类。近年来由于贝叶斯统计的流行及其在结构方程建模中易于处理小样本、缺失数据及复杂模型等方面的优势, 贝叶斯结构方程模型发展迅速, 但其在国内心理学领域的应用不足。主要介绍了贝叶斯结构方程模型的方法基础和优良特性, 及几类常用的贝叶斯结构方程模型及其应用现状, 旨在为应用研究者介绍新的研究工具。     

计划缺失设计——通过有意缺失让研究更高效

缺失值是社会科学研究中非常普遍的现象。全息极大似然估计和多重插补是目前处理缺失值最有效的方法。计划缺失设计利用特殊的实验设计有意产生缺失值, 再用现代的缺失值处理方法来完成统计分析, 获得无偏的统计结果。计划缺失设计可用于横断面调查减少(或增加)问卷长度和纵向调查减少测量次数, 也可用于提高测量有效性。常用的计划缺失设计有三式设计和两种方法测量。     

问卷调查中被试不认真作答的控制与识别

问卷调查是心理与教育领域十分常见的数据收集方法, 而被试的不认真作答可能导致问卷数据失真。回顾已有研究发现:(a)不认真作答可以从外在作答模式和内在产生原因两个方向进行定义; (b)不认真作答的常见事前控制方法主要包括降低任务难度以及提高被试作答动机两大类; (c)事后识别方法主要包括嵌入识别量表、作答模式识别、反应时识别三大类。今后的研究中应基于作答机制的研究优化与开发控制方法, 检验作答识别方法的跨情境适用性并开发新方法, 并对局部不认真的识别与处理进行更深入的探讨。     

认知诊断测评中缺失数据的处理：随机森林阈值插补法

认知诊断测评中缺失数据的处理是理论和实际应用者非常关注的研究主题。借鉴随机森林插补法(RFI)不依赖于缺失机制假设的特点,对已有的RFI方法进行改进,提出采用个人拟合指标(RCI)确定插补阈值的新方法:随机森林阈值插补方法(RFTI)。模拟研究表明,RFTI在插补正确率上明显高于RFI方法;与RFI和EM方法相比,RFTI在被试属性模式判准率和边际判准率上表现出明显优势,尤其是非随机缺失和混合缺失机制,以及缺失比例较高的条件下,其优势更加明显。但对项目参数的估计, RFTI方法与EM方法相比不具有优势。     

2PL模型的两种马尔可夫蒙特卡洛缺失数据处理方法比较

马尔科夫蒙特卡洛（MCMC）是项目反应理论中处理缺失数据的一种典型方法。文章通过模拟研究比较了在不同被试人数,项目数,缺失比例下两种MCMC方法（M-H within Gibbs和DA-T Gibbs）参数估计的精确性,并结合了实证研究。研究结果表明,两种方法是有差异的,项目参数估计均受被试人数影响很大,受缺失比例影响相对更小。在样本较大缺失比例较小时,M-H within Gibbs参数估计的均方误差（RMSE）相对略小,随着样本数的减少或缺失比例的增加,DA-T Gibbs方法逐渐优于M-H within Gibbs方法     

矩阵取样设计中的似真值能力估计方法

矩阵取样是大规模教育评估中最有效的一种数据收集方式。本研究采用模拟数据考察在均衡的不完全分块（BIB）矩阵取样设计中,似真值（PV）与传统的极大似然估计（MLE）、加权极大似然估计（WLE）和贝叶斯后验期望估计（EAP）方法对学生能力总体参数估计的精确性和稳健性。结果表明,PV对总体平均数和标准差的估计最为精确和稳健;EAP倾向于低估,MLE和WLE倾向于高估,且精确性和稳健性远远不如PV。同时,总被试量对估计结果的影响很小,而每个题本中的项目数量对估计结果的影响较大。     

Audiovisual integration increases the intentional step synchronization of side-by-side walkers

When people walk side-by-side, they often synchronize their steps. To achieve this, individuals might cross-modally match audiovisual signals from the movements of the partner and kinesthetic, cutaneous, visual and auditory signals from their own movements. Because signals from different sensory systems are processed with noise and asynchronously, the challenge of the CNS is to derive the best estimate based on this conflicting information. This is currently thought to be done by a mechanism operating as a Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). The present work investigated whether audiovisual signals from the partner are integrated according to MLE in order to synchronize steps during walking. Three experiments were conducted in which the sensory cues from a walking partner were virtually simulated. In Experiment 1 seven participants were instructed to synchronize with human-sized Point Light Walkers and/or footstep sounds. Results revealed highest synchronization performance with auditory and audiovisual cues. This was quantified by the time to achieve synchronization and by synchronization variability. However, this auditory dominance effect might have been due to artifacts of the setup. Therefore, in Experiment 2 human-sized virtual mannequins were implemented. Also, audiovisual stimuli were rendered in real-time and thus were synchronous and co-localized. All four participants synchronized best with audiovisual cues. For three of the four participants results point toward their optimal integration consistent with the MLE model. Experiment 3 yielded performance decrements for all three participants when the cues were incongruent. Overall, these findings suggest that individuals might optimally integrate audiovisual cues to synchronize steps during side-by-side walking.     

基于增长模型的非随机缺失数据处理:选择模型和极大似然方法

对含有非随机缺失数据的潜变量增长模型,为了考察基于不同假设的缺失数据处理方法:极大似然(ML)方法与DiggleKenward选择模型的优劣,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,比较两种方法对模型中增长参数估计精度及其标准误估计的差异,并考虑样本量、非随机缺失比例和随机缺失比例的影响。结果表明,符合前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型的参数估计精度普遍高于ML方法;对于标准误估计值,ML方法存在一定程度的低估,得到的置信区间覆盖比率也明显低于Diggle-Kenward选择模型。     

Inferential Precision in Single-Case Time-Series Data Streams: How Well Does the EM Procedure Perform When Missing Observations Occur in Autocorrelated Data?

The case-based time-series design is a viable methodology for treatment outcome research. However, the literature has not fully addressed the problem of missing observations with such autocorrelated data streams. Mainly, to what extent do missing observations compromise inference when observations are not independent? Do the available missing data replacement procedures preserve inferential integrity? Does the extent of autocorrelation matter? We use Monte Carlo simulation modeling of a single-subject intervention study to address these questions. We find power sensitivity to be within acceptable limits across four proportions of missing observations (10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%) when missing data are replaced using the Expectation-Maximization Algorithm, more commonly known as the EM Procedure (Dempster, Laird, &; Rubin, 1977). This applies to data streams with lag-1 autocorrelation estimates under 0.80. As autocorrelation estimates approach 0.80, the replacement procedure yields an unacceptable power profile. The implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Is perceptual space inherently non-Euclidean?

It is often assumed that the space we perceive is Euclidean, although this idea has been challenged by many authors. Here we show that if spatial cues are combined as described by Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Bayesian, or equivalent models, as appears to be the case, then Euclidean geometry cannot describe our perceptual experience. Rather, our perceptual spatial structure would be better described as belonging to an arbitrarily curved Riemannian space.     

L’outil « estimateur », la ligne numérique mentale et les habiletés arithmétiques

This report presents the effects of learning study based on the Estimator program to learn the addition and subtraction operations on children selected for mathematical difficulties. The Estimator is designed to link the magnitudes of the mental number line with the verbal representations of exact arithmetic. Experiment shows that using the Estimator for five 30-minute sessions increases not only the children's arithmetic capacities but also other numerical knowledge assessed with Zareki-R. By taking account of the limits of the sample, the results are discussed in terms of (re) educational implications.     

A maximum likelihood approach to test validation with missing and censored dependent variables

A maximum likelihood approach is described for estimating the validity of a test (x) as a predictor of a criterion variable (y) when there are both missing and censoredy scores present in the data set. The missing data are due to selection on a latent variable (y _s ) which may be conditionally related toy givenx. Thus, the missing data may not be missing random. The censoring process in due to the presence of a floor or ceiling effect. The maximum likelihood estimates are constructed using the EM algorithm. The entire analysis is demonstrated in terms of hypothetical data sets.     

Missing not at random models for latent growth curve analyses

The past decade has seen a noticeable shift in missing data handling techniques that assume a missing at random (MAR) mechanism, where the propensity for missing data on an outcome is related to other analysis variables. Although MAR is often reasonable, there are situations where this assumption is unlikely to hold, leading to biased parameter estimates. One such example is a longitudinal study of substance use where participants with the highest frequency of use also have the highest likelihood of attrition, even after controlling for other correlates of missingness. There is a large body of literature on missing not at random (MNAR) analysis models for longitudinal data, particularly in the field of biostatistics. Because these methods allow for a relationship between the outcome variable and the propensity for missing data, they require a weaker assumption about the missing data mechanism. This article describes 2 classic MNAR modeling approaches for longitudinal data: the selection model and the pattern mixture model. To date, these models have been slow to migrate to the social sciences, in part because they required complicated custom computer programs. These models are now quite easy to estimate in popular structural equation modeling programs, particularly Mplus. The purpose of this article is to describe these MNAR modeling frameworks and to illustrate their application on a real data set. Despite their potential advantages, MNAR-based analyses are not without problems and also rely on untestable assumptions. This article offers practical advice for implementing and choosing among different longitudinal models.     

Tests of homogeneity of means and covariance matrices for multivariate incomplete data

Existing test statistics for assessing whether incomplete data represent a missing completely at random sample from a single population are based on a normal likelihood rationale and effectively test for homogeneity of means and covariances across missing data patterns. The likelihood approach cannot be implemented adequately if a pattern of missing data contains very few subjects. A generalized least squares rationale is used to develop parallel tests that are expected to be more stable in small samples. Three factors were varied for a simulation: number of variables, percent missing completely at random, and sample size. One thousand data sets were simulated for each condition. The generalized least squares test of homogeneity of means performed close to an ideal Type I error rate for most of the conditions. The generalized least squares test of homogeneity of covariance matrices and a combined test performed quite well also.Preliminary results on this research were presented at the 1999 Western Psychological Association convention, Irvine, CA, and in the UCLA Statistics Preprint No. 265 (http://www.stat.ucla.edu). The assistance of Ke-Hai Yuan and several anonymous reviewers is gratefully acknowledged.     

Causal status as a determinant of feature centrality

One of the major problems in categorization research is the lack of systematic ways of constraining feature weights. We propose one method of operationalizing feature centrality, a causal status hypothesis which states that a cause feature is judged to be more central than its effect feature in categorization. In Experiment 1, participants learned a novel category with three characteristic features that were causally related into a single causal chain and judged the likelihood that new objects belong to the category. Likelihood ratings for items missing the most fundamental cause were lower than those for items missing the intermediate cause, which in turn were lower than those for items missing the terminal effect. The causal status effect was also obtained in goodness-of-exemplar judgments (Experiment 2) and in free-sorting tasks (Experiment 3), but it was weaker in similarity judgments than in categorization judgments (Experiment 4). Experiment 5 shows that the size of the causal status effect is moderated by plausibility of causal relations, and Experiment 6 shows that effect features can be useful in retrieving information about unknown causes. We discuss the scope of the causal status effect and its implications for categorization research.