Sympathetic magic and perceptions of randomness: The hot hand versus the gambler's fallacy

The gambler's fallacy and hot hand were studied in predictions about outcomes of coin tosses. A critical trial occurred when participants made predictions after a “run” of four heads or tails. Participants' attention was manipulated to focus on the person flipping the coin, the coin, or neither (control group) as a possible cause of the run. We also manipulated whether or not there was a change in who tossed the coin. In the control condition the standard reversal was observed (gambler's fallacy); however, when participants focused on the person, and it was that same person who conducted the run and critical coin toss, more people chose in the direction of continuation (hot hand). Directing attention to the person tossing the run seemed to prompt participants to behave as if that individual was “hot” in terms of getting a specific outcome (e.g., heads), as if by sympathetic magic, thus eliminating the gambler's fallacy.     

Gestalt approach to family therapy

Abstract

Gestalt psychotherapy is presented as a synthesis of a number of psychological traditions. Two particular techniques are described in detail: the empty chair technique which is a strategy that focuses on the parents' internalized object relations which are played out between themselves and with their children; and the Gestalt experiment which is a strategy that focuses on the contact boundaries between family members.     

Carry on winning: The gamblers’ fallacy creates hot hand effects in online gambling

People suffering from the hot-hand fallacy unreasonably expect winning streaks to continue whereas those suffering from the gamblers’ fallacy unreasonably expect losing streaks to reverse. We took 565,915 sports bets made by 776 online gamblers in 2010 and analyzed all winning and losing streaks up to a maximum length of six. People who won were more likely to win again (apparently because they chose safer odds than before) whereas those who lost were more likely to lose again (apparently because they chose riskier odds than before). However, selection of safer odds after winning and riskier ones after losing indicates that online sports gamblers expected their luck to reverse: they suffered from the gamblers’ fallacy. By believing in the gamblers’ fallacy, they created their own hot hands.     

The demanding world of emotion: A Gestalt approach to emotion experience

Psychology is biased towards thinking of emotions as feelings rather than as an experiences of the world. But they are both. World-focused emotion experiences (WFEE) are how the world appears or is consciously perceived in one's emotion experience. For example, when happy the world may seem welcoming, or when sad the world may seem barren of possibilities. What explains these experiences? This article discusses explanations of WFEE from phenomenology and Gestalt psychology. Influenced by Lewin, I propose an “emotional demand model” of WFEE. The emotional demand character of objects (e.g. bear-to-be-run-from) is distinguished from their expressive character (e.g. angry bear). It is a mistake to think of emotion faces only as expressions—they are also demands. This distinction explains some anomalous findings in infancy and autism research. The model highlights another tool for recognizing our own emotions: noticing when we feel “demanded of” by the world, with implications for emotion regulation.     

On a fallacy attributed to tarski

The purpose of this paper is to examine some passages of Tarski‘s paper ’On the concept of logical consequence’ and to show that some recent readings of those passages are wrong. John Etchemendy has claimed that in those passages Tarski gave an argument purporting to show that the notion of logical consequence defined by him (as opposed to some pretheoretic notion of logical consequence) possesses certain modal properties. Etchemendy further claims that the argument he attributes to Tarski is fallacious. Some of Etchemendy’s critics have granted him that Tarski did give an argument purporting to show that the defined notion possesses certain modal properties ; but they have claimed that Tarski’s argument was not a fallacious one. I will show that both Etchemendy and his critics are wrong; in the relevant passages, Tarski did not offer (nor did he intend to offer) an argument that the defined notion of logical consequence possesses any modal properties     

The layers of presence: a bio-cultural approach to understanding presence in natural and mediated environments.

This paper proposes a bio-cultural theory of presence based on four different positions related to the role and structure of presence, as follows. First, presence is a defining feature of self and it is related to the evolution of a key feature of any central nervous system: the embedding of sensory-referred properties into an internal functional space. Without the emergence of the sense of presence it is impossible for the nervous system to experience distal attribution: the referencing of our perception to an external space beyond the limits of the sensory organs themselves. Second, even if the experience of the sense of presence is a unitary feeling, conceptually it can be divided in three different layers, phylogenetically different and strictly related to the three levels of self identified by Damasio. In particular we can make conceptual distinctions between proto presence (self vs. non self), core presence (self vs. present external world), and extended presence (self relative to present external world). Third, given that each layer of presence solves a particular facet of the internal/external world separation, it is characterized by specific properties. Finally, in humans the sense of presence is a direct function of these three layers: the more they are integrated, the more we are present. In the experience of optimal presence, biologically and culturally determined cognitive processes are working in harmony--to focus all levels of the self on a significant situation in the external world, whether this is real or virtual.     

A Meadian account of social understanding: Taking a non-mentalistic approach to infant and verbal false belief understanding

Performance on false belief tasks has long been considered a key indicator of the development of social understanding in young children. We consider the enabling conditions for performing non-verbal and verbal false belief tasks as well as a typical developmental path toward false belief understanding. We argue that, in early ontogenesis, children anticipate the coordination of activity with others rather than read, probe, or reflectively engage with the psychological states of others. As linguistically mediated reflective thought emerges, children gradually become able to parse and isolate the myriad of incipient somatic, affective, and intentional responses that arise in any given moment. With reflective thought, children also begin to develop distinct and temporally coherent understandings about the minds of self and other. We provide an account of how the reflective thought that facilitates false belief understanding emerges. Our account focuses on a gradually developing refinement of social coordination and the shared perspectival understandings inherent in social coordination.     

Model building in developmental psychopathology: a pragmatic approach to understanding and intervention

Proposes model building as a pragmatic and integrative approach to developmental psychopathology. The model-building process is iterative within a program of research, cycling through the following phases of research: theory, field observation, construct definition, measurement development, construct analysis, model testing, experimental field trials, and model revision. Research on the development of and interventions for antisocial behavior is discussed as a tool for reflecting on the model-building process. The ecological framework is offered as a science-based heuristic that integrates various levels of analysis and theoretical perspectives.     

disowning our shadow: a psychoanalytic approach to understanding punitive public attitudes

Punitive public attitudes cannot be easily explained by pointing to instrumental concerns (e.g., fear of crime, personal victimization, or real or perceived levels of crime). Instead, numerous observers have suggested that public punitiveness is more a symptom of free-floating anxieties and insecurities resulting from social change than a rational response to crime problems. We argue that these public concerns might be better understood by drawing on the insights of psychoanalytic theory, and we review relevant theoretical work to that effect.     

A functional approach to understanding attitudes toward AIDS victims.

Attitudes toward victims of AIDS were conceptualized as serving three possible functions: a value-expressive function (e.g., stigmatization), an ego-defensive function (e.g., homosexual prejudice), or a knowledge function (e.g., victim derogation). These functions were evaluated by having a sample of U.S. undergraduates respond to a victim who had contracted AIDS by one of three different means: a blood transfusion, a sexual encounter of a homosexual nature, or intravenous drug use. Subjects then indicated their beliefs about the victim's responsibility for the disease, feelings toward the victim, and likely behavioral interactions with the victim. The findings provided most support for the knowledge function of attitudes toward AIDS victims.     

The p-value fallacy and how to avoid it.

Null hypothesis significance tests are commonly used to provide a link between empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation. However, this strategy is prone to the "p-value fallacy" in which effects and interactions are classified as either "noise" or "real" based on whether the associated p value is greater or less than .05. This dichotomous classification can lead to dramatic misconstruals of the evidence provided by an experiment. For example, it is quite possible to have similar patterns of means that lead to entirely different patterns of significance, and one can easily find the same patterns of significance that are associated with completely different patterns of means. Describing data in terms of an inventory of significant and nonsignificant effects can thus completely misrepresent the results. An alternative analytical technique is to identify competing interpretations of the data and then use likelihood ratios to assess which interpretation provides the better account. Several different methods of calculating the likelihood ratios are illustrated. It is argued that this approach satisfies a principle of "graded evidence," according to which similar data should provide similar evidence.     

Resolving ambiguity: a psycholinguistic approach to understanding prosody processing in high-functioning autism

Individuals with autism exhibit significant impairments in prosody production, yet there is a paucity of research on prosody comprehension in this population. The current study adapted a psycholinguistic paradigm to examine whether individuals with autism are able to use prosody to resolve syntactically ambiguous sentences. Participants were 21 adolescents with high-functioning autism (HFA), and 22 typically developing controls matched on age, IQ, receptive language, and gender. The HFA group was significantly less likely to use prosody to disambiguate syntax, but scored comparably to controls when syntax alone or both prosody and syntax indicated the correct response. These findings indicate that adolescents with HFA have difficulty using prosody to disambiguate syntax in comparison to typically developing controls, even when matched on chronological age, IQ, and receptive language. The implications of these findings for how individuals with autism process language are discussed.     

An information-based approach to action understanding

It has been proposed that the ability to make sense of other agents' behavior relies on the activation of internal mechanisms that map action perception onto action execution. In this study we explored the constraints on this ability introduced by eyeheight-scaled information in the optic array. Short and tall participants provided maximum overhead reaching judgments for themselves and another participant. Perceptual information was manipulated by changing the participants' optically specified eyeheight. Observers were modestly accurate in perceiving maximum overhead reach for themselves and for another actor whose action capabilities differed. Perceived maximum overhead reach increased for both self- and other-judgments when the perceiver's eyeheight was increased. The results suggest an important role of perceptual information that has gone unrecognized in existing accounts of action understanding and prediction.     

Hermeneutic listening: An approach to understanding in multicultural conversations

Listening is crucial to reaching multicultural understanding. Borrowing from the work of Hans-Georg Gadamer we develop a hermeneutics of listening. To listen we must risk our prejudices, but these prejudices constitute our very identity. In this paper we attempt to answer the question, “Why Listen?” if listening is such a potentially dangerous activity.     

A critique of the microcounselling approach to problem understanding

Microcounselling approaches involve teaching the component behaviours of effective counselling or interviewing within a problem-solving framework. Egan, Ivey and Carkhuff, as proponents of this view, stress that later action stages of the problem-solving cycle should be based on an adequate understanding of the client's problem. The relationship between the skills which comprise the microcounselling approach and the goal of problem understanding is examined. It is argued that the approach lacks any explanation of how problem understanding is reached, and that it concentrates instead on the communication techniques involved in the discovery and modification of the client's understanding. This omission leaves counsellors without a rationale for the modification of their clients' views and without a means to regulate their use of the various microskills. Information theory and recent research on complex problem-solving are introduced to explain the skills involved in reaching a high-quality understanding of a client's problem. Given that these complex cognitive processes are not addressed in the microcounselling approach, suggestions are made for its modification.