Bayesian Modal Estimation for the One-Parameter Logistic Ability-Based Guessing (1PL-AG) Model

The calibration of the one-parameter logistic ability-based guessing (1PL-AG) model in item response theory (IRT) with a modest sample size remains a challenge for its implausible estimates and difficulty in obtaining standard errors of estimates. This article proposes an alternative Bayesian modal estimation (BME) method, the Bayesian Expectation-Maximization-Maximization (BEMM) method, which is developed by combining an augmented variable formulation of the 1PL-AG model and a mixture model conceptualization of the three-parameter logistic model (3PLM). By comparing with marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in JAGS, the simulation shows that BEMM can produce stable and accurate estimates in the modest sample size. A real data example and the MATLAB codes of BEMM are also provided.     

A probabilistic multidimensional scaling with unique axes1

Abstract: A probabilistic multidimensional scaling model is proposed. The model assumes that the coordinates of each stimulus are normally distributed with variance Σ_i = diag(σ²₁, … σ²_Ri). The advantage of this model is that axes are determined uniquely. The distribution of the distance between two stimuli is obtained by polar coordinates transformation. The method of maximum likelihood estimation for means and variances using the EM algorithm is discussed. Further, simulated annealing is suggested as a means of obtaining initial values in order to avoid local maxima. A simulation study shows that the estimates are accurate, and a numerical example concerning the location of Japanese cities shows that natural axes can be obtained without introducing individual parameters.     

Constrained versus unconstrained estimation in structural equation modeling

Recently, R. D. Stoel, F. G. Garre, C. Dolan, and G. van den Wittenboer (2006) reviewed approaches for obtaining reference mixture distributions for difference tests when a parameter is on the boundary. The authors of the present study argue that this methodology is incomplete without a discussion of when the mixtures are needed and show that they only become relevant when constrained difference tests are conducted. Because constrained difference tests can hide important model misspecification, a reliable way to assess global model fit under constrained estimation would be needed. Examination of the options for assessing model fit under constrained estimation reveals that no perfect solutions exist, although the conditional approach of releasing a degree of freedom for each active constraint appears to be the most methodologically sound one. The authors discuss pros and cons of constrained and unconstrained estimation and their implementation in 5 popular structural equation modeling packages and argue that unconstrained estimation is a simpler method that is also more informative about sources of misfit. In practice, researchers will have trouble conducting constrained difference tests appropriately, as this requires a commitment to ignore Heywood cases. Consequently, mixture distributions for difference tests are rarely appropriate.     

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers.     

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Equation Models With Nonlinear Covariates and Latent Variables

In this article, we formulate a nonlinear structural equation model (SEM) that can accommodate covariates in the measurement equation and nonlinear terms of covariates and exogenous latent variables in the structural equation. The covariates can come from continuous or discrete distributions. A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze the proposed model. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for obtaining Bayesian estimates and their standard error estimates, highest posterior density intervals, and a PP p value are developed. Results obtained from two simulation studies are reported to respectively reveal the empirical performance of the proposed Bayesian estimation in analyzing complex nonlinear SEMs, and in analyzing nonlinear SEMs with the normal assumption of the exogenous latent variables violated. The proposed methodology is further illustrated by a real example. Detailed interpretation about the interaction terms is presented.     

适用于多维迫选测验的IRT计分模型

迫选(forced-choice,FC)测验由于可以控制传统李克特方法带来的反应偏差,被广泛应用于非认知测验中,而迫选测验的传统计分方式会产生自模式数据,这种数据由于不适合于个体间的比较,一直备受批评。近年来,多种迫选IRT模型的发展使研究者能够从迫选测验中获得接近常模性的数据,再次引起了研究者与实践人员对迫选IRT模型的兴趣。首先,依据所采纳的决策模型和题目反应模型对6种较为主流的迫选IRT模型进行分类和介绍。然后,从模型构建思路、参数估计方法两个角度对各模型进行比较与总结。其次,从参数不变性检验、计算机化自适应测验(computerized adaptive testing, CAT)和效度研究3个应用研究方面进行述评。最后提出未来研究可以在模型拓展、参数不变性检验、迫选CAT测验和效度研究4个方向深入。     

Conditional estimation of exponential random graph models from snowball sampling designs

A complete survey of a network in a large population may be prohibitively difficult and costly. So it is important to estimate models for networks using data from various network sampling designs, such as link-tracing designs. We focus here on snowball sampling designs, designs in which the members of an initial sample of network members are asked to nominate their network partners, their network partners are then traced and asked to nominate their network partners, and so on. We assume an exponential random graph model (ERGM) of a particular parametric form and outline a conditional maximum likelihood estimation procedure for obtaining estimates of ERGM parameters. This procedure is intended to complement the likelihood approach developed by  Handcock and Gile (2010) by providing a practical means of estimation when the size of the complete network is unknown and/or the complete network is very large. We report the outcome of a simulation study with a known model designed to assess the impact of initial sample size, population size, and number of sampling waves on properties of the estimates. We conclude with a discussion of the potential applications and further developments of the approach.     

The Infinitesimal Jackknife with Exploratory Factor Analysis

The infinitesimal jackknife, a nonparametric method for estimating standard errors, has been used to obtain standard error estimates in covariance structure analysis. In this article, we adapt it for obtaining standard errors for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in exploratory factor analysis with sample correlation matrices. Both maximum likelihood estimation and ordinary least squares estimation are considered.     

Robust Bayesian growth curve modelling using conditional medians

Growth curve models have been widely used to analyse longitudinal data in social and behavioural sciences. Although growth curve models with normality assumptions are relatively easy to estimate, practical data are rarely normal. Failing to account for non-normal data may lead to unreliable model estimation and misleading statistical inference. In this work, we propose a robust approach for growth curve modelling using conditional medians that are less sensitive to outlying observations. Bayesian methods are applied for model estimation and inference. Based on the existing work on Bayesian quantile regression using asymmetric Laplace distributions, we use asymmetric Laplace distributions to convert the problem of estimating a median growth curve model into a problem of obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator for a transformed model. Monte Carlo simulation studies have been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed approach with data containing outliers or leverage observations. The results show that the proposed approach yields more accurate and efficient parameter estimates than traditional growth curve modelling. We illustrate the application of our robust approach using conditional medians based on a real data set from the Virginia Cognitive Aging Project.     

Bayesian active probabilistic classification for psychometric field estimation

Psychometric functions are typically estimated by fitting a parametric model to categorical subject responses. Procedures to estimate unidimensional psychometric functions (i.e., psychometric curves) have been subjected to the most research, with modern adaptive methods capable of quickly obtaining accurate estimates. These capabilities have been extended to some multidimensional psychometric functions (i.e., psychometric fields) that are easily parameterizable, but flexible procedures for general psychometric field estimation are lacking. This study introduces a nonparametric Bayesian psychometric field estimator operating on subject queries sequentially selected to improve the estimate in some targeted way. This estimator implements probabilistic classification using Gaussian processes trained by active learning. The accuracy and efficiency of two different actively sampled estimators were compared to two non-actively sampled estimators for simulations of one of the simplest psychometric fields in common use: the pure-tone audiogram. The actively sampled methods achieved estimate accuracy equivalent to the non-actively sampled methods with fewer observations. This trend held for a variety of audiogram phenotypes representative of the range of human auditory perception. Gaussian process classification is a general estimation procedure capable of extending to multiple input variables and response classes. Its success with a two-dimensional psychometric field informed by binary subject responses holds great promise for extension to complex perceptual models currently inaccessible to practical estimation.

     

Loss of Information in Estimating Item Parameters in Incomplete Designs

In this paper, the efficiency of conditional maximum likelihood (CML) and marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation of the item parameters of the Rasch model in incomplete designs is investigated. The use of the concept of F-information (Eggen, 2000) is generalized to incomplete testing designs. The scaled determinant of the F-information matrix is used as a scalar measure of information contained in a set of item parameters. In this paper, the relation between the normalization of the Rasch model and this determinant is clarified. It is shown that comparing estimation methods with the defined information efficiency is independent of the chosen normalization. The generalization of the method to other models than the Rasch model is discussed. In examples, information comparisons are conducted. It is found that for both CML and MML some information is lost in all incomplete designs compared to complete designs. A general result is that with increasing test booklet length the efficiency of an incomplete design, compared to a complete design, is increasing, as is the efficiency of CML compared to MML. The main difference between CML and MML is seen in the effect of the length of the test booklet. It will be demonstrated that with very small booklets, there is a substantial loss in information (about 35%) with CML estimation, while this loss is only about 10% in MML estimation. However, with increasing test length, the differences between CML and MML quickly disappear.     

基于多层验证性因素分析的各种信度系数方法

近年来,心理学研究的复现性受到广泛关注,许多实证研究难以重复验证,信度较低。大量研究使用多层技术,但只报告整体信度,导致研究可重复危机。基于各种信度系数和验证性因素分析的理论,以二层模型为例,总结多层信度计算方法,通过文献综述检索应用情况,并用MPLUS进行实例演示,最后讨论单层信度估计存在的偏差及分层估计的好处。总之,对多层数据进行分层信度估计是很有必要的,可消除因测量工具缺乏信度而导致的研究不可重复。     

Random search with unequal search rates: Serial and parallel generalizations of McGill's model

A generalization of W. J. McGill's (1963, Stochastic latency mechanisms. In R. D. Luce, R. B. Bush, & E. Galanter (Eds.), Handbook of mathematical psychology (Vol. 1). New York: Wiley) random search model is examined in which the items in the search area are allowed to vary with respect to accessability. In order to analyze the model, it is equivalently described as a serial and as a parallel model. Predictions are derived for the means and variances of the interresponse times and of the number of recalls by time t. The predictions are compared to those made by the individual differences generalization of McGill's model proposed by D. G. Morrison (1979), Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 19, 307–315). In a final section, maximum likelihood estimation of parameters is discussed.     

Visual information and skill level in time-to-collision estimation

Previous studies on the visual origin of time-to-collision (Tc) information have demonstrated that Tc estimates can be based solely on the processing of target expansion rate (optic variable tau). But in the simulated situations used (film clips), there was little reliable information on speed (owing to reduced peripheral vision) and distance (owing to the absence of binocular distance cues) available. In order to determine whether these kinds of information are also taken into account, it is necessary to take an approach where the subject receives a more complete visual input. Thus, an experiment conducted on a circuit under actual driving conditions is reported. Experienced drivers and beginners, who were passengers in a car, had to indicate the moment they expected a collision with a stationary obstacle to take place. Subjects were blindfolded after a viewing time of 3 s. The conditions for speed evaluation (normal versus restricted visual field) and distance evaluation (binocular versus monocular vision) by subjects were varied. The approach speed (30 and 90 km h-1) and actual Tc (3 and 6 s) were also varied. The results show that accuracy of Tc estimation increased with (i) normal visual field, (ii) binocular vision, (iii) higher speeds, and (iv) driving experience. These findings have been interpreted as indicating that both speed and distance information are taken into account in Tc estimation. They suggest furthermore that these two kinds of information may be used differently depending on the skill level of the subject. The results are discussed in terms of the complementarity of the various potentially usable visual means of obtaining Tc information.     

A Factor-Analytic Model for Assessing Individual Differences in Response Scale Usage

This article proposes a factor-analytic model, intended for graded-response or continuous-response personality and attitude items, which includes an additional multiplicative person parameter that models the individual's response mapping process. The model, which is a modification of Spearman's (1904) factor analysis (FA) model, is parameterized as both an FA model and an item response theory (IRT) model and is fully developed to the extent that it can be used in applications. Procedures for (a) calibrating the items and assessing data fit, (b) obtaining individual estimates of both person parameters, (c) determining measurement precision, and (d) assessing differential predictability are proposed and discussed. The potential advantages of the proposal, its practical relevance, and its relations with other approaches are also discussed. Its functioning is assessed with a simulation study and 3 empirical examples in the personality domain.     

Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data With Examples From Criminology

Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides individual-level information including information about heterogeneity of growth. It is shown how a type of numerical averaging can be used with the random intercepts model to obtain group-level information, thus approximating individual and marginal aspects of the LMM. The types of inferences associated with each model are illustrated with longitudinal criminal offending data based on N = 506 males followed over a 22-year period. Violent offending indexed by official records and self-report were analyzed, with the marginal model estimated using generalized estimating equations and the random intercepts model estimated using maximum likelihood. The results show that the numerical averaging based on the random intercepts can produce prediction curves almost identical to those obtained directly from the marginal model parameter estimates. The results provide a basis for contrasting the models and the estimation procedures and key features are discussed to aid in selecting a method for empirical analysis.     

Linear Phase-Correction in Synchronization: Predictions, Parameter Estimation, and Simulations

A stochastic model for synchronization with a metronome is analyzed which generalizes Wing and Kristofferson's (1973a, 1973b) two-level model for tapping. The model includes a motor component, a timekeeper component, and a linear phase error correction mechanism. The model's predictions of the asymptotic dependence structure of the synchronization errors and interresponse intervals are derived. Problems of identifiability and estimation of parameters are discussed.     

THE LAW OF CATEGORICAL JUDGMENT AND THE MEASUREMENT OF COLOR CONSTANCY

The scaling method used by von Fieandt, Ahonen & Järvinen (1964) for measuring color constancy is discussed. It is argued that (i) the underlying scaling model and the experimental procedure they employed are incompatible, and that (ii) the analytical procedure they applied to the data for obtaining the empirical scale values is incorrect. The data are reanalyzed, and the goodness of fit of both the original and the present results is evaluated.     

Improving judgement with prepaid expert advice

Decision makers (“Judges”) often make decisions after obtaining advice from an Advisor. The two parties often share a psychological “contract” about what each contributes in expertise to the decision and receives in monetary outcomes from it. In a laboratory experiment, we varied Advisor Experitise and the opportunity for monetary rewards. As expected, these manipulations influenced advice quality, advice taking, and Judge post‐advice decision quality. The main contribution of the study, however, was the manipulation of the timing of monetary rewards (before or after the advising interaction). We found, as predicted, that committing money for expert—but not novice—advice increases Judges' use of advice and their subsequent estimation accuracy. Implications for advice giving and taking are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.