Confirmation and justification. A commentary on Shogenji’s measure

So far no known measure of confirmation of a hypothesis by evidence has satisfied a minimal requirement concerning thresholds of acceptance. In contrast, Shogenji’s new measure of justification (Shogenji, Synthese, this number 2009) does the trick. As we show, it is ordinally equivalent to the most general measure which satisfies this requirement. We further demonstrate that this general measure resolves the problem of the irrelevant conjunction. Finally, we spell out some implications of the general measure for the Conjunction Effect; in particular we give an example in which the effect occurs in a larger domain, according to Shogenji justification, than Carnap’s measure of confirmation would have led one to expect.     

Racial Athletic Stereotype Confirmation in College Football Recruiting

The present study tested real-world racial stereotype use in the context of college athletic recruiting. Stereotype confirmation suggests that observers use stereotypes as hypotheses and interpret relevant evidence in a biased way that confirms their stereotypes. Shifting standards suggest that the evaluative standard to which we hold a target changes as a function of their group membership. We examined whether stereotype confirmation and shifting standards effects would be seen in college football coaches during recruiting. College football coaches evaluated a Black or White player on several attributes and made both zero- and non-zero-sum allocations. Results suggested that coaches used the evidence presented to develop biased subjective evaluations of the players based on race while still maintaining equivalent objective evaluations. Coaches also allocated greater overall resources to the Black recruit than the White recruit.     

Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses as Relations

Summary  In spite of several attempts to explicate the relationship between a scientific hypothesis and evidence, the issue still cries for a satisfactory solution. Logical approaches to confirmation, such as the hypothetico-deductive method and the positive instance account of confirmation, are problematic because of their neglect of the semantic dimension of hypothesis confirmation. Probabilistic accounts of confirmation are no better than logical approaches in this regard. An outstanding probabilistic account of confirmation, the Bayesian approach, for instance, is found to be defective in that it treats evidence as a formal entity and this creates the problem of relevance of evidence to the hypothesis at issue, in addition to the difficulties arising from the subjective interpretation of probabilities. This essay purports to satisfy the need for a successful account of hypothesis confirmation by offering an original formulation based on the notion of instantiation of the relation urged by an hypothesis.     

Data meet theory: up close and inferentially personal

In a recent paper James Bogen and James Woodward denounce a set of views on confirmation that they collectively brand ‘IRS’. The supporters of these views cast confirmation in terms of Inferential Relations between observational and theoretical Sentences. Against IRS accounts of confirmation, Bogen and Woodward unveil two main objections: (a) inferential relations are not necessary to model confirmation relations since many data are neither in sentential form nor can they be put in such a form and (b) inferential relations are not sufficient to model confirmation relations because the former cannot capture evidentially relevant factors about the detection processes and instruments that generate the data. In this paper I have a two-fold aim: (i) to show that Bogen and Woodward fail to provide compelling grounds for the rejection of IRS models and (ii) to highlight some of the models’ neglected merits.     

A weak symmetry condition for probabilistic measures of confirmation

This paper presents a symmetry condition for probabilistic measures of confirmation which is weaker than commutativity symmetry, disconfirmation commutativity symmetry but also antisymmetry. It is based on the idea that for any value a probabilistic measure of confirmation can assign there is a corresponding case where degrees of confirmation are symmetric. It is shown that a number of prominent confirmation measures such as Carnap’s difference function, Rescher’s measure of confirmation, Gaifman’s confirmation rate and Mortimer’s inverted difference function do not satisfy this condition and instead exhibit a previously unnoticed and rather puzzling behavior in certain cases of disconfirmation. This behavior also carries over to probabilistic measures of information change, causal strength, explanatory power and coherence.     

Mobile technologies in use by those participating in Lutheran confirmation training in Finland

Abstract

This article focuses on the study of where mobile devices and social media tools are taken into consideration in the Finnish confirmation training entity as a new opportunity to work together. The research is based on the ethnographical method. The data was collected by observation in two confirmation training camp periods and interviewing confirmation training participants. The aim was to find out ways mobile devices were exploited in confirmation training pedagogy, how adolescents reacted to such mobile device use and how adolescents described their personal mobile device use. The research material is analysed by inductive content analysis. The findings are discussed in the theoretical context of the communities of practice (CoPs), originally formed by Lave and Wenger . According to the results, mobile device use, in the confirmation training programme did not seem to be that special for adolescents. At the same time, the youth considered it important to have the possibility to use mobile devices according to their own preferences. Using mobile devices in confirmation training challenged the traditional CoP setting, as adolescents used mobile technology more in their own way, being familiar with it in their earlier virtual communities of practice (VCoPs), instead of the plans of the workers of confirmation training.     

The quality and effectiveness of confirmation classes in Finland

Every year some 90% of 15‐year‐olds in Finland attend confirmation classes in the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland, which is greater than the percentage of that age group belonging to the Church. What is behind the popularity of Finnish confirmation classes? This article scrutinizes the quality and effectiveness of confirmation classes. Classes and their quality are approached from three angles: (1) equivalence of confirmation expectations and experiences; (2) participants’ satisfaction; 3) effectiveness of confirmation classes. As its theoretical basis the study leans on the quality of service thinking typically used in market research. The study is based on questionnaire data gathered from young people (n = 1109–1322) before and after participating in confirmation classes. Response rates were 90 and 76%. The findings of the study show that there is no contradiction between the three perspectives of the quality of confirmation classes: those classes for which satisfaction was reported and in which expectations and experiences were fulfilled or exceeded were also those which had the most positive effects on attitudes to Christianity.     

“The Ravens Paradox” is a misnomer

I argue that the standard Bayesian solution to the ravens paradox— generally accepted as the most successful solution to the paradox—is insufficiently general. I give an instance of the paradox which is not solved by the standard Bayesian solution. I defend a new, more general solution, which is compatible with the Bayesian account of confirmation. As a solution to the paradox, I argue that the ravens hypothesis ought not to be held equivalent to its contrapositive; more interestingly, I argue that how we formally represent hypotheses ought to vary with the context of inquiry. This explains why the paradox is compelling, while dealing with standard objections to holding hypotheses inequivalent to their contrapositives.     

判断与决策中的证实性偏差

证实性偏差是指个体在决策时, 倾向于有意或无意地寻找支持已有信念、预期或假设的信息和解释, 忽视可能与之不一致的信息和解释。目前, 研究者主要从肯定检验策略、认知失调理论以及错误规避三个方面解释证实性偏差的心理机制。证实性偏差还受到条件性参考框架、任务的抽象性、个体经验以及认知闭合的需要等因素的影响。虽然证实性偏差不能完全消除, 但是可以通过竞争性假设分析法和考虑对立面的方法降低其程度。未来的研究可以从证实性偏差的产生根源、研究范式、群体决策中的证实性偏差以及拓展应用研究这四个方面进行探讨。     

Biased information search in homogeneous groups: confidence as a moderator for the effect of anticipated task requirements

When searching for information, groups that are homogeneous regarding their members' prediscussion decision preferences show a strong bias for information that supports rather than conflicts with the prevailing opinion (confirmation bias). The present research examined whether homogeneous groups blindly search for information confirming their beliefs irrespective of the anticipated task or whether they are sensitive to the usefulness of new information for this forthcoming task. Results of three experiments show that task sensitivity depends on the groups' confidence in the correctness of their decision: Moderately confident groups displayed a strong confirmation bias when they anticipated having to give reasons for their decision but showed a balanced information search or even a dis confirmation bias (i.e., predominately seeking conflicting information) when they anticipated having to refute counterarguments. In contrast, highly confident groups demonstrated a strong confirmation bias independent of the anticipated task requirements.     

Procedimientos analítico-racionales en la adaptación de tests. Adaptación al español de la batería de pruebas de razonamiento

Adapting a test between cultures or languages requires taking into account legal, linguistic, metric, and use-related considerations. Significantly more attention has been paid to the methodological aspects involved in the study of metric equivalence than to judgmental-analytical procedures prior to the empirical confirmation stage. However, considering the latter is crucial in the adaptation process. Along these lines, this paper seeks to describe and focus on the relevance of the previous stages, thereby offering a systematization process that comprises ten sections. This approach contributes to ensuring the construction of a test adapted and equivalent in as much as possible to the original. This process is exemplified by means of a Spanish language adaptation of a cognitive test originally designed in Portuguese for the Portuguese population, the Reasoning Test Battery.     

Hypothetico-Deductivism: Incomplete But Not Hopeless

Alleged counter-examples deployed in Park (2004) [Erkenntnis 60: 229–240] against the account of selective hypothetico-deductive confirmation offered in Gemes (1998) [Erkenntnis 49: 1–20] are shown to be ineffective. Furthermore, the reservations expressed in Gemes (1998) [ibid] and (1993) [Philosophy of Science 62: 477–487] about hypothetico-deductivism (H-D) are retracted and replaced with the conclusion that H-D is a viable account of confirmation that captures much of the practice of working scientists. However, because it cannot capture cases of inference to the best explanation and cases of the observational confirmation of statistical hypotheses, it is concluded that H-D cannot supply a complete theory of confirmation.     

Sexist attitudes and beliefs during adolescence: A longitudinal study of gender differences

The aim of this study was to examine changes in sexist attitudes and beliefs in a group of Spanish adolescents over a period of three consecutive years, with specific attention being paid to gender differences. Participants were 279 students (mean age at first assessment of 12.10 years) who, in each of the three years, completed the Ambivalent Sexism Inventory and the Questionnaire on Attitudes towards Diversity and Violence. Longitudinal analysis showed that hostile sexism did not vary over time, whereas scores on benevolent sexism and on sexist beliefs and justification of violence all fell between the ages of 12 and 14, there being an equivalent decrease in boys and girls. Boys scored significantly higher than girls on hostile sexism, as well as on sexist beliefs. These results illustrate how sexist attitudes and beliefs change during adolescence and provide further confirmation that these variables show gender differences from an early age.     

The path or the goal? Decision vs. information focus in biased information seeking after preliminary decisions

Research on the phenomenon of selective exposure to information demonstrates that after preliminary or final decisions, people show a preference for supporting rather than conflicting information (confirmation bias). In this article, we examine conditions that increase or decrease distortions in the search for information. We report on four experiments indicating that the confirmation bias is influenced by whether people focus on their decision or on the presented pieces of information during the information search. Focusing on the decision, for example, because a reward for a correct decision is promised or simply because participants repeatedly think of it, increases the confirmation bias. On the other hand, if participants focus on the available pieces of information because they have to invest money in order to search for information or because they have to evaluate the individual pieces of information, the confirmation bias decreases. Implications for theoretical understanding and interventions for decision-making situations are discussed.     

Corpus-based estimates of word association predict biases in judgment of word co-occurrence likelihood

This paper draws a connection between statistical word association measures used in linguistics and confirmation measures from epistemology. Having theoretically established the connection, we replicate, in the new context of the judgments of word co-occurrence, an intriguing finding from the psychology of reasoning, namely that confirmation values affect intuitions about likelihood. We show that the effect, despite being based in this case on very subtle statistical insights about thousands of words, is stable across three different experimental settings. Our theoretical and empirical results suggest that factors affecting traditional reasoning tasks are also at play when linguistic knowledge is probed, and they provide further evidence for the importance of confirmation in a new domain.     

Perceived teacher confirmation.

This article reports an initial attempt to operationalize perceived teacher confirmation in behavioral terms and to explore relationships among perceived teacher confirmation, cognitive learning, and affective learning. Results for 2 samples (N=446; N=303) indicate that the final 16‐item version of the Teacher Confirmation Scale (TCS) is valid and reliable. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that teacher confirmation is best represented by a 3‐factor solution: (a) teachers' response to students' questions‐comments, (b) demonstrated interest in students and in their learning, and teaching style. Results also indicate that teacher confirmation plays a significant role in college students' cognitive and affective learning. For Sample 1, confirmation uniquely explained 18% of the variance in cognitive learning and 30% of the variance in affective learning, after controlling for demographic variables and relevance of assignments. For Sample 2, confirmation uniquely explained 17% of the variance in cognitive learning and 31% of the variance in affective learning, after controlling for the same variables. Structural equation modeling revealed strong, significant paths between confirmation and affective learning and between affective and cognitive learning. The study revealed a large, significant, indirect effect of teacher confirmation on cognitive learning, suggesting that affective learning serves as a mediating variable between teacher confirmation and cognitive learning. A multiple groups comparison demonstrated that the structural model was invariant for the 2 samples.     

Why are good theories good? reflections on epistemic values, confirmation, and formal epistemology

Franz Huber’s (2008a) attempt to unify inductivist and hypothetico-deductivist intuitions on confirmation by means of a single measure are examined and compared with previous work on the theory of verisimilitude or truthlikeness. The idea of connecting ‘the logic of confirmation’ with ‘the logic of acceptability’ is also critically discussed, and it is argued that ‘acceptability’ takes necessarily into account some pragmatic criteria, and that at least two normative senses of ‘acceptability’ must be distinguished: ‘acceptable’ in the sense of ‘being allowed to accept’, and ‘acceptable’ in the sense of ‘being obliged to accept’. Lastly, some connections of confirmation theory with naturalism, intertheoretic reduction, and explanation vs. understanding are explored.     

Parental confirmation as a mitigator of feeling caught and family satisfaction

This study tested parental confirmation as a mitigator of the inverse association between young adults' feelings of being caught and family satisfaction. Participants included 567 young adult children from intact and divorced families. Results indicated that mother's confirmation mitigated the inverse association between feeling caught and family satisfaction for young adults from divorced families. Family satisfaction was lowest in divorced families when young adults felt caught and their fathers were disconfirming, though young adults in intact families reported even less satisfaction in such a communicative context. Importantly, mother confirmation was more predictive of family satisfaction in divorced families than in intact families, whereas father confirmation was more predictive of family satisfaction than mother confirmation for young adults in intact families.     

Giving Debiasing Away: Can Psychological Research on Correcting Cognitive Errors Promote Human Welfare?

ABSTRACT— Despite Miller's (1969) now-famous clarion call to "give psychology away" to the general public, scientific psychology has done relatively little to combat festering problems of ideological extremism and both inter- and intragroup conflict. After proposing that ideological extremism is a significant contributor to world conflict and that confirmation bias and several related biases are significant contributors to ideological extremism, we raise a crucial scientific question: Can debiasing the general public against such biases promote human welfare by tempering ideological extremism? We review the knowns and unknowns of debiasing techniques against confirmation bias, examine potential barriers to their real-world efficacy, and delineate future directions for research on debiasing. We argue that research on combating extreme confirmation bias should be among psychological science's most pressing priorities.     

Which social needs are important for subjective well-being? What happens to them with aging?

In this study the authors investigated how satisfaction levels of affection, behavioral confirmation, and status, as three human social needs, relate to age, physical loss, and subjective well-being. Results (N=883, aged 65 to 98 years) revealed that (a) affection was relatively high and status was relatively low in all age and loss groups; behavioral confirmation showed negative age and loss effects but was better predicted by loss; (b) the three needs relate differentially to indicators of subjective well-being: affection and behavioral confirmation relate positively to life satisfaction; status and behavioral confirmation relate positively to positive affect and negatively to negative affect. It is concluded that the need for behavioral confirmation is more difficult to satisfy with high physical loss, but none of the three social needs becomes less important with advancing age.