投资行为中突显、情绪和股价高估的实验研究

本研究采用背景突显与情绪、股价估值匹配的测试方法,比较大盘不同指数背景的乐观程度和估值的差异.研究发现高突显(正向)伴随高乐观,同时具有正高估,高突显(负向)伴随悲观情绪,同时具有负高估;即刻情绪波动大的估值波幅也大,换手率也高.     

学习判断中的孤立效应

采用孤立范式考察知觉和语义孤立对学习判断及其准确性的影响.两个实验的结果表明:知觉孤立没有影响学习判断,而语义孤立对学习判断的影响受到关键项目所处位置的限制,在孤立范式条件下,被试做判断时仍然倾向于高估,表现出过度自信.     

过度自信的研究展望

过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务巾出现了分离现象。最近,研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信,用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。     

知觉经验与知觉内容

知觉(perception)是指我们通过视觉、听觉、触觉、嗅觉、味觉等感觉器官而获得的对事物以及外部世界的意识感知.知觉经验(perceptual experience)的一个显著的特点是它具有某种现象特征,即知觉者会体验到一种"那究竟像什么(what it is like)"的感觉.例如,一个人会从红色视觉经验中体验到"红色究竟像什么"的意识感受性(qualia).知觉内容(perceptual content)粗略地讲是指通过知觉经验向知觉者所传递的信息.关于知觉问题在哲学上的重要性,我们可以从以下几点来看:在形而上学方面,知觉是我们了解外部物理世界究竟存在什么的主要手段;在认识论方面,研究知觉是研究我们如何达到关于外部物理世界的知识的主要手段;在语言哲学方面,知觉内容是我们的心灵与外部物理世界的关联及互动在语言实践上的体现;在心灵哲学方面,知觉经验中的现象特征与意识及意向性之间存在着深层的内在联系.     

过分自信的进化模型

过分自信有狭义和广义之分, 狭义的过分自信是指人们对自身绝对水平的高估, 使得对自己的评价优于实际水平, 广义的过分自信是一种非理性的过于优化的估计, 还包括对自身相对水平的高估。基于进化心理学理论和生态理性假设提出的进化模型认为, 过分自信是一种快速启发式认知策略, 在适应和生存中具有优势, 是进化选择的结果。根据对个体知觉偏差的不同假设, 进化模型分为二项式模型和正态模型, 都得出了一致的研究结论。与过分自信的自我提升理论、权重差异理论和信息差异理论相比较, 进化模型具有许多优点, 但也存在一些不足, 需要进一步对其进行探讨和检验。     

坡度的高估是系统性的还是测量造成的——感觉方式和报告方式对坡度知觉的影响

大量研究显示,人们对地表斜坡的知觉非常不准确,所知觉到的坡度比实际坡度大.然而,也有研究发现,虽然言语报告时对坡度的估计会出现高估,但通过触控面板用手掌对斜坡的倾斜程度进行模拟时,坡度的估计值与实际坡度基本一致.本研究考察了不同感觉方式下采用四种不同的报告方式来判断坡度时的差别.结果发现,除手臂模拟可使坡度高估的情况有所下降以及触控面板模拟会使坡度知觉出现低估外,本体感觉和运动等均不能为坡度知觉提供更准确的信息.因此,本研究提示,虽然坡度估计在一定情境下受报告方式的影响,但其高估现象几乎存在于各个感觉通道之中,是认知加工前期的系统性提高,而非坡度视觉线索所致.     

初中生英语自我效能感与知觉到的教师期望、英语成绩的关系

研究主要考察初中生英语自我效能感、知觉到的教师期望与英语成绩的关系.探索性和验证性因素分析结果表明,初中生英语自我效能感包括学科能力感、目标自信感、挫折效能感和策略使用感四个维度.研究得出高成绩组学生的英语自我效能感及知觉到的教师期望显著高于低成绩组学生;英语自我效能感具有显著的性别差异、年级差异与学校类型差异;年级、学校类型、英语自我效能感中的能力因子与挫折因子及知觉到的教师期望中的态度因子是英语成绩的显著预测变量.     

老年人面孔识别衰退的理论探究

面孔识别是指个体能够正确再认面孔及正确辨认面部表情的能力.在老龄化进程加剧的背景下,面孔识别能力的衰退机制成为近年来该领域研究的热点问题之一.通过对近20年来面孔识别衰退的实证研究的深入分析和整理,归纳出当前解释面孔识别衰退现象的四种理论:编码衰减理论、知觉熟悉性理论、基于交流理论和自我管理策略理论,同时指出了该研究领域中存在的问题和发展趋势.     

父、母教育行为的结构及其与小学儿童焦虑情绪的关系

本研究采用问卷法对北京市五城区12所小学283名三至六年级小学儿童进行了调查,考察其知觉中的父母教育行为与其焦虑情绪之间的关系。研究结果表明:1.小学儿童知觉中的父母教育行为具有一定的内在结构,均包括惩罚/严厉、爱/支持、民主/信任和过度保护四个维度;2.小学儿童知觉中的父母教育行为与其焦虑情绪之间有显着的高相关;3.进一步回归分析发现,母亲的惩罚/严厉行为和父亲的民主/信任行为、过度保护行为对小学儿童的焦虑情绪有着显着影响。     

特殊的视错觉：运动诱导视盲

突显的静止目标被一定空间范围内运动背景所覆盖时, 人类会感受到静止目标消失再重现的发生, 这种视错觉现象叫做运动诱导视盲(motion-induced blindness, MIB)。该现象成因的理论解释主要有：注意竞争理论、知觉完型加工理论以及神经生理机制相关理论。作为特殊的视错觉现象, 该现象与其他盲视现象不同,主要是由客体识别过程中的知觉变化引起; 另一方面, 运动诱导视盲中“反知觉”现象的特殊性也是研究者关注的问题之一。神经生理机制层面的研究关注早期、晚期皮层在该现象发生时的变化, 采用眼动、脑电等技术对错觉现象发生时程进行测量与评估。文章在总结已有相关研究的基础上进一步指出今后可深入探索的研究方向有：MIB发生的深层机制、作为研究意识神经相关、无意识知觉加工等课题的工具、MIB中的意义性加工与认知冲突等。     

When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence and performance in categorical decision tasks

The study traces the development of confidence and its relation to performance as participants learn a new skill and develop from laymen to experts. We describe a new hierarchy of Categorical Decisions Structures that distinguishes between screening, discrimination, and classification modes. Each decision mode offers a different representation of information and provides a different type of feedback. We propose simple models of performance and confidence, and derive their predictions under all three modes. We report results of an empirical study designed to evaluate the models’ predictions. Ninety participants performed 1200 categorical decisions under the three modes and three distinct base rates. Results show that (a) decisions made in the screening mode tend to induce over-confidence; (b) the discrimination mode leads to fast learning and high correspondence between performance and confidence; and (c) the detailed feedback provided in the classification mode results in slow and steady improvement of the correspondence between confidence and performance.     

Test difficulty and judgment bias

Two experiments tested the hypothesis that overconfidence in performance judgments is due to test- and person-driven errors. In Experiment 1, test difficulty accounted for the vast majority of variation in overconfidence when individuals judged items of varying difficulty within a homogeneous test. In Experiment 2, the severity of overconfidence did not differ between three unrelated tests once test difficulty was controlled. Both experiments supported the view that over-confidence is due largely to test difficulty. Some degree of overconfidence also occurred because individuals adopted a normatively high success criterion for judging their own test performance.     

High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: An event-related brain potential study

Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that “high discounters” in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.     

The Epistemic Criterion: A Response to Michael Hand

This article is a response to Michael Hand’s critique in this issue of my response to his use of the epistemic criterion as the sole means for identifying whether or not an issue should be identified as controversial. I argue that he has misunderstood my intention in suggesting that I was seeking to replace the epistemic criterion. Rather my purpose was to challenge his over-confidence in the decisiveness of reason and to temper his use of the epistemic criterion by suggesting it needed to embrace ethical concerns.     

Quel engagement organisationnel pour les salariés précaires ? Les leçons d’une étude empirique auprès de travailleurs intérimaires

The aim of this article is to focus on contingent workers’ organizational commitment. A review of literature on contingent workers’ attitudes leads to think that this type of work arrangement is associated with a high level of job insecurity, which is not favourable to organizational commitment. However, empirical studies present very contrasting results. This absence of consensus leads us to propose a research model, which puts the emphasis on the way the temporary workers interpret their job arrangement. The model was tested on 208 temporary help service workers. The results highlight the mediating role of perceived job insecurity on organizational commitment, as well as importance of perceived organizational support (POS).     

A Systems Approach to Ethical Problems

Codes of professional ethics and cases designed to teach ethical decision making are written for individual professionals and ignore the systems level of analysis. They typically employ a lineal view of causality and overvalue placement of blame as a component of ethical problem solving. This article takes a systems approach to ethical problems and identifies aspects of systems that promote or impede ethical decision making. Psychological abuse of children is used as an example of a problem requiring a coordinated, systemic response to ethical issues such as autonomy, privacy, and confidentiality.     

A systems approach to ethical problems

Codes of professional ethics and cases designed to teach ethical decision making are written for individual professionals and ignore the systems level of analysis. They typically employ a lineal view of causality and overvalue placement of blame as a component of ethical problem solving. This article takes a systems approach to ethical problems and identifies aspects of systems that promote or impede ethical decision making. Psychological abuse of children is used as an example of a problem requiring a coordinated, systemic response to ethical issues such as autonomy, privacy, and confidentiality.     

Psychometric properties of the Thought-Action Fusion Scale in a Turkish sample

The aim of the present study was to reveal the cross-cultural utility of the Thought-Action Fusion Scale (TAFS; J. Anxiety Disord. 10 (1996) 379). Thought-action fusion (TAF) refers to the tendency to overvalue the significance and the consequences of thoughts. Two hundred and fifty one undergraduate Turkish students participated in the current study. The reliability and validity analyses of the Turkish version of the scale indicated that the TAFS had adequate psychometric properties in a Turkish sample. Consistent with the original TAF, the Turkish version of TAFS revealed two subscales as TAF-Likelihood and TAF-Morality. Reliability analysis showed that TAF Scale and its factors had adequate internal consistencies and split-half reliability coefficients. Confirming the expectations, TAFS scores were found to be significantly and positively correlated with obsessive-compulsive symptoms, responsibility, and guilt measures. Moreover, it was found that people with high obsessive-compulsive symptoms had higher TAFS scores than those with low symptoms.     

禀赋效应对产品更换决策的影响

以禀赋效应理论为研究基础, 通过两个情景实验对产品更换过程中买卖双方的决策心理进行了研究。实验1表明, 在以旧换新活动中新产品的买方对旧产品的价格有高估的倾向, 对新产品的价格有低估的倾向; 相反, 新产品的卖方对旧产品的价格有低估的倾向, 而对于新产品的价格有高估的倾向, 这说明产品更换决策中存在着双重的禀赋效应。实验2表明, 新产品的买方对旧产品的属性评价显著高于新产品的卖方, 对新产品的属性评价显著低于新产品的卖方, 说明属性评价也存在禀赋效应的特征。双重禀赋效应的存在从消费者行为的角度解释了为什么消费者会出现创新抵制行为。     

Probabilistic judgements in deluded and non-deluded subjects

An experiment is described in which deluded subjects were compared with a non-deluded psychiatric control group and a normal control group on a probabilistic inference task. Deluded subjects were found to request less information before reaching a decision and to express higher certainty levels than either control group. They also exhibited over-confidence on estimates of the probability of a future event.

Delusion. A false personal belief based on incorrect inference about external reality and firmly sustained in spite of what almost everyone else believes and in spite of what constitutes incontrovertible and obvious proof or evidence to the contrary. The belief is not one ordinarily accepted by other members of the person's subculture. [American Psychiatric Association, 1980]