Problem structuring heuristics in strategic decision making

In a laboratory experiment using 73 undergraduate students as subjects, comparisons were made between the use of a convergent, divergent, and limited heuristic for problem structuring under different stress levels. It was found that subjects using either the convergent or the divergent heuristic had lower satisfaction with the process and lower confidence in their results than those using the limited heuristic. There were no differences in the time used or the quality of results between subjects using the convergent and divergent heuristic. Stress reduced the quantity of results when using either the convergent or divergent heuristic. The subjects may have preferred the limited heuristic because the use of the convergent or divergent heuristic used more time, thus more energy, and resulted in more alternatives, thus increased uncertainty. It is also possible that the subjects preferred their future career plans to be more ambiguous than the use of either the convergent or divergent heuristic allowed.     

Stimulus and response conflict processing during perceptual decision making

Encoding and dealing with conflicting information is essential for successful decision making in a complex environment. In the present fMRI study, stimulus conflict and response conflict are contrasted in the context of a perceptual decision-making dot-motion discrimination task. Stimulus conflict was manipulated by varying dot-motion coherence along task-relevant and task-irrelevant dimensions. Response conflict was manipulated by varying whether or not competing stimulus dimensions provided evidence for the same or different responses. The right inferior frontal gyrus was involved specifically in the resolution of stimulus conflict, whereas the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex was shown to be sensitive to response conflict. Additionally, two regions that have been linked to perceptual decision making with dot-motion stimuli in monkey physiology studies were differentially engaged by stimulus conflict and response conflict. The middle temporal area, previously linked to processing of motion, was strongly affected by the presence of stimulus conflict. On the other hand, the superior parietal lobe, previously associated with accumulation of evidence for a response, was affected by the presence of response conflict. These results shed light on the neural mechanisms that support decision making in the presence of conflict, a cognitive operation fundamental to both basic survival and high-level cognition.     

Political ideology and labor arbitrators' decision making in work-family conflict cases

Labor arbitrators were asked to render decisions about grievances brought by employees who had been fired because of problems created by work conflicts with family responsibilities. The study examined the effects of experimentally manipulated grievant attributes (gender, type of work-family conflict) as well as arbitrator attributes (gender, political ideology) on decision making. When employees were depicted as having had child care problems, liberal arbitrators tended to favor female over male grievants, and political conservatism predicted more favorable judgments rendered toward male grievants. Overall, the data suggest that child care responsibilities cue different patterns of gender bias among liberal and conservative decision makers.     

Fast and frugal heuristics and naturalistic decision making: a review of their commonalities and differences

Both the fast and frugal heuristics (FFHs) and the naturalistic decision making (NDM) research programmes have identified important areas of inquiry previously neglected in the traditional study of human judgment and decision making, and have greatly contributed to the understanding of people's real-world decision making under environmental constraints. The two programmes share similar theoretical arguments regarding the rationality, optimality, and role of experience in decision making. Their commonalities have made them appealing to each other, and efforts have been made, by their leading academics, to promote synergy and integration. However, there has been little progress towards this during the last decade. This paper seeks to address this gap by seeking to better understand their commonalities and differences. To do so, literature relating to the two programmes is reviewed. The findings of the review indicated that an integration of the two could enhance FFHs' field research in applied settings, facilitate its investigation on boundary conditions of people's decision strategy selection, enable NDM to embrace emerging research opportunities in the age of big data, as well as permit each programme to enlighten the research topics and to validate the research findings of the other.     

The principle of additivity and its relation to clinical decision making

Clients (N = 178) with varying degrees of organic indicators were administered a psychological battery including the Memory for Designs Test (MFD; Graham & Kendall, 1960) to assess the extent to which joint presence of organic indicators affected the sensitivity of the MFD in identifying organicity. Joint presence failed to add to the discriminability of the MFD, although individual instruments such as the PIAT (Arithmetic) and WAIS-R (PIQ less than VIQ) clearly discriminated across the MFD.     

Consensus, clinical decision making, and unsettled cases

The model of clinical ethics consultation (CEC) defended in the ASBH Core Competencies report has gained significant traction among scholars and healthcare providers. On this model, the aim of CEC is to facilitate deliberative reflection and thereby resolve conflicts and clarify value uncertainty by invoking and pursuing a process of consensus building. It is central to the model that the facilitated consensus falls within a range of allowable options, defined by societal values: prevailing legal requirements, widely endorsed organizational policies, and professional standards of practice and codes of conduct. Moreover, the model stipulates that ethics consultants must refrain from giving substantive recommendations regarding how parties to a moral disagreement in the clinic should evaluate their options. We argue that this model of CEC is incomplete, because it wrongly assumes that what counts as the proper set of allowable options among which the parties are to deliberate will itself always be clearly discernible. We illustrate this problem with a recent case on which one of us consulted-a neonate born with trisomy 18 (T18). We try to show that law, policy, and standards of practice reveal no clear answer to the question posed by the case: namely, whether forgoing gastrostomy tube feedings for a baby with T18 is allowable. We suggest there may be other kinds of cases in which it may simply be unsettled whether a given choice falls within the set of allowable options within which consensus is to be facilitated. What should an ethicist do when confronting such unsettled cases? We agree with the facilitation model that an ethicist should remain neutral among the allowable options, when it is clear what the allowable options are. But, in unsettled cases, the role of a consultant should be expanded to include a process of moral inquiry into what the allowable options should be. We end by raising the issue of whether this means an ethicist should share his or her own conclusions or views about the allowability of a given clinical option.     

The Melbourne decision making questionnaire: an instrument for measuring patterns for coping with decisional conflict

A study was conducted to examine the factorial validity of the Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, 1982), a 31-item self-report inventory designed to measure tendencies to use three major coping patterns identified in the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977): vigilance, hypervigilance, and defensive avoidance (procrastination, buck-passing, and rationalization). A sample of 2051 university students, comprising samples from Australia (n=262), New Zealand (n=260), the USA (n=475), Japan (n=359), Hong Kong (n=281) and Taiwan (n=414) was administered the DMQ. Factorial validity of the instrument was tested by confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL. Five different substantive models, representing different structural relationships between the decision-coping patterns had unsatisfactory fit to the data and could not be validated. A shortened instrument, containing 22 items, yielded a revised model comprising four identifiable factors–vigilance, hypervigilance, buck-passing, and procrastination. The revised model had adequate fit with data for each country sample and for the total sample, and was confirmed. It is recommended that the 22-item instrument, named the Melbourne DMQ, replace the Flinders DMQ for measurement of decision-coping patterns. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between stress, hemispheric preference and decision making among managers

Previous studies have shown important effects of stress on decision making (DM). In addition, individuals differ in their relative activation of the left and right hemispheres (hemispheric preference; HP), with possible implications for DM. This study tested the relationship between stress, HP and their interaction, with DM in managers. We included a sample of 114 managers from Israel, Italy and France. Stress was inversely and significantly related to DM thoroughness (r=-.333), left-HP (r=-.24) and was positively correlated with instinctiveness DM (r=.25; all p<.05). Importantly, a stress×HP interaction accounted for an additional and significant 9% of the variance in thoroughness, beyond their main effects, nationality and gender. In this interaction, only in right HP managers, but not in left HP managers, stress was inversely correlated with thoroughness. A stress×HP interaction was not found for instinctiveness. Theoretically, our results advise investigating both situational (stress) and personal or biological (HP) factors in the job stress field. Practically, it can guide stress specialists to whom to provide scarce counseling resources of stress management, to improve workers' DM and well-being.     

The relationship between stress,hemispheric preference and decision making among managers

Abstract

Previous studies have shown important effects of stress on decision making (DM). In addition, individuals differ in their relative activation of the left and right hemispheres (hemispheric preference; HP), with possible implications for DM. This study tested the relationship between stress, HP and their interaction, with DM in managers. We included a sample of 114 managers from Israel, Italy and France. Stress was inversely and significantly related to DM thoroughness (r=?.333), left-HP (r=?.24) and was positively correlated with instinctiveness DM (r=.25; all p<.05). Importantly, a stress×HP interaction accounted for an additional and significant 9% of the variance in thoroughness, beyond their main effects, nationality and gender. In this interaction, only in right HP managers, but not in left HP managers, stress was inversely correlated with thoroughness. A stress×HP interaction was not found for instinctiveness. Theoretically, our results advise investigating both situational (stress) and personal or biological (HP) factors in the job stress field. Practically, it can guide stress specialists to whom to provide scarce counseling resources of stress management, to improve workers’ DM and well-being.     

Playing dice with criminal sentences: the influence of irrelevant anchors on experts' judicial decision making

Judicial sentencing decisions should be guided by facts, not by chance. The present research however demonstrates that the sentencing decisions of experienced legal professionals are influenced by irrelevant sentencing demands even if they are blatantly determined at random. Participating legal experts anchored their sentencing decisions on a given sentencing demand and assimilated toward it even if this demand came from an irrelevant source (Study 1), they were informed that this demand was randomly determined (Study 2), or they randomly determined this demand themselves by throwing dice (Study 3). Expertise and experience did not reduce this effect. This sentencing bias appears to be produced by a selective increase in the accessibility of arguments that are consistent with the random sentencing demand: The accessibility of incriminating arguments was higher if participants were confronted with a high rather than a low anchor (Study 4). Practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed.     

Applying artificial neural network models to clinical decision making

Because psychological assessment typically lacks biological gold standards, it traditionally has relied on clinicians' expert knowledge. A more empirically based approach frequently has applied linear models to data to derive meaningful constructs and appropriate measures. Statistical inferences are then used to assess the generality of the findings. This article introduces artificial neural networks (ANNs), flexible nonlinear modeling techniques that test a model's generality by applying its estimates against "future" data. ANNs have potential for overcoming some shortcomings of linear models. The basics of ANNs and their applications to psychological assessment are reviewed. Two examples of clinical decision making are described in which an ANN is compared with linear models, and the complexity of the network performance is examined. Issues salient to psychological assessment are addressed.     

Numeracy and decision making

A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.     

The semantic side of decision making

The research reported in this paper follows the perspective that decision making is a meaningful act that conveys information. Furthermore, the potential meanings associated with decision options may affect the decisions themselves. This idea is examined in the contexts of compensation, donation, and exchange. In general, judgments were relation dependent and meaning dependent. Furthermore, the results show nonmonotonicities and limited substitutability in a pattern that challenges straightforward ways of mapping decisions onto a common currency of utility.     

The elusive link between conflict and conflict adaptation

A core tenet of the original conflict-monitoring model is that regulation is triggered automatically when conflict is present and that the same regulation mechanism explains both trial-to-trial adaptation effects as well as effects of block-wise conflict manipulations. We present here results from two experiments using the Stroop task that show (a) that adaptation effects in the absence of response repetitions may occur only at the beginning of testing and that (b) robust block-wise effects can be found even in the absence of trial-by-trial effects. Furthermore, we show that the failure to eliminate target-to-distractor repetitions can produce artificial trial-to-trial adaptation effects. Based on the evidence of a weak link between conflict and conflict adaptation, we argue that a wider range of possible reasons for conflict adaptation effects needs to be taken into consideration.