Deviant peer affiliations,crime and substance use: a fixed effects regression analysis

The present study was designed to assess the influence of deviant peer affiliations on crime and substance use in adolescence/young adulthood. Data were used from a 21-year longitudinal study of health, development, and adjustment of a birth cohort of 1,265 New Zealand children. Annual assessments of deviant peer affiliations were obtained for the period from age 14–21 years, together with measures of psychosocial outcomes including, violent crime, property crime, alcohol abuse, cannabis abuse, and nicotine dependence. Affiliating with deviant peers was found to be significantly associated with each of these outcomes (p < .0001). Statistical control for confounding by both fixed and time dynamic factors reduced the strength of association between deviant peer affiliations and outcome measures. Nevertheless, deviant peer affiliations remained significantly associated (p < .0001) with all outcomes. For violent/property crime, cannabis and alcohol abuse there was significant evidence of age-related variation in the strength of association with deviant peer affiliations, with deviant peer affiliations having greater influence on younger participants (14–15 years) than older participants (20–21 years). These results suggest that deviant peer affiliations are associated with increased rates of a range of adjustment problems in adolescence/young adulthood with deviant peer affiliations being most influential at younger ages.     

Spatial cognition and crime: the study of mental models of spatial relations in crime analysis

Several studies employed different algorithms in order to investigate criminal's spatial behaviour and to identify mental models and cognitive strategies related to it. So far, a number of geographic profiling (GP) software have been implemented to analyse mobility and its relation to the way criminals are using spatial environment when committing a crime. Since crimes are usually perpetrated in the offender's high-awareness areas, those cognitive maps can be employed to create a map of the criminal's operating area to help investigators to circumscribe search areas. The aim of the present study was to verify accuracy of simple statistical analysis in predicting spatial mobility of a group of 30 non-criminal subjects. Results showed that statistics such as Mean Centre and Standard Distance were accurate in elaborating a GP for each subject according to the mobility area provided. Future analysis will be implemented using mobility information of criminal subjects and location-based software to verify whether there is a cognitive spatial strategy employed by them when planning and committing a crime.     

Media consumption and crime trend perceptions: a longitudinal analysis

ABSTRACT

For over two decades, despite the downward crime trend, the American public has persisted in believing crime is on the rise. Cultivation theory holds that the media is responsible for the public’s crime trend perceptions. Previous cultivation studies heavily rely on cross-sectional data, which may lead to spurious conclusions due to reverse causation and omitted variable bias. This study aims to address these issues by utilizing longitudinal analyses. Drawing on three waves of the 2008–2009 American National Election Survey, we test the cultivation hypothesis using traditional OLS, OLS with lagged crime trend perceptions, fixed effects, and dynamic panel models. Newspaper and TV news consumption are related to crime trend perceptions in traditional OLS models. In other models, media consumption is not related to crime trend perceptions. The results do not support the cultivation hypothesis. It is likely that the cultivation effect of media has been overstated in the previous cross-sectional research.     

Sociocultural context of individual creativity: a transhistorical time-series analysis.

Hypotheses were stated which specify individual creativity as a function of developmental and productive period variables. It was then argued that these hypotheses could be better tested by examining generational fluctuations in creativity. Information from cultural and political archival sources was thus aggregated to form time series spanning 127 generations of European history. Data quality checks, control variables, data transformations, time-lagged comparisons, and trend analyses were used to improve the validity of the causal inferences. While the results varied according to the type of creativity (discursive or presentational) and the degree of achieved eminence, creative development was found to be affected by the following: (a) role model availability, (b) political fragmentation, (c) imperial instability, and (d) political instability.     

A predictive model for psychological reactions to crime in Italy: an analysis of fear of crime and concern about crime as a social problem

In this study a model for predicting fear of crime (FC) and concern about crime as a social problem (CC) in Italy has been built, using three sets of independent variables concerning: (a) the sociodemographic and criminal victimization domain; (b) the psychosocial domain; and (c) the mass media. A secondary analysis on data gathered by the Observatory of the North‐West (N = 3262, a mail panel that is representative of the Italian population over 18) has been performed. Results showed that FC and CC are related yet distinct constructs: FC is less widespread than CC, and has different predictors. FC predictors are sociodemographic, psychosocial and, above all, victimization variables; whereas mass media and psychosocial variables predict CC. Results were compared with the literature on the topic. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic stress and suicide: multilevel analyses. Part 1: Aggregate time-series analyses of economic stress and suicide

Of the research on health and economic stress, the approach that has produced the strongest findings has been the aggregate time-series analysis of unemployment and suicide rates. A review of the literature indicates that this aggregate work has been disputed on both methodological and interpretive grounds. To address these issues, two studies of the relationship between economic stress and suicide were conducted on the same population. The first, reported in this paper (Part 1), replicated the aggregate time-series work with improvements in method, using monthly data for 1975-1982 for Los Angeles. A second study (reported in Part 2) combined aggregate economic indicators with individual-level measures of stressful events, symptoms, and suicidal ideation.     

Police evaluation research: an experimental and cost-benefit analysis of a helicopter patrol in a high crime area

The significance of a helicopter patrol procedure directed toward prevention of home burglaries was evaluated from experimental and cost-benefit perspectives. The helicopter patrolled one city zone from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. for two 12-day periods. Each 12-day period was separated by a baseline period in which only normal patrol-car levels were maintained. Significantly reduced burglary levels during the intervention periods, compared to baseline periods, documented the experimental significance of the helicopter procedure. The cash costs of implementing the patrol procedure were compared to two estimates of the resulting cash benefits. This latter cost-benefit analysis was supplemented by a discussion of the intangible costs and benefits of the helicopter procedure. Taken together, these analyses documented that the marginal costs of the helicopter intervention were exceeded by all estimates of benefits.     

Local crime as a natural hazard: Implications for understanding the relationship between disorder and fear of crime

Summary We have suggested the following: Local crimes and natural hazards share several objective similarities and similarities in how they are perceived. Although local crimes and natural hazards are clearly different in numerous respects, these points of analogy suggest that in several ways responses to local disorder may be similar to responses to hazards. If this is the case, processes used to explain how persons respond to disasters may help explain a recurrent puzzle in the responses to disorder literature: the loose linkages between local disorder levels and fear levels.Future research needs include developing a fuller understanding of how other contextual factors mediate or moderate the processes discussed here, how these processes are related to and may mediate behavioral responses to crime, and how these behaviors in turn influence perceptions. We have suggested here that anticrime behaviors may result in some disadaptation to the threat, thereby elevating fear, and have provided evidence to that effect. In addition it is important to ascertain how the points of analogy between crime as a natural hazard and crime as an environmental stressor may be melded to develop more insight than afforded by either perspective considered singly. The heuristic developed here suggests some additional considerations for policy makers involved in anticrime or fear reduction programs.Irv Altman, Paul Bell, Joan McCord, Aaron Podolefsky, and Carol Werner provided helpful and encouraging comments on earlier drafts.     

Response-reinforcer independence and the economic continuum: A preliminary analysis

Three pigeons were exposed to 1-hr and 4-hr sessions during which they earned food under a fixed-ratio 50 schedule of reinforcement while obtaining additional food according to either a variable-interval or a variable-time schedule. Postsession food was provided after the 1-hr sessions. The frequency of the variable-interval and variable-time food presentations was varied under the two session durations. The various combinations of within-session earned and unearned food, as well as the postsession food, defined conditions on the open-to-closed economy continuum. Key pecks tended to increase as the frequency of either variable-interval or variable-time food decreased. An economic-continuum analysis based on an independence quotient as a measure of response-reinforcer independence is presented to account for the effects.     

Casinos and banking: Organized crime in the Bahamas

The symbiotic relationships among gambling casinos, offshore banks and professional criminals are complex. In numerous contemporary cases, professional criminals from the United States and elsewhere are known to utilize both casinos and financial institutions to launder money and to hide large amounts of illicitly acquired money. Long before recent revelations of such activities became known in the Caribbean and the U. S., developers in the Bahamas had started the process of bringing casinos and banks together to serve underworld interests. This paper traces the developments of that process and shows how American organized crime interests penetrated the Bahamas by using gambling and banking to gain a firm foothold.     

The effects of confederate influence and confidence on the accuracy of crime judgements

Building on recent work which has investigated social influences on memory and remembering, the present experiment examined the effects of social pressure and confederate confidence on the accuracy and confidence of eyewitnesses. Sixty undergraduate participants watched a video of a staged mugging and then answered questions about the video out loud in the presence of either one or three confederates who had also watched the film with them. Unbeknownst to the participant, the confederate(s) always gave incorrect responses to four out of the eight questions. Participants and confederates were also asked to give confidence scores out loud for each of their answers. Again, unbeknownst to the participant, the confederate(s) always expressed either high or low confidence scores for the incorrect information, depending on condition. Participants gave fewer correct answers, and were less confident, in the presence of three, as opposed to one, confederates. Participants were also more confident, yet no more accurate, when the confederate(s) gave high, as opposed to low, confidence scores. Thus the presumed independence of evidence given by multiple witnesses cannot be safely assumed.     

Linkage analysis: Modus operandi, ritual, and signature in serial sexual crime

This article examines a process of behavioral analysis, referred to as linkage analysis, used in identifying sexual offenses that have been committed by the same offender. This type of analysis examines behavior that is contained in three distinct components of a crime, i.e., the modus operandi (MO) or the “how to” of a crime; the ritual or fantasy-based behaviors for a particular type or series of sexual crimes; the signature or unique combination of behaviors, which suggests that a series of crimes has been perpetrated by the same offender. Linkage analysis involves five assessment procedures: (1) gathering detailed, varied, and multisource documentation; (2) reviewing the documentation and identifying significant features of each crime individually across the series; (3) classifying the significant features of the crime as either MO and/or ritualistic constructs; (4) comparing the combination of MO and ritualistic features across the crimes to determine if a signature exists; (5) compiling a written analysis that details the conclusions derived from the available information. Results of this type of analysis can be used for investigative purposes and, in some instances, can help to inform the decision-making of the courts.     

A longitudinal study of the effects of various crime prevention strategies on criminal victimization,fear of crime,and psychological distress

Examined the effects of precautionary behavior on subsequent criminal victimization, fear of crime, and psychological distress. A sample of 538 adults was interviewed three times at 6-month intervals. Four different aspects of precaution were assessed: vigilance (alertness), locks (access control), neighbors (informal cooperation), and professionals (formal programs). In logistic regressions that controlled for 14 risk factors, precaution had no preventive effects on the occurrence of subsequent crimes. LISREL models revealed that use of neighbors was the only precaution not to increase fear of crime, although both locks and neighbors showed a capacity to buffer the effects of fear on generalized distress. It was concluded that the most promising strategy was protective neighboring. Altogether, however, the promotion of citizen-initiated prevention appears highly inadequate as a policy response to problems of crime and fear.     

Air pollution, weather, and violent crimes: concomitant time-series analysis of archival data

Archival data covering a 2-year period were obtained from three sources in order to assess relations among ozone levels, nine measures of meteorological conditions, day of the week, holidays, seasonal trends, family disturbances, and assaults against persons. Confirming results obtained in laboratory studies, more family disturbances were recorded when ozone levels were high than when they were low. Two-stage regression analyses indicated that disturbances and assaults against persons were also positively correlated with daily temperatures and negatively correlated with wind speed and levels of humidity. Further, distributed lag (Box-Jenkins) analyses indicated that high temperatures and low winds preceded violent episodes, which occurred more often on dry than humid days. In addition to hypothesized relations, it was also found that assaults follow complaints about family disturbances, which suggests that the latter could be used to predict and lessen physical violence. It was concluded that atmospheric conditions and violent episodes are not only correlated but also appear to be linked in a causal fashion. This conclusion, however, was qualified by a discussion of the limitations of archival data and concomitant time-series analysis.     

Differences in intelligence across thirty-one regions of China and their economic and demographic correlates

This study reports the differences in intelligence across thirty-one regions of the People's Republic of China. It was found that regional IQs were significantly associated with the percentage of Han in the population (r = .59), GDP per capita (r = .42), the percentage of those with higher education (r = .38, p < .05), and non-significantly with years of education (r = .32).