Serious Offenders: Using Evidence to Predict and Manage the Risk

In response to the risk of serious further offences, an evidence‐based approach is needed in risk management. A recent joint prison–probation inspection of the management of life sentence prisoners in six U.K. prisons found that the quality of assessment and plans to manage risk of harm to others was insufficient, with too much focus on the offender's verbal account. The present paper discusses observations of regular prisoner behaviour as the basis for predictions, and summarizes results of an evaluation of this methodology based on a sample of high‐risk category prisoners released into the community. Prison behaviour has not traditionally been seen as a valid risk marker for violent recidivism, which may be because typically only conspicuous high‐level behaviours are considered by risk management panels. Our research suggests that we are neglecting a valuable source of information on risk by failing to observe on‐going and consistent pre‐release behaviour. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing Violence Risk Among Female IPV Perpetrators: An Examination of the B-SAFER

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global problem and one in which frontline assessment and management falls primarily to police. Although IPV is often conceptualized as a male-perpetrated crime, evidence substantiates female IPV perpetration and increased arrest rates, raising important issues for police. This article examines police use of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER; Kropp, Hart, & Belfrage, 2005, 2010), a violence risk assessment tool for IPV. The B-SAFER was used to assess and manage 52 women arrested for IPV. When compared to Belfrage and Strand (2008), who examined men arrested for IPV in the same sample, women possessed fewer risk factors. Risk factors were related to summary risk judgments, although differences existed between genders and risk judgments were not related to management recommendations. Results suggest that risk factors, in addition to those in the B-SAFER, are required to assess risk for female IPV.     

The Psychic Costs of Empathic Engagement: Personal and Demographic Predictors of Genetic Counselor Compassion Fatigue

Empathic connection with one’s patients is essential to genetic counselor clinical practice. However, repeatedly engaging with distressed patients may cause compassion fatigue, a phenomenon characterized as feeling overwhelmed by experiencing patients’ suffering. In order to extend findings of an initial qualitative study, we surveyed 222 genetic counselors about their compassion fatigue and factors that predict its occurrence. Multiple regression analysis identified seven significant predictors accounting for 53.7% of the variance in compassion fatigue. Respondents at higher risk of compassion fatigue were more likely to report being burned out, using self-criticism and giving up to manage stress, experiencing a greater variety of distressing clinical events, having larger patient caseloads, relying on religion as a coping strategy, having no children, and seeking support to manage stress. Respondents also provided critical incidents regarding their compassion fatigue and themes in these incidents are described. Practice and research recommendations are provided.     

A Multi‐Method,Multi‐Hazard Approach to Explore the Uniqueness of Terrorism Risk Perceptions and Worry1

Developing ways to manage terrorism effectively requires a better understanding of how the public perceives this threat. In the present study, Canadians' perceptions of terrorism risk and 4 other hazards were assessed using a word‐association technique and rating scales reflecting key cognitive dimensions of risk (threat, uncertainty, control) and worry reactions. Data were collected in a national telephone survey. Canadians perceived terrorism as posing a lower threat, as more uncertain, and as less controllable, compared to the other hazards. Positive associations of perceived threat and of perceived uncertainty with worry about terrorism were observed. However, perceived control was unexpectedly positively associated with worry about terrorism. The findings also suggest that additional social contextual factors should be examined in future research.     

Rationale and principles for early intervention with young children at risk for anxiety disorders

Anxiety disorders are one of the most prevalent categories of disorder among adults and children. Children of parents with anxiety disorders are known to be at higher risk for anxiety disorders themselves, with manifestations of this risk often appearing in toddlerhood or early childhood. Yet because affected parents are often unskilled in anxiety management, they often have difficulty in helping their young children learn to manage anxiety. Literature on the course of anxiety disorders through childhood and on effective cognitive-behavioral interventions suggests that preventive interventions even with very young children could potentially be of benefit in mitigating the course of these often debilitating disorders. This paper outlines the rationale for offering early or preventive interventions to preschool-age children at risk and their parents and discusses means of identifying children to target for intervention and the importance of parental involvement. Drawing upon the literature on parental factors in childhood anxiety disorders as well as on effective intervention strategies with preschool-age children, it delineates principles for intervention with parents and effective components of intervention with youngsters in this age range.     

Determinants of Parental Monitoring and Preadolescent Sexual Risk Situations Among African American Families Living in Urban Public Housing

We investigated determinants of parental monitoring and the association between parental monitoring and preadolescent sexual risk situations among low-income, African American families living in urban public housing. Preadolescents and their parents or caregivers who participated in a longitudinal study of familial and contextual influences on HIV/AIDS risk provided data on parental monitoring and preadolescent sexual risk situations. Data were also collected on parent risk factors (psychological distress, maternal age at first childbirth); preadolescent risk factors (responsiveness to parents, peer pressure) and contextual factors (parenting help, household type, friendship, partner presence, and perception of religious guidance) that were hypothesized to predict parental monitoring levels. Results showed that greater parental monitoring predicted less sexual risk situations. Further, instrumental and emotional supports were both significant predictors of parental monitoring, but parent and preadolescent risk factors were not strongly associated with parental monitoring. These results were similar for male and female preadolescent youth. Our findings suggest that preventive interventions to reduce sexual risk situations for urban, African American youth should consider parental monitoring. In addition, contextual factors such as strong parental friendship networks and instrumental help may enable parents to provide closer monitoring of youth.     

The Relationship Between Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors and Violent Behavior Among Urban Adolescents

Resiliency theory posits that some youth exposed to risk factors do not develop negative behaviors due to the influence of promotive factors. This study examines the effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on adolescent violent behavior and tests two models of resilience—the compensatory model and the protective model—in a sample of adolescent patients (14–18 years old; n = 726) presenting to an urban emergency department who report violent behavior. Cumulative measures of risk and promotive factors consist of individual characteristics and peer, family, and community influences. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to test the two models of resilience (using cumulative measures of risk and promotive factors) for violent behavior within a sample of youth reporting violent behavior. Higher cumulative risk was associated with higher levels of violent behavior. Higher levels of promotive factors were associated with lower levels of violent behavior and moderated the association between risk and violent behaviors. Our results support the risk-protective model of resiliency and suggest that promotive factors can help reduce the burden of cumulative risk for youth violence.     

Empathy deficits and sexual offending: A model of obstacles to empathy

Theoretical models of the role of empathy in sexual offending agree on five components relevant to the experience of empathy: a respectful and compassionate orientation to others, perspective taking, affective responding, the ability to manage personal distress, and situational factors. We identify overlap between these components of the empathic process and established risk factors for sexual offending and create a model detailing potential blocks to the empathic process during sexual offending. The model has external consistency and useful implications for interventions with sex offenders. Viewed in the light of this model, we argue that current sex offender treatment programs spend a disproportionate amount of time examining empathy for past victims. We recommend, instead, that treatment aims to enhance offenders' abilities in relation to the components of the empathic process more generally, using creative and engaging techniques akin to those used to develop “victim empathy”.     

Self-regulation and mortality from cancer, coronary heart disease, and other causes: A prospective study

This article introduces a new personality inventory dealing with self-regulation. This is in some ways the opposite of neuroticism, and measures personal autonomy or independence, particularly as far as emotional dependence is concerned. Our concern was the relation between self-regulation and health, and large samples of healthy men and women were tested and followed up to demonstrate high predictability of mortality from cancer, coronary heart disease and other causes of death from scores on the questionnaire. It was also demonstrated that psychological risk factors were largely independent from physical risk factors, and could be changed by behavioural-cognitive treatment, reducing mortality.     

Job characteristics,well-being and risky behaviour amongst pharmacists

Healthcare practitioners’ fitness to practise has often been linked to their personal and demographic characteristics. It is possible that situational factors, such as the work environment and physical or psychological well-being, also have an influence on an individual’s fitness to practise. However, it is unclear how these factors might be linked to behaviours that risk compromising fitness to practise. The aim of this study was to examine the association between job characteristics, well-being and behaviour reflecting risky practice amongst a sample of registered pharmacists in a region of the United Kingdom. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional self-report survey of 517 pharmacists. These data were subjected to principal component analysis and path analysis, with job characteristics (demand, autonomy and feedback) and well-being (distress and perceived competence) as the predictors and behaviour as the outcome variable. Two aspects of behaviour were found: Overloading (taking on more work than one can comfortably manage) and risk taking (working at or beyond boundaries of safe practice). Separate path models including either job characteristics or well-being as independent variables provided a good fit to the data-set. Of the job characteristics, demand had the strongest association with behaviour, while the association between well-being and risky behaviour differed according to the aspect of behaviour being assessed. The findings suggest that, in general terms, situational factors should be considered alongside personal factors when assessing, judging or remediating fitness to practise. They also suggest the presence of different facets to the relationship between job characteristics, well-being and risky behaviour amongst pharmacists.     

Motivating and deterring factors for two common traffic-rule violations of cyclists in Germany

Cyclists have a rather high risk of being injured in traffic accidents compared to motor vehicle occupants. Contributing factors leading to these crashes still need to be properly understood.Two online surveys were conducted concerning reasons, motives and likelihood for two common violations: riding on the wrong path (N = 198) and cycling without light in the dark (N = 755). Motivations for the infringements were examined by multiple linear regression models, including variables derived from the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1991) and deterrence factors as predictors of the intention to infringe.Results show that reported motives for the violations differ. For cycling on the wrong cycling path, 55% of variance could be explained. The most influential motive was a positive attitude towards the infringement. Twenty-nine percent of variance could be explained by the model for cycling without light in the dark. Subjective norms and assumed deterrence factors were found to have very little influence on intended violations in both surveys. Participants’ rule-knowledge was found to be generally low. Participants reported perceived regulative discrimination and technical hurdles to hinder rule-compliant behavior. Overall, the findings suggest that a more comprehensive, educational approach is required to manage cyclists’ behavior.     

From the casino to the jungle

Clear-cut cases of decision-making under risk (known probabilities) are unusual in real life. The gambler’s decisions at the roulette table are as close as we can get to this type of decision-making. In contrast, decision-making under uncertainty (unknown probabilities) can be exemplified by a decision whether to enter a jungle that may contain unknown dangers. Life is usually more like an expedition into an unknown jungle than a visit to the casino. Nevertheless, it is common in decision-supporting disciplines to proceed as if reasonably reliable probability estimates were available for all possible outcomes, i.e. as if the prevailing epistemic conditions were analogous to those of gambling at the roulette table. This mistake can be called the tuxedo fallacy. It is argued that traditional engineering practices such as safety factors and multiple safety barriers avoid this fallacy and that they therefore manage uncertainty better than probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). PRA is a useful tool, but it must be supplemented with other methods in order not to limit the analysis to dangers that can be assigned meaningful probability estimates.     

Serious,Minor, and Non-Delinquents in Early Adolescence: The Impact of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors. The TRAILS Study

This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament, family and school factors in preadolescence were examined on different groups of delinquents (based on self-report) in early adolescence. Data from the first two waves of the TRAILS study (N = 2,230) were used. The results provide evidence for a compensatory model that assumes main effects of risk and promotive factors on problem behavior. Accumulation of risks in preadolescence promoted being a serious delinquent in early adolescence, with the strongest effects for temperament. Accumulation of promotive effects decreased being a delinquent and supported being a non-delinquent. Furthermore, evidence is found for a counter-balancing effect of cumulative promotive and risk factors. Exposure to more promotive domains in the relative absence of risk domains decreased the percentage of serious delinquents. Our results did not support a protective model. Implications for prevention and intervention are discussed.     

Risky Sexual Behavior of Multiple Partner Relations and Women’s Autonomy in Four Countries

Existent research reveals that inequitable gender-based power in relationships and intimate partner violence contribute to HIV rates among women in the developing world. This study uses a multi-country analysis to examine women’s autonomy in negotiating safe sex practices such as having sex with a partner with no other concurrent partner to reduce the risk of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria, Kenya, Malawi, and Nepal. The Demographic Health Survey data for Nigeria (2013), Kenya (2008–2009), Malawi (2010), and Nepal (2011) provide geographical variability as well as HIV risk variables. The sample included 16,540 women aged 15–49 years who self-identified as ever married. Factor analysis for women’s autonomy was conducted based on socio-cultural theory. Logistic regression was conducted and results identified decision-making, labor force participation, and individual autonomy as women autonomy factors significantly reduced the risk for HIV infection by having one sex partner who has only one sex partner. Other women autonomy factors related to lower risk for HIV include education, place of residence, and religion. Our study indicates that effective management of HIV transmission requires addressing women autonomy factors within the context of culture.     

Fantasy Objects: The Perception of Safety of Emergency Shelter in Place Kits

Using interview data (n = 30) of residents in Calhoun County, Alabama, we examine the meaning respondents give to the objects (shelter-in-place kits) disseminated to residents in order to manage risk of accidents from Anniston Army Depot’s Chemical Weapons storage and incinerator activities. Our research builds on previous research examining how organizations engage in ‘fantasy planning,’ where they create plans that objectively do not increase safety but do create the perception of safety within the organization and especially the public.     

Family Factors Predicting Categories of Suicide Risk

We compared family risk and protective factors among potential high school dropouts with and without suicide-risk behaviors (SRB) and examined the extent to which these factors predict categories of SRB. Subjects were randomly selected from among potential dropouts in 14 high schools. Based upon suicide-risk status, 1,083 potential high school dropouts were defined as belonging to one of four groups; 573 non-suicide risk, 242 low suicide risk, 137 moderate suicide risk and 131 high suicide risk. Results showed significant group differences in all youth self-reported family risk and protective factors. Increased levels of suicide risk were associated with perceived conflict with parents, unmet family goals, and family depression; decreased levels of risk were associated with perceived parental involvement and family support for school. Perceived conflict with parents, family depression, family support satisfaction, and availability of family support for school were the strongest predictors of adolescent SRB. Our findings suggest that suicide vulnerable youth differ from their non-suicidal peers along the dimensions of family risk and protective factors.     

临时性组织中的快速信任：概念、形成前因及影响结果

快速信任是适应临时性组织的速成性、短期性和任务复杂性特点而形成的新的信任研究方向, 其一反传统信任对个性、人际关系和情感的关注而转向对认知、行为和角色的关注。利用快速信任能有效地管理临时性组织的脆弱性、不确定性、风险和期望问题。在介绍快速信任的概念和测量的基础上, 综述了影响快速信任形成的信任倾向、类别与原型和角色等因素, 并阐述了快速信任对团队及系统层面结果变量的影响。未来研究需对快速信任的情感成分、测量及维度划分、快速信任与领导的交互影响、快速信任下的不信任以及快速信任的动态发展方面展开深入探讨。     

Self‐Efficacy to Avoid Suicidal Action: Factor Structure and Convergent Validity among Adults in Substance Use Disorder Treatment

Individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) are at high risk of suicidal behaviors, highlighting the need for an improved understanding of potentially influential factors. One such domain is self‐efficacy to manage suicidal thoughts and impulses. Psychometric data about the Self‐Efficacy to Avoid Suicidal Action (SEASA) Scale within a sample of adults seeking SUD treatment (N = 464) is provided. Exploratory factor analysis supported a single self‐efficacy construct. Lower SEASA scores, or lower self‐efficacy, were reported in those with more severe suicidal ideation and those with more suicide attempts, providing evidence for convergent validity. Implications of measuring self‐efficacy in the context of suicide risk assessment are discussed.