Information search in heuristic decision making

Simple heuristics of the type introduced by Gigerenzer, Todd, and The ABC Research Group ( 1999 ) embody principles for information search, stop and decision making. These heuristics suggest that such processes are simple. In an analysis of general practitioners' (GPs) information search and decision‐making behaviour when prescribing a lipid lowering drug, we examined whether information search was simple, and whether a heuristic that predicts a simple decision‐making process was also accurate at describing information search. We found that GPs' information search behaviour was simple in that it demonstrated characteristics of the matching heuristic (e.g. stopping rule). In addition, although the matching heuristic which correctly predicted on average 75% of GPs' decisions used significantly fewer cues on average than the GPs did in the information search task, it was reasonably accurate in describing order of information search. These findings have implications for the validity of simple heuristics describing both information search and decision making. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How social and non-social information influence classification decisions: A computational modelling approach

Social information such as observing others can improve performance in decision making. In particular, social information has been shown to be useful when finding the best solution on one’s own is difficult, costly, or dangerous. However, past research suggests that when making decisions people do not always consider other people’s behaviour when it is at odds with their own experiences. Furthermore, the cognitive processes guiding the integration of social information with individual experiences are still under debate. Here, we conducted two experiments to test whether information about other persons’ behaviour influenced people’s decisions in a classification task. Furthermore, we examined how social information is integrated with individual learning experiences by testing different computational models. Our results show that social information had a small but reliable influence on people’s classifications. The best computational model suggests that in categorization people first make up their own mind based on the non-social information, which is then updated by the social information.     

Ability to take an out-group's perspective in explaining positive and negative behaviors

A total of 251 Latvian and Russian schoolteachers explained positive and negative behaviours from their own perspective and from the perspective of an ethnic out-group. The results were in line with the attributional pattern usually found in studies using Hewstone's direct perspective of judgement, when participants are asked to take the perspective of an ethnic out-group. That is, there was an outcome effect in causal attributions for in-group actors and a categorization effect for negative behaviour from the imagined (out-group's) perspective. The attributions from the direct perspective only partly replicated the commonly found pattern. The results support Montgomery's perspective theory.     

Children’s prior experiences of their successes and failures modulate belief alignment

ABSTRACT

An ability to flexibly learn from others while at other times relying upon one’s own judgements is an important adaptive human capacity. The present research investigated how others’ epistemic states and prior experience of their own independent ability in a given task modulate young children’s selective learning. In particular, we asked whether 4-year-old children’s judgement concerning the location of a hidden object is modulated both by an informant’s knowledge states and by the absence/presence of a prior experience with a particular task. We found that the children were more likely to align their judgement according to the informant’s verbal report when the informant was knowledgeable than when she was ignorant – but only when they had explicitly experienced their own incapability to accurately guess an object’s location. The findings suggest that 4-year-old children are able to combine their own experience with others’ input to make their judgement.     

The cost of thinking about false beliefs: evidence from adults' performance on a non-inferential theory of mind task

Much of what we know about other people's beliefs comes non-inferentially from what people tell us. Developmental research suggests that 3-year-olds have difficulty processing such information: they suffer interference from their own knowledge of reality when told about someone's false belief (e.g., [Wellman, H. M., & Bartsch, K. (1988). Young children's reasoning about beliefs. Cognition, 30, 239-277.]). The current studies examined for the first time whether similar interference occurs in adult participants. In two experiments participants read sentences describing the real colour of an object and a man's false belief about the colour of the object, then judged the accuracy of a picture probe depicting either reality or the man's belief. Processing costs for picture probes depicting reality were consistently greater in this false belief condition than in a matched control condition in which the sentences described the real colour of one object and a man's unrelated belief about the colour of another object. A similar pattern was observed for picture probes depicting the man's belief in most cases. Processing costs were not sensitive to the time available for encoding the information presented in the sentences: costs were observed when participants read the sentences at their own pace (Experiment 1) or at a faster or a slower pace (Experiment 2). This suggests that adults' difficulty was not with encoding information about reality and a conflicting false belief, but with holding this information in mind and using it to inform a subsequent judgement.     

The influence of decision heuristics and overconfidence on multiattribute choice: A process-tracing study

In the present study it was shown that decision heuristics and confidence judgements play important roles in the building of preferences. Based on a dual-process account of thinking, the study compared people who did well versus poorly on a series of decision heuristics and overconfidence judgement tasks. The two groups were found to differ with regard to their information search behaviour in introduced multiattribute choice tasks. High performers on the judgemental tasks were less influenced in their decision processes by numerical information format (probabilities vs. frequencies) compared to low performers. They also looked at more attributes and spent more time on the multiattribute choice tasks. The results reveal that performance on decision heuristics and overconfidence tasks has a bearing both on heuristic and analytic processes in multiattribute decision making.     

Formation and use of covariation assessments in the real world

In this study we examined covariation assessments made using real‐world information held by individual participants about an important preventive health behaviour: receiving an influenza vaccine (‘flu shot’). Four hundred and seventy‐seven healthy adult participants completed a questionnaire, indicating both their personal experience and vicarious experience (knowledge of other people's experiences) with the flu shot and the flu. Additionally, participants provided a covariation assessment by indicating how effective they thought the flu shot is in preventing the flu. We examined whether the experience information was related to the covariation assessment, and whether it in turn was related to the decision to receive a flu shot. Our results indicated that people use a simple intuitive strategy to combine their personal experience information. For vicarious experience information, we found evidence for use of a normative strategy, as well as simpler intuitive strategies. Consistent with our hypothesis, both types of experience information were associated with the effectiveness judgement, which was subsequently related to the decision to obtain a flu shot. Practical applications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation

Our framework for understanding advice-taking in decision making rests on two theoretical concepts that motivate the studies and serve to explain the findings. The first is egocentric discounting of others' opinions and the second is reputation formation for advisors. Advice discounting is attributed to differential information, namely, the notion that decision makers have privileged access to their internal reasons for holding their own opinion, but not to the advisors' internal reasons. Reputation formation is related to the negativity effect in impression formation and to the trust asymmetry principle. In three studies we measured decision makers' weighting policy for advice and, in a fourth study, their willingness to pay for it. Briefly, we found that advice is discounted relative to one's own opinion, while advisors' reputations are rapidly formed and asymmetrically revised. The asymmetry implies that it may be easier for advisors to lose a good reputation than to gain one. The cognitive and social origins of these phenomena are considered.     

决策过程中的调节匹配效应及其机制

以大学生为被试,运用实验法探讨了决策过程中调节定向与信息搜索模式之间的匹配效应及其机制。结果显示：(1) 促进定向组被试决策时更偏好基于属性的信息搜索模式,而预防定向组被试决策时更偏好基于选项的信息搜索模式;(2)当两种调节定向组被试分别使用各自所偏好的信息搜索模式制定决策时,达成了调节匹配,相比调节不匹配,这种匹配使被试对其所做选择给出了更积极的评价,即出现了调节匹配效应;(3)加工流畅性可以部分地解释这种调节匹配效应。     

Who do you trust? The impact of facial emotion and behaviour on decision making

During social interactions, we use available information to guide our decisions, including behaviour and emotional displays. In some situations, behaviour and emotional displays may be incongruent, complicating decision making. This study had two main aims: first, to investigate the independent contributions of behaviour and facial displays of emotion on decisions to trust, and, second, to examine what happens when the information being signalled by a facial display is incongruent with behaviour. Participants played a modified version of the Trust Game in which they learned simulated players’ behaviour with or without concurrent displays of facial emotion. Results indicated that displays of anger, but not happiness, influenced decisions to trust during initial encounters. Over the course of repeated interactions, however, emotional displays consistent with an established pattern of behaviour made independent contributions to decision making, strengthening decisions to trust. When facial display and behaviour were incongruent, participants used current behaviour to inform decision making.     

Myopic biases in competitions

In three studies using both laboratory and field data, we show that the focal competitor’s strengths and weaknesses feature more prominently in predictions of the outcomes of future competitions than do the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents. People are more confident when their own side is strong, regardless of how strong the competition is. We show that this effect is driven by the fact that people have better information about their own side than the other side, in part because they preferentially seek out information about their own side. Implications for theories of decision making in competitive settings are discussed.     

经验信息与共变信息对判断两原因共同作用的影响

本研究考察了被试在使用经验信息和共变信息进行两原因共同作用因果判断时所具有的特点。研究结果表明:(1)两原因的性质对于被试的选择有着显著影响。当两原因的可信度相等时,更多被试认为两原因都可以引起结果。(2)两原因都不出现时结果出现的概率P(e/~i~j)对于被试的选择没有显著影响。(3)两原因单独出现时结果出现的概率对于被试的选择有着显著的影响,但是这一变量是与两原因的可信程度共同产生影响的。     

Factors Which Impact the Delivery of Genetic Risk Assessment Services Focused on Inherited Cancer Genomics: Expanding the Role and Reach of Certified Genetics Professionals

There is tremendous excitement about the promise of new genomic technologies to transform medical practice and improve patient care. Although the full power of genetic diagnosis has not yet been realized, paradigms of clinical decision-making are changing. In fact, recent policy level changes to promote genetic counseling by certified genetics professionals (GP) such as genetic counselors and clinical geneticists, are occurring at both the payer and state level. However, there remain opportunities to develop policies within the United States to: 1) enhance the access to the limited workforce of GPs; 2) revise reimbursement schemes such that costs to deliver these services may be recouped by institutions with GPs; and 3) protect against the potential for discrimination based on genetic information. Although many of these issues predate advances in genomic technologies, they are exacerbated by them, with increasing access and awareness as costs of testing decrease. Consequently, evolving shifts in national policies poise GPs to serve as a hub of information and may be instrumental in facilitating new models to deliver genetics-based care through promoting academic-community partnerships and interfacing with non-GPs. As we acknowledge the potential for genomics to revolutionize medical practice, the expertise of GPs may be leveraged to facilitate incorporation of this information into mainstream medicine.     

Listeners' eyes reveal spontaneous sensitivity to others' perspectives

During everyday social interactions, we typically anticipate (or explain) others' behaviour according to their current mental states (e.g. their knowledge, beliefs and intentions). To date, very little is known about the time-course with which such perspective information influences communication. We report a novel interactive ‘visual world’ study examining these processes. Here, two communicators watched videos depicting transfer events and subsequently described these events to each other. Critically, on half the trials a screen blocked the speakers' (but not the listeners') view part-way through the video, establishing a discrepancy in the knowledge held by the two communicators. Eye-tracking analyses showed that listeners were rapidly sensitive to their partner's perspective, as evidenced by a significantly reduced reality-bias when speakers held out-of-date knowledge about a privileged transfer event. However, we also found that under these conditions, listeners suffered ongoing interference from their own knowledge of reality, which inhibited successful anticipation of the speaker's intended referents.     

Factors influencing prescribing decisions in the treatment of depression: a social judgement theory approach

The under‐diagnosis and inappropriate treatment of depression in primary care has become a serious public health problem despite the development of many clinical guidelines to guide recognition and treatment of the disorder. This study aims to investigate decision‐making processes and to identify factors which influence general practitioners' (GPs) prescribing decisions and how these factors differ from those the guidelines recommend. Brunswik's lens model, from Social Judgement Theory (SJT), was employed to explore individual treatment decision policies of 40 GPs in the Grampian region of Scotland for 20 case vignettes. These individual policies were then aggregated and compared with those derived from guideline recommendations; important differences emerged between the two in the utilization of cues and there was considerable variation between GPs' policies. Guidelines placed more importance on the duration of symptoms whereas GPs gave weight also to particular symptoms, such as ‘thoughts of suicide’ and ‘sleep disturbance’ and patient treatment preference. GPs prescribed antidepressants at a greater rate than was recommended by the guidelines. The findings have important implications for implementation strategies, which maybe developed to accompany clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Receiving other people’s advice: Influence and benefit

Seeking advice is a basic practice in making real life decisions. Until recently, however, little attention has been given to it in either empirical studies or theories of decision making. The studies reported here investigate the influence of advice on judgment and the consequences of advice use for judgment accuracy. Respondents were asked to provide final judgments on the basis of their initial opinions and advice presented to them. The respondents’ weighting policies were inferred. Analysis of the these policies show that (a) the respondents tended to place a higher weight on their own opinion than on the advisor’s opinion (the self/other effect); (b) more knowledgeable individuals discounted the advice more; (c) the weight of advice decreased as its distance from the initial opinion increased; and (d) the use of advice improved accuracy significantly, though not optimally. A theoretical framework is introduced which draws in part on insights from the study of attitude change to explain the influence of advice. Finally the usefulness of advice for improving judgment accuracy is considered.     

Mirroring patients – or not. A study of general practitioners and psychiatrists and their interactions with patients with depression

For mentalization theorists, implicit mentalization is a key component of all forms of therapy. However, it has been difficult to grasp and to describe precisely how implicit mentalization works. It is said to take place partly by mirroring others in posture, facial expression and vocal tone. Based on studies of imitative behaviour within linguistics and psychology, we argue that interactional mirroring is an important aspect of displaying implicit mentalization. We aimed to explore if, and in that case how, mirroring is displayed by general practitioners (GPs) and psychiatrists in consultations with patients with depression. We wanted to see how implicit mentalizing unfolds in physician–patient interactions. Consultations were video-recorded and analysed within the framework of conversation analysis. GPs and psychiatrists differed substantially in their propensity to mirror body movements and verbal and acoustic features of speech. GPs mirrored their patients more than psychiatrists in all modalities and were more flexible in their interactional behaviour. Psychiatrists seemed more static, regardless of the emotionality displayed by patients. Implicitly mirroring and attuning to patients could signify enactment of implicit mentalization, according to how it is described by mentalization theorists. We discuss reasons for the differences between GPs and psychiatrists, and their implications.     

幼儿能力判断发展特点研究

本研究以62名3~6岁儿童为被试,考察了幼儿在不同任务中对自身和他人能力判断的发展特点。结果表明:(1)幼儿对自身或他人能力判断的准确性随着年龄的增长而提高;(2)幼儿对他人能力判断并不比对自身能力判断更准确,随着年龄的增长,幼儿开始对自身能力做出更加积极的判断;(3)幼儿能够明确区分愿望与预期,不过当幼儿对自身能力进行判断时这种区分不容易显现出来。     

Some Hedonic Consequences of Perspective‐Taking in Recommending

What do people enjoy about making recommendations? Although recommendation recipients can gain useful information, the value of these exchanges for the information provider is less clear in comparison. In this article we test whether a common recommendation heuristic—egocentric projection—also has hedonic consequences, by conducting experiments that compare recommendations (suggestions for another person) to reviews, in which people merely express their own preferences. Over five studies, people preferred reviewing over recommending. Recommenders enjoyed themselves less when they had to take their recipients' perspective, to the extent that the recipients' tastes were different from their own. These results suggest that self‐expression can be intrinsically rewarding for recommendation makers, and that recommendation seekers can elicit more information by asking for reviews instead.