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1.
Theodore Hailperin 《逻辑史和逻辑哲学》2013,34(3):249-269
In Hailperin 1996 , in addition to its formal development of Probability Logic, there are many sections devoted to historical origins, illustrative examples, and discussion of related work by other authors. Here selected portions of its formal treatment are summarized and then used as a basis for a probability logic treatment of combining evidence. 相似文献
2.
假言推理中的概率效应 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
近来Oaksford等人的研究表明,概率信息对假言推理的认知过程有着显著的影响,在一定程度上可以用它来解释和预测个体在推理中的行为反应。该文针对这种新的观点,就假言推理中所涉及的前后件概率信息、条件概率信息、连接概率信息、因果概率信息以及额外前提条件等对假言推理的影响分别做了简要的阐述,并介绍了一些相关的实验研究,最后作了总结和展望。 相似文献
3.
Probability kinematics is studied in detail within the framework of elementary probability theory. The merits and demerits of Jeffrey's and Field's models are discussed. In particular, the principle of maximum relative entropy and other principles are used in an epistemic justification of generalized conditionals. A representation of conditionals in terms of Bayesian conditionals is worked out in the framework of external kinematics. 相似文献
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《Journal of Applied Logic》2014,12(3):233-234
Editor's note: Special Issue on Combining Probability and Logic to Solve Philosophical Problems (Progic 2013). 相似文献
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A H van der Heijden 《Canadian journal of psychology》1989,43(1):45-52
Jonides (1980, p. 111) suggested a model to account for shifts of spatial attention in visual search tasks with less than 100% cue validity. This two-stage probability matching model was subsequently tested by Jonides (1983). Reaction time distribution characteristics indeed provided some support for the model. In the present paper the relevant data presented in Jonides (1980, 1981, 1983) are further analysed. The results of this analysis strongly support the probability matching hypothesis. Probability matching is apparently a very important strategic characteristic of visual spatial attention that deserves much more study. 相似文献
8.
Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for describing teachers' understandings of probability. To this end, we conducted an 8-day seminar with eight high school statistics teachers in the summer of 2001. The data we collected include videotaped sessions and interviews, teachers' written work, and researchers' field notes. Our analysis of the data revealed that there was a complex mix of conceptions and understandings of probability, both within and across the teachers, which were situationally triggered, often incoherent when the teachers tried to reflect on them, and which did not support their attempts to develop coherent pedagogical strategies regarding probability and statistical inference. 相似文献
9.
Probability transformation functions were introduced into modelsof behavior toward risk to allow them to accommodate violations of the expected utility hypothesis.This paper examines the shape of the probability transformation function, its interpretation asoptimism or pessimism, and how the ranking of outcomes becomes important when probability transformationsare used. It also explores two behavioral implications: the overweighting of unlikely, extremeoutcomes, and intertia around certainty. Finally, the rationality of transforming the probabilitydistribution is discussed. 相似文献
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The Psychological Record - Probability discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome changes because its delivery is uncertain. The present study measured the reliability of rates of... 相似文献
11.
It is argued that probability should be defined implicitly by the distributions of possible measurement values characteristic
of a theory. These distributions are tested by, but not defined in terms of, relative frequencies of occurrences of events
of a specified kind. The adoption of an a priori probability in an empirical investigation constitutes part of the formulation
of a theory. In particular, an assumption of equiprobability in a given situation is merely one hypothesis inter alia, which
can be tested, like any other assumption. Probability in relation to some theories – for example quantum mechanics – need
not satisfy the Kolmogorov axioms. To illustrate how two theories about the same system can generate quite different probability
concepts, and not just different probabilistic predictions, a team game for three players is described. If only classical
methods are allowed, a 75% success rate at best can be achieved. Nevertheless, a quantum strategy exists that gives a 100%
probability of winning.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
12.
Following the pioneer work of Bruno De Finetti [12], conditional probability spaces (allowing for conditioning with events of measure zero) have been studied since (at least) the 1950's. Perhaps the most salient axiomatizations are Karl Popper's in [31], and Alfred Renyi's in [33]. Nonstandard probability spaces [34] are a well know alternative to this approach. Vann McGee proposed in [30] a result relating both approaches by showing that the standard values of infinitesimal probability functions are representable as Popper functions, and that every Popper function is representable in terms of the standard real values of some infinitesimal measure.Our main goal in this article is to study the constraints on (qualitative and probabilistic) change imposed by an extended version of McGee's result. We focus on an extension capable of allowing for iterated changes of view. Such extension, we argue, seems to be needed in almost all considered applications. Since most of the available axiomatizations stipulate (definitionally) important constraints on iterated change, we propose a non-question-begging framework, Iterative Probability Systems (IPS) and we show that every Popper function can be regarded as a Bayesian IPS. A generalized version of McGee's result is then proved and several of its consequences considered. In particular we note that our proof requires the imposition of Cumulativity, i.e. the principle that a proposition that is accepted at any stage of an iterative process of acceptance will continue to be accepted at any later stage. The plausibility and range of applicability of Cumulativity is then studied. In particular we appeal to a method for defining belief from conditional probability (first proposed in [42] and then slightly modified in [6] and [3]) in order to characterize the notion of qualitative change induced by Cumulative models of probability kinematics. The resulting cumulative notion is then compared with existing axiomatizations of belief change and probabilistic supposition. We also consider applications in the probabilistic accounts of conditionals [1] and [30]. 相似文献
13.
Gaissmaier and Schooler (2008) [Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J. (2008). The smart potential behind probability matching. Cognition, 109, 416-422] argue that probability matching, which has traditionally been viewed as a decision making error, may instead reflect an adaptive response to environments in which outcomes potentially follow predictable patterns. In choices involving monetary stakes, we find that probability matching persists even when it is not possible to identify or exploit outcome patterns and that many “probability matchers” rate an alternative strategy (maximizing) as superior when it is described to them. Probability matching appears to reflect a mistaken intuition that can be, but often is not, overridden by deliberate consideration of alternative choice strategies. 相似文献
14.
W J Gehring G Gratton M G Coles E Donchin 《Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance》1992,18(1):198-216
This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations. 相似文献
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This study examined the utility of the Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) by comparing results obtained with a sample of 217 normal adolescents (M = 16.2 years) to the findings obtained in Cull and Gill's (1988 ) standardization effort. The present sample scored significantly higher than Cull and Gill's normative sample in SPS item, subscale, and total scores. In addition, the SPS generally failed to discriminate between the present, adolescent sample and Cull and Gill's inpatient psychiatric sample. Moreover, item-subscale correlations obtained for the present sample often differed from those reported by Cull and Gill, and factor analysis of SPS item scores failed to replicate Cull and Gill's four-factor solution. Findings suggest the need for caution when using the SPS to assess adolescent suicide potential and underscore the need for additional research regarding the instrument's efficacy in distinguishing between normal and suicidal adolescents. 相似文献
17.
Probability matching is the tendency to match choice probabilities to outcome probabilities in a binary prediction task. This tendency is a long-standing puzzle in the study of decision making under risk and uncertainty, because always predicting the more probable outcome across a series of trials (maximizing) would yield greater predictive accuracy and payoffs. In three experiments, we tied the predominance of probability matching over maximizing to a generally adaptive cognitive operation that generates expectations regarding the aggregate outcomes of an upcoming sequence of events. Under conditions designed to diminish the generation or perceived applicability of such expectations, we found that the frequency of probability-matching behavior dropped substantially and maximizing became the norm. 相似文献
18.
Isaac Levi 《Synthese》2010,172(1):97-118
This paper seeks to defend the following conclusions: The program advanced by Carnap and other necessarians for probability
logic has little to recommend it except for one important point. Credal probability judgments ought to be adapted to changes
in evidence or states of full belief in a principled manner in conformity with the inquirer’s confirmational commitments—except
when the inquirer has good reason to modify his or her confirmational commitment. Probability logic ought to spell out the
constraints on rationally coherent confirmational commitments. In the case where credal judgments are numerically determinate
confirmational commitments correspond to Carnap’s credibility functions mathematically represented by so—called confirmation
functions. Serious investigation of the conditions under which confirmational commitments should be changed ought to be a
prime target for critical reflection. The necessarians were mistaken in thinking that confirmational commitments are immune
to legitimate modification altogether. But their personalist or subjectivist critics went too far in suggesting that we might
dispense with confirmational commitments. There is room for serious reflection on conditions under which changes in confirmational
commitments may be brought under critical control. Undertaking such reflection need not become embroiled in the anti inductivism
that has characterized the work of Popper, Carnap and Jeffrey and narrowed the focus of students of logical and methodological
issues pertaining to inquiry. 相似文献
19.
Ben R. Newell Derek J. Koehler Greta James Tim Rakow Don van Ravenzwaaij 《Memory & cognition》2013,41(3):329-338
Probability matching in sequential decision making is a striking violation of rational choice that has been observed in hundreds of experiments. Recent studies have demonstrated that matching persists even in described tasks in which all the information required for identifying a superior alternative strategy—maximizing—is present before the first choice is made. These studies have also indicated that maximizing increases when (1)?the asymmetry in the availability of matching and maximizing strategies is reduced and (2)?normatively irrelevant outcome feedback is provided. In the two experiments reported here, we examined the joint influences of these factors, revealing that strategy availability and outcome feedback operate on different time courses. Both behavioral and modeling results showed that while availability of the maximizing strategy increases the choice of maximizing early during the task, feedback appears to act more slowly to erode misconceptions about the task and to reinforce optimal responding. The results illuminate the interplay between “top-down” identification of choice strategies and “bottom-up” discovery of those strategies via feedback. 相似文献