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1.
Kari Davies Jessica Woodhams 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2019,16(3):169-200
Crime linkage has been the subject of increasing attention in academic research. Research has found support for the principles of behavioural consistency and distinctiveness, which underpin crime linkage, but this does not provide direct evidence as to whether crime linkage is useful in practice. This literature review draws together documentation that refers to the practice of crime linkage, from assessing analysts' efficacy, to discussing the usage of computerised tools to assist with the linkage process, to providing a comprehensive outline of the process itself. The implications of the amount and type of information currently available are discussed, including the variations in practice and terminology that were explored. Avenues for future investigation and the manner in which future research could be conducted are set out in a research agenda. 相似文献
2.
Craig Bennell Rebecca Mugford Holly Ellingwood Jessica Woodhams 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2014,11(1):29-56
The number of published studies examining crime linkage analysis has grown rapidly over the last decade, to the point where a special issue of this journal has recently been dedicated to the topic. Many of these studies have used a particular measure (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, or the AUC) to quantify the degree to which it is possible to link crimes. This article reviews studies that have utilised the AUC and examines how good we are currently at linking crimes (within the context of these research studies) and what factors impact linking accuracy. The results of the review suggest that, in the majority of cases, moderate levels of linking accuracy are achieved. Of the various factors that have been examined that might impact linking accuracy, the three factors that appear to have the most significant impact are crime type, behavioural domain, and jurisdiction. We discuss how generalisable these results are to naturalistic investigative settings. We also highlight some of the important limitations of the linking studies that we reviewed and offer up some strategies for moving this area of research forward. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Jan Martin Winter Jan Lemeire Stijn Meganck Jo Geboers Gina Rossi Andreas Mokros 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2013,10(1):28-56
The empirical support for linkage analysis is steadily increasing, but the question remains as to what method of linking is the most effective. We compared a more theory‐based, dimensional behavioural approach with a rather pragmatic, multivariate behavioural approach with regard to their accuracy in linking serial sexual assaults in a UK sample of serial sexual assaults (n = 90) and one‐off sexual assaults (n = 129). Their respective linkage accuracy was assessed by (1) using seven dimensions derived by non‐parametric Mokken scale analysis (MSA) as predictors in discriminant function analysis (DFA) and (2) 46 crime scene characteristics simultaneously in a naive Bayesian classifier (NBC). The dimensional scales predicted 28.9% of the series correctly, whereas the NBC correctly identified 34.5% of the series. However, a subsequent inclusion of non‐serial offences in the target group decreased the amount of correct links in the dimensional approach (MSA–DFA: 8.9%; NBC: 32.2%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used as a more objective comparison of the two methods under both conditions, confirming that each achieved good accuracies (AUCs = .74–.89), but the NBC performed significantly better than the dimensional approach. The consequences for the practical implementation in behavioural case linkage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Marina Sorochinski C. Gabrielle Salfati 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2010,7(2):109-136
Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Hannah Fawcett Katie Clark 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2015,12(3):247-266
Linkage analysis has, albeit occasionally, been presented in courts across the world as evidence that a series of offences possess behavioural similarities and distinctiveness from other offences, meaning they have probably been committed by the same individual. It is therefore imperative to ascertain how linkage analysis is regarded by juries within the context of deliberations. Three groups of participants (N = 22) eligible for jury duty in England and Wales viewed a simulated rape and murder trial derived from an actual South African case. Linkage analysis formed the sole evidence against the defendant in the two later offences, although DNA matches and eyewitness identifications of the defendant were present in the two earlier offences. Participant deliberations were recorded and subjected to thematic analysis. Five themes were discovered: behavioural consistencies and inconsistencies, physical versus case linkage evidence, barriers to admissibility, potential uses of linkage analysis, and dependence of lay knowledge. Jurors' over‐reliance on erroneous lay knowledge contributed to their conclusion that linkage analysis is, at present, unrepresentative evidence that cannot independently indicate a defendant's culpability. However, participants believed that linkage analysis could be a useful tool within investigations and, with further research evidence, in court in England and Wales. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Jessica Woodhams Tim D. Grant Andrew R. G. Price 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2007,4(1):17-27
Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure—taxonomic similarity (Δs), recently developed in marine ecology—to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). Δs considers progressively higher‐level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and Δs show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, Δs is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, Δs retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision‐making often depends upon incomplete data, Δs has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Matthew Tonkin Jan Lemeire Pekka Santtila Jan M. Winter 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2019,16(2):75-90
This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research. 相似文献
8.
Pekka Santtila Jenny Junkkila N. Kenneth Sandnabba 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2005,2(2):87-103
A sample of serial stranger rape cases ( n = 43) that had occurred in Finland during the years 1983–2001 were studied with the objectives being to: (a) describe the characteristics of the offenders; (b) explore the structure of serial rape; and (c) demonstrate behavioural linkage through an analysis of the offenders' crime scene behaviour using both multidimensional scaling (MDS) and discriminant function analysis (DFA). The material was content analysed with regard to the occurrence of a number of dichotomous variables. The inter‐relationships of the variables was studied using MDS. The analysis revealed two previously identified major modes of interaction with the victim: involvement and hostility. Employing MDS and DFA, it was shown that the offences of different offenders were distinguishable in terms of variation between the offences of different offenders and consistency within the offences of a single offender. Using DFA, the classification accuracy clearly exceeds that expected by chance, and 25.6% of the cases were classified without any error. The results are discussed in relation to their practical utility and previous studies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Angelina Charron Jessica Woodhams 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2010,7(2):165-183
Evidence about a suspect's behavioural similarity across a series of crimes has been presented in legal proceedings in at least three different countries. Its admission as expert evidence, whilst still rare, is becoming more common thus it is important for us to understand how such evidence is received by jurors and legal professionals. This article reports on a qualitative analysis of mock jurors' deliberations about expert linkage analysis evidence. Three groups of mock jurors (N = 20) were presented with the prosecution's linkage analysis evidence from the USA State v. Fortin I murder trial and expert evidence for the defence constructed for the purposes of the study. Each group was asked to deliberate and reach a verdict. Deliberations were video‐recorded and subject to thematic content analysis. The themes that emerged were varied. Analysis suggested that the mock jurors were cautious of the expert evidence of behavioural similarity. In some cases they were sceptical of the expert. They articulated a preference that expert opinion be supported using statistics. Additional themes included jurors having misconceptions concerning what is typical offender behaviour during rape which suggests there is a need for expert linkage analysis evidence regarding behavioural similarities and the relative frequencies of crime scene behaviours. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
C. Gabrielle Salfati Alicia L. Bateman 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2005,2(2):121-144
To examine if serial homicide offenders are consistent across their crimes, a model was developed empirically that could be used to distinguish between crimes that were instrumental and those that were expressive. The first known three offences in each series of 69 US serial homicides committed by 23 offenders, were examined and the instrumental and expressive themes determined. Three models were then explored that test for consistency across these themes. The most liberal model was found to classify all of the offences effectively and to reveal complete consistency across the three crimes for all offenders. The implications of these results for offender profiling and further study of serial homicide are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
C. Gabrielle Salfati Amber M. Horning Marina Sorochinski Gerard N. Labuschagne 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2015,12(1):83-106
Key to understanding the significance of behavioural evidence for linkage purposes is in establishing how consistently an offender displays the same or similar behaviours across their series. There have however to date been very few studies aiming at identifying salient components of offending behaviour that can be used reliably for linking individual crimes as part of a single series. In addition, studies that have been conducted have all dealt with serial homicide in the Western world and have been based on small samples of cases from each country. Some of the recent literature has started to disentangle some of these salient features, notably the victim, violence levels, control, and planning. The current study focused on evaluating the consistency of these features across series, using a sample of serial homicides from South Africa consisting of 30 offenders with a total of 283 victims and 235 crime scenes. Results indicate that the level of interaction with the victim may be influential to the stability or instability of offending patterns across the series. How offenders approach planning in their offence also showed a certain degree of consistency, with patterns of violence being the least consistent across the series of all components tested. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Sunghwan Kim Louise Almond Marie Eyre 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2020,17(1):59-73
The present study aimed to examine the demographic information of sex offenders in South Korea and explore whether a U.K. thematic model of criminal behaviour could be replicated in the Korean context. The 27 variables of crime scene actions derived from 50 Korean sexual offences through a content analysis were analysed with smallest space analysis. Chi‐square was also administered to explore the differences in offender characteristics among behavioural themes. Consequently, three separate action themes, hostility–involvement, theft, and control, were revealed. Next, each case was assigned to one of the dominant or hybrid themes, with 84% of the total cases being classified to the dominant themes. Moreover, there were significant differences in four offender characteristics between the themes: “previous conviction of robbery,” “previous conviction of sexual crime,” “knowing the victim,” and “vehicle use.” These outcomes have implications for the development of the Korean profiling system. 相似文献
13.
Poppy Sun Eric Beauregard Julien Chopin 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2023,20(3):181-195
In addition to being an unusual form of crime, sexual homicide (SH) sometimes includes unusual crime scene behaviours, such as carving on the victim, evisceration (i.e., removal of internal organs), skinning the victim, cannibalism and vampirism. The current study investigates these unusual crime scene behaviours to better understand their meaning as well as to explore whether such behaviours are associated with a specific crime-commission process. Using a sample of 762 SH cases, the study uses a combination of chi-square and stepwise forward logistic regression analyses to identify the differences between cases with and without unusual acts. Findings reveal that SH cases with unusual acts present a specific crime-commission process. This crime-commission process is characterised by a greater level of sadism—as demonstrated by the presence of mutilation and foreign object insertion—as well as a greater level of organisation from the selection of a contact location where the risk of being seen or heard was low. These findings provide a better understanding of these behaviours and could help investigators facing such cases. 相似文献
14.
Louise Almond Lee Rainbow Manuel Ramos Romero Susan Giles Michelle McManus Anastasia Nikolajeva 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2023,20(2):151-161
International comparisons of previous convictions (PC) and crime scene behaviours (CSB) of stranger sexual offences can inform offender profiling strategies; especially the degree to which pragmatic models cross validate across countries. The present study compared PC and CSB of 474 UK and 418 Spanish cases. CSB and PC were analysed using Chi-square. UK stranger sexual offenders displayed a higher proportion of all CSB analysed. UK offenders also had a significantly higher proportion of PC with the exception of violence offences. There were no significant differences in sexual pre-convictions. In both the UK and Spain the CSB ‘reference to the police’ was significantly association with the PC ‘Criminal damage’ no other similar significant associations were found. Explanations for these findings include differences between the countries in regards to: legislation, crime recording processes, data coding processes, with additional consideration of any cultural, environmental and contextual factors. 相似文献
15.
Marina Sorochinski C. Gabrielle Salfati Gerard N. Labuschagne 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2015,12(1):69-82
Recent literature suggests that different ‘styles’ of homicide will most appropriately be reflected in the different types of behaviours committed by offenders during the crime. In the last few years, there has been a move to standardise classification systems of single homicides and establish their cross‐national generalisability. Literature on serial homicide to date has mostly centred on homicides occurring in the US. However, national differences due to factors such as culture, national identity, political, and socio‐economic circumstances may decrease the applicability of these models or certain aspects thereof in other countries and thus must be evaluated. The present study tested the applicability in the South African context of a recently developed US‐based serial homicide crime scene classification framework. Specifically, this study compared the thematic differentiation in planning and violent behaviours that the offenders engage in and how this differentiation compares with that in the US. The sample consisted of 25 homicides that were in total responsible for the murder of 267 victims. Results indicated that overall, the framework is useful and applicable in the South African sample, but important environmental and contextual constraints must be taken into account. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Kerstin Andersson 《Infant and child development》1999,8(4):211-228
The purpose of this study is to investigate the internal structure of behavioural inhibition [cf. Goldsmith, H.H. and Campos, J.J. (1990). Child Development, 61 , 1944–1964]. Observations of 45 2‐year‐olds’ approaching/positive reactions, inhibited/negative reactions, and latencies, when encountering strangers as well as unfamiliar objects, are made in a laboratory setting. The intercorrelations between the six different measures, obtained from the observations, are analysed by means of a multitrait–multimethod matrix. It is concluded, from inspection of the matrix, that aggregations of data into indexes covering different reactions (approaching/positive reactions, inhibited/negative reactions, and latency) and settings (stranger and objects), respectively, are appropriate. To further validate the different indexes, assessments of concurrent variables (separation reactions, reactions to physical intrusion, reactions in a new setting, and maternal ratings of reactions to strangers) are used. The results indicate that all reactions to both social and non‐social novelties can be assigned to one construct, which is in line with the assumption made by Kagan and his co‐workers about behavioural inhibition. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Sandie Taylor Daniel Lambeth Georga Green Rachael Bone Marie A. Cahillane 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2012,9(1):30-51
Two studies explored the validity of dichotomous classification of organised/disorganised serial killers and the four typologies (visionary, mission, hedonistic, and power/control) adopted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Tables documenting crime scene criteria were devised consisting of 50 typifying different crime scenes (Study 1) and 48 crime scenes (taken from the 50 crime scene criteria) with a further 10 motive‐based crime scene criteria (Study 2). Adopting content analysis, crime scenes depicted for 40 (Study 1) and 40 (Study 2) serial killers using secondary sources of data were dichotomously coded for the presence or absence of the crime scene criteria. These data were inputted for agglomerative hierarchical cluster using Ward's method as the clustering algorithm. Differences in the nature of clusters were found for male and female serial killers; however, there was no empirical support for the organised/disorganised classifications or the four typologies. The ‘bottom‐up’ approach resulted in clusters from the different crime scene criteria that helped to understand how these criteria were associated within the serial killer cohort considered. It is concluded that the resulting clusters in both studies support the notion of there being an underlying organised element to most serial murder and that serial murders differ according to the nature of disorganised crime scene criteria present. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Joanna Jamel 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2014,11(3):276-298
An aim of this paper was to examine if the rapist's motivations of anger and power as inferred from rape crime scene behaviours differentiates between rape victim genders. In addition, it was sought to analyse the resistance strategies employed by rape victims to investigate whether gender influences victim–offender behavioural interactions. A sample of 24 female and 12 male rape victims aged from 13 to 39 years were analysed. The data were extracted from the US National Crime Survey, which contained 12 reported cases of male rape. It was hypothesised that the theme of power would be evident from the rapists' behaviour as illustrated by the crime scene actions and victim–offender interaction. Smallest Space Analysis, a multi‐dimensional scaling technique, was employed to identify the themes present in the perpetration of rape. The crime scene actions illustrated several distinctions relating to the theme of power present in the offender's motives irrespective of the victim's gender. An additional finding was that victim resistance strategies differentiated between male and female rape victims. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Stijn Van Daele Wim Bernasco 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2012,9(2):135-148
Many aspects of human behaviour are remarkably stable across times, places and situations. Repetition and predictability also characterises our geographical behaviour. Prior research has confirmed that criminal behaviour is no exception. Offenders tend to recidivate, and recidivists tend to be behaviourally consistent in many aspects, including geographical ones. The present study assesses directional consistency in offending. It reviews the literature on directional consistency. It proposes an improved measure of directional consistency, and empirically uses this measure to explore directional consistency amongst a set of 268 burglars in The Hague. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Helin Hkknen Petri Lindlf Pekka Santtila 《Journal of Investigative Psychology & Offender Profiling》2004,1(1):17-32
The crime scene actions employed by offenders in stranger rapes were analysed in relation to offender characteristics. Data were drawn from an official police database and consisted of stranger rapes occurring in Finland between 1992 and 2001 (n = 100). The structure of dichotomous variables derived through a content analysis of crime scene actions and offender characteristics were analysed with non‐metric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The first analysis revealed three separate action themes, with thematic emphases on Hostility, Involvement or Theft. The MDS‐solution for offender characteristics suggested four themes: Conventional; Psychiatric/Elderly; Criminal/Violent; and Criminal/Property. Each case was assigned to one of the themes or as a hybrid in order to analyse the associations between action themes and characteristics. The only significant association was found between the action theme, Theft and characteristics theme Criminal/Property. The results are discussed in relation to previous research. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献