潜变量交互效应建模: 告别均值结构

潜变量交互效应建模研究近年来有了长足的发展, 但模型中被认为不可缺少的均值结构往往让实际应用工作者却步。本文首先分析了潜变量交互效应模型中均值结构产生的根源; 然后讨论了指标变换与均值结构的关系; 接着提出了一个均值为零的潜变量交互结构, 所建立的模型不需要均值结构, 却不会改变主效应和交互效应等参数; 最后用模拟例子对无均值结构和有均值结构的两种模型的参数估计进行了比较, 结果符合理论预期, 困扰人们多年的均值结构问题从此可以终结。     

A Framework of Statistical Tests For Comparing Mean and Covariance Structure Models

Temporal patterning in blood glucose (BG) consistent with fractals—how BG follows a repetitive pattern through resolutions of time—was used to examine 2 different samples of adolescents with Type 1 diabetes (10–14 years). Sample 1 contained 10 adolescents with longtime series for accurate estimations of long-term dependencies associated with fractals. The second contained 94 adolescents measured multiple times daily over a 2-week period corresponding to psychosocial measures. In both samples, temporal dependencies in BG showed patterns consistent with fractals. In the second sample, temporal dependencies were associated with indicators of vigilant regulation including adolescents' higher anxiety, mothers' higher monitoring, and intrusive support. The existence of temporal dependencies in BG moderated the relationship between glycosylated hemoglobin (Hb_A1c) and indicators of low BG risk but not the relationship between Hb_A1c and high BG risk. These results show how a biomedical indicator may be susceptible to metric issues associated with fractals.     

无均值结构的潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计

潜变量交互效应建模研究近年来有两项重要进展, 一是提出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计及其计算公式; 二是发现无均值结构模型可以取代传统的有均值结构模型, 建模大为简化。但标准化估计是在传统的有均值结构模型中建立的, 在简化的模型中同样适用吗？本文在无均值结构模型的框架内, 给出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化形式、计算公式和建模步骤, 并通过模拟研究比较了极大似然和广义最小二乘两种估计方法、配对乘积指标和全部乘积指标两种指标类型, 结果表明, 在计算交互效应的标准化估计时, 应当使用配对乘积指标建模, 并且首选极大似然估计。     

Comparing Latent Structures of the Grade of Membership,Rasch, and Latent Class Models

This paper focuses on model interpretation issues and employs a geometric approach to compare the potential value of using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model in representing population heterogeneity. We consider population heterogeneity manifolds generated by letting subject specific parameters vary over their natural range, while keeping other population parameters fixed, in the marginal space (based on marginal probabilities) and in the full parameter space (based on cell probabilities). The case of a 2 × 2 contingency table is discussed in detail, and a generalization to 2^J tables with J ≥ 3 is sketched. Our approach highlights the main distinction between the GoM model and the probabilistic mixture of classes by demonstrating geometrically the difference between the concepts of partial and probabilistic memberships. By using the geometric approach we show that, in special cases, the GoM model can be thought of as being similar to an item response theory (IRT) model in representing population heterogeneity. Finally, we show that the GoM item parameters can provide quantities analogous to more general logistic IRT item parameters. As a latent structure model, the GoM model might be considered a useful alternative for a data analysis when both classes of extreme responses, and additional heterogeneity that cannot be captured by those latent classes, are expected in the population. This work was supported by Award #1R03 AG18986-01 from the National Institute on Aging and NIH grant #1R01 CA94212-01. The presentation of the ideas in this paper owes much to discussions with Stephen Fienberg and Brian Junker, Carnegie Mellon University. The author thanks Jim Ramsay and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

Dimensionality of the Latent Structure and Item Selection Via Latent Class Multidimensional IRT Models

With reference to a questionnaire aimed at assessing the performance of Italian nursing homes on the basis of the health conditions of their patients, we investigate two relevant issues: dimensionality of the latent structure and discriminating power of the items composing the questionnaire. The approach is based on a multidimensional item response theory model, which assumes a two-parameter logistic parameterization for the response probabilities. This model represents the health status of a patient by latent variables having a discrete distribution and, therefore, it may be seen as a constrained version of the latent class model. On the basis of the adopted model, we implement a hierarchical clustering algorithm aimed at assessing the actual number of dimensions measured by the questionnaire. These dimensions correspond to disjoint groups of items. Once the number of dimensions is selected, we also study the discriminating power of every item, so that it is possible to select the subset of these items which is able to provide an amount of information close to that of the full set. We illustrate the proposed approach on the basis of the data collected on 1,051 elderly people hosted in a sample of Italian nursing homes.     

Mean Comparison: Manifest Variable Versus Latent Variable

Mean comparisons are of great importance in the application of statistics. Procedures for mean comparison with manifest variables have been well studied. However, few rigorous studies have been conducted on mean comparisons with latent variables, although the methodology has been widely used and documented. This paper studies the commonly used statistics in latent variable mean modeling and compares them with parallel manifest variable statistics. Our results indicate that, under certain conditions, the likelihood ratio and Wald statistics used for latent mean comparisons do not always have greater power than the Hotelling T² statistics used for manifest mean comparisons. The noncentrality parameter corresponding to the T² statistic can be much greater than those corresponding to the likelihood ratio and Wald statistics, which we find to be different from those provided in the literature. Under a fixed alternative hypothesis, our results also indicate that the likelihood ratio statistic can be stochastically much greater than the corresponding Wald statistic. The robustness property of each statistic is also explored when the model is misspecified or when data are nonnormally distributed. Recommendations and advice are provided for the use of each statistic. The research was supported by NSF grant DMS-0437167 and Grant DA01070 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. We would like to thank three referees for suggestions that helped in improving the paper.     

Four Covariance Structure Models for Canonical Correlation Analysis: A COSAN Modeling Approach

The mathematical connection between canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and covariance structure analysis was first discussed through the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach. However, the MIMIC approach has several technical and practical challenges. To address these challenges, a comprehensive COSAN modeling approach is proposed. Specifically, we define four COSAN-CCA models to correspond with four possible combinations of the data to be analyzed and the unique parameters to be estimated. In terms of the data, one can analyze either the unstandardized or standardized variables. In terms of the unique parameters, one can estimate either the weights or loadings. Besides the unique parameters of each COSAN-CCA model, all four COSAN-CCA models also estimate the canonical correlations as their common parameters. Taken together, the four COSAN-CCA models provide the correct point estimates and standard error estimates for all commonly used CCA parameters. Two numeric examples are used to compare the standard error estimates obtained from the MIMIC approach and the COSAN modeling approach. Moreover, the standard error estimates from the COSAN modeling approach are validated by a simulation study and the asymptotic theory. Finally, software implementation and future extensions are discussed.     

Social Network Mediation Analysis: A Latent Space Approach

Psychometrika - A social network comprises both actors and the social connections among them. Such connections reflect the dependence among social actors, which is essential for individuals’...     

Long-Term Development of Employee Well-Being: A Latent Transition Approach

The long-term development of employee well-being is still poorly understood. Consequently, in this three-wave 10-year longitudinal study among Finnish managers (n = 402) the development of employee well-being was examined in in detail. Specifically, the long-term development of job-related affective well-being was investigated at the intra-individual level, simultaneously taking into account positive and negative indicators of well-being, the level of well-being, and the direction of change. Further, the issue how (changes in) job resources and employee well-being were related across time was examined. By applying a novel person-centered methodology, factor mixture modeling and latent transition analysis, the results revealed that the development of favorable job-related affective well-being was eight times more probable than that of unfavorable development across the 10-year study period. Job resources predicted a high level of job-related well-being and, also, job resources increased along with favorable changes in well-being. Overall, the findings contribute to knowledge in the area of positive occupational health psychology by offering a detailed picture of the level of job-related affective well-being and its development over time.     

Testing Specific Hypotheses Concerning Latent Group Differences in Multi-group Covariance Structure Analysis with Structured Means

This article concerns multi-group covariance structure analysis with structured means. The traditional latent selection model is formulated as a special case of phenotypic selection, that is, selection based not on latent variables, but on observed variables. This formulation has the advantage that it enables one to test very specific hypotheses concerning selection on latent variables. Illustrations are given using simulated and real data.     

A Note on Confidence Intervals for Two-Group Latent Mean Effect Size Measures

This note suggests delta method implementations for deriving confidence intervals for a latent mean effect size measure for the case of 2 independent populations. A hypothetical kindergarten reading example using these implementations is provided, as is supporting LISREL syntax.     

Abstract: Sample Size Planning for Latent Curve Models

When designing a study that uses structural equation modeling (SEM), an important task is to decide an appropriate sample size. Historically, this task is approached from the power analytic perspective, where the goal is to obtain sufficient power to reject a false null hypothesis. However, hypothesis testing only tells if a population effect is zero and fails to address the question about the population effect size. Moreover, significance tests in the SEM context often reject the null hypothesis too easily, and therefore the problem in practice is having too much power instead of not enough power.

An alternative means to infer the population effect is forming confidence intervals (CIs). A CI is more informative than hypothesis testing because a CI provides a range of plausible values for the population effect size of interest. Given the close relationship between CI and sample size, the sample size for an SEM study can be planned with the goal to obtain sufficiently narrow CIs for the population model parameters of interest.

Latent curve models (LCMs) is an application of SEM with mean structure to studying change over time. The sample size planning method for LCM from the CI perspective is based on maximum likelihood and expected information matrix. Given a sample, to form a CI for the model parameter of interest in LCM, it requires the sample covariance matrix S, sample mean vector , and sample size N. Therefore, the width (w) of the resulting CI can be considered a function of S, , and N. Inverting the CI formation process gives the sample size planning process. The inverted process requires a proxy for the population covariance matrix Σ, population mean vector μ, and the desired width ω as input, and it returns N as output. The specification of the input information for sample size planning needs to be performed based on a systematic literature review. In the context of covariance structure analysis, Lai and Kelley (2011) discussed several practical methods to facilitate specifying Σ and ω for the sample size planning procedure.     

Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into account and to assess parameter correlations. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods with weakly informative hyperprior distribution and a Gibbs sampler based on two steps of data augmentation. Estimation, model checks, and hypotheses tests are discussed. The new method is illustrated using a real data set, and its performance is evaluated in a simulation study.     

Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Class Approach

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. Their application relies on the assumption of parameter homogeneity, that is, on the assumption that participants do not differ in their parameter values. Tests for parameter homogeneity are proposed that can be routinely used as part of multinomial model analyses to defend the assumption. If parameter homogeneity is found to be violated, a new family of models, termed latent-class multinomial processing tree models, can be applied that accommodates parameter heterogeneity and correlated parameters, yet preserves most of the advantages of the traditional multinomial method. Estimation, goodness-of-fit tests, and tests of other hypotheses of interest are considered for the new family of models. The author thanks Bill Batchelder, Edgar Erdfelder, Thorsten Meiser, and Christoph Stahl for helpful comments on a previous version of this paper. The author is also grateful to Edgar Erdfelder for making available the data set analyzed in this paper.     

Latent growth curve analysis with dichotomous items: Comparing four approaches

A Monte Carlo study was used to compare four approaches to growth curve analysis of subjects assessed repeatedly with the same set of dichotomous items: A two‐step procedure first estimating latent trait measures using MULTILOG and then using a hierarchical linear model to examine the changing trajectories with the estimated abilities as the outcome variable; a structural equation model using modified weighted least squares (WLSMV) estimation; and two approaches in the framework of multilevel item response models, including a hierarchical generalized linear model using Laplace estimation, and Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These four methods have similar power in detecting the average linear slope across time. MCMC and Laplace estimates perform relatively better on the bias of the average linear slope and corresponding standard error, as well as the item location parameters. For the variance of the random intercept, and the covariance between the random intercept and slope, all estimates are biased in most conditions. For the random slope variance, only Laplace estimates are unbiased when there are eight time points.     

The Latent Structure of Psychopathy in Youth: A Taxometric Investigation

Using taxometric procedures, the latent structure of psychopathy was investigated in two studies of children and adolescents. Prior studies have identified a taxon (i.e., a natural category) associated with antisocial behavior in adults as well as children and adolescents. However, features of this taxon suggest that it is not psychopathy but rather a broader class consistent with the construct of life course persistent antisocial behavior. Because the only prior study of youth used a non-clinical sample, the base rate of psychopathy may have been too low to reveal a psychopathy taxon, especially against the background of a broader and more prevalent antisocial behavior taxon. Therefore, this investigation sought to increase the likelihood of finding a psychopathy taxon (should one exist) by increasing its expected base rate through inclusion of clinical cases in the samples studied. Results produced evidence for both a broad antisocial behavior problem taxon consistent with past research and a much lower base rate taxon consistent with prevalence expectations for psychopathy. These findings support the existence of latent taxa for both psychopathy and a broader class of antisocial behavior problems. Further taxometric research appears to be warranted, which should use a broader array of indicators, with greater specificity to psychopathy.     

Eliciting Uncertainties: A Two Structure Approach

We recast subjective probabilities by rejecting behaviourist accounts of belief by explicitly distinguishing between judgements of uncertainty and expressions of those judgements. We argue that this entails rejecting that orderings of uncertainty be complete. This in turn leads naturally to several generalizations of the probability calculus. We define probability-like functions over incomplete algebras that reflect a subject’s incomplete judgements of uncertainty. These functions can be further generalized to (partial) inner and outer measures that reflect approximate elicitations.     

初中留守儿童的学业自我效能与学校适应:潜变量增长模型分析

为考察初中留守儿童学校适应的发展趋势,以及学业自我效能的变化趋势对其的影响,对142名被试进行2年4次追踪测试。结果发现:(1)初中留守儿童学校适应在2年内未出现显著下降,但起始水平和发展速度均存在显著的个体差异;(2)控制性别、社会经济地位的效应后,学业自我效能的初始水平对学校适应的初始水平具有正向影响,但对其发展速度没有影响;(3)学业自我效能的发展速度可正向预测学校适应的发展速度。