Predicting physically violent misconduct in prison: A comparison of four risk assessment instruments

Violence in correctional facilities is an important issue for both prisoners and prison staff. Risk assessment instruments have demonstrated their accuracy in predicting the risk of (re) offending and institutional violence in psychiatric settings, but less is known about their ability to predict violent misconduct in prison. The present study applied four risk assessment instruments (Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk, Historical Clinical Risk Management‐20, Psychopathy checklist – Revised, and Violent Risk Appraisal Guide) to 52 violent offenders in a Swiss prison in order to evaluate the instruments' predictive validities. Outcomes were instances of physically violent, other and any misconduct as recorded in prison files during the 12 months following the prisoners' assessments. Approximately 15% of offenders committed physically violent misconduct and approximately 42% committed any misconduct. The results show that mainly dynamic assessment tools are as good predictors of physically violent misconduct as mainly static assessment tools. Targeting dynamic factors could increase the effectiveness of interventions to reduce the risk of physical violence in prison.     

A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders

Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.     

Using dynamic risk and protective factors to predict inpatient aggression: Reliability and validity of START assessments

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & C. Middleton, 2004) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk assessment instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They also completed Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20; C. D. Webster, K. S. Douglas, D. Eaves, & S. D. Hart, 1997) and Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995) assessments. Outcome data were coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS; S. C. Yudofsky, J. M. Silver, W. Jackson, J. Endicott, & D. W. Williams, 1986). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: is a special explanation required?

Child molesters who target their own children have been described as low risk and not pedophilic. Men who had molested a daughter or stepdaughter (n = 82) were compared to 102 molesters whose only female victims were extrafamilial. Men who offended against their own daughters had less deviant sexual age preferences and were less likely to commit new violent and sexual offenses. However, the father-daughter molesters exhibited an average absolute phallometric preference for prepubertal children and had a violent recidivism rate of 22% in a follow-up of less than 5 years. Actuarial risk assessment instruments (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, and C. A. Cormier, 1998) worked as well for intrafamilial child molesters as for other sex offenders.     

Use of the Personality Assessment Inventory to assess psychopathy in offender populations

The authors investigated the validity of the Antisocial Features (ANT) scale of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; L. C. Morey, 1991) with respect to assessments of psychopathy in 2 offender samples. Study 1 included 46 forensic psychiatric inpatients who were administered the Screening Version of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995). In Study 2, 55 sex offenders were administered the Hare Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991). ANT scores correlated highly with the PCL:SV total score (r = .54) and moderately with the PCL-R total score (r = .40). ANT tapped primarily behavioral symptoms of psychopathy rather than interpersonal and affective symptoms. Also, ANT had low to moderate diagnostic efficiency regarding diagnoses of psychopathy, suggesting that it may be better used as a dimensional rather than categorical measure of this construct.     

Personality, gender and violent criminality in prison inmates

The Antisocial Personality Questionnaire developed by Blackburn and Fawcett (1999) has shown adequate reliability and validity in studies of male offenders interned in psychiatric hospitals. This paper provides data on the APQ collected from a sample of offenders (males and females) without any diagnosed mental illness. The sample was made up of 216 offenders (108 males and 108 females) confined in Spanish prisons. We analyzed the psychometric properties of the instrument and we also examined differences in personality as a function of gender and type of crime (violent vs. non-violent). Results support the reliability of the APQ scales as well as the structure proposed by Blackburn. Additionally, we selected items that discriminate between offenders convicted for violent and non-violent crimes; when these items are factorized, a three-factor structure emerges, resembling Eysenck's model.     

Examining the utility of the PCL:SV as a screening measure using competing factor models of psychopathy

The correspondence between the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991, 2003) was examined in forensic (N = 175) and correctional (N = 188) samples. Intermeasure correlations for Total scores (.95 forensic, .94 correctional) and the original 2-factor, D. J. Cooke and C. Michie's (2001) 3-factor, and R. D. Hare's (2003) 4-facet models (range = .87-.95) were high. Area under the curve values for the PCL:SV were .98 in both samples (cutoff = PCL-R Total score of 25). The PCL:SV performed well as a screen, maximizing false positive relative to false negative errors. Close correlations for prediction of violent recidivism in the correctional sample were obtained for the PCL-R (.42) and PCL:SV (.37). Results indicate the robust relation between the measures is maintained whether they are completed on the basis of file review only or file plus interview and whether the same or different raters score the measures.     

Evaluation and Applications of the Clinically Significant Change Method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version: Implications for Risk-Change Communication

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Über die Treffsicherheit der standardisierten Risikoeinschätzungsverfahren Static-99 und Stable-2007 bei aus einer Sicherungsmaßnahme entlassenen Sexualstraftätern

The accuracy of the recidivism risk assessment instruments Static-99 and Stable-2007 for sexual offenders was examined in a population of released male forensic sexual offenders hospitalized under mandatory treatment in Austria (N?=?96). The Static-99 with an area under the curve (AUC) ?value of 0.86 and the Stable-2007 (AUC?=?0.71) were significantly related to sexual reoffending after nearly 7 years time at risk, thus revealing a predictive power comparable with offenders released from prison (N?=?274). Also the Stable-2007 incrementally supplemented the predictive accuracy of the Static-99. Static-99/Stable-2007 risk/need categories identified a high risk group with a 50?% chance for sexual reconviction within 5 years after release despite a favorable risk assessment as the precondition for release and post-release risk management. On the other hand, there was virtually no relapse in the three lowest risk categories suggesting a specific effect of the mandatory treatment at least in these offender categories. The data suggest that the instruments are valid not only for offenders released from prison but also for forensic sexual offenders.     

Die Vorhersage der Rückfälligkeit entlassener Sexualstraftäter mittels des Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) und dessen Screening-Version (SORAG-SV): Darstellung der differentiellen und prädiktiven Validität

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most important actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. In the meantime, the application of actuarial instruments in recidivism risk assessment for sexual offenders is regarded as state of the art. In addition to results about interrater reliability and concurrent validity we present results about the differential and predictive validity of the SORAG and a screening version of the SORAG (SORAG-SV), which relies only on file information. In order to examine the predictive validity, we used a representative sample of 519 male sexual offenders released from a prison sentence served in one of Austrian´s prisons with a mean follow-up period of 3½ years. Furthermore, we tested the differential validity by dividing the whole sample in different subsamples regarding age, index offense type, and degree of antisociality. Both SORAG and SORAG-SV showed predominantly good predictive accuracy which, however, varied depending on offender subgroup and recidivism category.     

Veränderungen kriminogener Faktoren bei Sexual- und Gewaltstraftätern in Sozialtherapie und Regelvollzug

In the evaluation of offender treatment programmes, recidivism is still the most common measure of success. However, positive effects concerning future delinquent behaviour do not prove that treatment led to changes in the targeted criminogenic risk factors. Furthermore, little is known about whether such changes differ among the various offender types. This study investigated changes in self-reported criminogenic personality patterns and cognitions in a sample of treated and untreated sexual and violent offenders. Specific prosocial changes in treatment targets, such as self-control, excitability and neuroticism were found but similar improvements were also found in untreated offenders. In addition, changes in measured risk factors did not differ between offender types, although self-control, aggressiveness and neuroticism showed significant interactions between offence type and treatment delivery. Whereas treated violent offenders exhibited more positive changes than untreated violent offenders, an inverse pattern was observed in the case of sex offenders. Minor specific treatment effects as well as the limitations of the administered psychometric instruments are discussed as possible explanations for these results.     

A longitudinal examination of the relation between co‐offending with violent accomplices and violent crime

Although the idea that youthful offenders are affected by the company they keep is widely accepted, evidence in support of this idea is based primarily on reports provided by offenders and their peers. As an alternative to relying on reports of criminal behavior, a method that may overestimate the role that peers play in criminal behavior, the current research on co‐offending uses court records to identify and track over time individuals who are known to commit crimes together. The present investigation is the first co‐offending study to track patterns of violent criminal behavior (over an 18‐year period) among a sample of urban offenders and their accomplices. The study tests whether violence “spreads” from violent offenders to those inexperienced in violence. Results indicate that nonviolent offenders who commit their first co‐offense with violent accomplices are at increased risk for subsequent serious violent crime. Findings suggest that lessons of violence can be learned “on the street,” where knowledge is passed along through impromptu social contexts, including those in which offenders commit crimes together. Aggr. Behav. 28:97–108, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Individual,Family, Peer,and Academic Characteristics of Male Juvenile Sexual Offenders

This study examined the individual functioning, interpersonal relations, and academic performance of 115 male juveniles who were divided into 5 demographically matched groups (sexual offenders with peer/adult victims, sexual offenders with child victims, violent nonsexual offenders, nonviolent nonsexual offenders, and nondelinquent youths). Parents and youths completed self-report instruments, behavior rating inventories, and a videorecorded interaction task, and teachers completed a rating measure. Results showed that juvenile sexual offenders, like juvenile nonsexual offenders, had more behavior problems, more difficulties in family and peer relations, and poorer academic performance than did nondelinquent youths. However, juvenile sexual offenders and nonsexual offenders did not differ on any of the measures of individual or interpersonal adjustment. The implications of these findings for research, theory, and treatment are discussed.

La contribution des arbres de classification et de régression dans la prédiction de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels adultes

Clinicians have access to several risk assessment instruments to evaluate the risk or recidivism in sexual offenders. Nevertheless, we seem to have attained a ceiling in the predictive validity of these instruments with the traditional techniques of items agglomeration. In this study, we offer a different combination of predictors with the classification and regression trees, and it, by taking into account the type of sexual offenders. The classification trees are constructed from predictors contained in seven actuarial instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, STATIC-99, STATIC-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R). In general, the classification trees have a higher predictive accuracy than the actuarial instruments and point out that it's not the same predictors that should be considered according to the type of offenders and the type of recidivism. Furthermore, classification trees identify correctly more recidivists than the best actuarial tool. In spite of the contribution of this approach, other types of predictors should also be considered to augment predictive accuracy: dynamic predictors, protective predictors as well as measurements based on theories like those on attachment styles (Marshall, D. R., Barbaree, H. E., 1990. An integrated theory of the etiology of sexual offending. In: Marshall, W. L., Laws, D. R. L., Barbaree, H.E. (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault. New York: Plenum Press, pp. 257-275.) and cognitive distortions (Ward, T., Keenan, T., Hudson, S. M., 2000. Understanding cognitive, affective, and intimacy deficits in sexual offenders: a developmental perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 5, 41–62.).     

II. Symposium für Empirische Forschung in der Forensischen Psychiatrie, Psychologie und Psychotherapie am 25. und 26. Oktober 2012 in Hamburg

The Second Symposium for Empirical Research in Forensic Psychiatry, Psychology and Psychotherapy was held on 25th–26th of October 2012 in Hamburg. The symposium offers young scientists in the field the opportunity to present their research studies. In total 15 papers were presented at the symposium which will be briefly described in this article. The following four topics were discussed:

1. Innovative measurement tools for violent and sexual offenders,
2. Risk assessment tools for violent and sexual offenders,
3. Physiological and neuropsychological assessment of violent and sexual offenders,
4. Treatment approaches for violent and sexual offenders.

The conference is organized annually either by the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (Institute for Sex Research and Forensic Psychiatry), the Saarland University Medical Center (Institute for Forensic Psychology and Psychiatry) or the Asklepios Medical Center Göttingen (Ludwig-Meyer-Institute for Forensic Psychiatry and Psychotherapy). The best three research presentations are honoured with the Ludwig Meyer Award of the Asklepios Psychiatry Niedersachsen GmbH, the Eberhard Schorsch Award of the German Society for Sex Research and the Hermann Witter Award of the Southwest German Academy of Forensic Psychiatry. The proceedings of the conference are expected to be published in autumn 2013 by the Wissenschaftliche Verlagsgesellschaft Berlin.     

Leugnen bei inhaftierten Sexualstraftätern

Many sex offenders deny the charges which is often considered as a barrier to treatment and an indicator of an elevated risk for re-offending. Both expectations, however, are controversial in the literature. In the context of Andrews’ and Bonta’s risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model it seems appropriate to understand denial not as a risk factor but as a responsivity issue. A study of 1,381 sex offenders released from prison in Bavaria since 2004 showed that deniers seldom participated in treatment programs and were rarely granted a temporary licence or early release from prison, compared to those who admitted the offenses. The proportion of deniers was higher in immigrants, married and older persons. For 833 offenders released up to the end of 2008 reconviction records were available, with a time at risk of between 5 and 9 years. No correlations were found between denial and violent, sexual, serious or general recidivism. The implications of these findings relate to the correctional treatment of sex offenders and the need for programs that are adapted to the needs of deniers.     

Driving aggression in forensic and non‐forensic populations: Relationships to self‐reported levels of aggression,anger and impulsivity

A series of four questionnaires — the Buss‐Perry Aggression Questionnaire (AQ), the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS‐11), the Driving Anger Scale (DAS) and a Driving Violence Inventory (DVI) — were administered to a sample of 473 British drivers consisting of undergraduates (N=185), members of the public (N=106) and offenders (N=182) serving sentences in closed prisons in England (violent=82, non‐violent=100). Offenders consistently rated acts of driving aggression as less severe compared with other drivers. Offender attributions of driving violence differed to other drivers in that they were equally likely to perceive obscene gesturing as high or low intensity responses; they also viewed assault as a high intensity response whereas members of the public rated it more severely. Trait levels of anger and aggression were the predictors of driving violence in all groups but previous aggressive behaviour was only a predictor for the offenders. Gender and age were found to be predictors of aggressive driving in non‐offenders. Even with the effects of age controlled, offenders (and violent offenders in particular) scored higher on measures of driving anger and aggression. These data suggest that offenders differ in their perceptions of aggressive behaviours experienced in everyday driving and as a consequence are more likely to commit acts that other drivers perceive as violent. As offenders are known to display similar perceptual biases in other domains, identified as precursors to their aggressive behaviour, it seems likely that experience effects (as reflected in the trait measures) underpin differences in driving aggression between offenders and non‐offenders.     

Psychopathic traits in adolescent offenders: an evaluation of criminal history, clinical, and psychosocial correlates

Although a large body of research has established the relevance of psychopathy to adult offenders, its relevance to adolescent offenders is far less clear. The current study evaluated the clinical, psychosocial and criminal correlates of psychopathic traits in a sample of 226 male and female incarcerated adolescent offenders. According to an 18-item version of the Psychopathy Checklist-Youth Version (PCL-YV; Forth, Kosson, & Hare, 2003), only 9.4% exhibited a high level of psychopathic traits (PCL-YV>/=25). Consistent with past research, higher PCL-YV scores were positively associated with self-reported delinquency and aggressive behavior and were unrelated to emotional difficulties. Although higher PCL-YV scores were associated with the experience of physical abuse, the only psychosocial factor to predict PCL-YV scores was a history of non-parental living arrangements (e.g. foster care). In terms of criminality, a violent/versatile criminal history was positively associated with psychopathic traits. However, PCL-YV scores were unrelated to participants' official criminal records for total, non-violent, violent, and technical violation convictions. In conclusion, the data partially support the construct validity of psychopathy with adolescent offenders, but some inconsistencies with prior adult and adolescent psychopathy research were evident. These issues are discussed.     

Comparing serial homicides to single homicides: A study of prevalence,offender, and offence characteristics in Sweden

Multiple and serial homicides constitute around 1.6% of all homicides but have unusually tragic outcomes. The aims of this study were to report the prevalence serial‐homicide offences and the characteristics of serial‐homicide offenders in a non‐North American context. The study included all convicted serial‐homicide offenders in Sweden from 1973 to 2012 (n = 25), as well as a population‐based control sample of single‐homicide offenders collected during 2007 and 2009 (n = 201). Similar to U.S. findings, approximately 1.6% of homicides could be attributed to serial‐homicide offenders. Serial offenders were more often diagnosed with personality disorders and autism‐spectrum disorders compared with single offenders; and serial offences more often involved victims who were female and unacquainted with the offender, as well as planning, sexual motives, and asphyxia as method of violence. One third of serial offences involved actions aimed at disguising the manner of death; such actions were considerably less common in single‐homicide offences. Few offenders displayed the traditional profile of a serial‐homicide offender; however, one third displayed sexual motives, a rate roughly 10 times higher than that in the single‐homicide group. The study concludes that serial‐homicide offenders should be subjected to forensic‐psychiatric examinations and that research involving cross‐contextual differences and similarities in serial‐homicide offenders is needed.