Prediction and Clinical Inference: Forty Years Later

The earlier controversy between clinical and statistical prediction has faded into the shadows. Few people today challenge the necessity for both approaches in seeking to develop and apply knowledge. In more contemporary terms, the issue of which prediction method should be preferred involves choosing between a quest for historical truth (i.e., correspondence demonstrated by staristical methods) and a quest for narrative truth (i.e., coherence achieved by clinical formulations).     

《英国美学杂志》40年

在千年纪元到来之际,《英国美学杂志》刚好推出它的第40卷,进入它的不惑之年。这就给了我们一个恰当的时机,透过刊物的视野,借几页序言的篇幅,对近半个世纪的美学及其前景做些许概括性的反思。严格说来,本刊的40周岁要到2000年秋季号才满,因为1960年秋天我们的第1期才面世。但是这些周而复始的数字有一种诱惑,鼓动我们将第40卷的首期与新千年的开始重合在一起,其真实理由不过是希望引起特别的注意。     

Divorce and Death: Forty Years of the Charleston Heart Study

ABSTRACT— Forty years of follow-up data from the Charleston Heart Study (CHS) were used to examine the risk for early mortality associated with marital separation or divorce in a sample of more than 1,300 adults assessed on several occasions between 1960 and 2000. Participants who were separated or divorced at the start of the study evidenced significantly elevated rates of early mortality, and these results held after adjusting for baseline health status and other demographic variables. Being separated or divorced throughout the CHS follow-up window was one of the strongest predictors of early mortality. However, the excess mortality risk associated with separation or divorce was completely eliminated when participants who had ever experienced a marital separation or divorce during the study were compared with all other participants. These findings suggest that a key predictor of early death is the amount of time people live as separated or divorced. It is possible that the mortality risk conferred by marital dissolution is due to dimensions of personality that predict divorce as well as a decreased likelihood of future remarriage.     

The Moses

In this essay, the author engages the Moses, a sculpture by Michelangelo, as a transformational object. He does so in light of psychoanalytic interpretations of the statue, including Sigmund Freud’s (who referred to his essay on the Moses as “a joke”), as well as three psychoanalytic interpretations after Freud. While drawing on and combining features of all of these psychoanalytic interpretations, the author makes particular use of Moshe Halevi Spero’s interpretation to affirm a reading of the Moses as representing a paternal figure who not only gives up his anger (and power to castrate) but also actively nourishes his children like a nursing mother. The author also understands Freud’s essay on the Moses to be a form of teasing, which, in part, is why it has been a transformational object for him.

     

Freud and the figure of Moses: the Moses of Freud.

Moses was a lifelong preoccupation of Freud, representing a double and idealized self and object. Freud identified with different aspects of Moses during different periods of development, from concrete hero to abstract ideal. He turned to Moses in the concluding phase of his relationship with Fliess and his self-analysis, and then at other times of crisis. The Moses recreated by Freud is important to the evolution of the concepts of the superego, and his Moses studies simultaneously illuminate the developmental significance of internalization, identification, and abstract symbolic thought. Latently autobiographical, the Moses motif is related to the analysis of unconscious conflict and trauma and to issues of Jewish identity and analytic ideals.     

国学与人文精神

<国学四十讲>问世,我得先睹为快.先读卞孝萱先生的<序>,再读胡阿祥先生的<中华文化及其演变与传承>和<后记>,然后一篇一篇地通读全书.以每日读100页计,前后历时约九日.