The value of RCT evidence depends on the quality of statistical analysis

The authors examined statistical practices in 193 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of psychological therapies published in prominent psychology and psychiatry journals during 1999-2003. Statistical significance tests were used in 99% of RCTs, 84% discussed clinical significance, but only 46% considered-even minimally-statistical power, 31% interpreted effect size and only 2% interpreted confidence intervals. In a second study, 42 respondents to an email survey of the authors of RCTs analyzed in the first study indicated they consider it very important to know the magnitude and clinical importance of the effect, in addition to whether a treatment effect exists. The present authors conclude that published RCTs focus on statistical significance tests ("Is there an effect or difference?"), and neglect other important questions: "How large is the effect?" and "Is the effect clinically important?" They advocate improved statistical reporting of RCTs especially by reporting and interpreting clinical significance, effect sizes and confidence intervals.     

On the assignment of punishment: the impact of general-societal threat and the moderating role of severity

This article reports experiments assessing how general threats to social order and severity of a crime can influence punitiveness. Results consistently showed that when participants feel that the social order is threatened, they behave more punitively toward a crime perpetrator, but only when severity associated with a crime was relatively moderate. Evidence is presented to suggest that people can correct-at least to a degree-for the "biasing" influence of these inductions. Finally, threats to social order appear to increase punitiveness by arousing a retributive desire to see individuals pay for what they have done, as opposed to a purely utilitarian desire to deter future wrongdoing. The authors suggest that individuals sometimes act as intuitive prosecutors when ascribing punishment to an individual transgressor based on their perception of general societal control efficacy.     

Exemplar effects in categorization and multiple-cue judgment

Categorization and multiple-cue judgment are similar tasks, but the influential models in the two areas are different in terms of the computations, processes, and neural substrates that they imply. In categorization, exemplar memory is often emphasized, whereas multiple-cue judgment generally is interpreted in terms of integration of cues that have been abstracted in training. In 3 experiments the authors investigated whether these conclusions derive from genuine differences in the processes or are accidental to the different research methods. The results revealed large individual differences and a shift from exemplar memory to cue abstraction when the criterion is changed from a binary to a continuous variable, especially for a probabilistic criterion. People appear to switch between qualitatively distinct processes in the 2 tasks.     

Fear conditioning and social groups: statistics, not genetics

Humans display more conditioned fear when the conditioned stimulus in a fear conditioning paradigm is a picture of an individual from another race than when it is a picture of an individual from their own race ( Olsson, Ebert, Banaji, & Phelps, 2005 ). These results have been interpreted in terms of a genetic "preparedness" to learn to fear individuals from different social groups ( Ohman, 2005 ; Olsson et al., 2005 ). However, the associability of conditioned stimuli is strongly influenced by prior exposure to those or similar stimuli. Using the Kalman filter, a normative statistical model, this article shows that superior fear conditioning to individuals from other groups is precisely what one would expect if participants perform optimal, Bayesian inference that takes their prior exposures to the different groups into account. There is therefore no need to postulate a genetic preparedness to learn to fear individuals from other races or social groups.     

Dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism in technological potential entrepreneurs

Optimism has been classically considered a key trait in entrepreneurs' personality but it has been studied from a psychological point of view only in recent years. The main aim of this research is to study the relationship between dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism as a function of the tendency to create technology-based businesses. A sample of undergraduate students (n= 205) filled in an electronic questionnaire containing the Life Orientation Test-Revised after they were classified as potential technological entrepreneurs, potential general entrepreneurs and non-potential entrepreneurs. Our results show that technology-based entrepreneurs are more optimistic than non-potential entrepreneurs, whereas there were no statistical differences in pessimism and realism. The results are interpreted theoretically to define the potential entrepreneur and, from an applied perspective, to design training programmes to support future technological entrepreneurs.     

Oscillations in motor priming: positive rebound follows the inhibitory phase in the masked prime paradigm

Masked stimuli can cause partial motor activation and prime responses to subsequent stimuli. Under certain conditions, a biphasic pattern appears, such that positive priming precedes a negative phase, which has been interpreted as evidence of an inhibitory mechanism that suppresses the motor activity caused by the prime. In this article, the authors report evidence for a further reversal in priming: In two experiments, the authors found that the negative compatibility effect was followed by a small but repeatable positive priming effect at an interval of approximately 500 ms between prime and target. Thus, masked primes appear to produce a triphasic pattern of priming, which is consistent with the notion that oscillation between facilitation and inhibition may be a fundamental property of the competitive interactions between response alternatives in the motor system.     

Inclusive cultural empathy for successful global leadership

Empathy is reported in the research literature as a necessary factor in counseling and psychotherapy, but psychologists have historically interpreted empathy through an exclusively individual focus. Most of the research on empathy has been predicated on a definition of empathy as occurring when one person vicariously experiences the feelings, perceptions, and thoughts of another. In Western cultures, the study of empathy focuses exclusively on the individual, whereas in traditional non-Western cultures, empathy more typically involves an inclusive perspective focusing on the individual and significant others in the societal context. This article explores the reframing of "empathy," based on an individualistic perspective, into "inclusive cultural empathy," based on a more relationship-centered perspective, as an alternative interpretation of the empathic process. Psychologists are both the problem and the solution to this dilemma, and the authors call upon the field to take leadership in applying this "inclusive cultural empathy" model.     

When sanctions fail to increase cooperation in social dilemmas: considering the presence of an alternative option to defect

Previous social dilemma research has shown that sanctioning defection may enhance cooperation. The authors argue that this finding may have resulted from restricting participants to two behaviors (cooperation and defection). In this article, the authors introduce the concept of a "social trilemma" (a social dilemma in which an alternative option to defect is present) and tested the effect of a sanction. The authors show that a sanction only increased cooperation and collective interests in the traditional social dilemma. In a social trilemma, the sanction failed because it caused some people to choose the alternative option to defect. Moreover, the results indicate that this was especially the case when people did not expect fellow group members to cooperate. In this case, the sanction even worked counterproductive because it decreased collective interests. It is concluded that allowing individuals to consider alternative options to defect can reveal the potential detrimental effects of sanctioning systems for the collective.     

Application of piecewise hierarchical linear growth modeling to the study of continuity in behavioral development of baboons (Papio hamadryas)

In behavioral science, developmental discontinuities are thought to arise when the association between an outcome measure and the underlying process changes over time. Sudden changes in behavior across time are often taken to indicate that a reorganization in the outcome-process relationship may have occurred. The authors proposed in this article the use of piecewise hierarchical linear growth modeling as a statistical methodology to search for discontinuities in behavioral development and illustrated its possibilities by applying 2-piece hierarchical linear models to the study of developmental trajectories of baboon (Papio hamadryas) mothers' behavior during their infants' 1st year of life. The authors provided empirical evidence that piecewise growth modeling can be used to determine whether abrupt changes in development trajectories are tied to changes in the underlying process.     

The discrepancy-attribution hypothesis: II. Expectation, uncertainty, surprise, and feelings of familiarity

In the accompanying article (B. W. A. Whittlesea & L. D. Williams, 2001), surprising violation of an expectation was observed to cause an illusion of familiarity. The authors interpreted that evidence as support for the discrepancy-attribution hypothesis. This article extended the scope of that hypothesis, investigating the consequences of surprising validation of expectations. Subjects were shown recognition probes as completions of sentence stems. Their expectations were manipulated by presenting predictive, nonpredictive, and inconsistent stems. Predictive stems caused an illusion of familiarity, but only when the subjects also experienced uncertainty about the outcome. That is, as predicted by the discrepancy-attribution hypothesis, feelings of familiarity occurred only when processing of a recognition target caused surprise. The article provides a discussion of the ways in which a perception of discrepancy can come about, as well as the origin and nature of unconscious expectations.     

The limits of empirical studies on research ethics

The results of empirical research in psychology and psychiatry are increasingly being used to formulate as well as understand problems at the interface of law and psychiatry. There has been a proliferation of studies, such as the determinants of individual competence or threat to self or others, the results of which are influencing policy and legislative decisions as well as buttressing holdings in court cases. In this article, I explore the issues of interpretation of epidemiological studies, particularly the role of ideological positions on the design and results of empirical findings, the importance of the way data are interpreted, and the role of ideologies in the way research findings are presented to provide support for policy positions. Two levels of analysis are involved in determining the validity of a study. The first addresses the questions of whether the study meets the statistical and epidemiological requirements for reliable results. These include considerations such as the appropriateness of the study design and methods for gathering and interpreting data. The second focuses on the underlying framework of the study. This involves factors such as the perspectives and values of those conducting the study, the explicit and implicit dominating ideologies where they operate, and the extent to which the study is constructed to reaffirm specific ideologies. This level of analysis is essential for disclosing the influences of ideologies on the results of studies and the way in which data are interpreted. In this article, I try to demonstrate through critiques of selected studies that the first stage of analysis is insufficient without an examination of underlying preconceived values to establish the meaningfulness of results.     

The Limits of Empirical Studies on Research Ethics

The results of empirical research in psychology and psychiatry are increasingly being used to formulate as well as understand problems at the interface of law and psychiatry. There has been a proliferation of studies, such as the determinants of individual competence or threat to self or others, the results of which are influencing policy and legislative decisions as well as buttressing holdings in court cases. In this article, I explore the issues of interpretation of epidemiological studies, particularly the role of ideological positions on the design and results of empirical findings, the importance of the way data are interpreted, and the role of ideologies in the way research findings are presented to provide support for policy positions. Two levels of analysis are involved in determining the validity of a study. The first addresses the questions of whether the study meets the statistical and epidemiological requirements for reliable results. These include considerations such as the appropriateness of the study design and methods for gathering and interpreting data. The second focuses on the underlying framework of the study. This involves factors such as the perspectives and values of those conducting the study, the explicit and implicit dominating ideologies where they operate, and the extent to which the study is constructed to reaffirm specific ideologies. This level of analysis is essential for disclosing the influences of ideologies on the results of studies and the way in which data are interpreted. In this article, I try to demonstrate through critiques of selected studies that the first stage of analysis is insufficient without an examination of underlying preconceived values to establish the meaningfulness of results.     

The "big win" and resistance to extinction when gambling

One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.     

The "Big Win" and Resistance to Extinction When Gambling

One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.     

The many-facet Rasch model in the analysis of the go/no-go association task

This article provides a many-facet Rasch measurement (MFRM) analysis of go/no-go association task (GNAT)-based measures of implicit attitudes toward sweet and salty food. We describe the statistical model and the strategy we adopted to score the GNAT, and we emphasize that, when analyzing implicit measures, MFRM indexes have to be interpreted in a peculiar way. In comparison with traditional scoring algorithms, an MFRM analysis of implicit measures provides some additional information and suffers from fewer limitations and assumptions. MFRM might help to overcome some limitations of current implicit measures, since it directly addresses some known issues and potential confounds, such as those related to a rational zero point, to the arbitrariness of the metric, and to participants’ task-set switching ability.     

Depletion Influences Restraint,But Does It Influence Conflict Identification? Expanding on Osgood and Muraven (2015)

In their 2015 article, Osgood and Muraven showed that cognitive depletion reduces prosocial behaviors but not prosocial attitudes. We expand on the authors’ interpretation by relating their results to recent theorizing on the relationship between prosocial behavior and self-control. This framework distinguishes between the proclivity to identify self-control conflict and the capacity to exercise restraint. Osgood and Muraven's findings can be interpreted as evidence that cognitive depletion in social contexts fails to influence a necessary condition for identifying self-control conflict. However, the results do not yet allow us to conclude that depletion influences capacity to exercise restraint. Further work is needed to understand the mechanisms by which cognitive depletion influences prosocial behavior.     

Figure-background segregation and the formation of illusory figures

Three experiments were carried out to test the relationship between figure-background segregation and illusory contours. Illusory figures are believed to arise as byproducts of figure-background segregation. When, in a scene, part of what should be the background becomes an illusory figure, a mechanism of contour attribution favoring the area in which the illusory figure appears takes place. This mechanism is prevented from operating when the attribution of the contour is inhibited by the presence of "groupable" (connectable) contours. Spatial proximity is one of the factors affecting such grouping: the closer the connectable contours, the more likely is their grouping in a single unit and the less likely is the emergence of an illusory figure. Experimental results showed that the illusory effect was established when contours were prevented from being connected. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that a mechanism of contour attribution is effective in the formation of illusory figures.     

A Step‐by‐Step Guide to Using Secondary Data for Psychological Research

The purpose of this paper is to serve as a primer for those who have never used, or even considered using, secondary data as a resource for psychological research. Secondary data (SD) can provide a unique methodological tool with which to examine psychological issues and can serve as a valuable contribution to a program of research. However, this important resource may often be overlooked because its use can sometimes appear daunting and time‐consuming. We seek to assist new users of SD by describing the process in a step‐by‐step manner. We address both benefits and challenges to anticipate when using SD, and discuss identifying and acquiring potential datasets, creating a personalized dataset, variable creation, statistical considerations, and the potential problem of conflicting findings when large datasets are used by multiple researchers. Our goal is to encourage researchers who are novices to the approach to consider using SD as an adjunct to their program of research.     

Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?

Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales promotions. While statistical forecasting methods are adept at extrapolating regular patterns in series, judgmental forecasters have a potential advantage in that they can take into account the effect of these external influences, which may occur too infrequently for reliable statistical estimation. This suggests that a combination of statistical method and judgment is appropriate. An experiment was conducted to examine how judgmental forecasters make use of statistical time series forecasts when series are subject to sporadic special events. This was investigated under different conditions which were created by varying the complexity of the time series signal, the level of noise in the series, the salience of the cue, the predictive power of the cue information and the availability and presentation of the statistical forecast. Although the availability of a statistical forecast improved judgment under some conditions, the use the judgmental forecasters made of these forecasts was far from optimal. They changed the statistical forecasts when they were highly reliable and ignored them when they would have formed an ideal base‐line for adjustment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unrealistic optimism about future life events: a cautionary note

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purely statistical reasons. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigating people's comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraints and the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. We conclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of an optimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably less about its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed.