Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

People often judge themselves to be at lower risk for various negative life events than are their peers. The two empirical studies presented here show that the magnitude of this optimistic bias can be either negatively or positively related to the perceived frequency of the event, depending on whether people judge their own risk relative to that of an average peer (make comparative risk judgments) or judge their own and an average peer's risk separately (make absolute risk judgments). A new two-process model is presented to account for these results. The model combines a better-than-average heuristic with elements of the singular target-focused and singular- distributional models of Klar and colleagues (Klar & Giladi, 1997, 1999; Klar, Medding, & Sarel, 1996). The empirical results and model have many implications for the study of personal risk judgments, the optimistic bias, and risk-taking behavior.     

Perceived Control and the Optimistic Bias: A Meta-Analytic Review

People consistently believe that negative events are less likely to happen to them than to others. Research suggests a relationship between this optimistic bias and perceived control such that the greater control people perceive over future events, the greater their optimistic bias. We conducted a meta-analysis of 27 independent samples to quantify the size of this relationship and examine what variables moderated the relationship. Greater perceived control was significantly related to greater optimistic bias, but this relationship was moderated by participant nationality, student status, risk status, and the type of optimistic bias measure used. We discuss the findings in the context of primary versus secondary control.     

Cultural variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias for self versus a sibling: is there evidence for self-enhancement in the west and for self-criticism in the east when the referent group is specified?

A culturally relevant framework was used to examine variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias in Westerners and Easterners. Study 1 showed that 136 European Americans compared with 159 Japanese were more likely to predict typical positive events to occur to self than to a sibling. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of typical negative events. Study 2 replicated these findings on the basis of predictions for atypical events in 175 European Americans and 130 Japanese. Across both studies, within-groups analyses indicated that European Americans held an optimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative events, whereas Japanese held a pessimistic bias for negative events. These findings are taken to offer support for presumed cultural differences in self-enhancement and self-criticism between Westerners and Easterners, respectively.     

大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观和悲观偏差估计：直接和间接测量的比较

研究考查了大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观与悲观偏差,并检验不同测量方法是否会产生不同结果。通过对273名大学生进行问卷研究,结果发现：（1）在直接和间接测量时,被试对一般消极事件、意外事故存在乐观偏差,对幸免于意外事故存在悲观偏差;但对一般积极事件,被试在直接测量时出现乐观偏差,在间接测量时为悲观偏差。（2）在两种方法中,被试对意外事故的乐观偏差皆高于一般消极事件,但一般积极事件与幸免于意外事故的结果在直接测量时有显著差异,而在间接测量中差异不显著。（3）在直接测量时,消极事件的发生频率越低乐观偏差越严重,积极事件的发生频率越低则悲观偏差越严重;在间接测量中事件频率与偏差结果相关不显著。     

解释水平视角下的乐观偏差效应

研究基于解释水平理论,考查心理距离对乐观偏差效应的影响。实验从心理距离的事件概率维度、时间距离维度、空间距离维度入手,采用自编的材料对677名被试进行测量,探讨心理距离的远近对乐观偏差产生的影响。结果表明,被试对未来生活事件的判断存在总体上的乐观偏差。在较远的心理距离条件下,被试表现出更大的乐观偏差;而在较近的心理距离中,乐观偏差效应明显减小。但在时间距离维度以及消极事件的概率维度上,表现出与总体乐观偏差不一致的现象。     

Avoiding Anxiety,Being in Denial,or Simply Stroking Self‐Esteem: Why Self‐Positivity?

This article studies the presence, resilience, and direction of the self‐positivity bias under various conditions to examine the role of self‐esteem maintenance as an important antecedent for the bias. Experiment 1 manipulates the perceptions of the uncontrollability of cancer and presence of base‐rate information as independent variables that together eliminate the self‐positivity bias in perceptions of the risk of cancer. Experiment 2 shows the same effects using 4 life events that differ in terms of valence and perceived controllability; that is, base‐rate information affects self‐estimates for uncontrollable life events, reducing the self‐positivity bias, but does not affect self‐estimates for controllable events. Experiment 3 shows that these effects only apply to optimistic individuals who fail to incorporate base‐rate information into their self‐perceptions for controllable events. In contrast, pessimists use base rates to update their self‐estimates irrespective of the controllability of the event. Overall, the pattern suggests that self‐positivity is attenuated in conditions that implicate self‐esteem. Implications for health care marketing are discussed.     

Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias: do Easterners really expect the worst and Westerners really expect the best when predicting future life events?

The authors compared levels of optimistic and pessimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative life events between European Americans and Japanese. Study 1 showed that European Americans compared with Japanese were more likely to predict positive events to occur to self than to others. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of negative events. Study 2 replicated these cultural differences. Furthermore, positive associations emerged between predictions and occurrence of life events 2 months later for both European Americans and Japanese. Across both studies, results of within-groups analyses indicated that both groups expected negative events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (optimistic bias). In addition, Japanese expected positive events to be more likely to occur to others than to self (pessimistic bias). However, European Americans failed to show the expected optimistic bias for positive events.     

Effects of contingencies of self‐worth and sensitivity to indebtedness on optimistic bias in seeking help for depression

The occurrence of the optimistic bias in seeking help for depressive symptoms has been attributed to the threat‐to‐self and equity theories. The current study tested the hierarchical relationships between contingencies of self‐worth (CSW), self‐esteem (SE), sensitivity to indebtedness (SI), and optimistic bias in seeking formal/informal help for depression. An online questionnaire survey was conducted with Japanese university students (n = 1000). Results from structural equation modeling analysis revealed the mediating effect of CSW on SE and optimistic bias. SI was positively related to optimistic bias in symptom recognition and informal help‐seeking. The results suggest that both CSW and SI are responsible for the occurrence of optimistic bias in seeking help for depression. Cognitive patterns in recognizing personal and others' depressive symptoms and needs for seeking help were discussed.     

Confrontation and Beyond: Examining a Stigmatized Target's Use of a Prejudice Reduction Strategy

What can stigmatized individuals do to reduce stereotyping, prejudice, and discrimination when they interact with a biased individual? This paper reviews the social psychological literature that examines how targets can be active agents of prejudice reduction for themselves and their group. The extant literature indicates that a target's direct confrontation of bias can reduce prejudice and discrimination against the target's group but that this strategy can also backlash in the form of increased prejudice and discrimination against the target. Other research indicates that presenting a common‐identity, self‐enhancing feedback, and a self‐affirmation can reduce bias against the target but that they may not reliably change bias against the target's group. We conclude by discussing the need for research on the processes by which stigmatized targets decide to use a given bias‐reduction strategy and on the processes by which specific strategies are effective, either alone or in combination, when delivered by a stigmatized target.     

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Modifying perceived variability: four laboratory and field experiments show the effectiveness of a ready‐to‐be‐used prejudice intervention

We examined whether increasing individuals' perceived variability of an out‐group reduces prejudice and discrimination toward members of this group. In a series of four laboratory and field experiments, we attracted participants' attention to the heterogeneity of members of an out‐group (or not), and then measured their attitudes or behaviors. Perceived variability was manipulated by portraying the out‐group members as having diverse socio‐demographic characteristics and different personality traits and preferences. Prejudice and discrimination were measured in terms of self‐reported prejudice, stereotyping, in‐group bias, social distance, and willingness to do something for the minority group under consideration. In all experiments, perceived variability decreased prejudice and discrimination.     

Am I the typical student? Perceived similarity to student prototypes predicts success

Two studies assessed the relationships between perceived similarity to the college student prototype and academic outcomes. In Study 1, students' similarity to the prototypical good student and their levels of depressed mood were assessed. A year later, students high in depressed mood who did not see themselves as similar to the good student prototype did worse academically. In Study 2, students' perceived favorability and similarity to the prototypical student at their university were assessed along with their levels of neuroticism. Enrollment at their university was then tracked for 5 semesters. Students high in neuroticism who perceived the typical student as both favorable and dissimilar to themselves were less likely to stay enrolled. These findings highlight the importance of perceived dissimilarity in prototype perception, particularly among those high in negative affect.     

A construal level approach to understanding interpersonal processes

Construal level theory proposes that viewing events and objects from a distance (whether physical or psychological) leads individuals to construe them in more abstract, higher‐level ways. At high‐level construal, individuals focus on the overall gist or bigger picture, rather than on situationally‐dependent, concrete details. What patterns then emerge in how construal level relates to interpersonal processes? We find that an individual's construal level has implications for both (a) perceptions of others and (b) social influence. Specifically, our review suggests that high‐level (relative to low‐level) construal is related to greater holistic processing of the self and others by discussing literature linking construal level to person‐perception biases such as the fundamental attribution error and correspondence bias, as well as research on how construal level relates to stereotyping and prejudice. We further review a broad array of research examining social influence relating to self‐relevant feedback, the influence of aggregate versus anecdotal information, and the impact of abstract versus concrete language. We propose future avenues for CLT research relating to person‐perception biases, romantic relationships, stereotyping and prejudice, and the strategic use of construal level in the pursuit of specific interpersonal goals.     

Social support as a moderator of day‐to‐day relationships between daily negative events and daily psychological well‐being

Every day for 3 weeks, a sample of college students described the events that occurred each day and provided measures of their self‐esteem, depressogenic thinking and mood. They also provided measures of depressive symptoms and the social support they perceived from friends and family members. A series of multilevel random coefficient modelling analyses found that daily well‐being was positively related to the number of positive events that occurred each day and was negatively related to the number of negative events. Relationships between well‐being and positive events were stronger for more than for less depressed participants and relationships between well‐being and negative events were weaker for participants who perceived more support from friends than for those who perceived less support. Depression was unrelated to the strength of relationships between negative events and well‐being, and the social support from friends was unrelated to relationships between positive events and well‐being. Surprisingly, relationships between negative events and well‐being were stronger for participants who perceived more support from family members than for those who perceived less support. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

News of Y2K and Experiencing Y2K: Exploring the Relationship Between the Third-Person Effect and Optimistic Bias

This study gauged Americans' beliefs about predicted Y2K problems during the weeks before New Year 2000. It examined the alleged relationship between the third-person effect and the social psychological theory of optimistic bias. The third-person effect predicts that people judge themselves less influenced than others by media messages. To explain the effect, some media researchers have drawn on optimistic bias, which posits that people judge themselves less likely than others to experience negative life events. Few researchers, however, have directly tested the empirical relationship between the two perceptual approaches. As hypothesized, respondents judged themselves less influenced than others by news reports about Y2K (third-person perception) and less likely than others to experience Y2K problems (optimistic bias). But the study did not find the hypothesized relationship between the approaches. Furthermore, third-person perception and optimistic bias were functions of mirror opposite blocks of predictors. The findings indicate that third-person perception is not merely a media case study of optimistic bias. We suggested that people use different criteria to estimate experiencing events and believing media messages about the events.     

The roles of perceived task interdependence and group members' interdependence in the development of collective efficacy in university student group contexts

Background . Although the relationship between collective efficacy and group performance has been frequently investigated, a few studies have investigated the development of collective efficacy. Aim . This paper proposes some determinants of collective efficacy in small university groups. Group level hypotheses and research questions relating collective efficacy to collective cognition activities, task interdependence, self‐efficacy for group work, and collective orientation were posited. Sample . The sample comprised 145 university students in 40 work‐groups. Method . A two‐phase longitudinal design was employed in the context of university student groups. All groups were required to perform interdependent academic tasks. Aggregated variables were used after testing for within‐group agreement. Results . The results of multiple regression analysis provided some evidence that the more group members perceived themselves to be interdependent in the early stages of group work and assigned their tasks interdependently during group processes, the more likely they were to develop high collective efficacy in the final stages of group work. Collective efficacy was also related to the group average of self‐efficacy for group work especially when task interdependence was perceived to be high. Conclusions . The results suggest that forming groups with capable university students in group work, strengthening university students' perceptions of themselves as interdependent in the early stages of academic group work and assigning interdependent group tasks during group work may contribute to the development of high collective efficacy.     

Cognitive influences on perceived change in social support,motivation, and symptoms of depression

In settings ranging from informal conversation to medical interviews and surveys, people are often asked to judge changes in subjective states that are important to them, such as perceived social support, motivation to cope with a negative life event, and symptoms of depression. How accurate are such reports, and are there theories of cognitive processes that can predict the most likely types of misperception? To address these questions, self-report survey data were collected from 224 recently unemployed adults. The measures assessed current subjective states of self and social environment at two times, separated by 4 months. Among the results, persons with high self-esteem were particularly likely to underestimate changes for the worse between the two survey waves–evidence of an optimistic response bias. When the dimension being judged was unstable and ambiguous, people were more likely to overestimate improvement–evidence of an optimistic response style. The findings were evaluated in terms of alternate theories of cognitive bias and in terms of implications for subsequent studies and application.     

Subjective Social Standing and Conflict Tactics Among Young Kenyan Men

Efforts to reduce intimate partner violence in sub‐Saharan Africa generally approach the issue through the lens of women's empowerment. These efforts include foci on women's relative power in the relationship, educational background, and earning potential. The social status of men has largely been ignored, reducing the potential to involve them in efforts to demote intimate partner violence. In this study we consider whether a man's perceived social status predicts conflict tactics, and whether these tactics are mediated by loneliness and collective self‐esteem from a community‐based sample in semi‐rural Kenya (n = 263). We find that men who reported lower perceived social status also reported significantly more frequent violent conflicts with their intimate partners. This association was significantly, and completely, mediated by lower collective self‐esteem and higher loneliness. There was no direct association between subjective social status and negotiation‐based conflict tactics, although there was an indirect association. Men with higher perceived social status reported higher collective self‐esteem, and men with higher collective self‐esteem reported more negotiation‐based conflict tactics. These findings inform efforts to reduce intimate partner violence by involving men, showing potential to reduce violence by building self‐esteem among men—particularly those with lower perceived social status.     

The fit between dignity self‐construal and independent university norms: Effects on university belonging,well‐being,and academic success

Universities struggle with students’ low well‐being and high dropout rates. High (compared to low) fit between students’ self‐construal and perceived university norms might help to prevent these problems. A strong dignity self‐construal (i.e., the understanding that one's worth is independent of others) is adaptive if university norms stress independence. The more a university norm is perceived as stressing independence, the better the fit for students with a strong (vs. weak) dignity self‐construal. Thus, if students with a strong dignity self‐construal perceive a university norm as stressing independence, they should develop a greater sense of belonging to the university and, in turn, experience higher well‐being, more motivation, and lower dropout intention. A longitudinal study with two measurement points conducted with students from 18 universities (N = 719) provided support for these predictions. This underlines the relevance of the fit between student and (perceived) school characteristics for the higher education sector.     

乐观偏差的内隐效应

乐观偏差是一个普遍存在的现象。采用Greenwald的内隐联想测验测验（IAT）方法和Inquisit专业软件,以60名大学生为被试对乐观偏差进行了考察。结果发现：乐观偏差存在内隐效应;乐观偏差的内隐效应在性别上没有差异。