Instance‐based learning in dynamic decision making

This paper presents a learning theory pertinent to dynamic decision making (DDM) called instancebased learning theory (IBLT). IBLT proposes five learning mechanisms in the context of a decision‐making process: instance‐based knowledge, recognition‐based retrieval, adaptive strategies, necessity‐based choice, and feedback updates. IBLT suggests in DDM people learn with the accumulation and refinement of instances, containing the decision‐making situation, action, and utility of decisions. As decision makers interact with a dynamic task, they recognize a situation according to its similarity to past instances, adapt their judgment strategies from heuristic‐based to instance‐based, and refine the accumulated knowledge according to feedback on the result of their actions. The IBLT's learning mechanisms have been implemented in an ACT‐R cognitive model. Through a series of experiments, this paper shows how the IBLT's learning mechanisms closely approximate the relative trend magnitude and performance of human data. Although the cognitive model is bounded within the context of a dynamic task, the IBLT is a general theory of decision making applicable to other dynamic environments.     

Goal‐Proximity Decision‐Making

Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision‐making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal‐option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed mechanism, Goal‐Proximity Decision‐making (GPD), is implemented within the ACT‐R cognitive framework. GPD is found to be more efficient than RL in three maze‐navigation simulations. GPD advantages over RL seem to grow as task difficulty is increased. An experiment is presented where participants are asked to make choices in the absence of prior reward. GPD captures human performance in this experiment better than RL.     

Self‐Control Moderates Decision‐Making Behavior When Minimizing Losses versus Maximizing Gains

We examined (1) whether people would be more responsive to the delayed consequences of their decisions when attempting to minimize losses than when attempting to maximize gains in a history‐dependent decision‐making task and (2) how trait self‐control would moderate such an effect. In two experiments, participants performed a dynamic decision‐making task where they chose one of two options on each trial. The increasing option always gave a smaller immediate reward but caused future rewards for both options to increase. The decreasing option always gave a larger immediate reward but caused future rewards for both options to decrease. In Experiment 1 where the two options had equivalent expected value in the long run, participants were more prone to select the increasing option, which yielded larger benefits on future trials, in the loss‐minimization condition than in the gain‐maximization condition. Trait self‐control moderated the effect of losses by enhancing the effect for low self‐control participants while attenuating it for high self‐control participants. In Experiment 2 where selecting the increasing option was suboptimal, low self‐control participants still attempted to reduce losses on future trials by selecting the increasing option more often than high self‐control participants. These results suggest that decision makers value delayed consequences of their actions more in a losses domain relative to a gains domain and low self‐control individuals are more susceptible to such an effect. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Characteristic Objects Method: A New Distance‐based Approach to Multicriteria Decision‐making Problems

Multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) methods are concerned with the ranking of alternatives based on expert judgements made using a number of criteria. In the MCDM field, the distance‐based approach is one popular method for obtaining a final ranking. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) is a commonly used example of this kind of MCDM method. The TOPSIS ranks the alternatives with respect to their geometric distance from the positive and negative ideal solutions. Unfortunately, two reference points are often insufficient, especially for nonlinear problems. As a consequence of this situation, the final result ranking is prone to errors, including the rank reversals phenomenon. This study proposes a new distance‐based MCDM method: the characteristic objects method. In this approach, the preferences of each alternative are obtained on the basis of the distance from the nearest characteristic objects and their values. For this purpose, we have determined the domain and Fuzzy number set for all the considered criteria. The characteristic objects are obtained as the combination of the crisp values of all the Fuzzy numbers. The preference values of all the characteristic object are determined on the basis of the tournament method and the principle of indifference. Finally, the Fuzzy model is constructed and is used to calculate preference values of the alternatives, making it a multicriteria model that is free of rank reversal. The numerical example is used to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method with respect to results from the TOPSIS method. The characteristic objects method results are more realistic than the TOPSIS results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Decision‐Making Model for Addressing Problematic Behaviors in Counseling Students

Gatekeeping is the subject of continued discourse in the counseling profession. With revisions to the ACA Code of Ethics (American Counseling Association, 2014 ), recent litigation (Keeton v. Anderson‐Wiley, 2010 ; Ward v. Wilbanks, 2009 ), and focused attention on value conflicts in counseling (Francis & Dugger, 2014 ), counselor educators' role as gatekeepers is expanding. In addition to this expanding role, counselor educators are responsible for being culturally and developmentally sensitive in interpreting, applying, and enforcing the codes and standards with counseling students. This article proposes a decision‐making model that integrates feminist, multicultural, systems theory, and social‐constructivist ethical decision‐making principles to address problematic behaviors in counseling students.     

Career Decision‐Making Self‐Efficacy Change in Italian High School Students

The authors explored the effects of a structured‐group career intervention among 280 Italian high school students. Hierarchical linear models indicated the intervention's effectiveness in increasing career decision‐making self‐efficacy and, consequently, career exploration, but not in decreasing career choice anxiety. In addition, partial confirmation was found for the moderating effects of participants' expectations and motivation to change on the relationship between career decision‐making self‐efficacy and career choice anxiety. The findings support the development of a systematic vocational guidance program in Italian schools.     

Teaching in contexts: Designing a competency‐based religious studies program

Over the last decade, the discipline of religious studies has promoted religious literacy as both an invaluable contribution to curriculum and an indispensable social good. While much has been written on the importance of the study of religion for the development of religious literacy, little attention has been given to the identification of the disciplinary skills and content knowledge (or what we refer to as religious studies competencies) a student develops through extended study of religion. In this essay, we present an example of how to integrate a religious studies competency‐based model into program design and implementation. We argue that the transition to a competency‐based religious studies program has two potential benefits. First, competency program design provides an opportunity to redesign and update religious studies programs in a more responsible manner that aligns with our students, institution, discipline, and profession. Second, competency program design facilitates the conditions where we can better avoid duplicating the much criticized world religions paradigm.     

Combining Information for Quantitative Decision‐making in Drug Development

Taking decisions during the development of a new drug requires combining many and varying pieces of information. The interconnections between these different pieces of information are often only partially known and in some cases merely conjectured. Despite this uncertainty, decisions must be taken – often with regard to the balance of risk and benefit – in order to make progress. A clear, consistent and efficient methodology for describing the structure of a project and the comprehensive state of knowledge at any point in time is required in order to add transparency to the decision process. A viable methodology must allow for a natural characterization of the uncertainty inherent in the drug development process and a relatively easy implementation. We present a possible solution that satisfies these requirements. The foundation of the proposed approach is based on a beta‐binomial update mechanism well known in Bayesian statistics. This work provides a consistent framework for solving hierarchical multicriteria decision problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotional Intelligence and Career Decision‐Making Self‐Efficacy: National and Gender Differences

This study examined the effect of emotional intelligence (EI) on career decision‐making self‐efficacy (CDMSE) in an East Asian context, as well as the moderating roles of gender and country. Data were collected from undergraduate students from China (N = 149) and South Korea (N = 218). The results showed that all 4 factors of EI were positively related to CDMSE. Moreover, while the effects of 3 EI factors on CDMSE were found to be greater among the Chinese students than the South Korean students, no gender differences were detected. By introducing cultural influences, the findings provide important implications for career counseling.     

Relating Decision‐Making Styles to Social Orientation and Time Approach

Research on decision‐making styles has shown that stylistic differences matter for real‐life outcomes, but less research has explored how styles relate to other differences between individuals. Heeding a call for a more systematic and theoretically sound understanding of decision‐making styles, we investigated the relation between decision‐making styles and specific aspects of social orientation and approach to time in two samples (students, n = 118, and police investigators, n = 90). The results of regression analyses showed that decision‐making styles are related to specific differences in social orientation and time approach. Furthermore, results of structural equation model analyses suggested possible adjustments to the proposed two‐factor model for decision‐making styles (Dewberry, Juanchich, & Narendran, 2013a ). © 2017 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Behavioural Investigative Advice: Assistance to Investigative Decision‐making in Difficult‐to‐detect Murder

This paper considers the role of a Behavioural Investigative Adviser (BIA) in assisting with the decision‐making of a Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) in difficult‐to‐detect murder investigations. It outlines the need for transparent evidence‐based decision‐making from both the SIO and the BIA. The paper then details a piece of relevant, applied research that can assist in this end. The research utilised a pragmatic psychology approach to analyse 312 detected murder cases from the Serious Crime Analysis Section database. Some significant patterns relating what is known about the offence at different stages of an investigation and inferences regarding the offender were found, indicating that certain offence information can lead to some reliable predictions and these can be refined as more information becomes available. However, the findings also indicate that base rate frequencies and a ‘best‐guess’ methodology may be as, if not more, useful than more complex statistical techniques when providing advice to investigations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Use of Touch in Counseling: An Ethical Decision‐Making Model

Although some counselors have advocated for the limited use of touch in counseling, others have argued that touch has no place within the counseling relationship. Despite the controversy, the use of touch has been shown to have a number of therapeutic benefits; however, there are few ethical decision‐making models that are appropriate for considering the use of touch in counseling. The authors discuss the controversy surrounding the use of touch and the benefits/contraindications of touch. The 5 ethical principles of counseling are also examined; a new ordering of the principles is presented as a useful ethical decision‐making model when considering the use of touch in counseling.     

The Impact of “Display‐Set” Options on Decision‐Making

The way a choice set is constructed can have a significant influence on how individuals perceive and evaluate their options, and make decisions between them. Here, I examine whether a “display set” of visible but unavailable options can exert these same types of influences on whether or not to choose a single (target) item. Across a series of experiments, purchase intent is increased when the display set and target are drawn from the same category, but decreased when the display and target items are mismatched. This effect is shown to depend on perceived similarity, such that increasing display‐target similarity increases purchase intent towards the target. Furthermore, contrary to the predictions made by previous neural and behavioral research on choice sets, the relative value and/or number of display‐only items have no significant impact on these decisions. These findings reveal a novel choice behavior in commonly encountered settings such as online marketplaces. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theory of mind selectively predicts preschoolers’ knowledge‐based selective word learning

Children can selectively attend to various attributes of a model, such as past accuracy or physical strength, to guide their social learning. There is a debate regarding whether a relation exists between theory‐of‐mind skills and selective learning. We hypothesized that high performance on theory‐of‐mind tasks would predict preference for learning new words from accurate informants (an epistemic attribute), but not from physically strong informants (a non‐epistemic attribute). Three‐ and 4‐year‐olds (N = 65) completed two selective learning tasks, and their theory‐of‐mind abilities were assessed. As expected, performance on a theory‐of‐mind battery predicted children's preference to learn from more accurate informants but not from physically stronger informants. Results thus suggest that preschoolers with more advanced theory of mind have a better understanding of knowledge and apply that understanding to guide their selection of informants. This work has important implications for research on children's developing social cognition and early learning.     

Live training versus e‐learning to teach implementation of listener response programs

Discrete‐trial teaching is an effective teaching procedure that must be implemented with high integrity to produce optimal learning. Behavioral Skills Training (BST) has proven effective for staff training; however, BST is time and labor intensive. Computer‐based instruction (CBI) programs may provide a more efficient and cost‐effective alternative to live training if the CBI program is as effective as BST in producing accurate implementation. The current study compared CBI to BST to train novice undergraduate students to conduct discrete‐trial teaching. Participants were randomly assigned to one of the two conditions and assessed prior to and after the completion of training. Results indicated that although both BST and CBI were effective at training participants to implement discrete‐trial teaching, BST was slightly but significantly more effective whereas CBI quickly created a return on the investment of product development.     

Cognitive Reflection Predicts Real‐Life Decision Outcomes,but Not Over and Above Personality and Decision‐Making Styles

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), designed to assess the ability to inhibit intuition to process a problem analytically, predicts people's performance in many normative judgement and decision‐making tasks (e.g., Bayesian reasoning, conjunction fallacy and ratio bias). However, how the CRT predicts normative decision‐making performance is unclear, and little is known about the extent to which the CRT predicts real‐life decision outcomes. We investigate the role of the CRT in predicting real‐life decision outcomes and examine whether the CRT predicts real‐life decision outcomes after controlling for two related individual differences: the Big Five personality traits and decision‐making styles. Our results show that greater CRT scores predict positive real‐life decision outcomes measured by the Decision Outcome Inventory. However, the effect size was small, and the relationship became non‐significant after statistically controlling for personality and decision‐making styles. We discuss the limited predictive role of cognitive reflection in real‐life decision‐making outcomes, along with the roles of personality and decision‐making styles. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using equivalence‐based instruction to teach piano skills to college students

The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the effects of equivalence‐based instruction (EBI) on the emergence of basic music reading and piano playing skills. Six female college students learned to identify three musical chord notations given their respective dictated names. Participants also learned to play chords on the piano following the dictated name of the chord, and to play the chords to a song on a keyboard. Results are consistent with past research, in that stimuli became substitutable for each other and acquired a common behavioral function. Data suggest that EBI was an effective and efficient procedure to teach adults to read musical notation, as well as play chords and a song on a piano keyboard.     

Preference‐based Learning of Ideal Solutions in TOPSIS‐like Decision Models

Combining established modelling techniques from multiple‐criteria decision aiding with recent algorithmic advances in the emerging field of preference learning, we propose a new method that can be seen as an adaptive version of TOPSIS, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution decision model (or at least a simplified variant of this model). On the basis of exemplary preference information in the form of pairwise comparisons between alternatives, our method seeks to induce an ‘ideal solution’ that, in conjunction with a weight factor for each criterion, represents the preferences of the decision maker. To this end, we resort to probabilistic models of discrete choice and make use of maximum likelihood inference. First experimental results on suitable preference data suggest that our approach is not only intuitively appealing and interesting from an interpretation point of view but also competitive to state‐of‐the‐art preference learning methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.