Self-Prophecy Effects and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Replication

Psychological research has found that being asked to predict one's future actions can bring about subsequent behavior consistent with the prediction but different from what would have occurred had no prediction been made. In a 1987 study, Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, and Young induced an increase in voting behavior by means of such a "self-prophecy" effect: Undergraduates who were asked to predict whether they would vote in an upcoming election were substantially more likely to go to the polls than those who had not been asked for a prediction. This paper reports on a replication of the Greenwald study conducted among a larger group of respondents more representative of the American electorate. No evidence was found that self-prophecy effects increase voter turnout.     

Implementation Intentions,Information, and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Study

Are citizens more likely to vote when they are asked to make plans about how they will cast their ballots? Such planning—typically described as “implementation intentions”—has been shown to increase many types of desirable behaviors, including exercising and healthy eating, receiving vaccinations, physical rehabilitation, and recycling. Important earlier work in political science suggests voter turnout can also be influenced by implementation intention interventions, whereby electors are prompted to “make a plan” to vote (Nickerson & Rogers, 2010 ), though this finding has gone largely unreplicated. At the same time, elections management bodies (EMBs) in many contexts regularly conduct informational campaigns in the period leading up to elections, though little is known about the effects of such efforts upon turnout. Using data from an online experiment conducted at the time of the 2015 Canadian Federal Election, we demonstrate that implementation intention interventions can improve voter turnout but that this effect is conditional upon electors being exposed to informational materials about how to vote in the election. When survey respondents were provided with information on voting requirements and methods, and then prompted with questions forcing them to contemplate the act of casting their ballots, we observe a sizable increase in turnout rates.     

These Eyes: A Rejoinder to Panagopoulos on Eyespots and Voter Mobilization

Get‐out‐the‐vote mailers using explicit social pressure consistently increase electoral turnout; however, they often generate a negative reaction or backlash. One approach to increase turnout, yet alleviate backlash, may be to use implicit social pressure. An implicit social pressure technique that has shown promise is to display a set of eyes. Researchers contend eyes generate a feeling of being watched, which cues subjects to act in more prosocial ways to demonstrate compliance with social norms. Several studies support this argument, including two voter mobilization studies. The technique has not been widely tested, however, in the political context. In five randomized field experiments, we test the impact on turnout of mobilization mailers using eye displays. We extend previous research by testing for differences in effects between male and female eyes and across political cultures. The effects are substantively and statistically weak at best and inconsistent with previous findings.     

Beyond Total Effects: Exploring the Interplay of Personality and Attitudes in Affecting Turnout in the 2009 German Federal Election

This article addresses the role of personality traits in shaping electoral participation. Utilizing data from a survey conducted after the 2009 German federal election, we demonstrate that agreeableness and emotional stability increase electoral participation. Yet, the main contribution of this article is to link personality traits to attitudinal predictors of turnout. First, we demonstrate that attitudinal variables, including party identification, civic duty, political interest, and internal and external efficacy, serve as intervening variables that mediate the impact of personality on turnout. Second, we show that personality traits exhibit conditioning effects by increasing or decreasing the impact of attitudinal factors on electoral participation. By and large, the evidence suggests that openness, agreeableness, and extraversion render attitudes (somewhat) less powerful in affecting turnout while conscientiousness and emotional stability increase the impact of certain attitudes. Third, we put indirect and conditioning effects together and find that emotional stability and conscientiousness exhibit particularly interesting patterns of effects: They shape attitudes in a way conducive to higher turnout and make these attitudes more powerful in affecting voter participation.     

Do Subtle Linguistic Interventions Priming a Social Identity as a Voter Have Outsized Effects on Voter Turnout? Evidence From a New Replication Experiment

An ongoing debate in political psychology is about whether small wording differences have outsized behavioral effects. A leading example is whether subtle linguistic cues embedded in voter mobilization messages dramatically increase turnout. An initial study analyzing two small‐scale field experiments argued that describing someone as a voter (noun) instead of one who votes (verb) increases turnout rates 11 to 14 points because the noun activates a person's social identity as a voter. A subsequent study analyzing a large‐scale field experiment challenged this claim and found no effect. But questions about the initial claim's domain of applicability persist. The subsequent study may not have reproduced the conditions necessary for the psychological phenomenon to occur, specifically the electoral contexts were not competitive or important enough for the social identity to matter. To address the first of these critiques, as well as other potential explanations for different results between the first two studies, we conduct a large‐scale replication field experiment. We find no evidence that this minor wording change increases turnout levels. This research provides new evidence that the strategy of invoking the self does not appear to consistently increase turnout and calls into question whether subtle linguistic cues have outsized behavioral effects.     

Inside the Black Box of Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative Campaigns Mobilize

The debate over the effect of negative campaigns on vote turnout has not been settled. At present, studies demonstrating a mobilization effect seem to have the upper hand. However, neither side has offered a compelling theory of the causal mechanisms that connect negative campaigns and voter turnout. This paper identifies three mechanisms of voter motivation—republican duty, candidate threat, and perceived closeness of the election—and tests the influence of negative ads on each. The findings suggest that each works to plausibly translate exposure to negative advertisement into increased participation.     

Why the Sky Didn't Fall: Mobilizing Anger in Reaction to Voter ID Laws

Since 2002, 26 U.S. states have passed laws that enhance restrictions on voters who intend to register and vote. Most have been sponsored by Republican legislators and passed by states with large Republican majorities. Proponents of such identification requirements argue that they are necessary to ensure the integrity of the electoral system by reducing voter fraud. Many Democrats have cried foul, arguing these laws are motivated by crass partisanship at best, and racial bias at worst, because they disproportionately disenfranchise minorities. Surprisingly, empirical evidence for significant demobilization, either in the aggregate or among Democrats specifically, has thus far failed to materialize. We suspect strong emotional reactions to the public debate about these laws may mobilize Democrats, counterbalancing the disenfranchising effect. We find support for this conjecture in a nationally representative survey and an experiment where news frames about voter identification (ID) laws are carefully manipulated.     

A Closer Look at Eyespot Effects on Voter Turnout: Reply to Matland and Murray

Implicit social pressure, applied via exposure to eyespots in nonpartisan, direct‐mail blandishments to vote, has been shown using randomized field experiments to raise turnout in elections. Similar eyespot effects have been observed across a wide range of prosocial behaviors. A series of recent replications conducted by Matland and Murray (2015) have failed to consistently produce statistically significant eyespot effects on voter turnout, however, leading the authors to conclude the effects observed in previous research were likely illusory. In this article, I rebut this claim, arguing that an alternative, more circumspect interpretation of the authors’ key results points to a different conclusion that supports the notion that eyespots likely stimulate voting, especially when taken together with previous findings.     

The Effects of Investments in theSocial Capital of Youth on Political and Civic Behavior in Young Adulthood: A Longitudinal Analysis

This paper uses the National Education Longitudinal Study to examine whether early investments in the social capital of young people produce greater political involvement and civic virtue in young adulthood. Parental involvement in a young person's life, youth religious involvement, and voluntary association participation were some of the forms of social capital hypothesized to influence adult political behavior. Structural equations modeling was used to trace the effects of the presence of social capital as early as the 8th grade year in shaping young adult political and civic behavior. The analysis shows that early extensive connections to others, close familial relationships, religious participation, and participation in extracurricular activities in one's youth are significant predictors of greater political and civic involvement in young adulthood.     

Effects of Poll Reports on Voter Preferences

Relative strengths of the bandwagon (or rally-around-the-winner) affect and its converse, the underdog effect, were tested. Study 1 was conducted with registered Republicans during 4 days immediately prior to the first major Republican primary of 1996. Bogus poll data showing Dole leading Forbes (or Dole trailing Forbes) were presented to voters who then voted their preference for Dole, Forbes, or neither. Findings showed a significantly greater tendency to vote for Dole over Forbes when the bogus poll showed Dole leading Forbes than when it showed Dole trailing. Thus, results supported the bandwagon effect and, furthermore, showed it as explaining 6% of the variance in voter preferences. In Study 2, participants were given bogus poll data on 2 personally relevant issues and were then asked to vote their preferences on the issues. Participants had extremely strong consensus preferences on one issue and were not influenced by bogus poll data. On the second issue that involved moderately strong consensus preferences, bogus polls significantly affected votes, supporting the bandwagon effect. Bandwagon effects were stronger for women compared with men, and for 2 of 3 PAD (Pleasantness, Arousability, Dominance) basic temperament factors; that is, for individuals with more arousable and less dominant temperaments. Implications for other personality variables were noted.     

Moral Reasoning Effects on Political Participation

In this study, respondents who agreed to participate in a computer-administered interview were presented with information and questions about public interest groups, followed by the Defining Issues Test of moral reasoning (DIT). Respondents with high DIT scores stressed morally central over morally peripheral considerations in deciding whether to participate in public interest groups. Less sophisticated reasoners showed the opposite pattern. Morally central considerations also had a much greater impact on the probability that sophisticated respondents would attempt to participate in public interest groups after completing the interview. The analysis included controls for potential confounding variables such as cognitive ability, education, prior political participation, and gender. The findings imply motivational differences between advantaged and disadvantaged population groups. Such differences may help to account for the differing strategies and successes of political organizations mobilizing these groups.     

Perceived Disagreement and Heterogeneity in Social Networks: Distinct Effects on Political Participation

ABSTRACT

Although the coexistence of conflicting opinions in society is the very core of democracy, people’s tendency to avoid conflict could keep them away from political discussion and participation. On the other hand, being exposed to diverse political views could motivate citizens to participate. We conducted secondary analyses on two 2013 ITANES (Italian National Election Studies) probability samples in order to test the hypotheses that perceived network disagreement (between an individual and her/his discussion partners) and heterogeneity (among discussants holding different political opinions) exert independent and opposite effects on political participation through motivation and knowledge. Results converged in showing that disagreement dampened, while heterogeneity encouraged, political participation (voting, propensity to abstain in future, offline and online activism, and timing of vote decision) by decreasing or increasing, respectively, political interest and, in turn, knowledge.     

父子依恋、母子依恋与儿童应激下皮质醇反应的关系

本研究以北京115名五、六年级的学生为被试,采用儿童版特里尔社会应激测试(Trier Social Stress Test for Children,TSST-C),探究父子依恋、母子依恋与儿童应激下皮质醇反应的关系。研究分别在基线阶段、TSST-C开始前、TSST-C结束后、TSST-C结束后的10分钟、25分钟和50分钟收集儿童的唾液样本,并让儿童完成亲子依恋问卷。采用SPSS 20.0进行方差分析和回归分析。结果发现:(1)安全型父子依恋儿童的应激下皮质醇反应显著高于不安全型父子依恋儿童,反映在皮质醇值和皮质醇基于增加的曲线下面积(area under the curve with respect to increase,AUCI)两个指标上;(2)不同母子依恋类型儿童的应激下皮质醇反应(即皮质醇值和AUCI)不存在显著差异;(3)在控制了人口学变量之后,父子依恋依旧可以显著地正向预测儿童的皮质醇反应(皮质醇AUCI),但母子依恋对儿童皮质醇反应的预测作用不显著,且父子依恋对儿童皮质醇反应的预测作用边缘显著大于母子依恋对儿童皮质醇反应的预测作用。研究结果表明,安全型父子依恋与儿童应激下更高的皮质醇反应相关。     

背景应激对静息态下大脑自发神经活动的影响

本研究试图探究背景应激对应激相关大脑自发神经活动的影响。使用日常应激水平作为背景应激的量化指标,同时,使用静息态fMRI技术采集了个体在静息态下的大脑自发神经活动,并使用局部一致性(ReHo)作为指标。结果发现,背景应激越高的个体,右侧海马(扩展到丘脑和脑干)静息态下局部一致性水平越高。结果提示,经历了高背景应激的个体会表现出边缘系统脑区自发神经活动的持续活跃状态。     

The Political Consequences of Combat: Post‐Traumatic Stress and Political Alienation Among Vietnam Veterans

On average, veterans are more civically and politically engaged than civilians. Previous research on the effects of military service, however, did not account for differences in veterans’ combat experiences. Using survey data from a representative sample of Vietnam veterans, this study presents evidence that veterans who were exposed to severe combat trauma and veterans who exhibited attitudes and fears associated with post‐traumatic stress had significantly lower levels of political efficacy and trust. The negative consequences of combat exposure and post‐traumatic stress are not mitigated when veterans have quality social support or when they seek professional counseling. These findings inform political psychology and hold implications for claims regarding the empowering influence of service in the U.S. military, increased political engagement, in particular. Among Vietnam veterans, exposure to severe combat trauma and post‐traumatic stress were both associated with reduced political efficacy and trust.     

应激心向对女性急性应激条件下工作记忆的影响

为了探讨急性应激对工作记忆的影响,本研究引入应激心向的概念。实验1验证了社会性评价冷压测试的可靠性以及应激对工作记忆的影响,并探讨了急性应激条件下一般性应激心向与工作记忆的关系,结果发现,在急性应激条件下,女性的一般性应激心向不影响工作记忆的表现。实验2通过视频诱发被试的情境性应激心向,发现应激有利心向组比应激有害心向组在工作记忆任务中的表现更好,且应激心向得分与任务的准确率成正相关。研究表明女性在应激条件下的工作记忆表现会受具体应激心向的影响。     

Under Pressure: The Effects of Stress on Positive and Negative Relationship Behaviors

This study investigates the effects of acute stress on positive and negative relationship behaviors, specifically assurances and attention to alternatives. A sample of 129 college students were randomly assigned to either a high or low stress condition, then were led to believe they had the opportunity to interact with attractive potential relationship partners and list compliments about their current partner. Results indicated that those in the high stress condition gave their partner fewer assurances and paid more attention to alternatives. These results suggest that when individuals experience acute stress, they may engage in fewer positive relationship behaviors and more behaviors that are potentially harmful to their relationship.     

The Differential Effects of Right‐Wing Authoritarianism and Social Dominance Orientation on Political Intolerance

Decades of scholarship have identified several determinants of political intolerance, including authoritarianism and normative threat. Previous attempts in the literature to associate other individual difference variables (i.e., social dominance orientation [SDO]) and situational variables (i.e., out‐groups' gains in power and status) have been unsuccessful. Using a dual‐process motivational (DPM) model framework, in Study 1 we found that SDO predicted political intolerance of groups with hierarchy‐attenuating political objectives. This relationship was consistent over and above other well‐known predictors of political intolerance, including right‐wing authoritarianism (RWA). RWA predicted intolerance of groups with both hierarchy‐attenuating and cohesion‐reducing objectives. In Study 2, we manipulated whether an immigrant‐rights group was described as presenting a normative threat or as gaining power and status. Consistent with extant findings, RWA moderated the effect of normative threat on political intolerance. More interestingly, SDO moderated the effect of gains in power and status on political intolerance. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

心理应激对大白鼠自由基损伤的影响

本研究将动物分为实验模型５天、１０天、２０天组及对照组,并检测各组动物上述组中的ＬＰＯ、ＳＯＤ、ＣＡＤ水平进行了分析;研究因噪音诱发的心理应激反应时大白鼠脑、肝、肺、心、肾组织自由基损伤情况及防御酶的活性变化;结果发现：在心理应激反应条件下,动物各组织的因自由基反应而使ＬＰＯ含量升高、防御酶ＳＯＤ、ＣＡＤ活性下降,表明：１．心理应激可以诱发动物体内产生大量的自由基,并对脑、肝、肺、心、肾组织产生影