Estimating the parameters of the latent population distribution

Under consideration is a test battery of binary items. The responses ofn individuals are assumed to follow a Rasch model. It is further assumed that the latent individual parameters are distributed within a given population in accordance with a normal distribution. Methods are then considered for estimating the mean and variance of this latent population distribution. Also considered are methods for checking whether a normal population distribution fits the data. The developed methods are applied to data from an achievement test and from an attitude test.     

Estimating latent correlations between repeated testings

A model for longitudinal latent structure analysis is proposed. We assume that test scores for a given mental or attitudinal test are observed for the same individuals at two different points in time. The purpose of the analysis is to fit a model that combines the values of the latent variable at the two time points in a two-dimensional latent density. The correlation coefficient between the two values of the latent variable can then be estimated. The theory and methods are illustrated by a Danish dataset concerning psychic vulnerability.     

Multidimensional Latent Markov Models in a Developmental Study of Inhibitory Control and Attentional Flexibility in Early Childhood

We demonstrate the use of a multidimensional extension of the latent Markov model to analyse data from studies with repeated binary responses in developmental psychology. In particular, we consider an experiment based on a battery of tests which was administered to pre-school children, at three time periods, in order to measure their inhibitory control (IC) and attentional flexibility (AF) abilities. Our model represents these abilities by two latent traits which are associated to each state of a latent Markov chain. The conditional distribution of the test outcomes given the latent process depends on these abilities through a multidimensional one-parameter or two-parameter logistic parameterisation. We outline an EM algorithm for likelihood inference on the model parameters; we also focus on likelihood ratio testing of hypotheses on the dimensionality of the model and on the transition matrices of the latent process. Through the approach based on the proposed model, we find evidence that supports that IC and AF can be conceptualised as distinct constructs. Furthermore, we outline developmental aspects of participants’ performance on these abilities based on inspection of the estimated transition matrices.     

The EM algorithm for latent class analysis with equality constraints

The EM algorithm is a popular iterative method for estimating parameters in the latent class model where at each step the unknown parameters can be estimated simply as weighted sums of some latent proportions. The algorithm may also be used when some parameters are constrained to equal given constants or each other. It is shown that in the general case with equality constraints, the EM algorithm is not simple to apply because a nonlinear equation has to be solved. This problem arises, mainly, when equality constrints are defined over probabilities indifferent combinations of variables and latent classes. A simple condition is given in which, although probabilities in different variable-latent class combinations are constrained to be equal, the EM algorithm is still simple to apply.The authors are grateful to the Editor and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. C. C. Clogg and R. Luijkx are also acknowledged for verifying our results with their computer programs MLLSA and LCAG, respectively.     

Likelihood inference on the underlying structure of IRT models

The assumptions underlying item response theory (IRT) models may be expressed as a set of equality and inequality constraints on the parameters of a latent class model. It is well known that the same assumptions imply that the parameters of the manifest distribution have to satisfy a more complicated set of inequality constraints which, however, are necessary but not sufficient. In this paper, we describe how the theory for likelihood-based inference under equality and inequality constraints may be used to test the underlying assumptions of IRT models. It turns out that the analysis based directly on the latent structure is simpler and more flexible. In particular, we indicate how several interesting extensions of the Rasch model may be obtained by partial relaxation of the basic constraints. An application to a data set provided by Educational Testing Service is used to illustrate the approach.We thank Dr. Gorman and Dr. Rogers of the Educational Testing Service for providing the data analyzed in Section 4. We also thank three reviewers for comments and suggestions.This revised article was published online in August 2005 with the PDF paginated correctly.     

Rasch's model for reading speed with manifest explanatory variables

In educational and psychological measurement we find the distinction between speed and power tests. Although most tests are partially speeded, the speed element is usually neglected. Here we consider a latent trait model developed by Rasch for the response time on a (set of) pure speed test(s), which is based on the assumption that the test response times are approximately gamma distributed, with known shape parameters and scale parameters depending on subject ability and test difficulty parameters. In our approach the subject parameters are treated as random variables having a common gamma distribution. From this, maximum marginal likelihood estimators are derived for the test difficulties and the parameters of the latent subject distribution. This basic model can be extended in a number of ways. Explanatory variables for the latent subject parameters and for the test parameters can be incorporated in the model. Our methods are illustrated by the analysis of a simulated and an empirical data set.     

Latent variable selection in multidimensional item response theory models using the expectation model selection algorithm

The aim of latent variable selection in multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models is to identify latent traits probed by test items of a multidimensional test. In this paper the expectation model selection (EMS) algorithm proposed by Jiang et al. (2015) is applied to minimize the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for latent variable selection in MIRT models with a known number of latent traits. Under mild assumptions, we prove the numerical convergence of the EMS algorithm for model selection by minimizing the BIC of observed data in the presence of missing data. For the identification of MIRT models, we assume that the variances of all latent traits are unity and each latent trait has an item that is only related to it. Under this identifiability assumption, the convergence of the EMS algorithm for latent variable selection in the multidimensional two-parameter logistic (M2PL) models can be verified. We give an efficient implementation of the EMS for the M2PL models. Simulation studies show that the EMS outperforms the EM-based L₁ regularization in terms of correctly selected latent variables and computation time. The EMS algorithm is applied to a real data set related to the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire.     

Rating scale analysis with latent class models

A general approach for analyzing rating data with latent class models is described, which parallels rating models in the framework of latent trait theory. A general rating model as well as a two-parameter model with location and dispersion parameters, analogous to Andrich's Dislocmodel are derived, including parameter estimation via the EM-algorithm. Two examples illustrate the application of the models and their statisticalcontrol. Model restrictions through equality constrains are discussed and multiparameter generalizations are outlined.     

Implementing continuous non-normal skewed distributions in latent growth mixture modeling: An assessment of specification errors and class enumeration

Abstract

Recent advances have allowed for modeling mixture components within latent growth modeling using robust, skewed mixture distributions rather than normal distributions. This feature adds flexibility in handling non-normality in longitudinal data, through manifest or latent variables, by directly modeling skewed or heavy-tailed latent classes rather than assuming a mixture of normal distributions. The aim of this study was to assess through simulation the potential under- or over-extraction of latent classes in a growth mixture model when underlying data follow either normal, skewed-normal, or skewed-t distributions. In order to assess this, we implement skewed-t, skewed-normal, and conventional normal (i.e., not skewed) forms of the growth mixture model. The skewed-t and skewed-normal versions of this model have only recently been implemented, and relatively little is known about their performance. Model comparison, fit, and classification of correctly specified and mis-specified models were assessed through various indices. Findings suggest that the accuracy of model comparison and fit measures are dependent on the type of (mis)specification, as well as the amount of class separation between the latent classes. A secondary simulation exposed computation and accuracy difficulties under some skewed modeling contexts. Implications of findings, recommendations for applied researchers, and future directions are discussed; a motivating example is presented using education data.     

Probability matrix decomposition models

In this paper, we consider a class of models for two-way matrices with binary entries of 0 and 1. First, we considerBoolean matrix decomposition, conceptualize it as alatent response model (LRM) and, by making use of this conceptualization, generalize it to a larger class of matrix decomposition models. Second,probability matrix decomposition (PMD) models are introduced as a probabilistic version of this larger class of deterministic matrix decomposition models. Third, an algorithm for the computation of the maximum likelihood (ML) and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of the parameters of PMD models is presented. This algorithm is an EM-algorithm, and is a special case of a more general algorithm that can be used for the whole class of LRMs. And fourth, as an example, a PMD model is applied to data on decision making in psychiatric diagnosis. This paper is based on a chapter of the first author's doctoral dissertation, written at the University of Leuven and supervised by Paul De Boeck.     

A generalized rasch model for manifest predictors

A logistic regression model is suggested for estimating the relation between a set of manifest predictors and a latent trait assumed to be measured by a set ofk dichotomous items. Usually the estimated subject parameters of latent trait models are biased, especially for short tests. Therefore, the relation between a latent trait and a set of predictors should not be estimated with a regression model in which the estimated subject parameters are used as a dependent variable. Direct estimation of the relation between the latent trait and one or more independent variables is suggested instead. Estimation methods and test statistics for the Rasch model are discussed and the model is illustrated with simulated and empirical data.     

Consistent estimation in the rasch model based on nonparametric margins

Consider the class of two parameter marginal logistic (Rasch) models, for a test ofm True-False items, where the latent ability is assumed to be bounded. Using results of Karlin and Studen, we show that this class of nonparametric marginal logistic (NML) models is equivalent to the class of marginal logistic models where the latent ability assumes at most (m + 2)/2 values. This equivalence has two implications. First, estimation for the NML model is accomplished by estimating the parameters of a discrete marginal logistic model. Second, consistency for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NML model can be shown (whenm is odd) using the results of Kiefer and Wolfowitz. An example is presented which demonstrates the estimation strategy and contrasts the NML model with a normal marginal logistic model.This research was supported by NIMH traning grant, 2 T32 MH 15758-06 and by ONR contract N00014-84-K-0588. The author would like to thank Diane Lambert, John Rolph, and Stephen Fienberg for their assistance. Also, the comments of the referees helped to substantially improve the final version of this paper.     

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some—but not all—of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

A latent class approach to fitting the weighted Euclidean model,clascal

A weighted Euclidean distance model for analyzing three-way proximity data is proposed that incorporates a latent class approach. In this latent class weighted Euclidean model, the contribution to the distance function between two stimuli is per dimension weighted identically by all subjects in the same latent class. This model removes the rotational invariance of the classical multidimensional scaling model retaining psychologically meaningful dimensions, and drastically reduces the number of parameters in the traditional INDSCAL model. The probability density function for the data of a subject is posited to be a finite mixture of spherical multivariate normal densities. The maximum likelihood function is optimized by means of an EM algorithm; a modified Fisher scoring method is used to update the parameters in the M-step. A model selection strategy is proposed and illustrated on both real and artificial data.The second author is supported as Bevoegdverklaard Navorser of the Belgian Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.     

Estimation of nonlinear mixed-effects continuous-time models using the continuous-discrete extended Kalman filter

Many intensive longitudinal measurements are collected at irregularly spaced time intervals, and involve complex, possibly nonlinear and heterogeneous patterns of change. Effective modelling of such change processes requires continuous-time differential equation models that may be nonlinear and include mixed effects in the parameters. One approach of fitting such models is to define random effect variables as additional latent variables in a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model of choice, and use estimation algorithms designed for fitting SDE models, such as the continuous-discrete extended Kalman filter (CDEKF) approach implemented in the dynr R package, to estimate the random effect variables as latent variables. However, this approach's efficacy and identification constraints in handling mixed-effects SDE models have not been investigated. In the current study, we analytically inspect the identification constraints of using the CDEKF approach to fit nonlinear mixed-effects SDE models; extend a published model of emotions to a nonlinear mixed-effects SDE model as an example, and fit it to a set of irregularly spaced ecological momentary assessment data; and evaluate the feasibility of the proposed approach to fit the model through a Monte Carlo simulation study. Results show that the proposed approach produces reasonable parameter and standard error estimates when some identification constraint is met. We address the effects of sample size, process noise variance, and data spacing conditions on estimation results.     

Comparing Latent Structures of the Grade of Membership,Rasch, and Latent Class Models

This paper focuses on model interpretation issues and employs a geometric approach to compare the potential value of using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model in representing population heterogeneity. We consider population heterogeneity manifolds generated by letting subject specific parameters vary over their natural range, while keeping other population parameters fixed, in the marginal space (based on marginal probabilities) and in the full parameter space (based on cell probabilities). The case of a 2 × 2 contingency table is discussed in detail, and a generalization to 2^J tables with J ≥ 3 is sketched. Our approach highlights the main distinction between the GoM model and the probabilistic mixture of classes by demonstrating geometrically the difference between the concepts of partial and probabilistic memberships. By using the geometric approach we show that, in special cases, the GoM model can be thought of as being similar to an item response theory (IRT) model in representing population heterogeneity. Finally, we show that the GoM item parameters can provide quantities analogous to more general logistic IRT item parameters. As a latent structure model, the GoM model might be considered a useful alternative for a data analysis when both classes of extreme responses, and additional heterogeneity that cannot be captured by those latent classes, are expected in the population. This work was supported by Award #1R03 AG18986-01 from the National Institute on Aging and NIH grant #1R01 CA94212-01. The presentation of the ideas in this paper owes much to discussions with Stephen Fienberg and Brian Junker, Carnegie Mellon University. The author thanks Jim Ramsay and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

An Introduction to Network Psychometrics: Relating Ising Network Models to Item Response Theory Models

In recent years, network models have been proposed as an alternative representation of psychometric constructs such as depression. In such models, the covariance between observables (e.g., symptoms like depressed mood, feelings of worthlessness, and guilt) is explained in terms of a pattern of causal interactions between these observables, which contrasts with classical interpretations in which the observables are conceptualized as the effects of a reflective latent variable. However, few investigations have been directed at the question how these different models relate to each other. To shed light on this issue, the current paper explores the relation between one of the most important network models—the Ising model from physics—and one of the most important latent variable models—the Item Response Theory (IRT) model from psychometrics. The Ising model describes the interaction between states of particles that are connected in a network, whereas the IRT model describes the probability distribution associated with item responses in a psychometric test as a function of a latent variable. Despite the divergent backgrounds of the models, we show a broad equivalence between them and also illustrate several opportunities that arise from this connection.     

Studying Multivariate Change Using Multilevel Models and Latent Curve Models

In longitudinal research investigators often measure multiple variables at multiple points in time and are interested in investigating individual differences in patterns of change on those variables. In the vast majority of applications, researchers focus on studying change in one variable at a time. In this article we consider methods for studying relations1.1ips between patterns of change on different variables. We show how the multilevel modeling framework, which is often used to study univariate change, can be extended to the multivariate case to yield estimates of covariances of parameters representing aspects of change on different variables. We illustrate this approach using data from a study of physiological response to marital conflict in older married couples, showing a substantial correlation between rate of linear change on different stress-related hormones during conflict. We also consider how similar issues can be studied using extensions of latent curve models to the multivariate case, and we show how such models are related to multivariate multilevel models.     

Structural Equation Modeling of Social Networks: Specification,Estimation, and Application

Psychologists are interested in whether friends and couples share similar personalities or not. However, no statistical models are readily available to test the association between personalities and social relations in the literature. In this study, we develop a statistical model for analyzing social network data with the latent personality traits as covariates. Because the model contains a measurement model for the latent traits and a structural model for the relationship between the network and latent traits, we discuss it under the general framework of structural equation modeling (SEM). In our model, the structural relation between the latent variable(s) and the outcome variable is no longer linear or generalized linear. To obtain model parameter estimates, we propose to use a two-stage maximum likelihood (ML) procedure. This modeling framework is evaluated through a simulation study under representative conditions that would be found in social network data. Its usefulness is then demonstrated through an empirical application to a college friendship network.     

多水平项目反应理论模型在测验发展中的应用

作者简要介绍了多水平项目反应模型,对多水平项目反应理论与通常项目反应理论之间的关系进行了探讨,得到了多水平项目反应模型参数与通常项目反应模型参数之间的关系,并讨论了多水平项目反应模型的推广模型。通过一个实际例子,用多水平项目反应模型对测验中项目的特征进行分析;检验个体水平和组水平预测变量对能力参数的影响;对项目功能差异进行分析。最后文章就多水平项目反应理论模型的优势与不足进行了讨论