Doubting one’s doubt: A formula for confidence?

People feel, think, and act differently when doubt rather than confidence is accessible. A traditional perspective on the accessibility of doubt holds that multiple sources of doubt activation should lead to increased levels of uncertainty. In contrast, we find that under some conditions two sequential sources of doubt activation result in decreased levels of uncertainty. We suggest that this follows from a meta-cognitive process in which people come to “doubt their doubt.” In Study 1, individuals with chronically accessible uncertainty who were further exposed to an uncertainty manipulation paradoxically reported reduced uncertainty. In Study 2, participants were first primed with doubt or certainty and then exposed to a manipulation associated with either confidence (i.e., head nodding) or doubt (head shaking). Supporting the idea that people can either trust or doubt their own doubts, head nodding (vs. shaking) accentuated (vs. attenuated) the impact of the initial doubt vs. certainty manipulation. These findings advance the literature on meta-cognition, self-doubt, and embodiment, and may have clinical applications.     

Two distinct neural networks functionally connected to the human hippocampus during pattern separation tasks

Previous studies from the human, rodent, and computational research have identified the hippocampus as a core structure mediating pattern separation. However, these investigations have generally focused on the role of distinct subregions of the hippocampus. Less well-understood is how the human hippocampus interacts with other brain regions to support pattern separation. The purpose of this study was to identify the functional networks connected to the hippocampus during delayed matching-to-sample pattern separation tasks promoting either spatial or temporal interference. Results revealed that the hippocampus was functionally connected to two distinct networks. The first network was characterized by correlated activation with the hippocampus primarily in bilateral temporal regions. This network was differentially related to spatial and temporal conditions, suggesting hippocampal connectivity to this network is modulated by interference type. A secondary network was characterized by correlations between the left hippocampus and several other sparsely distributed brain regions, including bilateral cerebellum and frontal and temporal cortices. This network was not modulated by interference type, suggesting that it may be a domain-general pattern separation network. We suggest that the hippocampus may play a role in integrating information from these networks to support performance on pattern separation tasks.     

Reducing uncertainty by anticipation in traffic – The effect of situational characteristics and criticality on behavioral,subjective, and psychophysiological parameters

Uncertainty in traffic may have fatal consequences when operating a vehicle. Enabling drivers to anticipate the behavior of other traffic participants can help reduce uncertainty and thus increase traffic safety. A multi-method approach using behavioral, subjective, and psychophysiological measures was applied to investigate the relation of uncertainty and anticipation. Participants (N = 30) observed simulated, video-based urban traffic scenarios while skin conductance responses were recorded. They had to indicate, by pressing a button, (1) the moment they first thought another vehicle might merge into their lane (low certainty anticipation) and (2) the moment they were sure another vehicle would merge (high certainty anticipation). Situational characteristics served as anticipatory cues that helped predict the other vehicle’s action. On the one hand, in this study, target cues (which are clearly related to the target’s activity) served to indicate an imminent lane change. On the other hand, context cues represented visible precursors in the traffic environment, e.g. a traffic sign pointing to upcoming road work. In addition, causal cues were used to determine a reason for the other vehicle to change lanes (in this instance, a construction site blocking the lane). These situational characteristics, as well as the situational criticality, were manipulated to gain insights into factors influencing the process of anticipation. Results offered an effect of target cue moderated by criticality: especially in more critical situations, the anticipation rate and subjective certainty increased, and physiological activation was reduced with target cues. Overall, the anticipatory performance was found to be a predictor of subjective certainty (through its impact on skin conductance responses). The findings are discussed in the context of the methodological approach for applications in traffic.     

An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon

Two studies tested the hypothesis that the knew-it-all-along effect may be the result of an inferential process. Specifically, that individuals use their feelings and experiences (e.g., "This question seems so familiar to me, surely I would have known the answer!") to infer their judgement. Drawing on subjective feelings such as certainty or perceptual fluency, individuals can use a provided actual value as an informational cue and draw inferences from it. Thus, the occurrence of the knew-it-all-along effect is expected to depend on the experienced feeling of confidence with a question. This feeling may indicate to an individual that he or she did know the answer; a total lack of such a feeling may suggest that he or she never would have known the answer. In the reported studies we both measured feelings of confidence (Study 1) and induced them by manipulating perceptual fluency (Study 2) to show that the knew-it-all-along effect proves to be a phenomenon of inferences based on these experienced feelings. Participants experiencing high confidence or high perceptual fluency more strongly assimilated their judgements to the provided values, than did participants experiencing low confidence or low perceptual fluency.     

An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon

Two studies tested the hypothesis that the knew-it-all-along effect may be the result of an inferential process. Specifically, that individuals use their feelings and experiences (e.g., "This question seems so familiar to me, surely I would have known the answer!") to infer their judgement. Drawing on subjective feelings such as certainty or perceptual fluency, individuals can use a provided actual value as an informational cue and draw inferences from it. Thus, the occurrence of the knew-it-all-along effect is expected to depend on the experienced feeling of confidence with a question. This feeling may indicate to an individual that he or she did know the answer; a total lack of such a feeling may suggest that he or she never would have known the answer. In the reported studies we both measured feelings of confidence (Study 1) and induced them by manipulating perceptual fluency (Study 2) to show that the knew-it-all-along effect proves to be a phenomenon of inferences based on these experienced feelings. Participants experiencing high confidence or high perceptual fluency more strongly assimilated their judgements to the provided values, than did participants experiencing low confidence or low perceptual fluency.     

Subjective probabilities and values of socio-economic events at different degrees of uncertainty

Abstract.— The relationship between values (negative] positive) and subjective probabilities was studied. Stimuli consisted of unique socio-economic events represented in the political discussion in Finland. Uncertainty was measured as hesitation in estimating probabilities, The results indicated different relationships between values and probability estimates at different degrees of uncertainty. At certainty the relation was u-shaped, at some uncertainty the variables were nearly uncorrelated, and at uncertainty an linear relationship between values and subjective probabilities was found.     

Behavioral, but not reward, risk modulates activation of prefrontal, parietal, and insular cortices

Risky decisions may involve uncertainty about possible outcomes (i.e., reward risk) or uncertainty about which action should be taken (i.e., behavioral risk). Determining whether different forms of risk have distinct neural correlates is a central goal of neuroeconomic research. In two functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments, subjects viewed shapes that had well-learned response-reward contingencies. Magnitude of a monetary reward was held constant within one experiment, whereas expected value was held constant within the other. Response selection, in the absence of behavioral risk, evoked activation within a broad set of brain regions, as had been found in prior studies. However, behavioral risk additionally modulated activation in prefrontal, parietal, and insular regions, within which no effect of reward risk was observed. Reward delivery, in comparison with omission, evoked increased activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the nucleus accumbens. We conclude that distinct brain systems are recruited for the resolution of different forms of risk.     

Favourable and unfavourable conditions for children's confidence judgments

Two studies are presented in which favourable and unfavourable conditions for children's meta‐cognitive monitoring processes are examined. Previously reported findings have shown that especially children's uncertainty monitoring (in contrast to certainty monitoring) poses specific problems for children in their elementary school years. When interviewing children about an observed event, answerable and unanswerable questions in two question formats (unbiased and misleading) were used, and 8‐ and 10‐year‐old children as well as adults were asked to rate their confidence on a three‐point scale concerning each response. Results of Study 1 show that accuracy instructions and the option to answer with ‘I don't know’ inflate children's level of confidence because uncertain answers are withheld. Results of Study 2 revealed that children's difficulty with uncertainty monitoring may lie in a cognitive overload during the interview because immediate confidence judgments were less precise and less adequate compared with delayed confidence judgments. Participants' rating of their uncertainty after having erroneously provided an answer to an unanswerable question proved that children aged 8 years and older are able to experience and report levels of uncertainty but, as was shown for answerable questions, these emerging competencies are dependent on favourable task conditions.     

Uncertainty-dependent activity within the ventral striatum predicts task-related changes in response strategy

Recent neuroimaging work has demonstrated that the ventral striatum (VS) encodes confidence in perceptual decisions. However, it remains unclear whether perceptual uncertainty can signal the need to adapt behavior (such as by responding more cautiously) and whether such behavioral changes are related to uncertainty-dependent activity within the VS. Changes in response strategy have previously been observed following errors and are associated with both medial frontal cortex (MFC) and VS, two components of the performance-monitoring network. If uncertainty can elicit changes in response strategy (slowing), then one might hypothesize that these changes rely on the performance-monitoring network. In the present study, we investigated the link between perceptual uncertainty and task-related behavioral adaptations (response slowing and accuracy increases), as well as how such behavioral changes relate to uncertainty-dependent activity within MFC and VS. Our participants performed a two-choice perceptual decision-making task in which perceptual uncertainty was reported on each trial while behavioral and event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging data were collected. Analysis of the behavioral data revealed that uncertain (but correct) responses led to slowing on subsequent trials, a phenomenon that was positively correlated with increased accuracy. Critically, post-uncertainty slowing was negatively correlated with the VS activity elicited by uncertain responses. In agreement with previous reports, increases in MFC activation were observed for uncertain responses, although MFC activity was not correlated with post-uncertainty slowing. These results suggest that perceptual uncertainty can serve as a signal to adapt one’s response strategy and that such behavioral changes are closely tied to the VS, a key node in the performance-monitoring network.     

Subjective discriminability of invisibility: A framework for distinguishing perceptual and attentional failures of awareness

Conscious visual perception can fail in many circumstances. However, little is known about the causes and processes leading to failures of visual awareness. In this study, we introduce a new signal detection measure termed subjective discriminability of invisibility (SDI) that allows one to distinguish between subjective blindness due to reduction of sensory signals or to lack of attentional access to sensory signals. The SDI is computed based upon subjective confidence in reporting the absence of a target (i.e., miss and correct rejection trials). Using this new measure, we found that target misses were subjectively indistinguishable from physical absence when contrast reduction, backward masking and flash suppression were used, whereas confidence was appropriately modulated when dual task, attentional blink and spatial uncertainty methods were employed. These results show that failure of visual perception can be identified as either a result of perceptual or attentional blindness depending on the circumstances under which visual awareness was impaired.     

Comparison of brain activation during word retrieval done silently and aloud using fMRI

Using functional MRI we compared the patterns of activation in an effortful word retrieval task (stem completion) performed both silently and aloud. The silent and overt conditions showed expected differences in activation magnitude in regions such as primary motor cortex. Some regions, such as frontal operculum and dorsolateral frontal cortex, showed similar activation magnitude across conditions. Thalamus was more active on the left in both conditions and showed a symmetric drop in activity in the silent compared with the overt condition. Putamen was also more active in the overt condition and showed a larger decrease in activity on the right than on the left in the silent compared with the overt condition. Thus it appears that silent and overt performance of this task engage the thalamus and putamen in different ways.     

Studies in subjective probability IV: probabilities, confidence, and luck

Probably because of formal advantages, probabilities are often regarded as more basic than other dimensions of attitudes towards uncertain events (beliefs, confidences, doubts, statements of hope and fear, good and bad luck etc.). In a series of experiments, some of these concepts were empirically compared by asking students to give their views on a variety of uncertain events, ranging from future examinations to lotteries. Confidence turned out to be closely related to perceived chance, but very imperfectly to the subjective probability of the event in question, except when all outcomes are judged equally due to chance. Judgments of good and bad luck were still more independent of the probabilities involved, even in a chance situation, It is concluded that subjective probability plays a secondary role in assessments of confidence as well as of luck, and is poorly suited as a common measure of the varieties of subjective uncertainty. A final experiment suggests the subjective and statistical conceptions of uncertainty to have partially opposing connotations. "An uncertain future" seems to be subjectively interpreted as an open future, restricted possibilities of prediction.     

The role of activation charge in an emotional categorisation task for words: insight from the perspective of a dual process theory of the activation mechanisms

The role of activation (arousal and subjective significance) was investigated for word processing in an explicit emotional judgement task using a 3?×?3 manipulation. We expected to find dissociative effects for both factors. The behavioural results showed that the fraction of words perceived as emotional increases with increasing arousal or subjective significance. The electrophysiological (EEG) results showed that both factors influence ERP amplitudes. General effects of subjective significance were found for early (60–120?ms and 120–250?ms, low subjective significant stimuli evoked higher amplitude than other conditions) and late (350–490?ms, high subjective significant stimuli evoked higher amplitude than other conditions) time ranges. Localised arousal effects were found in 250–350?ms and 350–490?ms time ranges at posterior (amplitude for high arousing stimuli was less positive than for other conditions) and left frontal ROIs (diverse pattern). Localised subjective significance effects were found for the 350–490?ms time range at the posterior ROIs (amplitude for high subjective significant stimuli was more positive than for other conditions). The results of this study suggest that the effects of arousal reported in earlier studies might account for a more complex form of activation that was recently postulated, namely subjective significance.     

Decision Pattern Analysis as a General Framework for Studying Individual Differences in Decision Making

This paper investigated decision pattern analysis (DPA) as a general and standard framework for studying individuals' consistent decision making behavior within and between contexts. DPA classifies decisions on the basis of judgement accuracy and the goal orientation of the decided‐upon action. Over repeated decisions, patterns of individuals' decision behavior are described by five variables: competence, optimality, recklessness, hesitancy and decisiveness. A fictitious medical decision making test and three standard cognitive ability tests (extended with confidence ratings and a ‘submit answer for marking’ decision) were used to investigate the psychometric properties of these DPA variables. Internal consistency of the decision patterns ranged from good to excellent. Convergent validity was assessed via cognitive abilities, metacognitive confidence and a control criterion imposed on confidence that determines the decision to be made: the point of sufficient certainty. Personality variables were included to assess discriminant validity. As hypothesised, cognitive abilities showed positive correlations with competence and optimality. High confidence, low points of sufficient certainty and a greater discrepancy between them were associated with higher decisiveness and recklessness, and lower hesitancy. Personality measures showed mixed and generally weak correlations with the DPA variables. These convergent and discriminant results also held after controlling for all variables in regression. The results provide preliminary psychometric support for DPA as a general framework of behavioral decision making. DPA has the potential to be exploited in many contexts for uses that, to date, have been unachievable in a psychometrically valid manner. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equality as a benchmark for third-party punishment and reward: The moderating role of uncertainty in social dilemmas

The present paper focuses on third-parties’ decisions to punish and reward in social dilemmas, and on the moderating role of environmental uncertainty (i.e., uncertainty about the size of the common resource). We argue and demonstrate that in social dilemmas third-parties use the equality rule as a strict benchmark to determine punishments (Study 1) as well as rewards (Study 2), but only under environmental certainty. Under environmental uncertainty, third-parties do not apply such a strict benchmark to distinguish cooperators from defectors. Instead, they appear to use the following rule: the more an individual group member has cooperated the less he/she should be punished (Study 1) and the more he/she should be rewarded (Study 2). As such, these findings are the first to demonstrate that third-party sanctioning decisions are moderated by environmental uncertainty.     

The enhancing effects of anxiety on arousal in sexually dysfunctional and functional women

Effects of anxiety on sexual arousal were examined to determine if sexually dysfunctional and functional women exhibit different patterns of physiological and subjective response. Subjects viewed 2 videotape conditions: an anxiety-evoking and neutral-control preexposure stimulus, each paired with a sexual arousal-evoking stimulus. Anxiety preexposure enhanced the rate and magnitude of genital arousal for both dysfunctional and functional subjects in relation to the neutral condition. Despite increased genital responses, both groups reported less subjective sexual arousal after anxiety preexposure. Functional subjects exhibited greater physiological but not subjective arousal than dysfunctional subjects in both conditions. Results are discussed in terms of desynchronous patterns of sexual response, mechanisms by which sympathetic activation enhances sexual arousal, and implications for treatment of sexual dysfunction in women.     

Charismatic leadership,environmental dynamism,and performance

Most studies relating charismatic leadership to performance have limitations concerning selection of criterion measures and investigation of moderators. Therefore, this study examines relationships between charismatic leadership and multiple performance outcomes under different levels of environmental dynamism (i.e., level of environmental uncertainty, degree of technological change) and per type of Chief Executive Officer (firm owner versus managing director). Results revealed that charismatic leadership was positively related to common-source and multi-source perceptual performance outcomes (i.e., subordinates' positive work attitude) and to organization profitability, but unrelated to organization liquidity and solvency. The relationship between charismatic leadership and perceptual performance was stronger under conditions of environmental uncertainty than under conditions of environmental certainty. Furthermore, charismatic leadership was more strongly related to organization profitability for firm owners than for managing directors who do not own their firm. The results are discussed and several potentially fruitful avenues for future research on charismatic leadership and employee as well as organizational performance are presented.     

The neural bases of strategy and skill in sentence-picture verification

This experiment used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging to examine the relation between individual differences in cognitive skill and the amount of cortical activation engendered by two strategies (linguistic vs. visual-spatial) in a sentence-picture verification task. The verbal strategy produced more activation in language-related cortical regions (e.g., Broca's area), whereas the visual-spatial strategy produced more activation in regions that have been implicated in visual-spatial reasoning (e.g., parietal cortex). These relations were also modulated by individual differences in cognitive skill: Individuals with better verbal skills (as measured by the reading span test) had less activation in Broca's area when they used the verbal strategy. Similarly, individuals with better visual-spatial skills (as measured by the Vandenberg, 1971, mental rotation test) had less activation in the left parietal cortex when they used the visual-spatial strategy. These results indicate that language and visual-spatial processing are supported by partially separable networks of cortical regions and suggests one basis for strategy selection: the minimization of cognitive workload.     

Evidence for cerebral asymmetries in a finger sequencing task

Visual input was lateralized using a specially designed contact lens system. Subjects performed a sequence of two keypresses in response to a light stimulus with either the left or the right hand in a choice reaction time paradigm. Two choice reaction time conditions were used: (A) hand certainty, sequence uncertainty and (B) hand uncertainty, sequence certainty. Reaction time (RT) results indicate that there are no significant differences between the left and right hemisphere in selecting a sequential response in either of the two conditions. Interfinger time (IFT) results show a relative left eye (right hemisphere)-left hand advantage when there was hand certainty, sequence uncertainty and a relative left eye (right hemisphere) disadvantage for both hands when there was hand uncertainty, sequence certainty. The RT results do not support the concept of a center in the left hemisphere for selection of the components of a two-element sequential keypress, prior to movement initiation. However, the IFT results indicate that there are differences in the processing ability of the left and right hemispheres in a sequencing task, after movement initiation.     

The creation of uncertainty in the influence process: The roles of stimulus information and disagreement with similar others

Social and cognitive psychologists have conceptualized judgemental confidence (how strongly a person holds the belief that some judgement is correct) as being proportional to the amount of evidence in favour of a response. Festinger (1950) argued that there are two separate processes by which uncertainty (the inverse of confidence) can be reduced. These two processes are physical reality testing (the perceptual processing of stimulus information) and social reality testing (reliance on other people to resolve particularly ambiguous situations). However, there is surprisingly little direct evidence that uncertainty is either reduced or increased by the responses of other people. In two experimental tests (N = 74 and N = 83) it was found that disagreement increased uncertainty and agreement tended to reduce uncertainty. In a third experiment (N = 63) it was found that disagreement only increased uncertainty when stimulus information was limited, but that agreement generally reduced uncertainty. The results challenge Festinger's model of uncertainty reduction and support a self-categorization theory account.