Decision support for real-time, dynamic decision-making tasks

By definition, dynamic decision making dictates that multiple and interrelated decisions be made in a continuously changing environment. Such decision making is difficult and often taxes individuals’ cognitive resources. Here I investigated ways in which to support decision making in these environments. I evaluated three forms of decision support: outcome feedback, cognitive feedback, and feedforward that incorporated (to varying degrees) common features of learning theories associated with dynamic tasks. Participants in a laboratory experiment performed a real-time, dynamic decision-making task while receiving one of the different types of decision support. During the first 2 days, individuals received one type of decision support, but on the third day they performed the task without this support. Participants who received feedforward improved their performance considerably and continued to exhibit improved performance even after discontinuation of the decision support on the third day. Neither outcome feedback nor cognitive feedback resulted in improved performance. More research is necessary to conclusively identify the best forms of dynamic decision-making support and their durability when transferred to new tasks.     

Does the feedback from previous trials influence current decisions? A study on the role of feedback processing in making decisions under explicit risk conditions

Decision situations frequently provide information about the amount of gains and losses and winning probabilities. In decisions under these conditions, also called risk conditions, both the use of feedback and executive functions have been shown to influence the decision‐making process, as revealed in different patient populations. However, the influence of offering feedback in tasks examining decisions under risk conditions has not been investigated experimentally, so far. This was the aim of the present study. For this purpose, a sample of healthy individuals was examined with the Game of Dice Task, a decision‐making task that explicitly provides the rules for gains and losses and in which participants receive feedback after each trial. In addition, a modified version of this task was performed, in which the feedback after each trial and all associated feedback components were removed. Results indicate that participants had a lower performance in the modified Dice Task without feedback. They selected the disadvantageous alternatives more frequently, when they did not receive feedback following their choices. Task performance in either version was correlated with executive functioning. Conclusion: In decisions under risk conditions, both executive functions as well as the use of feedback following previous trials are important components for optimal performance. Results have implications for the interpretation of deficient decision making in patients with neuropsychological impairments as both disturbances in categorization and other cognitive processes as well as emotional dysfunctions can compromise decision making in risky situations.     

The Effects of Decision Outcome Dispersion Upon Organizational Decision Making

The effects of varying decision outcome dispersion on organizational decision making were investigated under individual and group decision making conditions. Thirty-six female and pg]36 male subjects made decisions for organizational decision scenarios in which outcomes affected primarily the decision maker, people other than the decision maker, or a group of which the decision maker was a member. Subjects rated their levels of perceived risk and confidence in their decisions and made decisions within a simulated context of either a small or a large organization. Results indicated that subjects perceived significantly less risk and more confidence in their decisions when outcomes affected primarily themselves rather than others regardless of whether the decisions were made individually or by a group. Males perceived their decisions as significantly more risky than females. Induced organizational size did not significantly influence decision making.

     

“先扬后抑”vs.“先抑后扬”:反馈顺序对决策信心建构的影响

本研究采用2×3被试内设计,通过操纵不同性质信息的反馈比例和反馈顺序,重点考察了反馈顺序对决策信心动态建构的影响。结果表明:(1)在不同反馈比例条件下,当个体接收到的正性反馈多于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心上升,反之则下降;当个体接收到的正性反馈等于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心下降,表现出"负性偏向";(2)"先扬后抑"与"先抑后扬"的信息反馈顺序对决策信心的动态建构产生了不同影响,表现出类似于"近因效应"的现象,"惊讶假设(surprise hypothesis)"可为此提供解释。本研究表明,在决策信心的动态建构过程中,信息的反馈顺序发挥着重要作用。     

Individual and group advice taking in judgmental forecasting: Is group forecasting superior to individual forecasting?

We examined how individuals and groups behave in making judgmental forecasts when they are given external forecast advice. We compare individual and group advice-taking behavior under different conditions: (a) when advice quality is fixed, (b) when advice quality is randomly varied, and (c) when there is feedback on advice quality or not. Participants in Study 1 received fixed advice of either reasonable or unreasonable quality while making their decisions. Participants in Study 2 randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice. We found in both studies that groups feel more confident than individuals. This greater confidence decreased the groups' reliance on advice. We also found that groups are better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. In the group treatment, the group's reliance on advice increased according to the degree of disagreement with the initial decisions of the group members. In Study 3, participants randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice, and in addition, they received feedback on actual realizations that enabled them to learn about the quality of advice. In the presence of feedback on random advice quality, groups are no longer less receptive to advice than individuals; with feedback, both individuals and groups discount advice more than they do without feedback. Nevertheless, groups are still better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. We conclude that group forecasting is better than individual forecasting across various conditions that we investigate except when advice quality is known to be consistently reliable.     

When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence and performance in categorical decision tasks

The study traces the development of confidence and its relation to performance as participants learn a new skill and develop from laymen to experts. We describe a new hierarchy of Categorical Decisions Structures that distinguishes between screening, discrimination, and classification modes. Each decision mode offers a different representation of information and provides a different type of feedback. We propose simple models of performance and confidence, and derive their predictions under all three modes. We report results of an empirical study designed to evaluate the models’ predictions. Ninety participants performed 1200 categorical decisions under the three modes and three distinct base rates. Results show that (a) decisions made in the screening mode tend to induce over-confidence; (b) the discrimination mode leads to fast learning and high correspondence between performance and confidence; and (c) the detailed feedback provided in the classification mode results in slow and steady improvement of the correspondence between confidence and performance.     

Improving young drivers’ speed management behaviour through feedback: A cognitive training intervention

The aim of the present study was to examine which aspect of content-based feedback about drivers’ speed management behaviour (performance, financial infringements and safety implications for speeding) yielded positive changes in compliance with the speed limit. One hundred young drivers were randomly allocated to one of five groups (Control, Performance Feedback, Performance and Finance Feedback, Performance and Safety Feedback, Combined Feedback). Depending on group randomly allocated to, participants completed a baseline drive and received feedback about their speed management (except control). Immediately after, all groups completed a post-training drive, followed by a second drive one week later. A reduced sample (25 per cent dropout) completed a third test drive six month post-training. All drives were completed in a computer-based driving simulator. Feedback pertaining to their speed management behaviour was provided verbally immediately after the baseline drive by the researcher. Performance Feedback group received feedback about own speed-related performance (e.g., mean speed, time violated during the drive); Performance and Finance Feedback group received feedback about own performance and potential fines that could be received for exceeding the speed limit; Performance and Safety Feedback group received feedback about own performance and potential safety outcomes for them and other passengers; the Combined Feedback group received feedback about own performance, financial infringements and safety implications for speeding; and the Control group received no feedback. The results showed that all types of feedback are effective in modifying young drivers’ speed management behaviour, and these effects were present up to six months post-training in both low and high-speed zones. These findings have valuable implications in the development of a new training approach to improve young drivers’ speed management behaviour.     

Cueing and Cognitive Conflict in Judge-Advisor Decision Making

The Judge-Advisor paradigm (Sniezek & Buckley, 1989) allows for the study of decision making by groups with differentiated roles. This paper reports a study using this approach to investigate the impact of advice vis-à-vis the judge′s own initial choice. Teams consisting of one judge and two advisors (business students randomly assigned to these roles) were given a choice task (concerning business events) composed of 70 items with two alternatives each. The judges provided final team choices and confidence assessments under one of three conditions: Dependent (judge has no basis for own choice), Cued (judge chooses only after being advised), or Independent (judges makes own tentative choice prior to being advised as well as subsequent final choice). Results showed that this manipulation affected the judge′s final choice accuracy and confidence, leading to the best performance by Independent judges and the poorest by Dependent judges. These data are discussed with respect to theory and data on the cueing effect (Sniezek, Paese, & Switzer, 1990) for individual choice. In addition, the effects on the decision making process of the judge from (a) advisors′ confidence and (b) conflict between advisors′ recommendations are examined in detail. Finally, issues concerning the potential contribution of the Judge-Advisor paradigm to the understanding of social decision making are addressed.     

决策信心校准水平对元认知监控作用的影响

决策信心是个体对自身决策正确性的主观评价,是对决策过程的元认知体验。决策信心校准指决策信心水平与实际的决策正确率之间的匹配程度,其指标有信心水平和决策正确率的相关系数及Type II信号检测论中的ROC曲线下面积（Aroc）等。已有研究发现进行决策信心评估能够增强对当前或后续决策的元认知监控作用,但目前尚不清楚这种效应是否依赖于个体的决策信心校准水平。本研究通过设置知觉决策后是否进行决策信心评估（有信心评估与无信心评估）两种条件,考察个体决策信心的校准水平（Aroc）对元认知监控作用的影响。结果显示：1）与无信心评估条件相比,有信心评估的决策反应时显著增长,决策正确率显著提高（p<0.005）;2）Aroc与有、无信心评估条件下决策正确率的增加值显著正相关（r=0.25,p=0.034）,且高Aroc组的决策正确率增加值显著高于低Aroc组（p<0.05）。结果表明,在知觉决策过程中加入决策信心评估具有增强元认知监控作用的效应,体现为决策时间的增长和决策正确率的提高。并且,这种效应的大小依赖于个体的决策信心校准水平,校准水平越高元认知监控作用越好。     

个体自信度对双人决策的影响

群体决策是重要的社会现象, 个体自信度在群体决策中发挥了重要作用。本文开展了不同难度和信息交流方式下的双人决策实验, 通过分析自信度和个体决策以及决策调整行为的关系, 研究了个体自信度的交流对双人决策的影响。实验结果表明, 个体的自信度与选择的正确率高度正相关; 双人决策过程是个体根据对方的自信度和选择来不断调整自己的选择最终达成一致的过程, 并通过交互过程提高双人决策的正确率; 实验中双人决策的质量明显优于“自信度分享模型”和“更自信者主导决策模型”的预期结果, 表明群体决策不是通过分享自信度进行的贝叶斯优化整合过程, 也不是由更自信的个体完全主导的过程。     

The Effects of Computer Monitoring,Standards, and Rewards on Work Performance,Job Satisfaction,and Stress1

The effects of automated computer monitoring under different conditions of performance standards and reward were examined in two studies conducted in a simulated organization. In the first study, 37 computer operators were divided into six groups who worked for a 2-week period under different levels of performance standards. Individual keystrokes per hour and productive time was monitored by the computers for all of the groups (one group was a control group which was monitored but was unaware of the monitoring). Four of the six groups were assigned work standards, and performance against standards was also monitored for these four groups. Feedback reports on the monitored performance were available on demand at the individual consoles for those groups which were informed of the monitoring. The results showed that computer monitoring and feedback led to increased key rate compared to the control group which was not aware of monitoring. There was little effect of monitoring on work quality, satisfaction, and stress. In the second study, 24 operators worked for a 9-week period under various performance standards and rewards. Individual keystrokes per hour, productive time, and performance against standards were monitored by the computers for all workers. Feedback reports on performance against standards and rewards earned were available on demand at the individual consoles. The results revealed that the feedback from different combinations of standards and rewards had varying effects on performance, satisfaction, and stress. These effects, and the results from the first study, are discussed in terms of goal setting and expectancy theory.     

Decisions from experience: How groups and individuals adapt to change

Whether groups make better judgments and decisions than individuals has been studied extensively, but most of this research has focused on static tasks. How do groups and individuals compare in settings where the decision environment changes unexpectedly and without notification? This article examines group and individual behavior in decisions from experience where the underlying probabilities change after some trials. Consistent with the previous literature, the results showed that groups performed better than the average individual while the decision task was stable. However, group performance was no longer superior after a change in the decision environment. Group performance was closer to the benchmark of Bayesian updating, which assumed perfect memory. Findings suggest that groups did not adopt decision routines that might have delayed their adaption to change in the environment. Rather, they seem to have coordinated their responses, which led them to behave as if they had better memory and subsequently delayed adaptation.     

Merging information in speech recognition: feedback is never necessary

Top-down feedback does not benefit speech recognition; on the contrary, it can hinder it. No experimental data imply that feedback loops are required for speech recognition. Feedback is accordingly unnecessary and spoken word recognition is modular. To defend this thesis, we analyse lexical involvement in phonemic decision making. TRACE (McClelland & Elman 1986), a model with feedback from the lexicon to prelexical processes, is unable to account for all the available data on phonemic decision making. The modular Race model (Cutler & Norris 1979) is likewise challenged by some recent results, however. We therefore present a new modular model of phonemic decision making, the Merge model. In Merge, information flows from prelexical processes to the lexicon without feedback. Because phonemic decisions are based on the merging of prelexical and lexical information, Merge correctly predicts lexical involvement in phonemic decisions in both words and nonwords. Computer simulations show how Merge is able to account for the data through a process of competition between lexical hypotheses. We discuss the issue of feedback in other areas of language processing and conclude that modular models are particularly well suited to the problems and constraints of speech recognition.     

Performing a secondary executive task with affective stimuli interferes with decision making under risk conditions

Previous studies demonstrated that executive functions are crucial for advantageous decision making under risk and that therefore decision making is disrupted when working memory capacity is demanded while working on a decision task. While some studies also showed that emotions can affect decision making under risk, it is unclear how affective processing and executive functions predict decision-making performance in interaction. The current experimental study used a between-subjects design to examine whether affective pictures (positive and negative pictures compared to neutral pictures), included in a parallel executive task (working memory 2-back task), have an impact on decision making under risk as assessed by the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Moreover, the performance GDT plus 2-back task was compared to the performance in the GDT without any additional task (GDT solely). The results show that the performance in the GDT differed between groups (positive, negative, neutral, and GDT solely). The groups with affective pictures, especially those with positive pictures in the 2-back task, showed more disadvantageous decisions in the GDT than the groups with neutral pictures and the group performing the GDT without any additional task. However, executive functions moderated the effect of the affective pictures. Regardless of affective influence, subjects with good executive functions performed advantageously in the GDT. These findings support the assumption that executive functions and emotional processing interact in predicting decision making under risk.     

Information Suppression and Status Persistence in Group Decision Making The Effects of Communication Media

This experiment investigated the conditions under which a member with information critical for making the best group decision will positively influence the group's final choice. The impact of two factors on group decision quality, information exchange, and perceptions of influence was examined: (a) status differences among members (equal-status vs. mixed-status groups) and (b) communication media (face-to-face vs. computer-mediated communication). Three-person groups were composed such that the critical information required to make the best decision was given only to the low-status member in the mixed-status groups and randomly assigned to one member in the equal-status groups. The results indicated that the mixed-status groups made poorer decisions and made fewer references to critical information than equal-status groups, regardless of the communication medium. Computer-mediated communication suppressed information exchange and the perceived influence of group members, suggesting that the relation between status and communication media is more complex than proposed in past research.     

Team confidence,motivated information processing,and dynamic group decision making

According to the Motivated Information Processing in Groups (MIP‐G) model, groups should perform ambiguous (non‐ambiguous) tasks better when they have high (low) epistemic motivation and concomitant tendencies to engage in systematic (heuristic) information processing and exchange. The authors tested this prediction in an experiment with four‐person groups performing a complex and dynamic decision making task. Group confidence was measured after extensive training and prior to actual group decision‐making. Task ambiguity was manipulated. Results showed that when task ambiguity was low, group confidence indeed benefits decision quality and group performance. But when task ambiguity was high, group confidence hurt decision quality and group performance. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of normative feedback on motor learning are dependent on the frequency of knowledge of results

Studies on normative feedback have shown superior motor learning outcomes for individuals who believe that they are performing better than others through increased self-efficacy. Nevertheless, the effects of normative feedback were never dissociated from the knowledge of results (KR) provided to the learners which potentially interacts with self-efficacy as well. Thus, we investigated whether the effects of normative feedback on motor learning, associated with self-efficacy, would be dependent on the amount of KR provided. Fifty-six participants were randomly assigned to four experimental groups in terms of KR frequency (100% and 33%) and normative feedback (positive and negative). In the acquisition phase, all groups received the average KR of their performance at the end of each block of trials (True feedback) and a fake KR based on their own performance (but said to be from a group of participants who practiced the same task) (False Feedback). The False Feedback indicated better or worse performance of the participant in comparison to the fake group, depending on their experimental group. Retention tests were performed immediately and after 24 h from the acquisition phase. To measure self-efficacy, a questionnaire on participant's efficacy was applied before the first block, after each block of trials and before the retention tests. The results revealed superiority of positive normative feedback and 100% KR frequency, compared to negative normative feedback and 100% KR frequency in the 24h retention test. No difference was found between the groups with a frequency of 33% of KR (positive and negative). All groups increased self-efficacy during practice, but there was no difference between groups at any stage of the study. We conclude that the effects of normative feedback on motor learning are dependent on the KR frequency. However, they were not associated with self-efficacy.     

Group Ethical Decision Making Process in Chinese Business: Analysis From Social Decision Scheme and Cultural Perspectives

Literature concerning group ethical decision making in a business setting has traditionally focused on directly comparing group versus individual decisions and then investigating differences. Analysis of the interactive process of group ethical decision making appears sparse. This study addresses the gap by investigating group decision making from a social decision scheme (SDS) perspective in a Chinese cultural setting. A cohort of Chinese accountancy students evaluated ethical business scenarios individually and then in a group context. Group responses could be explained in terms of both the SDS and the Chinese cultural perspective (zhongyong). Specifically, groups did not select the most ethical choice but rather the most moderate of all choices advocated by the majority (zhongyong). These results show the application of SDS theory in a culturally specific (Chinese) environment and note the impact of culturally specific factors (zhongyong) on business decision making. The implications are significant for business. If ethical decisions are entrusted to groups, the impact of culturally specific factors must be fully appreciated in evaluating the final decision.     

Learning to Make Selection and Detection Decisions: The Roles of Base Rate and Feedback

The effects of type of feedback and base rate on threshold learning in a multiple‐cue decision task were examined. In most such decision experiments, participants receive feedback after every trial (full feedback), and a single base rate (usually 0.5) is used. Our experiment explored conditional feedback (feedback only after positive decisions) representing common selection and detection tasks (such as hiring), where the decision maker receives no feedback unless the decision is positive (e.g., hire the applicant). We used three base rates (0.2, 0.5, and 0.8). As expected, performance was best in full feedback, but after 300 learning trials, the difference was small. Conditional feedback generally resulted in fewer positive decisions than full feedback, but this difference was not found in the low (0.2) base rate condition. There were interactions between base rates and types of feedback. Results provide partial support for the constructivist encoding hypothesis of Elwin and colleagues. Simulation results suggest that our results may reflect overconfidence when feedback is not given. With respect to rate of learning, when the base rate was 0.2, conditional feedback participants reached approximately the same selection rate but did so more slowly than the full feedback participants. Partial feedback participants learned slower and appeared to be still learning after 500 trials. When the base rate was 0.5 or 0.8, partial feedback was nearly as good as full feedback, but conditional feedback resulted in a systematically lower rate of positive decisions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.