Time pressure and the application of decision rules: Choices and judgments among multiattribute alternatives

The effects of time pressure on decisions and judgments were studied and related to the use of different decision rules in a multiattribute decision task. The decision alternatives were students described by their high school grades in Swedish, Psychology and Natural Science. The subjects were asked to choose the student they thought would be most able to follow a university program and graduate as a school psychologist. On the basis of earlier findings using the same kind of decision task (Svenson et al., 1990) it was hypothesised that subjects under time pressure would prefer candidates having the maximum grade across all attributes to a greater extent than subjects under no time pressure. Furthermore, it was hypothesised that subjects under time pressure would also focus more on the most important attribute and choose the alternatives being best on that attribute. The results supported these hypotheses.     

Reversible decisions: The grass isn't merely greener on the other side; it's also very brown over here

People generally say they prefer to have the opportunity to revise decisions at a later point in time. Research has shown, however, that reversible decision-making leads to lower as opposed to higher levels of post-choice satisfaction (Gilbert & Ebert, 2002). In three studies we aimed to gain insight into the underlying processes driving this counterintuitive finding. Our results show that irreversible decision-making increases the accessibility of the positive aspects of the chosen and the negative aspects of the rejected alternatives. Hence, in line with what would be expected on the basis of cognitive dissonance theory, irreversible decision-making results in a focus on aspects of the decision that optimize choice satisfaction. After reversible decision-making, however, the negative aspects of the chosen and the positive aspects of the rejected alternatives tend to become relatively more accessible. Apparently, reversible decisions automatically direct people's attention to those aspects of the decision that potentially decrease satisfaction with the chosen alternative.     

Problem structuring heuristics in strategic decision making

In a laboratory experiment using 73 undergraduate students as subjects, comparisons were made between the use of a convergent, divergent, and limited heuristic for problem structuring under different stress levels. It was found that subjects using either the convergent or the divergent heuristic had lower satisfaction with the process and lower confidence in their results than those using the limited heuristic. There were no differences in the time used or the quality of results between subjects using the convergent and divergent heuristic. Stress reduced the quantity of results when using either the convergent or divergent heuristic. The subjects may have preferred the limited heuristic because the use of the convergent or divergent heuristic used more time, thus more energy, and resulted in more alternatives, thus increased uncertainty. It is also possible that the subjects preferred their future career plans to be more ambiguous than the use of either the convergent or divergent heuristic allowed.     

Component processes of phased decision strategies

It is often assumed that decision makers apply mixtures of strategies including heuristic processes in complex choice tasks. In support of this assumption the component processes involved in phased strategies were investigated. Expectations for an experimental investigation were generated by simulations within the effort-quality framework. Effort-quality trade-off functions for tasks of different complexity favor compensatory dimension-based strategies for binary choice. For multialternative choice, a combination of initial dimension-based elimination procedures followed by alternative-based final processing would be expected. These expectations were tested in two experiments. While choosing between two, four, or eight alternatives, subjects could successively retrieve parts of the available information. Depending on their menu selection, either all features of one alternative were displayed together (alternative-based retrieval), or all features on one dimension were displayed together (dimension-based retrieval). Vincent averaging was used to analyze the retrieval sequences with respect to their stationarity. While the stationary sequences for binary choice are compatible with single processing strategies, non-stationarity of the sequences obtained for multialternative choice indicates the use of phased strategies. In particular, non-stationarity due to decreasing dimension-based retrievals over time suggests that subjects first applied dimensional elimination and later derived their choices by more thorough, alternative-based processing of the remaining alternatives.     

The impact of task complexity on information use in multi-attribute decision making

This study presents a process analysis of multi-attribute decision making. The decision problems concerned the selection of the most suitable candidate for a job opening. The problems varied in terms of complexity, i.e. the number of candidates and the number of attributes used to describe these alternatives. Results show that with an increasing number of alternatives, subjects (N = 48) used fewer attributes for the evaluation of alternatives, and made, on average, less references to the alternatives. The type of judgment most often used was absolute dimensional (comparison of an attribute to an absolute standard) and was used more often at the beginning than toward the end of the decision process. Overall, judgments were predominantly positive. The percentage of positive judgments decreased with increasing complexity, and toward the end of the decision process. Significantly more judgments, particularly positive ones, concerned the finally chosen alternative as compared to the rest of the alternatives. Finally, analysis of subjects' usage of decision rules revealed that increasing the number of alternatives resulted in an increasing use of elimination strategies. Implications of these findings for the design of decision aids will be discussed.     

Change of preferences under time pressure: choices and judgements

Students made choices between student apartments judged to be equally attractive. When asked to choose the best apartment in each pair of alternatives, choices made by a group under time pressure were significantly different from those made by another group under no time pressure. The effect was so strong that preference reversals were obtained which could be explained by subjects over-evaluating negative aspects on the most important attribute under time pressure.     

Escalation behavior in domains related and unrelated to decision makers' academic background

Based on Staw and Ross's (1987) analysis of escalation behavior it was hypothesized that (a) those who are involved with projects related to their academic background will tend to persist in a losing course of action and to judge the situation as reversible more than those who have to make decisions in areas unrelated to their specialty; (b) providing information that the loss is irreversible will decrease the tendency to invest additional resources. A secondary goal of the study was to examine whether there would be any difference in sunk cost decisions when the resource invested is financial as compared to time. Using a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design, a total of 296 students were given eight different scenarios in which relatedness of decision subject-matter to academic background, reversibility of the situation, and type of resources (time or money) were the independent variables, and commitment to a course of action was the dependent variable. The results confirmed the hypotheses. No significant main effect for type of resources (time vs. money) was found. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.The authors thank Dr. Michael Hoffman for his valuable contribution in preparing this paper.     

DISCRIMINATION ACQUISITION IN CHILDREN WITH DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES UNDER IMMEDIATE AND DELAYED REINFORCEMENT

We evaluated the discrimination acquisition of individuals with developmental disabilities under immediate and delayed reinforcement. In Experiment 1, discrimination between two alternatives was examined when reinforcement was immediate or delayed by 20 s, 30 s, or 40 s. In Experiment 2, discrimination between 2 alternatives was compared across an immediate reinforcement condition and a delayed reinforcement condition in which subjects could respond during the delay. In Experiment 3, discrimination among 4 alternatives was compared across immediate and delayed reinforcement. In Experiment 4, discrimination between 2 alternatives was examined when reinforcement was immediate and 0‐s or 30‐s intertrial intervals (ITI) were programmed. For most subjects, discrimination acquisition occurred under immediate reinforcement. However, for some subjects, introducing delays slowed or prevented discrimination acquisition under some conditions. Results from Experiment 4 suggest that longer ITIs cannot account for the lack of discrimination under delayed reinforcement.     

Information search and decision making: The effects of information displays

Information display boards may be used to test assumptions about underlying cognitive processes in decision situations. However, the question may be raised whether information processing in a complex decision situation is indepemdent of the structure of the information display board used. In a study employing 96 subjects, the design of the information display board, the number of alternatives, and the number of attributes were varied. Twelve groups of eight subjects were presented with one hypothetical choice among riskless multiattribute decision alternatives (apartments). Results showed that information search patterns were not influenced by the design of the information display board, but that the relative number of attributes included in the decision process was. The number of available attributes appeared to be the strongest determinant of information search patterns. A higher number of attributes induced information search patterns consistent with the noncompensatory conjunctive decision rule. It is suggested that the decision situation employed, which forced the decision maker to remember each piece of information acquired, underlies the difference between the results in the present study and previous findings.     

MDFT account of decision making under time pressure

In this paper, decision making under time pressure for multiattribute choice alternatives in a risky environment is investigated. A model, multiattribute decision field theory (MDFT), is introduced that describes both the dynamic and the stochastic nature of decision making and accounts for the observed changes in choice probabilities, including preference reversals as a function of time limit. An experiment in which five different time limits were imposed on the decision maker is presented to test the predictions of the model. It is shown that MDFT is able to account for the complex decision behavior observed in the data. Furthermore, MDFT is compared with the predictions of decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001).     

Response modes, decision processes and decision outcomes

Until recently, research on riskless multiattribute decision making has generally ignored a distinction among response modes, i.e. the type of response required of the decision maker. This neglect persisted in spite of the results of early studies on preference reversals in gambles, which showed a distinct difference between the decision outcomes of choice and those of judgment. This article examines the effects of response modes in relation to two explanations proposed in recent response mode studies: the compatibility hypothesis and the response mode continuum. An experiment was conducted with a process tracing technique (information boards), in which 104 subjects made decisions on the quality of student papers submitted for publication. Four response modes were compared: selecting, rejecting, classifying, and ranking of alternatives. In addition, information load was manipulated. Response mode influenced both the decision process and the decision outcome. The results are interpreted as supporting the response mode continuum idea, but not the compatibility hypothesis. A classification of response modes is proposed.     

A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making

The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT) approach. TTB predicts that RT is determined solely by the expected time required to locate the 1st discriminating attribute, whereas RAT predicts that RT is determined by the difference in summed evidence between the 2 alternatives. Critical test pairs are used that partially decouple these 2 factors. Under conditions in which ideal observer TTB and RAT strategies yield equivalent decisions, both the RT results and the estimated attribute weights suggest that the vast majority of subjects adopted the generalized TTB strategy. The RT approach is also validated in an experimental condition in which use of a RAT strategy is essentially forced upon subjects.     

Predecision conflict and different patterns of postdecision attractiveness restructuring: empirical illustrations from an important real-life decision

This study presents different postdecision consolidation patterns following decisions made under value conflicts. The different patterns were illustrated by case studies of real-life decisions concerning university programs. There were five program alternatives each of which branched into a different professional area. These decisions were very important to the students. The subjects were followed during a year, from a couple of months before they made their choice of program and during several months after the start of the programs. Different postdecision strategies for consolidating a prior decision were derived from Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Svenson, 1992). The strategies involved the following postdecision attractiveness restructuring patterns. (1) Reversing an attractiveness disadvantage into an advantage on a conflict attribute, (2) Compensating for a disadvantage through increase of an advantage of another attribute, (3) Reversing disadvantage on a conflict and decreasing advantage on non-conflict attribute(s), and (4) Increasing advantage for chosen alternative on all attributes. In addition, (5) downgrading of importance of the conflict attribute or a complete elimination of this attribute is also a possible way of consolidating the prior decision. The results illustrated the above consolidation patterns. A comparison with subjects who made the same decisions but with no value conflict indicated that postdecision consolidation was largely driven by value conflicts at the time of decision in conjunction with the outcome of the decision.     

An experimental analysis of decision channeling by restrictive information display

This study focuses on the effect of restrictive information display on decision performance. Specifically the study examines whether two‐channeled and one non‐channeled computerized information display systems result in significant differences in decision accuracy. The two‐channeled information display systems are designed to encourage two general information processing patterns commonly observed in the experimental literature examining multi‐alternative, multi‐attribute choice decisions: information processing by alternative and information processing by attribute. An information display program was developed which used restrictive information display to operationalize the channeled versus non‐channeled manipulation. Channeling was implemented either by displaying information only by alternative or by displaying information only by attribute. The task was an operations scheduling problem that subjects completed under three levels of time pressure. The results indicate statistically significant effects on decision accuracy for both the type of information display and time pressure manipulations. The highest decision accuracy was observed when information was displayed by alternative and when subjects were under highest levels of time pressure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A longitudinal study of real-life decision making: Choosing a college

Three hundred and twenty two college-bound high school students described aspects of their college decision-making processes. Students listed their criteria as well as the alternatives (i. e., schools) under consideration, rated the importance of each criterion, and rated each alternative with respect to each criterion. They also gave their overall impressions of each alternative. Finally, students rated their comfort with the decision-making process and, at the conclusion of the study, reported on how many schools they had applied to, had or had not been accepted at, were waiting to hear from, or were waitlisted at. Students consider four or five alternatives, and use eight to ten criteria in evaluating them. These figures do not change appreciably over the course of the process, although only about half the criteria or/and slightly more than half of the schools considered at one time are considered again 6 months later, and there are several changes in the kinds of criteria considered at different points in time. There was a marginally significant trend for higher ability and average ability students to consider more criteria, more distinct types of criteria, and more alternatives than do lower ability students. There were no gender differences in this regard. Gender differences and academic ability group differences were apparent, however, in the types of criteria students reported. Participation in multiple sessions in this study had few reliable effects on decision-making performance. Students were given a list of 34 standard criteria at each session, and incorporated some of these into their own lists of criteria during subsequent sessions. However, there was no indication that repeated participation led students to adopt a more analytical strategy than they would have otherwise. Data were compared with three linear models of information integration. Models using data with multiple criteria better fit the students' data than did a model using only the most important criterion. Higher ability students were particularly better able to integrate information according to linear models.     

Choosing what I want or keeping what I should: The effect of decision strategy on choice consistency

We examine decision-makers’ consistency vis-à-vis their own priorities in a multi-choice task, using either an inclusion or exclusion strategy to reduce a set of alternatives. Four studies demonstrate that people’s decisions are more consistent with their priorities when using an exclusion vs. an inclusion strategy to screen alternatives. Moreover, this effect was stronger for less knowledgeable than for more knowledgeable decision-makers. We examined two possible mechanisms behind this phenomenon. First, we suggest that the process of thinking about the positive aspects of the alternatives (associated with inclusion) encourages the decision-maker to more favorably evaluate options initially given low marks, resulting in less consistency with preferences. We also show that under exclusion, people tend to select the alternatives that they think they should choose, while under inclusion they tend to choose options that are more in line with what they would like to have but which may be perceived as luxuries.     

Inferences from decision difficulty

We propose that people infer the relative attractiveness of the choice alternatives from decision difficulty. A difficult decision signifies that the alternatives are close to each other in attractiveness, and an easy decision signifies that the alternatives are remote from each other in attractiveness. In Study 1, observers used reported decision difficulty to infer preferences of the decision maker. Studies 2-4 showed that inferences about the source of one’s own decision difficulty may affect a decision maker’s preferences. Study 4 integrates the notion of inferences from decision difficulty with dissonance theory, showing that in repeatable decisions difficulty reduces post-decisional spreading of alternatives, as predicted by our model, whereas with one-time decisions, difficulty enhances post-decisional spreading of alternatives, as predicted by dissonance theory.     

Context effects in multi-alternative decision making: empirical data and a Bayesian model

For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates-sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and sometimes they are constant. We provide evidence from two experiments that error rates are mostly independent of the number of choice alternatives, unless context effects induce participants to trade speed for accuracy across conditions. Error rate data have previously been used to discriminate between competing theoretical accounts of Hick's Law, and our results question the validity of those conclusions. We show that a previously dismissed optimal observer model might provide a parsimonious account of both response time and error rate data. The model suggests that people approximate Bayesian inference in multi-alternative choice, except for some perceptual limitations.     

Stereopsis from reversible and irreversible patterns

Eight subjects reported stereoscopic depth as a function of the magnitude and direction of disparity carried by a reversible grid or an irreversible solid surface. The former alternated between a diamond seen against a grating or a uniform rectangular grid pattern with stereoscopic depth reported only when the diamond was perceived. Depth was attenuated for the grid compared to the solid surface patterns. Disparity can be defined by perceptually extracted forms with depth present only when those forms are bounded by visible contours.