Investigating Ceiling Effects in Longitudinal Data Analysis

Score limitation at the top of a scale is commonly termed “ceiling effect.” Ceiling effects can lead to serious artifactual parameter estimates in most data analysis. This study examines the consequences of ceiling effects in longitudinal data analysis and investigates several methods of dealing with ceiling effects through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical data analyses. Data were simulated based on a latent growth curve model with T = 5 occasions. The proportion of the ceiling data [10%–40%] was manipulated by using different thresholds, and estimated parameters were examined for R = 500 replications. The results showed that ceiling effects led to incorrect model selection and biased parameter estimation (shape of the curve and magnitude of the changes) when regular growth curve models were applied. The Tobit growth curve model, instead, performed very well in dealing with ceiling effects in longitudinal data analysis. The Tobit growth curve model was then applied in an empirical cognitive aging study and the results were discussed.     

On growth curves and mixture models

The multilevel model of change and the latent growth model are flexible means to describe all sorts of population heterogeneity with respect to growth and development, including the presence of sub‐populations. The growth mixture model is a natural extension of these models. It comes at hand when information about sub‐populations is missing and researchers nevertheless want to retrieve developmental trajectories from sub‐populations. We argue that researchers have to make rather strong assumptions about the sub‐populations or latent trajectory classes in order to retrieve existing population differences. A simulated example is discussed, showing that a sample of repeated measures drawn from two sub‐populations easily leads to the mistaken inference of three sub‐populations, when assumptions are not met. The merits of methodological advises on this issue are discussed. It is concluded that growth mixture models should be used with understanding, and offer no free way to growth patterns in unknown sub‐populations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some—but not all—of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Latent growth curve analysis with dichotomous items: Comparing four approaches

A Monte Carlo study was used to compare four approaches to growth curve analysis of subjects assessed repeatedly with the same set of dichotomous items: A two‐step procedure first estimating latent trait measures using MULTILOG and then using a hierarchical linear model to examine the changing trajectories with the estimated abilities as the outcome variable; a structural equation model using modified weighted least squares (WLSMV) estimation; and two approaches in the framework of multilevel item response models, including a hierarchical generalized linear model using Laplace estimation, and Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These four methods have similar power in detecting the average linear slope across time. MCMC and Laplace estimates perform relatively better on the bias of the average linear slope and corresponding standard error, as well as the item location parameters. For the variance of the random intercept, and the covariance between the random intercept and slope, all estimates are biased in most conditions. For the random slope variance, only Laplace estimates are unbiased when there are eight time points.     

Ceiling Effects and Floor Effects of the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory

The current study investigated the effects of a brief psycho-educational presentation about posttraumatic growth (PTG: positive changes that may occur as a result of psychological struggle with a highly stressful life event) on the self-reported PTG by using the PTG Inventory (PTGI). Few empirical studies have investigated the possible ceiling or floor effects of the PTGI, despite researchers indicating the necessity of longitudinal studies to reveal the PTG processes. This study used a pre-test, brief presentation, and post-test longitudinal design to examine the effects of intervention among adolescents by considering the floor and ceiling effects of the PTGI. Participants, 54 high school students (37 females, 17 males, Mean age?=?15.92 years), completed the PTGI at three weeks interval. Results using the Latent Rank Theory approach demonstrated ceiling effects in students who reported a high degree of PTG at Time 1, and floor effects in students with low PTG at Time 1. Presentation effects were not evident even in those who reported a moderate degree of PTG at Time 1. These findings suggest that it is important to be aware of the ceiling/floor effects while measuring changes in PTG perception over time and that explaining the phenomenon of PTG is not likely to be enough to affect the PTG perceptions.     

Reconsidering the Use of Autoregressive Latent Trajectory (ALT) Models

The simultaneous estimation of autoregressive (simplex) structures and latent trajectories, so called ALT (autoregressive latent trajectory) models, is becoming an increasingly popular approach to the analysis of change. Although historically autoregressive (AR) and latent growth curve (LGC) models have been developed quite independently from each other, the underlying pattern of change is often highly similar. In this article it is shown that their integration rests on the strong assumption that neither the AR part nor the LGC part contains any misspecification. In practice, however, this assumption is often violated due to nonlinearity in the LGC part. As a consequence, the autoregressive (simplex) process incorrectly accounts for part of this nonlinearity, thus rendering any substantive interpretation of parameter estimates virtually impossible. Accordingly, researchers are advised to exercise extreme caution when using ALT models in practice. All arguments are illustrated by empirical data on skill acquisition, and a simulation study is provided to investigate the conditions and consequences of mistaking nonlinear growth curve patterns as autoregressive processes.     

多阶段混合增长模型的方法及研究现状

多阶段混合增长模型(PGMM)可对发展过程中的阶段性及群体异质性特征进行分析,在能力发展、行为发展及干预、临床心理等研究领域应用广泛。PGMM可在结构方程模型和随机系数模型框架下定义,通常使用基于EM算法的极大似然估计和基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的贝叶斯推断两种方法进行参数估计。样本量、测量时间点数、潜在类别距离等因素对模型及参数估计有显著影响。未来应加强PGMM与其它增长模型的比较研究;在相同或不同的模型框架下研究数据特征、类别属性等对参数估计方法的影响。     

Examining Spirituality Over Time: Latent Growth Curve and Individual Growth Curve Analyses

SUMMARY

Research on spirituality and religiousness has gained growing attention in recent years; however, most studies have used cross-sectional designs. As research on this topic evolves, there has been increasing recognition of the need to examine these constructs and their effects through the use of longitudinal designs. Beyond repeated-measures ANOVA and OLS regression models, what tools are available to examine these constructs over time? The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of two cutting-edge statistical techniques that will facilitate longitudinal investigations of spirituality and religiousness: latent growth curve analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) and individual growth curve models. The SEM growth curve approach examines change at the group level, with change over time expressed as a single latent growth factor. In contrast, individual growth curve models consider longitudinal change at the level of the person. While similar results may be obtained using either method, researchers may opt for one over the other due to the strengths and weaknesses associated with these methods. Examples of applications of both approaches to longitudinal studies of spirituality and religiousness are presented and discussed, along with design and data considerations when employing these modeling techniques.     

Trajectories of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Oppositional Defiant Disorder Symptoms as Precursors of Borderline Personality Disorder Symptoms in Adolescent Girls

Little empirical evidence exists regarding the developmental links between childhood psychopathology and borderline personality disorder (BPD) in adolescence. The current study addresses this gap by examining symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) as potential precursors. ADHD and BPD share clinical features of impulsivity, poor self-regulation, and executive dysfunction, while ODD and BPD share features of anger and interpersonal turmoil. The study is based on annual, longitudinal data from the two oldest cohorts in the Pittsburgh Girls Study (N = 1,233). We used piecewise latent growth curve models of ADHD and ODD scores from age 8 to 10 and 10 to 13 years to examine the prospective associations between dual trajectories of ADHD and ODD symptom severity and later BPD symptoms at age 14 in girls. To examine the specificity of these associations, we also included conduct disorder and depression symptom severity at age 14 as additional outcomes. We found that higher levels of ADHD and ODD scores at age 8 uniquely predicted BPD symptoms at age 14. Additionally, the rate of growth in ADHD scores from age 10 to 13 and the rate of growth in ODD scores from 8 to 10 uniquely predicted higher BPD symptoms at age 14. This study adds to the literature on the early development of BPD by providing the first longitudinal study to examine ADHD and ODD symptom trajectories as specific childhood precursors of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls.     

Association between Depressive Symptoms and Negative Dependent Life Events from Late Childhood to Adolescence

The association between stressful life events and depression has been consistently supported in the literature; however, studies of the developmental trajectories of these constructs and the nature of their association over time are limited. We examined trajectories of depressive symptoms and negative dependent life events and the associations between these constructs in a sample of 916 youth assessed annually from age 9 to 16, using latent growth curve modeling. Youth depressive symptoms, as rated by youth, parents, and teachers, decreased from late childhood into adolescence, whereas rates of youth-rated life events did not change significantly over time. Initial levels of depressive symptoms were positively associated with initial levels of life events. Furthermore, after controlling for the initial association between the two constructs, increases in depressive symptoms (as assessed by parents and youth) were positively associated with increases in life events over time. The study builds on prior research by focusing specifically on negative dependent life events, examining results across multiple informants, and employing latent growth curve modeling to evaluate associations between trajectories of life events and depressive symptoms in a longitudinal adolescent sample. Additional studies employing latent growth modeling to examine the changes in this association during adolescence are needed.     

Regularized Finite Mixture Models for Probability Trajectories

Finite mixture models are widely used in the analysis of growth trajectory data to discover subgroups of individuals exhibiting similar patterns of behavior over time. In practice, trajectories are usually modeled as polynomials, which may fail to capture important features of the longitudinal pattern. Focusing on dichotomous response measures, we propose a likelihood penalization approach for parameter estimation that is able to capture a variety of nonlinear class mean trajectory shapes with higher precision than maximum likelihood estimates. We show how parameter estimation and inference for whether trajectories are time-invariant, linear time-varying, or nonlinear time-varying can be carried out for such models. To illustrate the method, we use simulation studies and data from a long-term longitudinal study of children at high risk for substance abuse. This work was supported in part by NIAAA grants R37 AA07065 and R01 AA12217 to RAZ.     

Estimation of a Latent Variable Regression Growth Curve Model for Individuals Cross-Classified by Clusters

The cross-classified multiple membership latent variable regression (CCMM-LVR) model is a recent extension to the three-level latent variable regression (HM3-LVR) model which can be utilized for longitudinal data that contains individuals who changed clusters over time (for instance, student mobility across schools). The HM3-LVR model can include the initial status on growth effect as varying across those clusters and allows testing of more flexible hypotheses about the influence of initial status on growth and of factors that might impact that relationship, but only in the presence of pure clustering of participants within higher-level units. This Monte Carlo study was conducted to evaluate model estimation under a variety of conditions and to measure the impact of ignoring cross-classified data when estimating the incorrectly specified HM3-LVR model in a scenario in which true values for parameters are known. Furthermore, results from a real-data analysis were used to inform the design of the simulation. Overall, it would be recommended for researchers to utilize the CCMM-LVR model over the HM3-LVR model when individuals are cross-classified, and to use a bare minimum of more than 100 clustering units in order to avoid overestimation of the level-3 variance component estimates.     

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Mediation Processes

Statistical mediation analysis can help to identify and explain the mechanisms behind psychological processes. Examining a set of variables for mediation effects is a ubiquitous process in the social sciences literature; however, despite evidence suggesting that cross-sectional data can misrepresent the mediation of longitudinal processes, cross-sectional analyses continue to be used in this manner. Alternative longitudinal mediation models, including those rooted in a structural equation modeling framework (cross-lagged panel, latent growth curve, and latent difference score models) are currently available and may provide a better representation of mediation processes for longitudinal data. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, we provide a comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models; second, we advocate using models to evaluate mediation effects that capture the temporal sequence of the process under study. Two separate empirical examples are presented to illustrate differences in the conclusions drawn from cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation analyses. Findings from these examples yielded substantial differences in interpretations between the cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models considered here. Based on these observations, researchers should use caution when attempting to use cross-sectional data in place of longitudinal data for mediation analyses.     

Regression Mixture Models: Does Modeling the Covariance Between Independent Variables and Latent Classes Improve the Results?

Regression mixture models are increasingly used as an exploratory approach to identify heterogeneity in the effects of a predictor on an outcome. In this simulation study, we tested the effects of violating an implicit assumption often made in these models; that is, independent variables in the model are not directly related to latent classes. Results indicate that the major risk of failing to model the relationship between predictor and latent class was an increase in the probability of selecting additional latent classes and biased class proportions. In addition, we tested whether regression mixture models can detect a piecewise relationship between a predictor and outcome. Results suggest that these models are able to detect piecewise relations but only when the relationship between the latent class and the predictor is included in model estimation. We illustrate the implications of making this assumption through a reanalysis of applied data examining heterogeneity in the effects of family resources on academic achievement. We compare previous results (which assumed no relation between independent variables and latent class) to the model where this assumption is lifted. Implications and analytic suggestions for conducting regression mixture based on these findings are noted.     

多阶段混合增长模型的影响因素：距离与形态

通过模拟研究, 考察潜类别距离和发展形态等因素对多阶段混合增长模型的模型选择和参数估计的影响：(1)潜类别距离越大, 模型选择和分类效果越好。(2)混合模型的选择, 应以一定样本量(至少200)为前提, 首先考虑BIC选出正确的分类模型, 再通过熵值、ARI等选择分类确定性较高的模型。(3)多阶段的发展形态对正确模型的选择和分类的确定性均有一定程度影响。(4)潜类别距离和样本量越大, 参数估计精度越高。(5)在判断分类准确性的指标中, ARI的选择更偏向于真实的模型。     

新世纪20年国内心理统计方法研究回顾

新世纪头20年, 国内心理学11本专业期刊一共发表了213篇统计方法研究论文。研究范围主要包括以下10类(按论文篇数排序)：结构方程模型、测验信度、中介效应、效应量与检验力、纵向研究、调节效应、探索性因子分析、潜在类别模型、共同方法偏差和多层线性模型。对各类做了简单的回顾与梳理。结果发现, 国内心理统计方法研究的广度和深度都不断增加, 研究热点在相互融合中共同发展; 但综述类论文比例较大, 原创性研究论文比例有待提高, 研究力量也有待加强。     

A generalized longitudinal mixture IRT model for measuring differential growth in learning environments

This article describes a generalized longitudinal mixture item response theory (IRT) model that allows for detecting latent group differences in item response data obtained from electronic learning (e-learning) environments or other learning environments that result in large numbers of items. The described model can be viewed as a combination of a longitudinal Rasch model, a mixture Rasch model, and a random-item IRT model, and it includes some features of the explanatory IRT modeling framework. The model assumes the possible presence of latent classes in item response patterns, due to initial person-level differences before learning takes place, to latent class-specific learning trajectories, or to a combination of both. Moreover, it allows for differential item functioning over the classes. A Bayesian model estimation procedure is described, and the results of a simulation study are presented that indicate that the parameters are recovered well, particularly for conditions with large item sample sizes. The model is also illustrated with an empirical sample data set from a Web-based e-learning environment.     

Development of approximate number sense across the elementary school years: A cross‐cultural longitudinal study

In recent years, there has been growing interest among researchers in exploring approximate number sense (ANS)—the ability to estimate and discriminate quantities without the use of symbols. Despite the growing number of studies on ANS, there have been no cross‐cultural longitudinal studies to estimate both the development of ANS and the cross‐cultural differences in ANS growth trajectories. In this study, we aimed to estimate the developmental trajectories of ANS from the beginning of formal education to the end of elementary school in two countries, Russia and Kyrgyzstan, which have similar organization of their educational systems but differences in socioeconomic status (SES) and in the results of large‐scale educational assessments. To assess the developmental trajectories of ANS, we used a four‐wave longitudinal study with 416 participants from two countries and applied the mixed effect growth approach and the latent class growth approach. Our analysis revealed that the rate of growth in ANS accuracy was higher for the Russian sample than for the Kyrgyz sample and that this difference remained significant even after controlling for fluid intelligence. We identified two latent classes of growth trajectories: the first class had a significant growth in ANS, whereas the second class had no growth. Comparing the distribution of latent classes within the two countries revealed that there was a significantly larger proportion of schoolchildren from the second class in Kyrgyzstan than in Russia.     

Modeling Growth in Latent Variables Using a Piecewise Function

Latent growth curve models with piecewise functions for continuous repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and versatile tools for investigating individual behavior that exhibits distinct phases of development in observed variables. As an extension of this framework, this research study considers a piecewise function for describing segmented change of a latent construct over time where the latent construct is itself measured by multiple indicators gathered at each measurement occasion. The time of transition from one phase to another is not known a priori and thus is a parameter to be estimated. Utility of the model is highlighted in 2 ways. First, a small Monte Carlo simulation is executed to show the ability of the model to recover true (known) growth parameters, including the location of the point of transition (or knot), under different manipulated conditions. Second, an empirical example using longitudinal reading data is fitted via maximum likelihood and results discussed. Mplus (Version 6.1) code is provided in Appendix C to aid in making this class of models accessible to practitioners.