We saw it all along: visual hindsight bias in children and adults

Abstract— We traced the developmental origins and trajectory of the hindsight bias. Three-, 4-, and 5-year-old children and adults identified gradually clarifying images of degraded common objects on a computer. Half the time, observers did not know in advance what the object would become. The rest of the time, observers knew the object's identity in advance and estimated when a naive same-age peer would identify the clarifying object. In two experiments, children and adults demonstrated hindsight bias by using advance knowledge to overestimate their same-age peers' ability to identify the objects. The magnitude of this bias declined across age in one experiment, but remained relatively stable over age in the other experiment. These findings link developmental psychology and adult cognitive science.     

Hindsight bias in economic expectations: I knew all along what I want to hear

Hindsight bias in economic expectations was investigated with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes. Stronger hindsight bias was expected for subjectively favorable economic developments. Six months before and after the introduction of the euro as the official book currency of the European Monetary Union, participants rated the probabilities of several economic developments. Results show that hindsight bias occurs with economic expectations and that it is moderated by attitudes. Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive economic developments than for negative ones, whereas euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. The results support the notion that hindsight bias is a reconstruction bias in which self-serving tendencies can influence the reconstruction selectively for favorable and unfavorable outcomes.     

"I knew we would win": hindsight bias for favorable and unfavorable team decision outcomes

This study examined hindsight bias for team decisions in a competitive setting in which groups attempted to outperform each other. It was anticipated that, because of self-serving mechanisms, individuals would show hindsight bias only when decision outcomes allowed them to take credit for their own team's success or to downgrade another team for being unsuccessful. MBA students playing a market simulation game made hindsight estimates regarding the likelihood that either their own or another team would perform well. Consistent with a self-serving interpretation, when decision outcomes were favorable individuals evaluating their own team, but not those evaluating another, showed hindsight bias. When outcomes were unfavorable individuals evaluating their own team did not show hindsight bias, but those evaluating another team did. Discussion focuses on implications of hindsight bias in team decision-making settings.     

Debiasing the hindsight bias: The role of accessibility experiences and (mis)attributions

Two studies tested the role of accessibility experiences and attributions in debiasing the hindsight bias. Participants listed 4 or 12 thoughts about how a college football game, or the 2000 US Presidential election, might have turned out differently. Listing 12 thoughts was experienced as difficult, suggesting to participants that there were few ways in which the event could have turned out otherwise. Hindsight biases increased under this condition, unless participants attributed the difficulty of the thought generation to their own lack of knowledge, which resulted in a trend in the opposite direction. The interplay of accessible content, accessibility experiences and attribution in mental simulation is discussed.     

SARA: a cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias

The cognitive process model "SARA" aims to explain the anchoring effect and hindsight bias by making detailed assumptions about the representation and alteration of item-specific knowledge. The model assumes that all processes, namely generating an estimate, encoding new information (i.e., the "anchor"), and reconstructing a previously generated estimate, are based on a probabilistic sampling process. Sampling probes long-term memory in order to retrieve information into working memory. Retrieval depends on the associative strength between this information and the currently active retrieval cues. Encoding the anchor may alter this associative pattern ("selective activation") or the anchor may serve as a retrieval cue, thus directing memory search ("biased reconstruction"). Both processes lead to systematically changed retrieval probabilities, thus causing the anchoring effect or hindsight bias. The model is completely formalised and implemented as a computer program. A series of simulations demonstrates the power of SARA to reproduce empirical findings and to predict new ones.     

SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias

The cognitive process model "SARA" aims to explain the anchoring effect and hindsight bias by making detailed assumptions about the representation and alteration of item-specific knowledge. The model assumes that all processes, namely generating an estimate, encoding new information (i.e., the "anchor"), and reconstructing a previously generated estimate, are based on a probabilistic sampling process. Sampling probes long-term memory in order to retrieve information into working memory. Retrieval depends on the associative strength between this information and the currently active retrieval cues. Encoding the anchor may alter this associative pattern ("selective activation") or the anchor may serve as a retrieval cue, thus directing memory search ("biased reconstruction"). Both processes lead to systematically changed retrieval probabilities, thus causing the anchoring effect or hindsight bias. The model is completely formalised and implemented as a computer program. A series of simulations demonstrates the power of SARA to reproduce empirical findings and to predict new ones.     

Mirror,mirror on the wall,tell me that I have succeeded at it all: Self-esteem and the defensive mechanisms against failure

Social Psychology of Education - Students face frequent formal and informal tests, both in the academic context and social life. On each of these occasions, they risk falling short of their own or...     

Observers' reactions to genetic testing: the role of hindsight bias and judgements of responsibility

In 3 studies, we examined the effect of birth outcome on observers' reactions to genetic testing. Participants read a scenario in which a woman declined to take a genetic screening test and subsequently gave birth to a child with a genetic disorder (negative outcome) or a healthy child (positive outcome). Retrospective judgments of the likelihood that the child would have a genetic disorder were higher given negative than positive outcome knowledge under conditions of high genetic risk. Moreover, the more likely a negative outcome was perceived to be, the more responsible the mother was held for not taking the genetic screening test. Consistent with Weiner's (1993) theory, responsibility judgments were linked to displeasure and sympathy, with sympathy in turn being related to help judgments.     

The role prioritization model: How communal men and agentic women can (sometimes) have it all

Men and women are persistently associated with breadwinning and caregiving roles and related stereotypes. A role prioritization model (RPM) is presented that accounts for the conditions under which penalties and benefits arise due to perceived fulfillment or neglect of communal/caregiving roles (typically associated with women) and agentic/breadwinning roles (typically associated with men). Our model makes unique contributions to understanding gender stereotyping and negative evaluations for stereotype violation (i.e., backlash). First, behaviors suggesting low prioritization of one's traditional gender role—when women appear to neglect caregiving and men neglect breadwinning—produce particularly harsh judgments. Second, behaviors indicating successful balancing of role prioritization (e.g., men who augment breadwinning with communal behavior and women who augment childrearing with agentic behavior) allow avoidance of backlash. The RPM is useful for organizing existing research on gendered perceptions and for understanding perceptions of men and women who violate gender norms to create greater gender equality.     

Accessibility effects on implicit social cognition: the role of knowledge activation and retrieval experiences

Performance on measures of implicit social cognition has been shown to vary as a function of the momentary accessibility of relevant information. The present research investigated the mechanisms underlying accessibility effects of self-generated information on implicit measures. Results from 3 experiments demonstrate that measures based on response compatibility processes (e.g., Implicit Association Test, affective priming with an evaluative decision task) are influenced by subjective feelings pertaining to the ease of retrieving relevant information from memory, whereas measures based on stimulus compatibility processes (e.g., semantic priming with a lexical-decision task) are influenced by direct knowledge activation in associative memory. These results indicate that the mediating mechanisms underlying context effects on implicit measures can differ as a function of the task even when these tasks show similar effects on a superficial level. Implications for research on implicit social cognition and the ease-of-retrieval effect are discussed.     

Social interpretation bias and generalized social phobia: the influence of developmental experiences

Patients with generalized social phobia (N = 42) and non-phobic community controls (N = 42) engaged in a social interaction with an experimental assistant whose behavior was used to create either a positive or an ambiguous social environment. Participants then rated their own performance and their partner's behavior. As a group, social phobic patients displayed negatively biased self-judgments, but failed to display biased social interpretations. Among the social phobia group, a social developmental history marked by parental hostility was associated with negative interpretations of partner behavior and a history of parental overprotection was associated with less sensitivity to partner behavior. The results supported cognitive models of social phobia, which implicate negative learning experiences in the development of information processing biases.     

"I couldn't have seen it coming": the impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability

We examined a phenomenon related to hindsight bias, specifically, retrospective judgements about the foreseeability of an outcome. We predicted that negative, self-relevant outcomes would be judged as less foreseeable by the recipient of the outcome than by others, unlike either positive outcomes or outcomes that are not self-relevant. In the context of a "stock market decision-making game", the hypothetical stock selected by one of two players showed an extreme increase or decrease. As predicted, the player who received an extreme negative outcome reported that this outcome was less foreseeable than did the opponent and an observer, for whom the outcome was less self-relevant. For no other kind of outcome was there a difference between the recipient of an outcome, the opponent, and the observer. The findings have several implications, including the possibility that hindsight bias should be considered as a special case of retrospective foreseeability.     

"I could see, and yet, mon, I could na' see": William Macewen, the agnosias, and brain surgery

Two little noticed cases in which William Macewen used symptoms of visual agnosia to plan brain surgery on the angular gyrus are reviewed and evaluated. Following a head injury, Macewen's first patient had an immediate and severe visual object agnosia that lasted for about 2 weeks. After that he gradually became homicidal and depressed and it was for those symptoms that Macewen first saw him, some 11 months after the accident. From his examination, Macewen concluded that the agnosia clearly indicated a lesion in "the posterior portion of the operculum or in the angular gyrus." When he removed parts of the internal table that had penetrated those structures the homicidal impulses disappeared. Macewen's second patient was seen for a chronic middle ear infection and, although neither aphasic nor deaf, was 'word deaf.' Slightly later he became 'psychically blind' as well. Macewen suspected a cerebral abscess pressing on both the angular gyrus and the first temporal convolution. A large subdural abscess was found there and the symptoms disappeared after it was treated. The patients are discussed and Macewen's positive results analysed in the historical context of the dispute over the proposed role of the angular gyrus as the visual centre.     

He's gotta have it: shopping dependence and the homosexual male clothing consumer

Shopping is not always ‘fun’ and is not always ‘therapeutic’, yet, the negative aspects and motivations for this behaviour have received little attention. Consumers often may be dependent upon shopping activity to satisfy personal needs, such as emotional repair and self‐image, which are far removed from the acquisition and use of products. Not only may this dependence be dysfunctional in that it signals an individual's inability to control their shopping behaviour but also it may be symptomatic of more serious problems, such as compulsive and even addictive shopping. This paper explores this shopping dependence in the context of fashion clothing consumption. Male consumers are considered, with sexual orientation employed as an indicator of behaviour. Data from a survey of 225 homosexual and 225 heterosexual UK males suggest that homosexual males display clothes shopping dependence, and at a level that is significantly stronger than for heterosexuals. Younger males show a greater tendency to display such behaviour, with dependence declining with age for both groups. Managerial and research implications are considered. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

But murderers can have all the children they want: Surrogacy and public policy

No new ethical issue is created by reproductive technologies. The state should not intervene to suppress individual rights to take advantage of these technologies, including third party donations. Some individuals will view these technologies as the best available option for having and rearing children. The major values to be protected in public policy ought to be compassion, privacy and procreative rights.     

Why versus how often: Causal reasoning and the incidence of judgmental bias

When faced with the task of making a prediction or estimating a likelihood, it is argued that people often reason about the presence or absence and relative strength of possible causal mechanisms for the production of relevant outcomes. In so doing people rely on “causal cues” or properties of an inferential problem which indicate the nature of the particular causal processes which give rise to specific outcomes. It is hypothesized that causal cues, precisely because they focus attention and thought on specific causal mechanisms, can obscure the relevance of mathematical laws of probability and lead to statistically biased judgment. Two experiments were conducted. Their results support the hypothesis, showing that the incidence of the conjunction fallacy and the base rate fallacy depend on task-specific cues for causal reasoning.     

Understanding the past: Investigating the role of availability,outcome, and hindsight bias and close calls in visual pilots' weather‐related decision making

Past events, such as “close calls,” can provide valuable learning opportunities, especially in aviation, where learning from past errors could potentially help to avoid future incidents or accidents. This study investigated whether three cognitive biases (availability, outcome, and hindsight bias) could influence pilots' perceptions of past events, which in turn might influence their perception of events yet to occur. Study 1 found that pilots were influenced by the outcome of a flight when judging decision quality. Of particular interest was that pilots interpreted events that led to a close call very similarly to those that had positive outcomes, which may reinforce risky behaviour. However, although adequately powered, Study 1 found no evidence of availability bias: Exposure to one of four outcomes did not appear to influence later decisions. Study 2 found that having read a flight report, particularly if it ended in a crash, pilots consistently overestimated their likelihood of predicting the actual outcome, which may reduce any opportunity to learn. These findings suggest that two of the three cognitive biases explored in this study could influence a pilot's perception of past events in ways that may adversely affect how they make future decisions that in turn may affect flight safety.     

“What I did” versus “what I might have done”: Effect of factual versus counterfactual thinking on blame, guilt, and shame in prisoners

The present study tested the prediction that counterfactual thinking would have a stronger amplificatory effect on guilt than on shame and that the effect would be mediated by self-blame. Ninety sentenced prisoners were instructed to think either counterfactually or factually about the role they played in the events leading to their capture, conviction, and sentencing prior to reporting on their level of self-blame, guilt, and shame. Compared to factual-focused prisoners, counterfactual-focused prisoners reported feeling more blameworthy and guiltier but not more shameful. The effect of thought focus on guilt was fully mediated by blame. The findings support an emotion-specific account of the emotional consequences of counterfactual thinking that implicate attributional judgment as an important mediating process.     

John Exner and the book that started it all: a review of The Rorschach Systems

This article is a review and a reassessment of Exner's (1969) The Rorschach Systems. The book reviews the history of the development of the Rorschach, primarily in the United States, including a detailed analysis of the progressive development of systems devised by Klopfer, Beck, Piotrowski, Hertz, Rapaport, and Schafer. The final versions of each system are compared with each other, and with Rorschach's own system. The development of the book is linked to Exner' s personal relationship with Klopfer, Beck, and Hertz. The book is described as the basic forerunner of Exner's Comprehensive System.     

Who you could have known: divine hiddenness,epistemic counterfactuals,and the recalcitrant nature of natural theology

We argue there is a deep conflict in Paul Moser’s work on divine hiddenness (DH). Moser’s treatment of DH adopts a thesis we call SEEK: DH often results from failing to seek God on His terms. One way in which people err, according to Moser, is by trusting arguments of traditional natural theology to lead to filial knowledge of God. We argue that Moser’s SEEK thesis commits him to the counterfactual ACCESS: had the atheist sought after God in harmony with how God reveals himself, she would have had access to filial knowledge of God. By failing to incorporate arguments or propositional evidence for God’s existence, Moser’s account leaves the doubting seeker without any evidential reason to think that either SEEK or ACCESS is true. Without this rational motivation in place, the doubting seeker is unlikely to seek after God in the way ACCESS describes. We argue that natural theology provides an evidential epistemic aid to motivate persons to seek God the way ACCESS describes. Thus, Moser is mistaken. Such arguments can be evidentially helpful in coming to know God. In conclusion, we explain how our reply naturally fits how we form and maintain trusting interpersonal relationships with others.