Multicriteria approval: application of approval voting concepts to MCDM problems

Multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods generally require information that is difficult and expensive to obtain. It is shown in this paper that given an ordering of criteria by importance, and whether each alternative is above the average evaluation of the alternatives for each criterion, considerable information can be extracted concerning the overall rankings of the alternatives. This is done by recognizing the similarity between criteria in MCDM, and voters in social choice theory. Multicriteria approval, proposed in this paper, is an MCDM adaptation of approval voting which can be used to classify decisions into one of several categories, depending on whether, and the manner in which, a superior alternative can be identified. An exhaustive examination of all possible decision situations of tractable size is made to measure the applicability of multicriteria approval, and the approach is demonstrated in an industrial procurement case. In addition to requiring minimal information from a decision maker, multicriteria approval satisfies several desirable criteria for MCDM techniques. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Problem formulation for multi-criteria decision analysis: report of a workshop

This paper reports on a workshop on Problem Formulation in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis held at SPUDM97. The focus of the workshop was the problem formulation phase which occurs between the analyst meeting a person with a ‘mess’ and the time he or she begins to analyse a structured problem with several alternatives scored against several attributes or criteria. The objectives were: to share experience on procedures which might be transferable between the methodologies; to demonstrate different skills used by the analyst in structuring decision problems; and to catalyse a discussion on the problem formulation phase of an analysis. Three analysts, who generally approach problems using multiattribute methods, addressed the same problem. The problem used was constructed to be realistic to three decision makers, who had been trained in the issues of concern. There were two sessions. Each analyst was assigned a decision maker and formulated the problem independently in the first session, held in parallel. They were each observed by two observers and many of the audience at the workshop. The three formulations were presented along with the comments of the observers and discussed at a second plenary session. This paper reports the three formulations and observations, remarking on the ‘tricks of the trade’ employed by the analysts in formulating the problem. The analysts also describe their thinking and their aims in adopting their approach and style of interaction. More general remarks on the process of decision analysis are also offered. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comment on ‘Rank Disagreement: A Comparison of Multi-Criteria Methodologies’

In a recent paper in this journal, Buede and Maxwell found reasonable agreement between MAVT and conventional AHP most preferred alternatives in a large-scale simulation. We show that MAVT would have had total agreement on preferred alternatives with two modified forms of AHP, referenced AHP and linking pin AHP, under simulation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multiple-objective linear programming model for the citrus rootstock selection problem in Florida

Citrus is one of Florida's key agricultural crops, with annual production accounting for over 70% of all U.S. production. During the 1970s and 1980s, citrus blight, tristeza and freezes caused citrus rootstock selection to become a critical issue in Florida, and it remains so today. This paper describes a multiple-objective linear programming model that we have developed for solving the citrus roostock selection problem in Florida. The model has four objective functions. These functions, together with the constraints of the model, capture the main factors that Florida citrus growers use in choosing portfolios of rootstocks for planting in their groves. We tested the usefulness of this model by solving an experimental application for the Fort Pierce area with the interactive STEM algorithm. From our research we conclude that, when properly solved with the aid of STEM, the multiple-objective linear programming model has the potential to serve Florida citrus growers as a useful decision aid in formulating rootstock selection plans. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MCDM methods in strategic planning of forestry on state‐owned lands in Finland: applications and experiences

The forests in Finland have been under intensive planning for decades. Currently, mathematical programming is widely used in planning of wood production. Today's multi‐functional forestry, however, calls for more flexible decision support methods. MCDM tools have been used in responding to fresh planning challenges. For example, the Finnish Forest and Park Service, entrusted with the care of the vast majority of state‐owned natural resources in Finland, endeavours to produce large‐scale natural resource plans satisfying the needs of both economic, social, and ecological sustainability. Participatory approach is applied in the process. Several forestry applications of MCDM methods, particularly those making use of the AHP or the HIPRE program, have been presented. Also, the outranking methods ELECTRE and PROMETHEE have been tested. Due to the nature of forestry applications, statistical techniques for analysing uncertainties in pairwise comparisons and for utilizing interval judgement data have been developed to improve the usability of the AHP. Recently, a hybrid method called A'WOT, making use of the AHP and SWOT, was also introduced into strategic forest planning. This paper summarizes the experiences gained in applying a MAVT and two outranking methods in connection with a participatory natural resource planning process in Finland. In addition, some results of the method development work related to application needs are briefly presented. The details of the planning cases reviewed here have previously been presented in forestry journals. The purpose of this paper is not only to show how MCDM methods have been applied in forestry, but also to discuss the usability and usefulness of MCDM methods from the viewpoint of supporting forestry decision making—and how they might further be improved. Also, some perspectives for the future development work of MCDM applications in the field of natural resource management are focused on. As a conclusion, the use of more than just one MCDM method in a single planning process is seen usually recommendable. In addition, developing hybrid MCDM methods is regarded as a potential direction for future research. Also, closer co‐operation between method developers and appliers is called for to produce more useful applications. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing graphic and symbolic classification in interactive multiobjective optimization

In interactive multiobjective optimization systems, the classification of objective functions is a convenient way to direct the solution process in order to search for new, more satisfactory, solutions in the set of Pareto optimal solutions. Classification means that the decision maker assigns the objective functions into classes depending on what kind of changes in their values (in relation to the current values) are desirable. Here we study the role of user interfaces in implementing classification in multiobjective optimization software and how classification should be realized. In this way, we want to pay attention to the usability of multiobjective optimization software. Typically, this topic has not been of interest in the multiobjective optimization literature. However, usability aspect is important because in interactive classification‐based multiobjective optimization methods, the classification is the core of the solution process. We can say that the more convenient the classification is, the more efficient the system or the method is and the better it supports the work of the decision maker. We report experiments with two classification options, graphic and symbolic ones, which are used in connection with an interactive multiobjective optimization system WWW‐NIMBUS. The ideas and conclusions given are applicable for other interactive classification‐based method, as well. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The decision tree polytope and its application to sequential decision problems

This paper describes a new mathematical programming approach to sequential decision problems that have an underlying decision tree structure. The approach, based upon a characterization of strategies as extreme points of a 0–1 polytope called the ‘decision tree polytope’, is particularly suited to the direct examination of risk-return and other tradeoffs amongst strategies. However, it can also be used for conventional utility maximization if a utility function is available. Further, the approach requires no algorithmic development—it can be implemented using commercially available algebraic modeling software and can solve large problems. A related, and already known, approach can be used for some more general Markov decision problems. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复杂问题解决：探索人们如何控制复杂动态系统

复杂问题解决研究的目的是探索人们如何处理复杂、动态任务。Dorner作为该领域的先驱,将计算机模拟情境作为研究工具,后来的研究者从不同的角度进行复杂问题解决研究。本文介绍了复杂问题解决研究的发展历史,总结了复杂问题解决情境的特征,包括动态性、复杂性、模糊性以及时间滞后性,进一步比较了复杂问题解决与自然决策和动态决策的差别。在此基础上,从控制系统的个体要求以及系统特征等方面总结了在Dorner的个体差异比较范式下复杂问题解决研究的进展。最后提出复杂问题解决研究的展望。     

Valuing the future: a MADA example involving nuclear waste storage

Intertemporal decision making involves decisions that have consequences that span several periods of time and often extend far into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and highlight the differences associated with different evaluation methods designed to cope with the long-term impacts of a decision including discounting. The concepts and ideas are illustrated in the context of a decision about a nuclear waste facility. We show how applying different discounting methodologies can greatly affect the decision made, especially over long time periods. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotion,Decision, and Risk: Betting on Gambles versus Betting on People

We examined the effects of two emotions, fear and anger, on risk‐taking behavior in two types of tasks: Those in which uncertainty is generated by a randomizing device (“lottery risk”) and those in which it is generated by the uncertain behavior of another person (“person‐based risk”). Participants first completed a writing task to induce fear or anger. They then made choices either between lotteries (Experiment 1) or between actions in risky two‐person decisions (Experiments 2 and 3). The experiments involved substantial real‐money payoffs. Replicating earlier studies (which used hypothetical rewards), Experiment 1 showed that fearful participants were more risk‐averse than angry participants in lottery‐risk tasks. However—the key result of this study—fearful participants were substantially less risk‐averse than angry participants in a two‐person task involving person‐based risk (Experiment 2). Experiment 3 offered options and payoffs identical to those of Experiment 2 but with lottery‐type risk. Risk‐taking returned to the pattern of Experiment 1. The impact of incidental emotions on risk‐taking appears to be contingent on the class of uncertainty involved. For lottery risk, fear increased the frequency of risk‐averse choices and anger reduced it. The reverse pattern was found when uncertainty in the decision was person‐based. Further, the effect was specifically on differences in willingness to take risks rather than on differences in judgments of how much risk was present. The impact of different emotions on risk‐taking or risk‐avoiding behavior is thus contingent on the type, as well as the degree, of uncertainty the decision maker faces. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

问题解决:涵义、过程与教学模式

提高学生解决问题能力已经成为现代教育的一个重要目标。问题解决就是由一定情境引起的,按照一定的目标,应用各种认知活动、技能等,经过一系列思维操作,使问题得以解决的过程。本文界定了问题和问题解决的概念内涵,构建了问题解决的过程模型,进而提出了问题解决的教学模式和教学策略。     

An interactive fuzzy satisficing method for multiobjective stochastic linear programming problems using chance constrained conditions

Two major approaches to deal with randomness or ambiguity involved in mathematical programming problems have been developed. They are stochastic programming approaches and fuzzy programming approaches. In this paper, we focus on multiobjective linear programming problems with random variable coefficients in objective functions and/or constraints. Using chance constrained programming techniques, the stochastic programming problems are transformed into deterministic ones. As a fusion of stochastic approaches and fuzzy ones, after determining the fuzzy goals of the decision maker, interactive fuzzy satisficing methods to derive a satisficing solution for the decision maker by updating the reference membership levels is presented. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Q‐sort methodology: Bridging the divide between qualitative and quantitative. An introduction to an innovative method for psychotherapy research

Q‐methodology offers unique opportunities for counselling and psychotherapy researchers and clinicians. It is an innovative technique capable of bridging the divide between clinical knowledge and the quantitative systematisation of it. It was initially developed by Stephenson as a data collection and data analytic method to empirically study human subjectivity. It was then extended by the British School to study shared viewpoints, thereby adopting a multi‐participant design and a highly unusual form of qualitative analysis. Finally, it was adapted by the Californian School for use as a standardised observer‐rated assessment tool. Its attractiveness stems from its aptitude to produce holistic data as it collects both quantitative and narrative data. This paper will provide an introduction to Q‐statistics and Q‐methodology (person‐centred) by contrasting it to R‐statistics and R‐methodology (variable‐centred). It will then provide an overview of the three schools of Q‐methodology and their various merits demonstrated with an example.     

The discounting model selector: Statistical software for delay discounting applications

Original, open‐source computer software was developed and validated against established delay discounting methods in the literature. The software executed approximate Bayesian model selection methods from user‐supplied temporal discounting data and computed the effective delay 50 (ED50) from the best performing model. Software was custom‐designed to enable behavior analysts to conveniently apply recent statistical methods to temporal discounting data with the aid of a graphical user interface (GUI). The results of independent validation of the approximate Bayesian model selection methods indicated that the program provided results identical to that of the original source paper and its methods. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 50,000) confirmed that true model was selected most often in each setting. Simulation code and data for this study were posted to an online repository for use by other researchers. The model selection approach was applied to three existing delay discounting data sets from the literature in addition to the data from the source paper. Comparisons of model selected ED50 were consistent with traditional indices of discounting. Conceptual issues related to the development and use of computer software by behavior analysts and the opportunities afforded by free and open‐sourced software are discussed and a review of possible expansions of this software are provided.     

Optimal trade-offs of multiple factors in transfer pricing problems

Transfer pricing problems have been extensively researched by a number of scholars. It is well recognized that transfer pricing problems have a multiple-criteria (objectives) feature and can be formulated as a model of multiple-criteria linear programming. However, few methods have the capability of dealing with all possible optimal trade-offs of multiple criteria in optimal solutions of the models. In this paper a linear multiple-factor model is developed to provide managers with a more systematic and comprehensive scenario of all possible optimal transfer prices depending on both multiple criteria and multiple constraint levels. The trade-offs of all possible optimal transfer prices can be used as a basis for managers of a corporation to make a high-quality decision in selecting their transfer pricing systems for business competition. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An application of visual interactive goal programming: a case in vendor selection decisions

This article presents the vendor selection problem of the hydraulic pump division of a US original equipment manufacturing company. The division wants to identify appropriate vendors and allocate purchase orders among them while minimizing product acquisition costs and maximizing total product quality and delivery reliability. Visual interactive goal programming is used as a multi‐criteria decision analysis tool. Interaction with decision makers during the model building and solution process, and implications are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental risks: Scientific concepts and social perception

Using the example of air pollution, I criticize a restricted utilitarian view of environmental risks. It is likely that damage to health due to environmental pollution in Western countries is relatively modest in quantitative terms (especially when considering cancer and comparing such damage to the effects of some life-style exposures). However, a strictly quantitative approach, which ranks priorities according to the burden of disease attributable to single causes, is questionable because it does not consider such aspects as inequalities in the distribution of risks. Secondly, the ability of epidemiological research to identify some health effects is limited. Third, the environment has symbolic and aesthetic components that overcome a strict evaluation of damage based on the impairment of human health. It is not acceptable that priorities be set just balancing the burden of disease caused by pollution in the environment against economic constraints. As an example of a computation that inherently includes economic analysis, I refer to the proposal of an estimator of mortality in coal mining, i.e., a rate which puts deaths in the numerator and tons of coal extracted in the denominator. According to this estimator, mortality due to accidents decreased from 1.15 to 0.42 in the period 1950–1970 in the United States, for each million tons of coal extracted. However, considering the steep decline in the workforce in the same period, the traditional mortality rate (deaths over persons-time) actually increased. The proposal of a measure of mortality based on the amount of coal extracted is just one example of the attempts to influence decisions by including an economic element (productivity) in risk assessment. This paper has three purposes: One, to describe empirical research concerning the health effects of environmental pollutants; two, to discuss the scientific principles and methods used in the identification of environmental hazards; and three, to critically discuss some of the ethical principles which are applied in medicine and in the assessment and management of risk.     

Group Ethical Decision Making Process in Chinese Business: Analysis From Social Decision Scheme and Cultural Perspectives

Literature concerning group ethical decision making in a business setting has traditionally focused on directly comparing group versus individual decisions and then investigating differences. Analysis of the interactive process of group ethical decision making appears sparse. This study addresses the gap by investigating group decision making from a social decision scheme (SDS) perspective in a Chinese cultural setting. A cohort of Chinese accountancy students evaluated ethical business scenarios individually and then in a group context. Group responses could be explained in terms of both the SDS and the Chinese cultural perspective (zhongyong). Specifically, groups did not select the most ethical choice but rather the most moderate of all choices advocated by the majority (zhongyong). These results show the application of SDS theory in a culturally specific (Chinese) environment and note the impact of culturally specific factors (zhongyong) on business decision making. The implications are significant for business. If ethical decisions are entrusted to groups, the impact of culturally specific factors must be fully appreciated in evaluating the final decision.