Crime in College Predicts Violent Crime in the National Football League

ABSTRACT

The relationship between past and future crime is one of the most robust findings within criminology. Yet, there have been few attempts to examine whether this linkage holds in specific employment arenas. In this study, we consider the relationship between past and future crime within the context of the National Football League (NFL). Specifically, we assess whether there is a relationship between pre-NFL arrests and arrests while playing in the NFL. Using data on NFL arrestees coupled with an internet-based search of arrests prior to their joining the NFL, we find that pre-NFL arrests are positive and significantly related to violent (but not total or non-violent) arrests. Also, this pattern of findings was observed for non-white NFL players, but not white players. Limitations, future research directions, and policy implications are highlighted.     

The Problem on Predicting the Outcomes of National Football League Games and Other Phenomena of Equivalent Interest

Attempts to successfully predict the point spread of National Football League games are viewed from the perspective of classical measurement theory. The hypothesis under investigation asserted that one factor limiting the valid predictions of the number of points scored by each team during games is the low levels of reliability inherent in the potential predictor variables. Data for all 28 teams of the NFL were collected for each of the 16 weeks of the regularly scheduled 1978-79 and 1979-80 seasons. Specific measures investigated included the number of points scored, the number of points yielded, the number of yards gained, and the number of yards yielded. These variables were then analyzed via Cronbach's alpha coefficient and other methods of assessing reliability. Results indicated that the a priori expectation of limited reliabilities was supported. The study discusses the implications of these results on traditional prediction strategies for both football specifically and psychological research in general, and offers an alternative approach to forecasting pro football games.     

The Smart System 1: evidence for the intuitive nature of correct responding on the bat-and-ball problem

Influential work on reasoning and decision-making has popularised the idea that sound reasoning requires correction of fast, intuitive thought processes by slower and more demanding deliberation. We present seven studies that question this corrective view of human thinking. We focused on the very problem that has been widely featured as the paradigmatic illustration of the corrective view, the well-known bat-and-ball problem. A two-response paradigm in which people were required to give an initial response under time pressure and cognitive load allowed us to identify the presumed intuitive response that preceded the final response given after deliberation. Across our studies, we observe that correct final responses are often non-corrective in nature. Many reasoners who manage to answer the bat-and-ball problem correctly after deliberation already solved it correctly when they reasoned under conditions that minimised deliberation in the initial response phase. This suggests that sound bat-and-ball reasoners do not necessarily need to deliberate to correct their intuitions; their intuitions are often already correct. Pace the corrective view, findings suggest that in these cases, they deliberate to verify correct intuitive insights.     

Examining the home advantage in the National Hockey League: Comparisons among regulation,overtime, and the shootout

ObjectivesTo investigate the magnitude of the home advantage in the National Hockey League (NHL) as games proceeded from regulation, to overtime, to the shootout, while adjusting for team quality.DesignArchival.MethodBinary logistic regression analyses were conducted using data from the 2005–2006 through 2013–2014 NHL seasons (N = 10,534 games) to compare home teams’ odds of winning in regulation, overtime, and the shootout.ResultsCompared to games decided in regulation, higher quality home teams' odds of winning were slightly lower when games concluded in either overtime or the shootout. Further, regardless of team quality, home teams’ odds of winning were moderately lower when games concluded in the shootout rather than overtime.ConclusionsThe shootout may affect home team players' psychological and behavioural states, generally resulting in a decrease in home teams’ odds of winning in the shootout relative to overtime.     

The Lost Voice: How Libertarianism and Consumerism Obliterate the Need for a Relational Ethics in the National Health Care Service

This article analyzes the contribution Christian ethics mightbe able to make to the ethical debate on policy and caregivingin health and social care in the United Kingdom. The articledeals particularly with the concepts of solidarity and subsidiaritywhich are essential in Christian social ethics and health careethics, and which may be relevant for the ethical debate onhealth and social caregiving in the United Kingdom. An importantargument in the article is that utilitarian and market-drivenpolicies in the National Health Service (NHS) and the socialcare system have marginalized the position of the elderly andhave seriously impoverished the quality of care for the elderly.The neglect of the elderly and other vulnerable groups is alsothe result of widespread consumerist attitudes among patientsand of libertarian models of noninterference which are affirmedby a public ethos of self-sufficiency and counter-dependency.Those who need care dare not make their need known to othersand ask for help, while simultaneously those who could helpare so intimidated by the public affirmation of privacy andnegative rights that they do not dare to offer help except ifthis is explicitly demanded. This distant and standoffish attitudeis in an important way responsible for the fact that the voiceof those in need is altogether lost to the public forum. Christianethics puts much emphasis on responsibility and solidarity withthe needy other but is not able to have much impact on the deliveryof care in a secularized society and health care system likethe NHS. Nonetheless, Christianity still has a powerful andrespected voice, by speaking up for those who cannot speak forthemselves, such as the elderly and the handicapped. Christianscan find allies in the ethics of care and other relational approachesin health care ethics in order to combat libertarianism, consumerism,and utilitarianism.     

The National Research Council Report on the Prevention of Reading Difficulties in Young Children and the Process of Dubitation

The author examines two significant issues, the adjudication of evidence and the architecture of instruction in the context of research on beginning reading. In particular, he reflects on his participation as a member of the National Research Council's committee that published the recent report entitled Preventing Reading Difficulties in Young Children (1998). The National Academy of Sciences panel of experts process is contrasted with a more explicit process for codifying scientific evidence and including quantitative experimental research as the primary source of evidence. In addition, the author argues for the importance of attending to the architecture of instruction in beginning reading.     

对“医疗服务商品和市场”存在客观性和必然性的理性思考——兼评《对中国医疗卫生体制改革的评价与建议》

针对国务院发展研究中心课题组发表的《对中国医疗卫生体制改革的评价与建议》提出的卫生改革带来“问题的根源在于商业化、市场化的走向违背了医疗卫生事业发展的基本规律。”提出“医疗服务商品”、“医疗服务市场”的存在是客观的,并通过反驳《评价与建议》提出的四对矛盾,提出“医疗服务商品”、“医疗服务市场”的存在也是必然的,最后分析了所谓“卫生改革失败”的真正原因。     

Changes over time in the black–white difference on mental tests: Evidence from the children of the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth

Data for three Peabody achievement tests and for the Peabody picture vocabulary test administered to children of women in the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that the black–white difference did not diminish for this sample of children born from the mid 1970s through the mid 1990s. This finding persists after entering covariates for the child's age and family background variables. It is robust across alternative samples and specifications of the model. The analysis supplements other evidence that shows no narrowing of the black–white difference in academic achievement tests since the late 1980s and is inconsistent with recent evidence that narrowing occurred in IQ standardizations during the same period. A hypothesis for reconciling this inconsistency is proposed.     

Determining Risk in Pediatric Research with No Prospect of Direct Benefit: Time for a National Consensus on the Interpretation of Federal Regulations

United States federal regulations for pediatric research with no prospect of direct benefit restrict institutional review board (IRB) approval to procedures presenting: 1) no more than “minimal risk” (§ 45CFR46.404); or 2) no more than a “minor increase over minimal risk” if the research is commensurate with the subjects' previous or expected experiences and intended to gain vitally important information about the child's disorder or condition (§ 45CFR46.406) (DHHS 2001). During the 25 years since their adoption, these regulations have helped IRBs balance subject protections with the pursuit of scientific knowledge to advance children's welfare. At the same time, inconsistency in IRB application of these regulations to pediatric protocols has been widespread, in part because of the ambiguity of the regulatory language. During the past decade, three federally-charged committees have addressed these ambiguities: 1) the National Human Research Protections Advisory Committee (NHRPAC) (Washington, DC), 2) the Institute of Medicine (IOM) Committee on the Ethical Conduct of Clinical Research Involving Children (Washington, DC); and 3) the United States Department of Health and Human Services Secretary's Advisory Committee for Human Research Protections (SACHRP) (Washington, DC). The committees have reached similar conclusions on interpretation of language within regulations § § 45CFR46.404 and 406; these conclusions are remarkably consistent with recent international recommendations and those of the original National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research (1977) National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research. 1977. Report and recommendations: Research involving children, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.  [Google Scholar] report from which current regulations are based. Drawing on the committees' public reports, this article identifies the ethical issues posed by ambiguities in regulatory language, summarizes the committees' deliberations, and calls for a national consensus on recommended criteria.