A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating

Received academic wisdom holds that human judgment is characterized by unrealistic optimism, the tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events and overestimate the likelihood of positive events. With recent questions being raised over the degree to which the majority of this research genuinely demonstrates optimism, attention to possible mechanisms generating such a bias becomes ever more important. New studies have now claimed that unrealistic optimism emerges as a result of biased belief updating with distinctive neural correlates in the brain. On a behavioral level, these studies suggest that, for negative events, desirable information is incorporated into personal risk estimates to a greater degree than undesirable information (resulting in a more optimistic outlook). However, using task analyses, simulations, and experiments we demonstrate that this pattern of results is a statistical artifact. In contrast with previous work, we examined participants’ use of new information with reference to the normative, Bayesian standard. Simulations reveal the fundamental difficulties that would need to be overcome by any robust test of optimistic updating. No such test presently exists, so that the best one can presently do is perform analyses with a number of techniques, all of which have important weaknesses. Applying these analyses to five experiments shows no evidence of optimistic updating. These results clarify the difficulties involved in studying human ‘bias’ and cast additional doubt over the status of optimism as a fundamental characteristic of healthy cognition.     

Nanoethics: From utopian dreams and apocalyptic nightmares towards a more balanced view

Nanotechnology is a swiftly developing field of technology that is believed to have the potential of great upsides and excessive downsides. In the ethical debate there has been a strong tendency to strongly focus on either the first or the latter. As a consequence ethical assessments of nanotechnology tend to radically diverge. Optimistic visionaries predict truly utopian states of affairs. Pessimistic thinkers present all manner of apocalyptic visions. Whereas the utopian views follow from one-sidedly focusing on the potential benefits of nanotechnology, the apocalyptic perspectives result from giving exclusive attention to possible worst-case scenarios. These radically opposing evaluations hold the risk of conflicts and unwanted backlashes. Furthermore, many of these drastic views are based on simplified and outdated visions of a nanotechnology dominated by self-replicating assemblers and nanomachines. Hence, the present state of the ethical debate on nanotechnology calls for the development of more balanced and better-informed assessments. As a first step in this direction this contribution presents a new method of framing the ethical debate on nanotechnology. Thus, the focus of this paper is on methodology, not on normative analysis.     

Medical professionalism: a tale of two doctors

The AMA's social media guidelines provide physicians with some basic rules for maintaining professional boundaries when engaging in online activities. Left unanswered are questions about how these guidelines are to be implemented by physicians of different generations. By examining the issues of privacy and technological skill through the eyes of digital natives and digital immigrants, the challenges associated with medical e-professionalism become clear.     

Optimists or optimistic: Replication of a taxometric study on optimism

Hope and optimism are variants of individual differences regarding positive expectancies for the future. Previous literature describes the relationship of hope and optimism to various outcomes such as psychological adjustment, achievement, problem solving, and health-related concerns; however, few studies investigate its latent structure. Eichner, Kwon, and Marcus (2014) explore optimism’s latent structure through taxometric procedures and provide support for a dimensional construct. In light of recent debate over the replicability of scientific findings, the present study aimed to replicate these findings in an independent sample. Taxometric analyses are consistent with the original study, providing further support for the dimensional latent structure of optimism.     

The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.     

Interference with spatial working memory: An eye movement is more than a shift of attention

In the present experiments, we examined whether shifts of attention selectively interfere with the maintenance of both verbal and spatial information in working memory and whether the interference produced by eye movements is due to the attention shifts that accompany them. In Experiment 1, subjects performed either a spatial or a verbal working memory task, along with a secondary task requiring fixation or a secondary task requiring shifts of attention. The results indicated that attention shifts interfered with spatial, butnot with verbal, working memory, suggesting that the interference is specific to processes within the visuospatial sketchpad. In Experiment 2, subjects performed a primary spatial working memory task, along with a secondary task requiring fixation, an eye movement, or an attention shift executed in the absence of an eye movement. The results indicated that both eye movements and attention shifts interfered with spatial working memory. Eye movements interfered to a much greater extent than shifts of attention, however, suggesting that eye movements may contribute a unique source of interference, over and above the interference produced by the attention shifts that accompany them.     

Rosamond Rhodes: The trusted doctor: medical ethics and professionalism

Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics -     

The depression gender gap: a view through a biocultural filter

That women, compared with men, are more prone to become "depressed" has been known for decades. The etiology of the depression gender gap has been a source of much discussion, with the bulk occurring within the medical model. As a complement to--rather than a competitor with--such discussion, the depression gender gap is analyzed through a biocultural lens wherein the evolutionary history of Homo sapiens becomes part of the frame of reference. Given that a "constant" is difficult to explain by the use of "variables," the very consistent 2:1 gender ratio of female to male (rates of) depression is difficult to explain by referring to cultural parameters, which are variable. It is more parsimonious to suggest that a constant becomes a better candidate to explain another constant. The constant used in this exercise is some portion of the genetic package that subtends the species Homo sapiens; in other words, everyone on the planet is human. The authors argue that the basal dynamic of H. Fisher's (1983) sex contract is a useful analytical tool in examining the contemporary gender gap in depression. They suggest that the germane clause of the sex contract is the use of psychological immobilization as an effective social instrument.